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Biodiversity: Who cares? Which do you like better? A B Which do you like better? A B Which do you like better? A B Which do you like better? A B Which do you like better? A B Which do you like better? A B Which do you like better? A B What do you think biodiversity means? Biodiversity What does “Bio” mean? Bio = Biodiversity What does “Diversity” mean? Diversity = Variety Biodiversity is the variety of life on Earth and the essential interdependence of all living things • Scientists have identified more than 2 million species. Tens of millions -- remain unknown •The tremendous variety of life on Earth is made possible by complex interactions among all living things including microscopic species like algae and mites. There are 3 components of biodiversity 1. Diversity of genes Chihuahuas, beagles, and rottweilers are all dogs—but they're not the same because their genes are different. Chihuahua Beagle Rottweilers There are 3 components of biodiversity Diversity of species For example, monkeys, dragonflies, and meadow beauties are all different species. Saki Monkey Golden Skimmer Meadow Beauty There are 3 components of biodiversity Variety of ecosystems Prairies, Ponds, and tropical rain forests are all ecosystems. Each one is different, with its own set of species living in it. Paines Prairie Florida Sand hill Pond Hoh Rain Forest Which is more diverse? A B Which is more diverse? A B Which is more diverse? A B Which is more diverse? A B Which has more cultural diversity? A B Which has more biodiversity? A B Which has more biodiversity? A B Biodiversity has Intrinsic Value Intrinsic Value = Something that has value in and of itself Biodiversity also has utilitarian Value Utilitarian Value = the value something has as a means to another’s end. Utilitarian values include: • Goods • Services • Information What do we get from biodiversity? Oxygen Food Clean Water Medicine Aesthetics Ideas Should we be concerned about biodiversity? What we know: The Earth is losing species at an alarming rate Some scientists estimate that as many as 3 species per hour are going extinct and 20,000 extinctions occur each year. when species of plants and animals go extinct, many other species are affected. Threats to biodiversity Habitat destruction Pollution Species Introductions Global Climate Change Exploitation Climate Change: Fitting the pieces together The topic of climate change is like a puzzle with many different pieces—oceans, the atmosphere, ecosystems, polar ice, natural and human influences. Scientists have been working on this puzzle for more than a century, and while there are still gaps in our knowledge, most experts feel we have the puzzle is complete enough to show that human activities are having an adverse effect on our planet. This talks looks at many of those puzzle pieces, the evidence behind them, and the conclusions we can draw from them. Outline What changes climate? Is it real? How do we know? Why should we care? How sure are scientists? What next—what can we do? What changes climate? Changes in: Sun’s output Earth’s orbit Drifting continents Volcanic eruptions Greenhouse gases Scientists have a good understanding of what has changed earth’s climate in the past: • Incoming solar radiation is the main climate driver. Its energy output increased about 0.1% from 1750 to 1950, increasing temperatures by 0.2°F (0.1°C) in the first part of the 20th century. But since 1979, when we began taking measurements from space, the data show no long-term change in total solar energy, even though Earth has been warming. • Repetitive cycles in Earth’s orbit that occur over tens of thousands of years can influence the angle and timing of sunlight. •In the distant past, drifting continents make a big difference in climate over millions of years by changing ice caps at the poles and by altering ocean currents, which transport heat and cold throughout the ocean depths. •Huge volcanic eruptions can cool Earth by injecting ash and tiny particles into the stratosphere. •Changes in the concentration of greenhouse gases, which occur both naturally and as a result of human activities, also influence Earth’s climate “Greenhouse Increasing greenhouse gases trap moreeffect” heat Greenhouse gases Nitrous oxide Carbon dioxide Methane Water Sulfur hexafluoride CO2 comes from a variety of sources. For example, plants take up carbon dioxide in the air to make wood, stems, and leaves, and then release it back into the air when the leaves fall or the plants die. The concern today is that fossil fuel use is putting huge amounts of CO2 in the atmosphere at a rate faster than the climate system can adapt to. Certainly, past temperatures past have been higher (and lower) than today, and CO2 concentrations have also varied. Large global swings were probably caused by such things as changes in Earth’s orbit, which changed the distribution of sunlight over the planet. When this caused warming, more CO2 and other greenhouse gases were released, producing additional warming. Could the warming be natural? Earth is getting warmer by virtually every measure we know, and the temperature has been well above normal for more than 25 years. Although increases of 1.0-1.6°F (0.6-0.9°C) over the last century or so may not sound very threatening, remember that’s a global average. The warming is stronger over land than over oceans and in the higher latitudes than in the tropics. Is it real? Snow and ice reflect the sun’s energy back to space. Without this white cover, more water can evaporate into the atmosphere where it acts as a greenhouse gas, and the ground absorbs more heat. Snow and ice are melting at rates unseen for thousands of years. In Glacier National Park, for example, there were 150 glaciers in 1850. Today, there are 26. Effects: Snow and ice Grinnell Glacier, Glacier National Park 1900 