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Climate Impacts and Adaptation
The core text and links to resources for an M-level unit in Climate Impacts and Adaptation,
from the MSc Integrated Environmental Management by Distance Learning
(http://www.bath.ac.uk/iem/).
There are two principal learning objectives for the unit. Specifically, upon completion of the
unit students should be able to:
a) Convince decision-makers in your organisation of the business case to manage the
physical risks and opportunities of climate change. Why do decision-makers in your
organisation need to consider climate change?
b) Develop and implement a rigorous, cost-efficient and continuous process to increase the
resilience of your organisation to the threats, and enhance its ability to take advantage of
the opportunities, of climate change.
This OER includes core text for Section A, focussing on the adaptation imperative, including
the state of climate science, climate change controversies, impacts of climate change and
the available limiting and coping responses.
In studying this unit, the core text acts as a guide to prompt independent study around a
series of focus questions, aiming to create a climate literate student who can make a cogent
case for the climate adaptation imperative. The core text forms part of a series of guided
study activities for the M-level unit, through which students apply new knowledge within
their own professional context. The core text and resources may provide a useful resource
for planning a course of study in this field or act as a guide for self-study in the subject area.
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CLIMATE IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION UNIT
- Learning Outcomes –
Context for the Unit:
The majority of organisations are aware of the threats and opportunities associated with
their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Many are taking into account the impact of existing
and proposed national and international policies on the cost of doing business now and in
the future. Few organisations, however, are considering the threats and opportunities
associated with the physical effects of climate change on their planning processes.
Weather and climate already affect economic activity and everyday life in many ways.
Extreme weather events in recent memory (e.g., windstorms, droughts, floods, heat waves,
etc.) have alerted us to the relative sensitivity of ecosystems, human health, and other manmade systems, such as buildings, industrial processes, energy demand and infrastructure to
current climate conditions. These events also signal the threat posed by projected climate
change. Climate change is anticipated to result in a variety of effects, including changes in
the frequency, intensity or distribution of extreme weather, as well as changes in average
conditions, and increased seasonal variability in temperature and precipitation. Our current
social and economic structures and supporting systems all developed under relatively stable
climate conditions. Similarly, most organisations will have formulated business plans with a
view to current climate conditions. These plans may not, however, be resilient to, or able to
take advantage of, projected changes in future climate conditions.
Understanding how climate conditions are projected to change, and what the implications
are for an organisation like yours, is critical to determining:
1)
Whether, and to what extent, your organisation’s business plans and longer-term
vision are vulnerable to climate change; and in turn
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2)
Whether, when, and how much action is needed to increase the organisation’s
resilience to projected changes in climate, and enhance its ability to take advantage of
any opportunities that may arise.
The answers to these two questions, and the process of deriving them, can be formalised in
an adaptation strategy. An adaptation strategy provides a record of all the research and
stakeholder input used to address the questions, and explains the decision-making process.
Overall Objectives for Unit:
There are two principal learning objectives for the unit. Specifically, upon completion of the
unit you should be able to:
A. Convince decision-makers in your organisation of the business case to manage the
physical risks and opportunities of climate change. Why do decision-makers in your
organisation need to consider climate change?
B. Develop and implement a rigorous, cost-efficient and continuous process to increase
the resilience of your organisation to the threats, and enhance its ability to take
advantage of the opportunities, of climate change.
If you can command these two objectives you will be able to initiate and organise and
development of an adaptation strategy for your organisation.
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Detailed Learning Objectives for Unit Objective A: The Adaptation
Imperative
Principle Learning Objective A:
Upon completion of Sections 1-3 you should be able to:
Convince decision-makers in your organisation of the business case to manage the
physical risks and opportunities of climate change.
While most decision-makers in an organisation will be aware of climate change, and to a
lesser extent its causes, cognisance of the physical effects of a changing climate and
understanding the associated business risks and opportunities, represents a new and
daunting challenge. The varied and uncertain projections of changes in temperature, rainfall
patterns, extreme weather and other effects only make the challenge more formidable.
