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Discussion of: Beyond Science: The Economics and Politics of Climate Change Rice University, February 8, 2008 Rosina Bierbaum, Dean and Professor, University of Michigan SEG Coordinating Lead Authors Rosina Bierbaum (Co-Chair), Professor and Dean, School of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Michigan John P. Holdren, Director, The Woods Hole Research Center, and Teresa and John Heinz Professor of Environmental Policy, Harvard University Michael MacCracken, Chief Scientist for Climate Change Programs, Climate Institute, Washington DC Richard H. Moss, Senior Director, Climate and Energy, United Nations Foundation and University of Maryland, Peter H. Raven (Co-Chair), President, Missouri Botanical Garden SEG Lead Authors Ulisses Confalonieri, Professor, National School of Public Health and Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil Jacques “Jack” Dubois, Member of the Executive Board, Swiss Re Alexander Ginzburg, Deputy Director, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences Peter H. Gleick, President, Pacific Institute for Studies in Development, Environment, and Security, Oakland, California Zara Khatib, Technology Marketing Manager, Shell International, United Arab Emirates Janice Lough, Principal Research Scientist, Australian Institute of Marine Science Ajay Mathur, President, Senergy Global Private Limited, India Mario Molina, Professor, University of California, San Diego, U.S., and President, Mario Molina Center, Mexico Keto Mshigeni, Vice Chancellor, The Hubert Kairuki Memorial University, Tanzania Nebojsa “Naki” Nakicenovic, Professor, Vienna University of Technology, and Program Leader, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria Taikan Oki, Professor, Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, Japan Hans Joachim “John” Schellnhuber, Professor and Director, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany Diana Ürge-Vorsatz, Professor, Central European University, Hungary Jae Edmonds, University of Maryland, Special Advisor These remarks draw heavily upon the February 2007 report of the UN Foundation / Sigma Xi Scientific Expert Group (SEG) on Climate Change and Sustainable Development prepared for the 15th Session of the CSD. 4 Two Starkly Different Futures • Society’s current path leads to increasingly serious climatechange impacts, including potentially catastrophic changes that will compromise development objectives and threaten living standards • The other path leads to a transformed energy system and improved stewardship of the world’s soils and forests to reduce emissions, create economic opportunity, reduce global poverty, and achieve sustainability • Humanity must act collectively and urgently to change course through leadership at all levels of society -There is no more time for delay Overview – A Sense of Urgency • Climate issue at scientific/political turning point – Global climate change accelerating & caused mainly by humans • Average temperature 0.8°C above pre-industrial value • Increased incidence of extreme weather events • Accelerating sea-level rise, reduction in summer sea ice • Ecosystem boundaries moving – Political recognition of changes & urgency of situation • Expect continuing increases at 0.2°-0.4° per decade with potential abrupt changes in climatic patterns and major impacts on economic and social systems • Climate change will make achievement of MDG’s harder • Pressure building for resolute international action 7 Conclusion • Exceeding 2-2.5° C above 1750 levels would entail sharply increasing risk of intolerable impacts • Avoiding this will require prompt action • Two-pronged strategy: avoid the unmanageable (mitigation) and manage the unavoidable (adaptation) • Mitigation and adaptation measures should be integrated and reinforcing 8 Projected Impacts of Climate Change 9 Stern,2006 Projected Impacts of Climate Change Stern, 2006 A World Vulnerable to Climate Change • Most impacts are expected to be negative, especially for the poorest, most vulnerable nations • Water resources, coastal infrastructure, health, agriculture, and ecosystems are expected to be challenged in virtually every region of the globe • International, regional, and national institutions are illprepared to manage climate change impacts. Enhanced preparedness/response strategies are a global priority The Millennium Development Goals 1. Eradicate Extreme Poverty and Hunger--Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people living on less than $1/day and the proportion of people suffering from hunger. 2. Achieve Universal Primary Education 3. Promote Gender Equality & Empower Women 4. Reduce Child Mortality--Reduce by 2/3, between 1990 and 2015, the under-5 mortality rate. 5. Improve Maternal Health--Reduce by 3/4, between 1990 and 2015, the maternal mortality rate 6. Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases-By 2015 have halted and begun to reverse the spread of HIV aids and the incidence of malaria and other major diseases. 7. Ensure Environmental Sustainability 12 8. Develop a global partnership for Development The Millennium Development Goals 1. Eradicate Extreme Poverty and Hunger--Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people living on less than $1/day and the proportion of people suffering from hunger. 2. Achieve Universal Primary Education 3. Promote Gender Equality & Empower Women 4. Reduce Child Mortality--Reduce by 2/3, between 1990 and 2015, the under-5 mortality rate. 5. Improve Maternal Health--Reduce by 3/4, between 1990 and 2015, the maternal mortality rate 6. Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases-By 2015 have halted and begun to reverse the spread of HIV aids and the incidence of malaria and other major diseases. 