and 2008 More water vapor held by a warmer atmosphere also leads to heavier rains and more snowfall. Intense precipitation over the U.S. has increased 20% over the last century. Effects on precipitation Increased warmth has also affected living things. For example, the Japanese keep very detailed records on the blossoming of their Tokyo cherry trees, so they know they are blooming 5 days earlier on average than they were 50 years ago. Effects on ecosystems Scientists learn about the past climate conditions from such things as tree ring analysis, fossil evidence, and analysis of patterns and chemical composition in coral skeletons and ice cores. How do we know? Present day observations We know about the present changes from observations taken at the surface and in the atmosphere. [Image 1] The main tool for both past and present climate analyses are computer climate models. Much like the models used to forecast weather, climate models simulate the climate system with a 3-dimensional grid that extends through the land, ocean, and atmosphere. The grid may have 10 to 60 different levels in the atmosphere and surface grid spacings of about 60 by 90 miles (100 by 150 km)—the size of Connecticut. The models perform trillions of calculations that describe changes in many climate factors in the grid. [click, Image 2] The models project possible climates based on scenarios that cover a range of assumptions about global population, greenhouse gas emissions, technologies, fuel sources, etc. The model results provide a range of possible impacts based on these assumptions. Computer models [Image 1] A common critique of climate predictions is, “If weather model forecasts aren’t reliable more than a week out, how can models predict climate decades in the future?” While weather and climate models are based on similar physics, they are not predicting the same thing. Weather forecasts look at the day-to-day changes on a local level, and subtle chaotic atmospheric variations make short-term weather forecasts difficult beyond 8-10 days. [click, Image 2] Climate predictions are focused on longer-term influences of the sun, oceans, land, and ice on the atmosphere. Instead of predicting a temperature at a particular place at a particular hour, climate modules project an average temperature over a year or longer in a large region or over the entire globe. Aspen, CO Forecast: Partly cloudy today High : 28°F Low: 13°F Increasing clouds over night. Colder tomorrow. Climate models are not only used to look at how climate might change, they’re also used to figure out WHY it’s changing. When models are run with only natural influences from the sun and volcanic eruptions, they say that during the latter half of the 20th century, we would have expected little change from normal conditions (the blue line). Only the addition of human emissions (greenhouse gases, sulfates, and ozone) produce the model results in red that most closely reproduce the black line of actual observations. Why should we care? Global average temperatures are expected to increase by about 2-13°F (1-7°C) by the end of the century. That may not sound like a lot, so what’s the big deal? The problem is that small changes in global average temperature can lead to really large changes in the environment. Let’s look at some of the expected changes. [Image 1] There will always be natural variability, and some places and some years will be warmer or cooler than average. In general, however, summers will get hotter, not only because of higher temperatures but also because humidities will increase. That means that heat waves, like the one that killed 35,000 people in Europe in 2003, will become more common. [click, Image 2] On the plus side, winters will be warmer in many places, reducing heating bills. And the number of days with frosts is likely to decrease. U.K.: Train rails buckle Germany: Lowest river levels this century France: >14,000 deaths Switzerland: Melting glaciers, avalanches Portugal: Forest fires 2003 European Heat Wave Sea-level rise projections : a few inches to a few feet •2 ft: U.S. would lose 10,000 square miles •3 ft: Would inundate Miami •Affects erosion, loss of wetlands, freshwater supplies •Half of the world’s population lives along coasts •Big question: Ice sheets The oceans will continue their rise in the coming century. The IPCC’s best estimates range from a few inches to a few feet by 2100. If the rise is 2 feet, the US could lose 10,000 square miles, If they rise three, they will inundate Miami and most of coastal Florida. Sea-level rise also increases coastal erosion and the loss of coastal wetlands, and saltwater spoils freshwater drinking supplies. Coastal populations become even more vulnerable to storm surge and flooding. Considering that half of the world’s population lives near coasts, sea-level rise is a serious concern. [Image 1] A warming planet means continuing changes in its ecosystems. As the oceans absorb more carbon dioxide, the chemistry of the ocean changes, putting many sea creatures at risk. The IPCC projects that by 2100 the pH of the ocean will drop to its lowest point in at least 20 million years. [click, Image 2] As temperatures get milder, mosquitoes, ticks, rodents, and other disease carriers will expand their range, particularly in developing countries. Here in the U.S., dengue hemorrhagic fever, a tropical, mosquito-borne disease, hit for the first time in modern times in 2005 in the Lower Rio Grande Valley. How sure are scientists? What don’t we know? • Is there some critical piece of the about climate process we don’t understand? • How and when will our fossil fuel use change? • Will future , yet-to-be-discovered technologies mitigate the problem? • How will changing economics, global population, and political processes affect our ability to tackle the problem? Nothing in science is 100% certain There