Decision-makers may therefore be reluctant to allocate staff time and financial resources to
analysing and adapting to the physical effects of climate change. Hence, a critical precursor
to developing an adaptation strategy for your organisation is to convince the “powers that
be” of the case to improve the organisation’s understanding of the potential risks to
business and the importance of taking action to mitigate those risks.
Building the business case for adaptation actions will typically involve convincing key
decision-makers in your organisation that:
o
Human-caused climate change is indeed very real and is happening now;
o
The consequences are potentially significant; and
o
There are things that should be done now to limit or better cope with (i.e., adapt to)
the consequences.
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Hence, if you are to successfully achieve overall learning objective A for the unit, skills and
knowledge must be developed around the following three broad themes.
A.1. The climate science.
A.2. The impacts.
Understanding the problem
A.3. The available responses.
To develop the necessary skills and knowledge to prepare a business case for adaptation, a
number of questions are posed below, organised by each of the three themes. You should
make sure you can comfortably address each question. To this end a variety of “resources”
are provided as a starting point. You are advised to make a list of 3-5 key points in response
to each question. You can draw upon these “key facts” as you prepare your assignment.
For some of the questions you may answer in a general context; however, for others you will
need to develop answers specific to your organisation – i.e., you will need to apply what you
learned from the readings to your organisation.
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A.1. The state of climate science.
Learning Objective A.1. To create a climate-literate student, who understands the
basic principles of Earth’s climate system, including the natural and human-caused
factors that affect it, and who can effectively communicate scientifically credible
information (from observations and computer models) about climate and climate
change.
Improving our resilience to the impacts of climate change depends upon our ability
to understand climate science, as well as our ability to integrate that knowledge into
decisions on environmental, economic and social systems.
a.
What is climate change?
i.
Our climate is influenced by interactions between the following
components of the Earth’s system: the Sun, oceans, atmosphere, clouds,
ice, land and life. What is the greenhouse effect, and how do these
components interact to influence it?
ii.
Climate is not the same thing as weather. What is the difference between
weather and climate? How would you then define climate change?
iii.
Scientific observations indicate that the global climate has changed in the
past, and is changing now. How does the global climate in recent years
differ from that of the past? How has annual and seasonal temperature
changed? How has annual and seasonal precipitation changed?
Long-term changes in annual average temperatures or precipitation are a
consequence of shifts in the overall variability of weather. Droughts, heat
waves, severe rain or wind storms all contribute to the calculation of
averages. Changes in average temperature and precipitation thus almost
inevitably imply more frequent and possibly more intense extreme events.
Knowledge of extremes is important as they often lie outside the range
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within which natural or human systems can cope. Has there been an
observed change in extreme events?
iv.
The magnitude and direction of these changes is not the same at all
locations. How has the climate of your country or region been observed to
change? Remember to consider annual averages, seasonal patterns and
extremes.
v.
The composition of the atmosphere is continuing to change. To what
extent have anthropogenic greenhouse gases – mainly, carbon dioxide changed?
vi.
The climate of the Earth has always varied on all time-scales: from year-toyear; decade-to-decade; and over millions of years. Changes in the gas
composition of the atmosphere are one of the many factors influencing
climate patterns. Is the observed warming over the last half-century due
to changing carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere? Are we
therefore causing climate change?
vii.
If we have indeed caused the observed changes in climate, and we could
somehow stop greenhouse gas emissions and stabilise atmospheric
concentrations of carbon dioxide at current levels, could we avoid any
further climate change, or are we already committed to some degree of
climate change over the next half-century?
viii. Nonetheless, a number of factors suggest atmospheric concentrations of
carbon dioxide will likely continue to rise, for example: about two billion
people in the developing world are expected to aspire to lifestyles that
would increase their energy consumption; the world’s population is
expected to increase by, perhaps, a further two billion during the first half
of the century; and parts of the developed world are still struggling to
decouple economic growth from growth in energy consumption, having
invested huge amounts of capital in existing fossil-fuel based energy
systems.
