Download A change in the weather is no reason to get

The following response to Tim Flannery's book, The Weather Makers, was
published in the Sydney Morning Herald on September 28, 2005
A change in the weather is
no reason to get steamed up over gases
Bill Kininmonth
Simplistic science is behind the idea put forward by Tim Flannery and others that man is causing global
warming, writes William Kininmonth.
THE spectre of climate change is certainly with us. In addition to local fluctuations of rainfall patterns that
extend from years to
decades, there is clear evidence that global temperature has been rising and mountain glaciers and polar ice caps
have been diminishing for nearly two centuries.
The El Nino event of 1997-98 affected many millions, yet historical records show that, as early as 1877,
droughts and famine related to an El Nino event were responsible for more than 9million deaths in northern
China and more than 8million in India.
The problem is to identify the cause of recent climate change and to project with confidence its future course. A
range of natural factors affect the Earth's climate, including the changing orbits of the planets around the sun,
fluctuations in the sun's intensity and volcanic activity.
The oceans and atmosphere are fluids in motion and have their own internal variability; the interact and, in
combination, transport enormous quantities of energy from the tropics to the poles.
In his new book, The Weather Makers, Tim Flannery embraces the hypothesis that human activity is causing
dangerous climate change. He calls for urgent action to remove carbon from the energy sector, yet the nexus
between atmospheric carbon dioxide and climate change is not as strong as he would have us believe.
The science linking human activities to climate change is simplistic and his arguments are assisted by the fact
we are in a period of apparent warming. We are in a relatively warm part of the Ice Age cycle that has lasted
more than 8000 years, but temperatures have been higher during this period.
The evidence that the climate system may pass some imagined critical point that leads to runaway global
warming is not convincing. The focus on carbon dioxide as a driver of climate change overlooks the importance
of water vapour as a greenhouse gas and the hydrological cycle's role in regulating the temperatures of our
climate system.
Water vapour is a more powerful greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide and the formation and dissipation of
clouds has a bigger impact on the climate. The hydrological cycle encompasses the evaporation of surface
water, its carriage by the winds, and condensation to form clouds and precipitation. The evaporation of surface
water extracts energy and regulates the surface temperature, especially over the warm tropical forests and
oceans. Condensation of water vapour during the formation of rain and snow releases energy to the atmosphere.
Climate is a complex system for exchange and transport of energy, to balance the excess solar radiation of the
tropics and the deficit over polar regions. Existing computer models are not able to adequately replicate these
essential energy processes, raising serious doubt over their ability to predict future climate.
Our future is one where we will have to adapt to a naturally changing climate. It is a delusion that dangerous
climate events are new and will be averted by reducing carbon dioxide emissions. Australia suffered for nearly a
decade as prolonged drought affected eastern parts leading up to and following Federation. The record daytime
temperatures in Adelaide, Melbourne and Sydney occurred during a heatwave in January 1939. Our climate is
naturally variable and the extremes have always been dangerous.
Global demand for non-renewable fossil fuels will increase their cost and limit their availability. Public attention
to using energy
efficiently and evaluating the list of potential non-carbon and renewable energy sources is to be applauded.
However, a rush to cut carbon emissions to meet Kyoto targets could distort the energy market and adversely
affect economic and social outcomes.
As Flannery points out, many developing countries have relatively lax environmental standards. This is good
reason not to impose international regulations - such as differentiated responsibilities under Kyoto - that could
well shift potentially polluting industries and associated skilled jobs to those countries.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------William Kininmonth, a meteorologist with more than 40 years' experience, headed the National Climate Centre for 12 years. His book,
Climate Change: A Natural Hazard, was published last year.
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