are no laboratory experiments that can tell us what the future will be—the planet IS the test tube What don’t we know? • Is there some climate process we don’t know about? So far, research over the years has strengthened the conclusion that humans are adversely influencing climate, but scientific knowledge is still evolving We don’t know how things might change in the future, such as • Will alternative energy sources become widely available? How soon? • Will some yet-to-be-discovered technology be able to clean CO2 out of the air? • How will changing economics, global population, and political processes affect our ability to tackle the problem? [Image 1] The International Panel on Climate Change, the group that produces the main reports on climate change, is a scientific intergovernmental body set up by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and by the United Nations Environment Programme in 1988. [click, Image 2] The IPCC process involves hundreds of scientists from about 140 countries, a variety of fields, and a range of views. Their function is to assess the latest peerreviewed literature, [click Image 3] compare different computer model results from various sources, and to achieve consensus about where the weight of the evidence points and where uncertainties lie. And The IPCC Based on the evidence accumulated over the last 40 years, these are some of their main conclusions. The words in red were very carefully chosen to reflect quantifiable estimates. So Very High Confidence and means the statement has at least a 9 out of 10 chance of being correct, Very Likely means the scientists are more than 90% sure, and Likely means they are more than 66% sure. 2007 Conclusions • • • • Warming of the climate system is unequivocal Very high confidence that global average net effect of human activities since 1750 one of warming Human-caused warming over last 30 years has likely had a visible influence on many physical and biological systems Continued GHG emissions at or above current rates would cause further warming and induce many changes in the global climate system during the 21st century that would very likely be larger than those observed during the 20th century.” Consensus? • Do we know enough about the drivers of climate to know what causes change? • Are we underestimating the Earth system’s complexity ? • Can models accurately simulate the complex climate system? •Are there processes that will limit warming naturally? On the other hand… • Arctic sea ice melting faster than predicted. • Fossil fuel emissions exceeded most IPCC projections. • Are assumptions about global energy use are too optimistic? •How quickly can developing countries reduce GHG emissions? • Calculations don’t include unexpected melting in Greenland and Antarctica. What do climate scientists really think? Be an educated consumer IPCC AR4 Synthesis Report (http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-syr.htm) Other organizations: NAS (http://dels.nas.edu/climatechange/) US CCSP (http://www.climatescience.gov/) Look for contrasting opinions Evaluate the source Reducing our greenhouse gas emissions and our use of fossil fuels will not be easy, but it is doable. Here’s how some researchers at Princeton view it. Our current path is toward doubling CO2 emissions in the next 50 years, with even greater increases beyond that. In order to get off this path, we need to find ways to keep [8] emissions constant for the next 50 years and then reduce them during the second half of the century. This would [9] limit atmospheric CO2 to about 570 ppm—still greater than the roughly 380 ppm in the atmosphere today, but enough to avoid the worst predicted consequences. In order to hold carbon emissions constant over the next 50 years, we need to find some combination of ways to cut 8 billion tons of carbon emissions per year. In the graph, the difference between where we are and where we’d like to be forms a triangle with a height of 8 billion tons in 2055. What next—what can we do? What next—what can we do? Produce more fuel-efficient vehicles Reduce vehicle use Improve energy-efficiency in buildings Develop carbon capture and storage processes Triple nuclear power Increase solar power Decrease deforestation/plant forests Improve soil carbon management strategies Here are examples of 8 technologies that could save 8 billion tons, or 8 wedges, of carbon. Some of these we could do right away, while others are based on technologies still being studied, such as capturing and storing carbon. [Details on strategies: •Efficient vehicles: Double car fuel efficiency in 2055 from 30 miles per gallon (mpg) to 60 mpg •Reduced vehicle use: Halve the miles traveled by the world’s cars in 2055 •Efficient buildings: Cut emissions by 25% in all buildings •CCS electricity: Capture and store carbon from 800 large coal power plants or 1600 large natural gas power plants •Triple the world’s current nuclear capacity •Solar electricity: Increase solar capacity 700 times •Forest storage: Halve global deforestation and double forest planting in 50 years •Soil storage: Apply carbon management strategies to all of the world’s farm fields] This list represents only some of the possible strategies, but choosing strategies will not be easy. However, the longer we wait to reduce emissions, the higher the target will need to be, and the more adaptation will be necessary. In 2004, when the wedges concept was first introduced, the target was only 7 billion tons. Individual actions Use mass transit, bike, walk, roller skate Buy water-saving appliances and toilets; installing low-flow shower heads. Tune up your furnace Caulk, weatherstrip, insulate, and replace old windows Unplug appliances or plug into a power strip and switch it off Buy products with a U.S. EPA Energy Star label Video How Does Everything Fit? Click the image to play the video segment.