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Climate Change Literacy Guiding Principles for Informed Climate Decision Making. G. McBean, CM, Ph.D., FRSC Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction Departments of Geography and Political Science The University of Western Ontario London, Ontario 1 The Climate System The Sun is the primary source of energy • Interacting components: atmosphere, ocean, land surface, sea ice, glaciers… • Processes are complicated and all components are interconnected Life on Earth depends on, is shaped by, and now affects climate. Climate Change Literacy • The Essential Principles of Climate Science • The Greenhouse Effect 3 Land life Ozone layer Humans Oxygen Intervention Oceans – marine life Greenhouse effect Some water condenses to liquid – clouds-rain Gases came out – water vapour As the planet cooled from its very hot beginning GREENHOUSE EFFECT – gases in atmosphere trap energy and warm the surface and lower atmosphere 5700oC Short Waves Carbon Dioxide ~10% ~25% Other ~65% Water Vapour 15oC Long Waves Other planets also have Greenhouse Effects, but these are unsuitable for life Sun Venus Atmosphere: GH Gases: Sfc. Temp.: GH Effect: mass 90x earth’s >90% CO2 477C 523C FAR TOO HOT! GH Gases: Earth Sfc. Temp.: GH Effect: ~0.04% CO2 ~ 1% H2O 15C 33C NOT BAD! Mars Atmosphere: GH Gases: Sfc. Temp.: GH Effect: mass <1% earth’s >80% CO2 -47C 10C FAR TOO COLD! • • • • • • • • Time Scales for Climate System Water cycle 10 days regional issue) Ocean response years to centuries Emissions to globe years Methane gas 10 years global issues Carbon dioxide 100 years End-use technologiesyears Supply technologies decades responding Social standards decades Climate change is a long-term issue Issues of intergenerational and international equity 8 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – assess climate change – 1990,95, 2001,07 • Most scientific information in this presentation is from IPCC (or Canadian national assessments) • Nobel Peace Prize for 2007: awarded to: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Albert Arnold (Al) Gore Jr. • The Norwegian Nobel Committee noted that it • “is seeking to contribute to a sharper focus on the processes and decisions that appear to be necessary to protect the world’s future climate, and thereby to reduce the threat to9 • 240 Canadian climate scientists shared in this Prize as co-authors of the one or more of the IPCC major reports. • Lester Pearson won the Peace Prize in 1957. Changing Greenhouse Gas Concentrations from ice cores and modern data Now 1957 Carbon dioxide Methane Last 10,000 y Nitrous oxide 11 • • • • • • • • Time Scales for Climate System Water cycle 10 days regional issue) Ocean response years to centuries Emissions to globe years Methane gas 10 years global issues Carbon dioxide 100 years End-use technologiesyears Supply technologies decades responding Social standards decades Climate change is a long-term issue Issues of intergenerational and international equity 13 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – assess climate change – 1990,95, 2001,07 • Most scientific information in this presentation is from IPCC (or Canadian national assessments) • Nobel Peace Prize for 2007: awarded to: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Albert Arnold (Al) Gore Jr. • The Norwegian Nobel Committee noted that it • “is seeking to contribute to a sharper focus on the processes and decisions that appear to be necessary to protect the world’s future 14 climate, and thereby to reduce the threat to • 240 Canadian climate scientists shared in this Prize as co-authors of the one or more of the IPCC major reports. • Lester Pearson won the Peace Prize in 1957. Changing Greenhouse Gas Concentrations from ice cores and modern data Now 1957 Carbon dioxide Methane Last 10,000 y Nitrous oxide 16 Climate Change Literacy • Is the Climate Changing? 17 NASA-GISS analysis. 2005 was warmest 2007 and 1998 were second warmest 2008 was 9th warmest in the instrumental period (since 1850) 0.18 0.13 Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level. Eleven of the last twelve years (1995 -2006) rank among the 12 warmest years in 18 the instrumental record of global surface temperature (since 1850). Millions of square km Sea-ice is Melting Year 2008 2007 Climate Change Literacy • Why is it changing? 20 Natural processes •Variations in Earth’s orbit? •Variations in Sun? •Volcanoes? Why is the climate changing? Observations Climate Models Natural processes + Human Processes •Greenhouse gas emissions •Aerosols •Land-cover change Observations Climate Models Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. Observations Climate Models Natural processes Natural processes + Human Processes Climate Change Literacy • How will it change in the future? 