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Climate patterns will therefore continue to change. How much the climate
will change, however, is unknown, because the exact trajectory of
greenhouse gas emissions into the future remains uncertain. To
accommodate this uncertainty, the climate models used to project
possible global temperature trajectories over the 21st century use
emission scenarios – i.e., “what if” scenarios based on different
technological and socioeconomic assumptions, for example, possible rates
of technological change or growth in world per capita income. The climate
models project a wide range of global mean temperature outcomes (+1.1
to +6.4 C at 2090-2099 relative to 1980-1999), which imply significantly
different levels of climate change. Part of the range stems from
“behavioural uncertainty” re the range of possible future emission
scenarios. The other part is due to “scientific uncertainty” i.e., different
assumed patterns of warming between the climate models for a given
emission scenario.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides
projections of global climate change over the 21st century for a range of
different climate models and emission scenarios. [The IPCC publish
periodic assessments of climate change and its impact on human and
natural ecosystems (1990, 1996, 2001 and 2007 or the First, Second, Third
and Fourth Assessment Reports).]
Projections of climate change at a national or sub-national scale are
ideally what are needed to anticipate and understand the vulnerability of
key natural and human systems, as well as plan for efficient adaptive
responses.
How is the climate of your country or region projected to change over the
21st century? Again, remember to consider annual averages, seasonal
patterns and extremes.
ix.
We mentioned scientific and behavioural uncertainty above. How much
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confidence can we attach to some of the statements being made in the
literature, and what likelihood can we attach to specific projections?
Are these uncertainties too large for the climate change projections to be
of any use in assessing adaptation needs?
b.
What about all the controversies surrounding the climate science. How can we
be sure of what we are being told? How would you counter the claims below?
Are there other controversies re the climate science that need to be countered?
i.
The climate has always changed as a result of natural processes, and this
has nothing to do with human activity. The climate system experiences
natural variability which can lead to periods with hardly any or no warming,
and periods with accelerated warming.
ii.
There is no consensus among climate scientists, and the IPCC is no longer a
credible source of scientific information. This cast doubt on the science of
climate change in general.
iii. The 2000s may have the warmest decade on record, but the warming trend
for global mean surface temperatures from 2000–09 may have been less
pronounced than the warming trend during 1990–99. Global warming has
thus stalled or possibly stopped. We may even be entering a global cooling
trend.
iv. The atmosphere comprises many gases; carbon dioxide represents on a
small part. Water vapour is the most significant greenhouse gas. So, how
carbon dioxide emissions be causing climate change.
v.
The computer models which generate projections of global climate change
are simply not reliable.
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Resources:
American Association for the Advancement of Science et al., 2009, Open letter to Congress,
October 21, 2009. (Available online at http://www.aaas.org/spp/cstc/climateletterfinal.pdf)
Borenstein, S., et al., 2009, AP Impact: Science Not Faked, But Not Pretty, Associated Press, 12
December 2009. (Available online at http://www.sfgate.com/cgibin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2009/12/12/international/i045626S28.DTL)
Borenstein, S., et al., 2009, AP Impact: Statisticians Reject Global Cooling, Associated Press, 26
October 2009. (Available online at http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/33482750/ns/us_newsenvironment/)
Editorial, 2009, Climatologists Under Pressure, Nature, 462 (2009), p. 545. (Available online at
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v462/n7273/full/462545a.html)
Editorial, 2010, Climate of Fear, Nature, 464 (2010), p. 141. (Available online at
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v464/n7286/full/464141a.html)
Defra, 2009, UK Climate Projections (UKCP09), Department for Environment, Food and Rural
Affairs, London, UK. (Available online at http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk/)
Hansen, J., et al., 2010, Current GISS Global Surface Temperature Analysis, draft for comment,
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY. (Available online at
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/paper/gistemp2010_draft0319.pdf)
Harrabin, R., 2010, Harrabin’s Notes: IPCC Under Scrutiny, BBC News, 30 January 2010.
(Available online at http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8488395.stm)
IEMA, 2009, Adapting to Climate Change: A Guide to its Management in Organisations, Best
Practice Series, Volume 13, prepared by UKCIP on behalf of Institute of Environmental
Management and Assessment, Lincoln. [Section 5.]
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IPCC, 2007, Summary for Policymakers, Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis,
Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B.
Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)], Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New
York, NY, US.
Solomon, S., et al., 2007, Technical Summary, Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science
Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen,
M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)], Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, US.