7. Ensure Environmental Sustainability 13 8. Develop a global partnership for Development Agro-Economic Vulnerability to Future Climate Change Ecological Vulnerability to Future Climate Change Both Mitigation and Adaptation are needed. • A “mitigation only” strategy won’t work because it’s already too late to avoid substantial climate change. • An “adaptation only” strategy won’t work because most adaptation measures become more costly and less effective as the magnitude of the changes to which one is trying to adapt gets larger. 16 SEG adaptation strategy • Identify & understand key vulnerabilities by sector and region, including – health, food production, water resources, coastal communities, biodiversity • Expand adaptation research focusing on – critical thresholds, multiple stresses, adaptive management, ocean chemistry, opportunities opened by climate change • Harness & enhance existing institutional capacity for the task of planning for and adapting to climate change – with emphasis on UN & other international institutions – starting with an inventory of relevant organizations & instruments • Improve early-warning systems, contingency planning, & information systems for resource management • Integrate adaptation concerns into social networks SEG adaptation recommendations for the UN • Inventory & evaluate the incorporation of adaptation concerns & programs in existing UN organizations – identifying needs/opportunities for improvements & additions – establishing increased communication & data-sharing • Conduct vulnerability analyses & monitoring, including – focused efforts to identify regions & sectors of high vulnerability – assistance to vulnerable regions in monitoring & capacity-building • Integrate adaptation into ongoing development efforts by – using 2006-2007 CSD focus on climate and 2008 International Year of Planet Earth to integrate adaptation into Agenda 21 action plans and national sustainable-development strategies – create a global adaptation information clearinghouse Adaptation recommendations for the UN (continued) • Refocus UN diplomatic, scientific, & technological capabilities to encompass additional adaptation work, e.g., – strengthen the proposed 5-year program on adaptation in the UNFCCC, including efforts on altered cropping patterns, water conservation, germ-plasm preservation, & weather-disaster response – accelerate the development of drought-, salt-, and flood-tolerant crop varieties – promote expedited development of improved forecasting models and early-warning systems • Develop an operational plan for environmental refugees The Roadmap - Adaptation Food and Agriculture Sector Tool Kit Planning/Management Technology/R&D •Expand flood and drought planning using climate scenarios. •Improve seasonal and short-term forecasts and their delivery and uptake. •Remove perverse subsidies that encourage inappropriate climate-sensitive crops. •Improve the application of water, fertilizer, and pesticides using computerized “precision” farming techniques. •Encourage subsidies that foster collaborative efforts to both grow food and fiber and protect local ecosystems. •Promote agroforestry. •Develop farm extension programs to improve knowledge transfer and process innovation. •Increase efforts to encourage carbon sequestration in soils and terrestrial biomass. •Develop new crops and biotechnical solutions to changing climatic conditions. Case Study Rangeland rehabilitation in Sudan: Repeated droughts caused poor grazing conditions that exposed the land to high levels of wind erosion. Community groups were mobilized and community members trained to rehabilitate the grazing lands through sand-dune revegetation and windbreak installation. Attention to addressing immediate socioeconomic conditions, combined with the longer-term carbonsequestration plan, helped to make this community more resilient to climate change. This is also an example of working to fulfill the Millennium Development Goals. U.S. ADAPTATION RESEARCH IS INADEQUATE… Understanding and predicting physical climate change is progressing well Declining observing capability Inadequate human dimensions funding: – $30 million; lack of collaboration Inadequate progress – in assessing impacts on human well being and vulnerabilities – in providing knowledge to support decision making and risk analyses – in communicating results and engaging stakeholders in a two-way dialogue NRC, Evaluating Progress of the US CCSP Program: Methods & Preliminary Results, 2007 Among the President’s FY ’09 Priorities…. “So as to better inform policy, agencies should continue to make investments to improve our ability to observe, model, assess, and adapt to impacts of climate change, particularly on a regional scale, and to assure the availability of critical long-term climate data.” 23 Even more than with mitigation measures, adaptation measures tend to be “win-win” • Measures to improve water conservation & water management have great value even in the absence of climate-driven increases in stress on water systems. • Strengthening public-health and environmental-engineering defenses against climate-linked increases in the geographic extent & virulence of certain diseases will also reduce damage from disease more generally. • Strengthening buildings and infrastructure against floods, storms, & storm surges expected to increase under climate change provides protection that would be valuable even absent such increases, and also provides protection against other types of extreme events (earthquakes, tsunamis). 24 More broadly… “The best way to address climate-change impacts is by integrating adaptation measures into mainstream sustainabledevelopment and povertyreduction strategies.” - SEG, Confronting Climate Change, p 82 26 27