24 Projecting the Future Emissions GtCO2 eq/yr warming °C per decade Science Uncertainty 3.6C 2.8C 1.8C 0.2 0.18 0.13 And the warming will continue for centuries to follow Key Messages • The climate has warmed, will continue to warm, and humans are the cause • Mitigation (emission reductions) will not substantially affect the climate over the next few decades – so we have to adapt. • But, choices made now will have a big impact on the second-half of the st Climate Change Literacy • Adapt to what? 27 No one lives at the global average Medium (A1B) scenario (2090-2099): Global mean warming 2.8oC Annual DJF Much warmer winters; Increased precipitation Changing Precipitation JJA Hotter summers; Rain - varies Water-sewage, agriculture 28 Forestry, floods, droughts Number of hot days* per year In Europe - Record setting August 2003 (more than 35,000 deaths) will be hot day is defined as a Fredericton every second summer – by*Amid-century Quebec day with a maximum temperature above 30C Actions: Toronto •Better design our structures and cities •more green space-shade-use of passive cooling London 37 68 8 22 •Heat alerts and responses – medical advice Winnipeg •Cleaner air 2080-2100 Calgary Projected 2041-2069 2020-2040 1961-1990 Victoria More frequent hot days – Observed virtually certain – very 0Warm spells 20 40 likely 60 80 Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis Centre canadien de la modélisation et de l’analyse climatique No Breathing Room National Illness Costs of Air Pollution Canadian Medical Association (CMA) August 2008 1. In 2008, 21,000 Canadians will die from the effects of air pollution. 2. By 2031, almost 90,000 people will have died from the acute effects of air pollution. The number of deaths due to long-term exposure to air pollution will be 710,000. … 10. 11. In 2008, economic costs of air pollution will top $8 billion. By 2031, these costs will have accumulated to over $250 billion. The processes that result in air pollution are much the same as those that produce greenhouse gases. And more hot days will result in more smog days – for the same emissions From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate 2007 • Projections - intense rainfall events, heat waves and smog episodes are likely to become more frequent. • Heat-related mortality could more than double in southern and central Ontario by the 2050s, while air pollution mortality could increase about 15 to 25% during the same interval. • The health of Ontario residents has been at risk … extreme weather, heat waves, smog episodes and ecological changes that support the spread of vector-borne diseases. • Walkerton, Ontario $500M for the August 19, 2005 wind, rain event 32 Historical occurrences of urban flooding 1980, 1996, 2002, 2004 1 in 100 year event in 2002 Wind Damage to Infrastructure Severe Stormprecipitation Loss of More heavy events – very likely Service Sept. 29, 2005 Nov. 6, 2005 Nov. 16, 2005 Feb. 4, 2006 July 17, 2006 Aug. 2, 2006 Sept. 24+27, 2006 93,000 120,000 50,000 100,000 170,000 150,000 93,000 The Insurance Research Lab for Better Homes forest under Natural ecosystems dependBoreal on temperature and stress Increased risk of drought Climate moves north faster Precipitation. Is Likely than the trees 550 ppm – mid-late this century Today Warmer temperatures Great Lakes Water Levels Warmer lakesCurrent and &changing climate 184 Projected Ranges resulting in more invasive species 175 in lakes and ecosystems 183.5 X X 177 183 174 1 metre drop in lake level possible X 75.5 X X 173 176 X 74.5 182.5 Lake Superior 175 172 X 174 X 73.5 X 72.5 Lakes MichiganHuron X Lake Erie Lake Ontario How will this change our access to water, Average, 1918-1998 sewage disposal, shipping and recreation? Projected for 2XCO2, assuming no change in natural variability (CCC GCMII from Morstch & Quinn, 1996) Climate Change is a Global Issue: Coastal vulnerabilities in light of global change – Sea level rise – Increasing settlement in coastal zones Time series of global mean sea level, as a deviation from 1980-99 mean. Vulnerability of Asian coastal cities – Increasing urban settlement in lowlying coastal areas – IPCC has identified Asian mega deltas as “hot spots of vulnerability” – By 2070, nine of the top 10 cities in terms of population exposure will be found in Asia (Kolkata, Mumbai, Dhaka, Guangzhou, Ho Chi Minh City, Shanghai, Bangkok, Rangoon, and Hai Phong) Climate Change Literacy • We have a responsibility to our children and grandchildren and people around the world. • We MUST reduce our impact. 