IPCC, 2010, IPCC Statement on the Melting of Himalayan Glaciers, statement, 20 January
2010. (Available online at http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/presentations/himalaya-statement20january2010.pdf)
IPCC, 2010, IPCC Statement on Trends in Disaster Losses, statement, 25 January 2010.
(Available online at http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/presentations/statement_25_01_2010.pdf)
Met Office, 2009, Warming: climate change – the facts, the Met Office, Exeter, UK.
Met Office, 2010, see Chief Scientist, Professor Julia Slingo, explain some of the current
evidence about climate change, the Met Office, Exeter, UK. (Available online at
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climatechange/science/controversy/facts.html)
Met Office, 2010, see Head of Climate Advice, Dr Vicky Pope, explain uncertainty surrounding
climate science, the Met Office, Exeter, UK. (Available online at
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climatechange/science/controversy/uncertainty.html)
Met Office, 2010, the IPCC peer-review process explained, the Met Office, Exeter, UK.
(Available online at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climatechange/science/controversy/peerreview.html)
Met Office, 2010, Dr Peter Stott explains how global-average temperature records work, the
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Met Office, Exeter, UK. (Available online at
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climatechange/science/explained/explained5.html)
Natural Environment Research Council, et al., 2009, Climate science statement from the Met
Office, NERC, and the Royal Society, statement, 24 November 2009. (Available online at
http://www.nerc.ac.uk/press/releases/2009/29-climate.asp)
Richardson, K., et al., 2009, Synthesis report from climate change: global risks, challenges &
decisions, 10–12 March 2009, Copenhagen, second edition, Copenhagen, Denmark: University
of Copenhagen. (Available online at http://climatecongress.ku.dk/pdf/synthesisreport)
Royal Society, 2008, Climate change controversies – a simple guide, the Royal Society,
London, UK.
Summary Learning Outcomes (A.1):
Upon completion of this section you should be able to:
o
Explain the greenhouse effect.
o
Differentiate between weather and climate.
o
Define climate change.
o
Describe how temperature, precipitation patterns and weather extremes globally
and in your region are changing.
o
Clarify the relative contribution of humans and natural factors to these changes.
o
Explain why some climate change this century is unavoidable.
o
Describe how the climate of your region is projected to change over this century.
o
Provide counter arguments to key controversies surrounding climate change, its
causes and projections for the future.
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A.2 The impacts of climate change.
Learning Objective A.2. To identify the main projected impacts of different
degrees of climate change for key sectors and systems in your region, and to
translate those impacts into risks and opportunities facing your organisation’s
core operations, value chain, and the broader economic network to which it is
linked.
Climate change will mean warmer temperatures, which will alter precipitation
patterns, cause snow and ice to melt and sea levels to rise, and may affect the
frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as heat waves, droughts
and storms. We have already begun to experience many of these events and the
associated impacts.
The consequences of climate change for an organisation - for instance, to its
assets or reputation - do not arise directly from changes to climate related
variables and weather patterns per se, but rather from a chain of effects.
Therefore, before one can translate the impacts of climate change into risks and
opportunities for an organisation, it is first necessary to understand relevant
potential impacts.
a.
Coastal zones and low-lying areas.
The melting of ice sheets and glaciers, combined with the thermal expansion of
the oceans as they warm, is causing sea level to rise. Seawater is beginning to
submerge coastal areas and barrier islands, and to contaminate low-lying coastal
fresh water sources. Sea-level rise also increases the risk of flood damage to
property and infrastructure from surges that accompany storms, such as
hurricanes.
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i.
What are the main projected impacts of climate change for coastal zones
and low-lying areas?
Climate model projections suggest that – once certain levels of temperature
change are reached – the negative effects of climate change will significantly
outweigh positive ones. How do the projected impacts change with different
amounts of increase in global average surface temperature during the 21st
century?
ii.
How much confidence can be attached to these impacts occurring in the
future?
b.
Freshwater resources.
Climate plays a crucial role in the global distribution of freshwater resources.
Changing temperature and precipitation patterns will alter the distribution and
availability of freshwater resources, creating an imbalance between demand and
reliable access to water. Winter snowpack and mountain glaciers that provide
water for environmental, industrial and human use are declining as a result of
warmer temperatures.
i.
