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GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBAL CLIMATE ISSUES Earth-Based Climate Change ◦ Milankovitch Cycles ◦ Volcanic Eruptions ◦ ENSO Anthropogenic Climate Change ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦ Acid Rain Greenhouse Effect Global Warming Ozone Depletion MILANKOVITCH CYCLES Earth’s spin wobbles Earth’s elliptical orbit lengthens & shortens every 100,000 years Earth’s angle of tilt fluctuates & wobbles over a 26,000 year period Shift exposes different latitudes to different amounts of sunlight May be responsible for shifts in climate over the centuries VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS Particulate matter from volcanoes blocks sun’s rays and can cause a drop in global temperatures AEROSOL EFFECT Particulate matter (aerosols) block sun’s rays & cool Earth EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLAION (ENSO) El Niño describes abnormal oceanic and atmospheric conditions. When the Trade Winds falter, warm water piles up in the western Pacific about 1 & ½ feet higher than the average ocean surface ENSO cycles are periodic, occurring every 2-8 years NORMAL Normally, trade winds blow warm surface water toward the western Pacific. This causes upwelling in the eastern Pacific. 8 EL NIÑO 10 RESULTS OF ENSO Warm water & moisture brought to South America Cooler jet stream brings rains to Central & North America More ppt in western US & Gulf region Normally moist areas in Australia, Indonesia, Southeast experience drought, crop failure & fires ENSO Tree ring, ice cap and coral reef data indicate events becoming more frequent La Nina when an El Nino not taking place Oscillation between two called El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) ACID RAIN Leaches metals (mercury & cadmium) toxic to aquatic species & plants Changes pH which can change species present Leaches nutrients from soils Damage to cells Increases nitrates & nitrite nutrients Damaged plants more susceptible to pathogens & insects synergistically (more pathogens & pests spread to other organisms easier) Sources of acid deposition Originates from burning fossil fuels that release sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides ◦ These compounds react with water to form sulfuric and nitric acids Effects of acid deposition Nutrients are leached from topsoil Soil chemistry is changed Metal ions (aluminum, zinc, etc.) are converted into soluble forms that pollute water Widespread tree mortality Affects surface water and kills fish Damages agricultural crops Erodes stone buildings, corrodes cars, erases writing on tombstones pH of precipitation in the U.S. Many regions of acidification are downwind of major sources of pollution GREENHOUSE EFFECT 1/3 of solar radiation is reflected back to space Absorbed radiation is converted to lowenergy long wavelength EMR Under normal conditions long-wavelength EMR emitted back to space Certain molecules in the air absorb the radiation and convert it to heat THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT Absorb infrared radiation H2O, CO2, CH4,CFCs, NOx ◦ CO2 largest culprit From burning fossil fuels Carbon dioxide is of primary concern Not the most potent greenhouse gas (GHG), but it is extremely abundant ◦ The major contributor to global warming Human activities have boosted atmospheric concentrations from 280 parts per million (ppm) to 383 ppm ◦ To their highest levels in more than 650,000 years Other greenhouse gases add to warming Methane = fossil fuel deposits, livestock, landfills, and crops such as rice Nitrous oxide = feedlots, chemical manufacturing plants, auto emissions, and synthetic nitrogen fertilizers Ozone = risen due to photochemical smog Halocarbon gases (CFCs) = are declining due to the Montreal Protocol Water vapor = the most abundant greenhouse gas and contributes most to the greenhouse effect ◦ Could increase cloudiness, which might slow global warming by reflecting more solar radiation back into space U.S. emissions of major greenhouse gases Electricity generation A coal-fired, electricitygenerating power plant Largest source of U.S. CO2 emissions Two ways to reduce fossil fuel use: conservation and efficiency ◦ Arise from technology and individual choices ◦ Replacing worn-down appliances with newer models, lifestyle choices ◦ Use fewer greenhouse-gas-producing products Transportation 2nd largest U.S. greenhouse gas source The typical automobile is highly inefficient Ways to help: ◦ Technology: make vehicles more fuel-efficient, hybrid cars ◦ Drive less and use public transportation ◦ Public transportation is the most effective way to conserve energy, reduce pollution ◦ Live nearer your workplace, so you can bike or walk What causes levels of CO2 to increase? Burned fossil fuels in our homes, factories, and automobiles ◦ Transfers large amounts of carbon dioxide from lithospheric reservoirs into the atmosphere main reason atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations have increased so dramatically Deforestation has contributed to rising atmospheric CO2 concentration ◦ Forests serve as sinks for recently active carbon ◦ Their removal reduces the biosphere’s ability to absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere Conventional