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Toward Sustainability:
Does Science Matter?
William E. Rees, PhD, FRSC
UBC School of Community and Regional Planning
24 October 2008
Starting Premise
“...man today is
in flight from
thinking.”
(Martin Heidegger, Discourse on Thinking)
Real-World Context: The (Worsening)
Scientific Consensus
 “We the undersigned, senior members of the world’s
scientific community, hereby warn all humanity… A great
change in our stewardship of the earth and the life
on it is required if vast human misery is to be
avoided and our global home on this planet is not to
be irretrievably mutilated.”
(UCS, World Scientists’ Warning to Humanity 1992)
 “At the heart of this assessment is a stark warning.
Human activity is putting such a strain on the natural
functions of the Earth that the ability of the planet’s
ecosystems to sustain future generations can no
longer be taken for granted.”
(MEA, Living Beyond Our Means 2005)
The Geo-Political Dimension
The Age of Consequences (November 2007).
Washington, Center for Strategic and International Studies
 “We predict an [inevitable] scenario in which
people and nations are threatened by massive food
and water shortages, devastating natural disasters
and deadly disease outbreaks” (John Podesta, contributing
author).
 Rich countries could “go through a 30-year process
of kicking people away from the lifeboat” as the
world’s poorest face the worst environmental
consequences” (Leon Fuerth, contributing author).
Climate Change Summary
(as of Oct 2007)
 Temperatures are now within ≈1 C° of the maximum
temperature of the past million years.
 It is now “very unlikely” (≤ 10%) that the world can
avoid a potentially catastrophic mean global
temperature increase of 2 C°
 Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are now growing
more rapidly than “business-as-usual”, the most
pessimistic of the IPCC scenarios. (Increases are
35% higher than expected since 2000.)
 Some warming has been offset by cooling from other
anthropogenic factors (suspended aerosols). Without
this effect, mean global temperatures would be
even higher.
Unprecedented Losses of Sea Ice In 2007
(almost equalled in 2008)
IPCC Projections: Way Off!
Meltdown: Decades ahead of schedule?
Recent findings turn the screws
“Reframing the climate change challenge in light of post-2000 emission trends”
 To stabilize GHGs at even [a catastrophic] 650
ppmv CO2e, the majority of OECD nations
must begin to make draconian emission
reductions within a decade.
 Unless we can reconcile economic growth with
unprecedented rates of decarbonization (in
excess of 6% per year), this will require a
planned economic recession.
(Anderson and Bows. 2008. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A doi:10.1098/rsta.2008.0138)
P.S. On 23 September, scientist announced the discovery of massive
venting of methane from beneath the Arctic Ocean into the
atmosphere.
Bottom Line: Our best science says that
ours is a World in Overshoot
Human Ecological Footprint
1961-2003
 The human
enterprise already
exceeds global
carrying capacity
by 25-30%.
 On 23 September,
we passed
‘overshoot day’ for
2008.
 For the rest of
the year
humanity will
live by depleting
natural capital.
In this light, what’s the case for intelligent
life on Earth?
 H. sapiens claims unmatched intelligence and unique
capacities for forward planning and the exercise of
moral agency.
 Techno-industrial society is allegedly a scientific and
knowledge-based culture.
 Yet, despite decades of hardening evidence and rising
rhetoric on the risks of global change, no national
government, no prominent international agency, no
corporate leader anywhere has begun to advocate in
public let alone implement the kind of policy responses
that are called forth by the best science available today.
We remain prisoners of the perpetual growth myth. According to
Lawrence Summers
then Chief Economist, World Bank (1991)
 “There are no... limits to the carrying
capacity of the earth that are likely to
bind any time in the foreseeable
future… The idea that we should put
limits on growth because of some
natural limit, is a profound error [with]
staggering social costs.”
The myth is reflected in human
population dynamics
2008 Population: 6.8 billion
The use of fossil fuel beginning in the 19th
Century allowed the explosive growth of the
human enterprise
Continuous growth—population and economic—is an anomaly. The growth spurt that
recent generations take to be normal is the single most abnormal period of human history.
Cause and Effect: An Anomalous Period of
Geometric Growth
During the 20th Century:
 Population quadrupled
 Carbon Dioxide
to 6.3 billion
 Energy use increased 16fold
 Industrial production
grew 40-fold
 Water use increased 9
times
 Fish catches rose by a
factor of 35
emissions increased by
a factor of 17
 Sulphur emissions
increased 13-fold
 Other air pollutants
rose by a factor of 5
 Tropical deforestation
and desertification
accelerated (etc.)
We seem truly “In flight from thinking”
 Most approaches to climate change and
sustainability today are delusional.
 Such vaunted ‘solutions’ as renewable
energy, hybrid cars, green buildings,
smart growth, the new urbanism, green
consumerism, etc., all assume that
salvation resides in maintaining
growth through greater material and
economic efficiency.
Examples: Myth and mass delusion
What have we been
sniffing?
 Gasoline is a powerful
halucinatory drug.
 It’s habitual users will
believe anything to avoid
facing reality.
 Since when is a paltry 36
mpg ‘green’ or remotely
sustainable?
 And the delusions only get
worse….