What are the main projected impacts of climate change for freshwater
resources and their management?
How do the projected impacts change with different amounts of increase in
global average surface temperature during the 21st century?
ii.
How much confidence can be attached to these impacts occurring in the
future?
c.
Human health.
Human health will be affected to different degrees in specific regions of the
world as a result of climate change. The geographical range and incidence of
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climate-sensitive infectious diseases – e.g., malaria, dengue fever, and tick-borne
diseases - will change. Water constrained crop yields, deteriorating air and water
quality, and increased physical hazards in coastal and low-lying areas will
increase health risks. Cold-related deaths may well decrease, but other risks may
rise – e.g., heat-related mortality and morbidity.
i.
What are the main projected impacts of climate change for human health?
How do the projected impacts change with different amounts of increase in
global average surface temperature during the 21st century?
ii.
How much confidence can be attached to these impacts occurring in the
future?
d.
Ecosystems.
Ecosystems, both terrestrial and aquatic, have always been vulnerable to climate
conditions, and will continue to be affected by climate change. Animals, plants,
bacteria, and viruses can migrate to new locations where climate conditions are
favourable. Likewise, infectious diseases and certain species will be able to
invade locations where they could not previously live.
i.
What are the main projected impacts of climate change for ecosystems?
How do the projected impacts change with different amounts of increase in
global average surface temperature during the 21st century?
ii.
How much confidence can be attached to these impacts occurring in the
future?
e.
Industry, human settlements and society
The incidence and / or intensity of extreme weather may increase as a result of
climate change. The number of heat waves experienced annually at specific
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locations may increase substantially, while episodes of severe cold will decrease.
Precipitation events are expected to become more intense in many areas,
although less frequent. In areas where average precipitation is projected to
decrease droughts will be more frequent and more severe.
i.
What are the main projected impacts of climate change for industry, human
settlements and society?
How do the projected impacts change with different amounts of increase in
global average surface temperature during the 21st century?
ii.
How much confidence can be attached to these impacts occurring in the
future?
f.
Agriculture and forestry.
A wide range of climate variables affect crop, livestock and forest productivity,
including maximum and minimum temperatures, growing degree days, length of
growing season, precipitation patterns, drought and frost periods. Climate
conditions also indirectly affect productivity by affecting the viability of pests,
invasive species, weeds and disease. Projected changes in climate conditions
could be beneficial for the production of some crops and varieties of trees, but
may be constrained by the availability of water through rain or irrigation.
Increased risk of fire and windstorms may also threaten forestry.
i.
What are the main projected impacts of climate change for agriculture and
forestry?
How do the projected impacts change with different amounts of increase in
global average surface temperature during the 21st century?
ii.
How much confidence can be attached to these impacts occurring in the
future?
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g.
Not all regions of the Earth will be affected equally by the projected impacts of
climate change. For the region or country most pertinent to your organisation,
what are the main projected impacts of climate change? You may even be able to
identify projected impacts at a sub-national level – for example – in the UK
climate impact studies are available for most English regions and the devolved
administrations in Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales.
h.
Given the global nature of climate change, climate risks and opportunities are
embedded, to some extent, in the “business” of most organisations. The two
main consequences for organisations arise from: (1) the effects of damages and
remediation due to climate change itself; and (2) the effects of exposure to
greenhouse gas emissions control in any regulatory regime to mitigate climate
change. These consequences may give rise to regulatory risk, physical risk,
reputational risk, and competitive risk; and regulatory opportunities, physical
opportunities, reputational opportunities, competitive opportunities, and
technology opportunities.
Distinguish between these various types of climate risks and opportunities facing
organisations. That is, define each type of risk-opportunity.
i.
The physical impacts of climate change may affect your organisation. There are
three categories of broad consequence:  consequences for core operations,
such as production plant, building or sites;  consequences for the value chain;
and  consequences for the wider economy or supporting infrastructure.
These impacts are well illustrated by the ‘Risk Disk’ diagram available from page
13 of: Sussman, F. and J. Freed, 2008, Adapting to climate change: a business
approach, prepared for the PEW Centre on Global Climate Change, Arlington, VA.