cars are inefficient Efficiency of Some Common Devices Device Efficiency (%) Dry-cell flashlight battery Home gas furnace Storage battery Home oil furnace Small electric motor Steam power plant Diesel engine High-intensity lamp Automobile engine Fluorescent lamp Incandescent lamp 90 85 70 65 62 38 38 32 25 22 4 GLOBAL WARMING An increase in Earth’s average surface temperature GLOBAL WARMING An increase in Earth’s average surface temperature Direct atmospheric sampling tells us about the present Trends in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide show that concentrations have increased from 315 ppm in 1955 to 383 ppm in 2010 EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING Melting Arctic & Antarctic ice caps ◦ Increases sea levels & methane ◦ Flood major population centers Alpine glaciers melting ◦ Decreased freshwater Spread of disease-carrying vectors Alteration of major biotic factors ◦ Organisms may not be able to survive EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING Bleaching of coral reefs Melting of permafrost in tundra biomes ◦ Damage structures ◦ Release methane Release of CO2 when peat warms Oceans evaporate causing more energetic storms Models help us understand climate Coupled general circulation model (climate models) = programs that combine what is known about atmospheric circulation, ocean circulation, atmosphere-ocean interactions, and feedback mechanisms to simulate climate processes ◦ These models are becoming more reliable in predicting climate change KOYOTO PROTOCOL The Kyoto Protocol is an international agreement linked to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), which commits its Parties by setting internationally binding emission reduction targets. The Kyoto Protocol was adopted in Kyoto, Japan, on 11 December 1997 This treaty took effect in 2005, after Russia became the 127th nation to ratify it The Kyoto Protocol seeks to limit emissions The Kyoto Protocol mandates that, between 2008-2012, signatory nations must reduce emissions of six GHGs to levels below those of 1990 Parties committed to reduce GHG emissions by at least 18 percent below 1990 levels in the eight-year period from 2013 to 2020 192 parties have ratified the protocol. The Untied States has not; it dropped out in 2001. ◦ The United States will not ratify the Kyoto Protocol because it requires industrialized nations to reduce emissions, but it does not require the same of rapidly industrializing nations such as China and India Businesses in industrialized nations feel they have more to lose economically from restrictions Carbon offsets are in vogue Emissions trading programs allow participants who cannot or will not reduce their emissions to use carbon offsets instead Carbon offset = a voluntary payment to another entity intended to enable that entity to reduce the greenhouse emissions that one is unable or unwilling to reduce oneself ◦ Becoming popular among utilities, businesses, universities, governments, and individuals trying to achieve carbonneutrality, where no net carbon is emitted Carbon offsets fall short ◦ A lack of oversight to make sure that the offset money accomplishes what it is intended for IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ◦ Assesses the scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant for the understanding of the risk of human-induced climate change OZONE DEPLETION First reported in 1985 Ozone provides a shield from UV radiation Ice crystals in Antarctic bring CFCs and O3 together Most likely culprit CFCs ◦ CFCs are persistent catalysts and are not used up in the reaction Synthetic chemicals deplete stratospheric ozone Ozone layer = ozone in the lower stratosphere ◦ 12 ppm concentrations effectively block incoming damaging ultraviolet radiation Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) = chemicals that attack ozone ◦ 1 million metric tons/year were produced ◦ Releases chlorine atoms that split ozone The hole in the ozone Ozone hole = ozone levels over Antarctica had declined by 40-60% ◦ Depletion also in the Arctic and globally ◦ Causes skin cancer, harms crops and decreases ocean productivity The Montreal Protocol addressed ozone depletion Montreal Protocol = 180 nations agreed to cut CFC production in half ◦ Follow-up agreements deepened cuts, advanced timetables and addresses other ozone-depleting chemicals ◦ Today, production and use of ozone-depleting chemicals has decreased 95% ◦ The ozone layer is beginning to recover Challenges still face us ◦ CFCs will remain in the stratosphere for a long time ◦ Nations can ask for exemptions to the ban The Montreal Protocol is a success Considered the biggest environmental success story ◦ Policymakers included industry in helping solve the problem ◦ Implementation of the plan allowed an adaptive management strategy that changed strategies in response to new scientific data, technological advances, and economic figures The Montreal Protocol can serve as a model for international environmental cooperation WEATHER & POLLUTION Grasshopper Effect – net transfer of pollutants from milder climates to cooler climates ◦ Toxins taken up in warmer climates (more soluble) transported to cooler climates (convection) and released with or without precipitation (less soluble in cold)