National Geographic, May 2008
Efficiency alone won’t cut it:
The Jevons effect
“It is a confusion of ideas to
suppose that the economical
use of fuel is equivalent to
diminished consumption. The
very contrary is the truth.”
(Jevons 1865).
This is a ship overloaded with inefficient
autos, appliances, electronic gadgets, etc.
This is ship overloaded with efficient
goods (but sinking just the same and possibly faster)
Corn Ethanol: Substitution as
Fuelish Fantasy
 Does not reduce carbon emissions. This + increased emissions of





other GHGS = increased climate forcing (global warming)
Does not reduce dependence on imported oil
Does not improve the quality of tailpipe gases
Increases rates of soil erosion and air, water, and soil pollution
Increases local scarcity and raises food prices in food importing
countries. (Knowing this, people in rich countries are making a
conscious decision to place fueling their cars ahead of feeding
people in poor countries.)
Displaces soybean production to Brazil, which accelerates
tropical deforestation, further increasing carbon dioxide
emissions and biodiversity loss.
Bio-fuels: Geographically Delusional
 Dedicating all present U.S. corn and
soybean production to biofuels would
meet only 12% of US gasoline demand
and 6% of diesel demand.
 To replace US oil consumption with
biofuels would required 1.4 million sq.mi.
of corn for ethanol and 8.8 million sq. mi.
of soybean for biodiesel.
 Total US cropland 625,000 sq.mi.
Why biomass fuels can make only a
marginal contribution to energy supplies
This does not
include the
massive
carbon
footprint of
the fossil fuel
required to
make the
biofuel
(possibly
equivalent to
the existing
carbon
footprint).
12,000,000
10,000,000
8,000,000
Eco-Footprint
(Sq Miles)
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
0
Total US Cropland (625,000 sq mi)
Cropland needed to substitute ethanol
and biodiesel for oil
Bottom Line: Continued Material Growth
is Unsupportable
To ‘sustain’ just the
present world
population at the
material standards
enjoyed by North
Americans, would
require four
additional Earthlike planets!
Regrettably “Good
planets are hard to
find.”
The Really ‘Inconvenient Truth’: End of
Growth
 “Industrialized world reductions in material
consumption, energy use, and environmental
degradation of over 90% will be required by 2040 to
meet the needs of a growing world population fairly
within the planet’s ecological means” (BCSD 1993; ‘Getting
Eco-Efficient’).
 To avoid a mean global temperature increase above 2 C
degrees, the world must reduce carbon emissions by
90% by 2050” (Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
2006).
 For sustainability with equity, North Americans should
be taking steps to reduce their ecological footprints by
80% to their equitable Earth-share (1.8 gha) (Rees 2006).
Humans display a universal propensity to deny
uncomfortable realities—we actively repress
intelligence and reason
 “The masses have never thirsted after truth. They turn
aside from evidence that is not to their taste, preferring
to deify error, if error seduce them. Whoever can
supply them with illusions is easily their master;
whoever attempts to destroy their illusions is always
their victim” (Gustave Le Bon 1895).
 “For us to maintain our way of living, we must… tell lies
to each other, and especially to ourselves… the lies act
as barriers to truth. These barriers… are necessary
because without them many deplorable acts would
become impossibilities” (D. Jensen 2000).
“Know, my son, with how little wisdom the
world is governed” (Count Axel Oxenstierna of Sweden)
 “Not truth, but error has always
been the chief factor in the
evolution of nations…” (Le Bon 1895).
 “Wooden-headedness, the source
of self deception ...plays a
remarkably large role in
government. It consists in
assessing a situation in terms of
preconceived fixed notions [i.e.,
ideology] while ignoring any
contrary signs. It is acting
according to wish while not
allowing oneself to be deflected by
the facts” (Tuchman 1984).
An Explanatory Cognitive Mechanism
 During individual
development, sensory
experiences and cultural
norms literally shape the
human brain’s synaptic
circuitry in patterns that
reflect and embed those
experiences.
 Subsequently,people seek
out compatible
experiences and, “when
faced with information
that does not agree with
their [preformed]
internal structures, they
deny, discredit,
reinterpret or forget
that information”
(Wexler, 2006).
A Convenient Truth: Income Growth in Rich
Countries Produces Few Gains
 Since 1976, the Canadian
(Siegel 2006)
economy has grown by
130%. GDP per capita is
70% per cent higher.
 There has been no change
in the percentage of the
population in poverty or in
the unemployment rate.
 The absolute numbers of
impoverished and
unemployed has increased.
 Subjective well-being is
constant or declining.
The Gathering Storm
The Good News
• We have the
technology today to
enable a 75%-80%
reduction in energy
and (some) material
consumption while
actually improving
quality of life.
The Bad News
• Yet we do not act.
Privileged elites with
the greatest stake in
the status quo
control the policy
levers. Ordinary
people hold to the
expansionist myth.
Society remains in
eco-paralysis.
“The scientifically necessary is politically
unfeasible but the politically feasible is
scientifically irrelevant.”
Closing Words of the 2007
Tällberg Forum (Sweden)
“Do we know what to do?
Probably yes. Will we do it?
Probably not.”