[Sections 1-3.] This document is available online at:
http://www.pewclimate.org/docUploads/Business-Adaptation.pdf
Climate change may pose direct physical risks to an organisation’s core
operations. In some cases, however, the risks to the organisation may be
indirect. Even if an enterprise is not directly vulnerable to sea level rise, extremes
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of weather extremes, temperature and precipitation variability, etc., it may be
affected indirectly through climate change-related socio-economic disruptions to
its supply change, or elsewhere in the economy and abroad.
Based on your understanding of the projected impacts of climate change for
those sectors / systems and region(s) most relevant to your organisation, begin
to map out how climate change may affect, both positively and negatively, your
organisation. What are likely to be the main physical risks and opportunities?
Note that this is only a scoping exercise to help you build the business case for
adaptation. A more thorough exploration of the risks and opportunities facing
your organisation will be needed for the formal risk assessment as part of the
adaptation strategy development process (Principle Learning Objective B).
Resources:
Anderson, M. and D. Gardiner, 2006, Managing the Risks and Opportunities of Climate
Change: A Practical Toolkit for Corporate Leaders, Coalition for Environmentally
Responsible Economies (CERES), Boston, MA.
CBI, 2010, Whatever the weather – managing the risks from a changing climate,
Confederation of British Industry, London, UK.
CERES, 2002, Value at Risk: Climate Change and the Future of Governance, report prepared
for the CERES Sustainable Governance Project Report by Innovest Strategic Value Advisors,
Coalition for Environmentally Responsible Economies (CERES), Boston, MA. [Section 4.]
Defra, 2009, UK Climate Projections (UKCP09), Department for Environment, Food and
Rural Affairs, London, UK. (Available online at http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk/)
IEMA, 2009, Adapting to Climate Change: A Guide to its Management in Organisations, Best
Practice Series, Volume 13, prepared by UKCIP on behalf of Institute of Environmental
Management and Assessment, Lincoln. [Section 5.]
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IPCC, 2007, Summary for Policymakers, Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and
Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof,
P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson (eds.)], Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and
New York, NY, US.
Parry, M.L., O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof and Co-authors, 2007, Technical Summary, Climate
Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to
the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
[M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson (eds.)],
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, US.
Met Office, 2009, Warming: climate change – the facts, the Met Office, Exeter, UK.
Richardson, K., et al., 2009, Synthesis report from climate change: global risks, challenges &
decisions, 10–12 March 2009, Copenhagen, second edition, Copenhagen, Denmark:
University of Copenhagen. (Available online at
http://climatecongress.ku.dk/pdf/synthesisreport)
Sussman, F. and J. Freed, 2008, Adapting to climate change: a business approach, prepared
for the PEW Centre on Global Climate Change, Arlington, VA. [Sections 1-3.]
UKCIP, 2010, Work in the UK (regional climate change studies), UK Climate Impacts
Programme, Oxford, UK. (Available online at http://ukcip.org.uk/)
Wellington, F. and A. Sauer, 2005, Framing Climate Risk in Portfolio Management, the
Coalition for Environmentally Responsible Economies (CERES) and the World Resources
Institute (WRI), Washington, DC. [Pages 3-5.]
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Summary Learning Outcomes (A.2):
Upon completion of this section you should be able to:
o
Outline the main projected impacts of different degrees of climate change for key
sectors and systems.
o
Outline the main projected impacts of different degrees of climate change for your
region.
o
Comment on the level of confidence attached to these projections.
o
Distinguish between the various types of climate-related risks and opportunities
facing organisations.
o
Identify the main risks and opportunities facing your organisation’s core operations,
value chain, and broader economic network to which it is linked.
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A.3 Limiting and coping with climate change – the available responses.
Learning Objective A.3. To delineate adaptation from mitigation as a response to
climate change, to develop an understanding of the various types of adaptation
responses, including how uncertainty can be managed by recognising special kinds of
adaptations, and to understand the arguments for a pro-active, planned approach to
adaptation.
We may be able to mitigate climate change or lessen its severity in the longer-term
by reducing greenhouse gas concentrations through activities that reduce
greenhouse gas emissions or enhance carbon sinks. We can also adapt to climate
change by increasing our resilience to its consequences. Actions such as moving to
higher ground to avoid rising sea levels, or planting new crops that will thrive under
new climate conditions represent adaptation options.
a.
Neither mitigation nor adaptation alone can help us avoid all the impacts of
climate change. A portfolio or mix of strategies that includes both mitigation and
adaptation is necessary.
Why are both mitigation and adaptation necessary to effectively manage
climate change impacts? Hint: contrast them as near-term and the longer-term
response strategies, and consider the likely limits of adaptation.
b.
Mitigation is about tackling the causes of climate change – i.e., reducing
concentrations of greenhouse gases in in the atmosphere.
What do we mean by adaptation? Define adaptation.
i.
Adaptation actions are diverse, situation specific and can be classified
according to: timing (anticipatory vs. reactive); scope (short-term vs. longterm); purposefulness (autonomous vs. planned); and adapting agent
(private vs. public).
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Make sure you understand the differences between these various
approaches to adaptation, and can provide examples of each: What is the
difference between anticipatory and reactive adaptation? Between
autonomous and planned adaptation? Between short-term and long-term
adaptation? Between private and public adaptation?
ii.
There are potentially many adaptation actions that could be adopted to
limit or cope with the physical effects of climate change. The Second
Assessment Report of IPCC Working Group II, for example, identified nearly
230 different adaptation actions (IPCC, 1996). Given the very large array of
potential adaptive actions they are often classified into broad groups of
measures – for example, “Building Adaptive Capacity” encompasses
numerous potential adaptation actions, as does “Preventing the Loss”.
What are the main broad categories of adaptation actions? Identify
examples for each category. Note that there is no single correct
classification of adaptation actions in the literature.
iii.
Climate change is a classic case of an uncertain hazard combined with
uncertain (and possibly severe) consequences. The causal chain underlying
the climate change-consequence relationship is extremely complex and
can be highly uncertain. As shown the figure below uncertainty increases
from greenhouse gas emissions, to global climate change, to changes in
regional climate and weather, to physical effects on various humans and
natural systems, and to economic consequences of those impacts.
Adaptation decisions must therefore be taken in an environment of high
uncertainty.
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This uncertainty can lead to concerns over whether the identified
adaptation actions are necessary or too much, less than ideal or not
enough, restrictive or simply wrong or unjustified. Three ways to
effectively minimise the risk of making poor adaptation decisions in the
face of uncertainty are to:
o
Adopt a flexible or adaptive management approach;
o
Recognise the value of no-regret, low-regret and win-win adaptation
actions; and
o
Avoid those actions that constrain future adaptations or limit the
adaptive responses of others.
What do we mean by an adaptive management approach? What are noregret, low-regret and win-win adaptation actions? What do we mean by
maladaptation? Make sure you can provide examples for each of these
special types of adaptation actions.
c.
The uncertainty also means it is tempting to wait for climate change impacts to
take effect, and respond to them as they occur. In this case, much adaptation
would be reactive or passive. However, a planned approach to adaptation –
recognising and acting on threats and opportunities from an early stage - often
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before they occur - is more likely to lead to successful adaptation over the longterm.
Why should an organisation adapt to climate change now? Why is a pro-active,
planned approach to adaptation likely to prove more successful?
Resources:
Anderson, M. and D. Gardiner, 2006, Managing the risks and opportunities of climate
change: a practical toolkit for corporate leaders, CERES, Boston, MA.
Brooks, N. and W.N. Adger, 2004, Assessing and Enhancing Adaptive Capacity, Section II,
Chapter 7, Adaptation Policy Framework [Burton, I., B. Lim and S. Huq (eds.)], United
Nations Development Program, New York, US.
Burton, I., 2003, Do we have the Adaptive Capacity to Develop and Use the Adaptive
Capacity to Adapt? Climate Change, Adaptive Capacity, and Development [Smith, J., R. Klein
and S. Huq (eds.)], Imperial College Press, London, UK.
CBI, 2010, Whatever the weather – managing the risks from a changing climate,
Confederation of British Industry, London, UK.
Chegini, A., 2005, Climate change and adaptation: business impacts and adaptation, Risk
Solutions Consulting Limited, prepared for DEFRA, London, UK.
(http://www.ukcip.org.uk/resources/sector/documents/DEFRA_Risk_Solutions_report.pdf)
Fankhauser, S., 2010, A Perspective Paper on Adaptation as a Response to Climate Change,
Copenhagen Consensus on Climate, Copenhagen Consensus Centre, Copenhagen Business
School, Copenhagen, DK.
Feenstra, J., I. Burton, J. Smith, and R. Tol, 1998, Handbook on Methods for Climate Change
Impact Assessment and Adaptation Strategies, United Nations Environment Program,
Nairobi, Kenya. [Sections 5.1-5.2.]
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Firth, J. and M. Colley, 2006, The adaptation tipping point: are UK businesses climate-proof,
Acclimatise and UKCIP, Oxford, UK.
(http://cdproject.net/download.asp?file=CDP4_ftse350_Adaptation_Report.pdf)
IEMA, 2009, Adapting to Climate Change: A Guide to its Management in Organisations, Best
Practice Series, Volume 13, prepared by UKCIP on behalf of Institute of Environmental
Management and Assessment, Lincoln. [Section 1 and Section 2.4 to 2.6.]
IPCC, 1996, Climate Change 1995: Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change:
Scientific-Technical Analyses. Contribution of Working Group II to the Second Assessment
Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [R.T. Watson, M.C.
Zinyowera, and R.H. Moss (eds.)], Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New
York, NY, US.
ICLEI, 2007, Preparing for Climate Change: A Guidebook for Local, Regional and State
Governments, Climate Impacts Group, Centre for Science in the Earth System (in
association with ICLEI – Local Governments for Sustainability), Joint Institute for the Study
of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Washington State, US. [Section
3.]
Klein, R. and R. Tol, 1997, Adaptation to Climate Change: Options and Technologies, An
Overview Paper, Institute for Environmental Studies, Free University, Amsterdam,
Netherlands.
Metcalf, G. and K. Jenkinson, 2005, A changing climate for business: business planning for
the impacts of climate change, UK Climate Impact Programme (UKCIP), Oxford, UK.
Parry, M. and T. Carter, 1998, Climate Impact and Adaptation Assessment, A Guide to the
IPCC Approach, London: Earth Scan.
Sussman, F. and J. Freed, 2008, Adapting to climate change: a business approach, prepared
for the PEW Centre on Global Climate Change, Arlington, VA. [Sections 1-3.]
This resource has been released by the University of Bath as an Open Educational Resource. The materials are licensed under a Creative
Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 2.0 licence (except the University of Bath Logo which is a Registered Trademark)
UKCIP, 2008, Identifying Adaptation Options, UK Climate Impacts Programme, Oxford, UK.
(Available online at http://ukcip.org.uk/) [Section 5.]
UKCIP, 2010, Work in the UK (regional climate change studies), UK Climate Impacts
Programme, Oxford, UK. (Available online at http://ukcip.org.uk/)
UKCIP, 2010, UKCIP Adaptation Wizard, UK Climate Impacts Programme, Oxford, UK.
(Available online at http://ukcip.org.uk/) [Section 1.1.]
Willows, R. and R. Connell (eds.), 2003, Climate Adaptation: Risk, Uncertainty and Decisionmaking, UKCIP Technical Report, UK Climate Impacts Programme, Oxford, UK. [Part 1,
Section.]
Yohe, G. and R. Tol, 2002, Indicators for Social and Economic Coping Capacity – Moving
Towards a Working Definition of Adaptive Capacity, Global Environmental Change, 12, pp.
25-40.
Summary Learning Outcomes (A.3):
Upon completion of this section you should be able to:
o
Define adaptation.
o
Differentiate between adaptation and mitigation as responses to climate change.
o
Distinguish between reactive vs. anticipatory, planned vs. autonomous, public vs.
private, and short-term vs. long-term adaptation, and can provide examples.
o
Identify the main categories of adaptation actions and can provide examples.
o
Explain how the risk of making poor adaptation decisions in the face of uncertainty
can be minimised by recognising special types of adaptation actions. Again, provide
examples.
o
Explain why an organisation should take a planned approach to adaptation now.
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