39 Number of hot days* per year In Europe - Record setting August 2003 (more than 35,000 deaths) will be hot day is defined as a Fredericton every second summer – by*Amid-century Quebec day with a maximum temperature above 30C Actions: Toronto •Better design our structures and cities •more green space-shade-use of passive cooling London 37 68 8 22 •Heat alerts and responses – medical advice Winnipeg •Cleaner air 2080-2100 Calgary Projected 2041-2069 2020-2040 1961-1990 Victoria More frequent hot days – Observed virtually certain – very 0Warm spells 20 40 likely 60 80 Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis Centre canadien de la modélisation et de l’analyse climatique No Breathing Room National Illness Costs of Air Pollution Canadian Medical Association (CMA) August 2008 1. In 2008, 21,000 Canadians will die from the effects of air pollution. 2. By 2031, almost 90,000 people will have died from the acute effects of air pollution. The number of deaths due to long-term exposure to air pollution will be 710,000. … 10. 11. In 2008, economic costs of air pollution will top $8 billion. By 2031, these costs will have accumulated to over $250 billion. The processes that result in air pollution are much the same as those that produce greenhouse gases. And more hot days will result in more smog days – for the same emissions From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate 2007 • Projections - intense rainfall events, heat waves and smog episodes are likely to become more frequent. • Heat-related mortality could more than double in southern and central Ontario by the 2050s, while air pollution mortality could increase about 15 to 25% during the same interval. • The health of Ontario residents has been at risk … extreme weather, heat waves, smog episodes and ecological changes that support the spread of vector-borne diseases. • Walkerton, Ontario $500M for the August 19, 2005 wind, rain event 43 Historical occurrences of urban flooding 1980, 1996, 2002, 2004 1 in 100 year event in 2002 Wind Damage to Infrastructure Severe Stormprecipitation Loss of More heavy events – very likely Service Sept. 29, 2005 Nov. 6, 2005 Nov. 16, 2005 Feb. 4, 2006 July 17, 2006 Aug. 2, 2006 Sept. 24+27, 2006 93,000 120,000 50,000 100,000 170,000 150,000 93,000 The Insurance Research Lab for Better Homes forest under Natural ecosystems dependBoreal on temperature and stress Increased risk of drought Climate moves north faster Precipitation. Is Likely than the trees 550 ppm – mid-late this century Today Warmer temperatures Great Lakes Water Levels Warmer lakesCurrent and &changing climate 184 Projected Ranges resulting in more invasive species 175 in lakes and ecosystems 183.5 X X 177 183 174 1 metre drop in lake level possible X 75.5 X X 173 176 X 74.5 182.5 Lake Superior 175 172 X 174 X 73.5 X 72.5 Lakes MichiganHuron X Lake Erie Lake Ontario How will this change our access to water, Average, 1918-1998 sewage disposal, shipping and recreation? Projected for 2XCO2, assuming no change in natural variability (CCC GCMII from Morstch & Quinn, 1996) Climate Change is a Global Issue: Coastal vulnerabilities in light of global change – Sea level rise – Increasing settlement in coastal zones Time series of global mean sea level, as a deviation from 1980-99 mean. Vulnerability of Asian coastal cities – Increasing urban settlement in lowlying coastal areas – IPCC has identified Asian mega deltas as “hot spots of vulnerability” – By 2070, nine of the top 10 cities in terms of population exposure will be found in Asia (Kolkata, Mumbai, Dhaka, Guangzhou, Ho Chi Minh City, Shanghai, Bangkok, Rangoon, and Hai Phong) Climate Change Literacy • We have a responsibility to our children and grandchildren and people around the world. • We MUST reduce our impact. 50 Canada’s Emissions to 2006 Energy 81% 29.1% above Kyoto Target Kyoto Target By Province/Territory Alberta 1990 Ontario 2006 GHG Emissions- tonne/person 2004 US = 20 Canada = 20 Germany,Japan,UK = 9.8 China = 2.6 India = 1 Change in GHG Emissions Relative to 1990 Australia +25% Canada +25% United States +16% Japan +6% EU -1.5% Sweden -7.3% UK -15% 5 Recent emissions Fossil Fuel Emissions: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios Trajectory of Global Fossil Fuel Emissions 0 Global Carbon – 10/07 1950 1850 Project 1900 2000 2050 2100 CO2 Emissions (GtC y-1) 10 9 8 7 Actual emissions: CDIAC Actual emissions: EIA 450ppm stabilisation 650ppm stabilisation A1FI (Avgs.) A1B A1T A2 B1 B2 2007 2008 2006 2005 6 1990 - 1999: 1.3% y-1 5 1990 1995 2000 - 2007: 3.5% y-1 2000 Raupach et al 2007, PNAS; Global Carbon Project 2009, update 2005 2010 Natural CO Sinks absorb 55% of all Emissions 2 And Natural Ecosystems have been protecting the climate from some of our insult • 55% discount on humaninduced climate change. • A subsidy to the global economy worth half a trillion US$ annually if an equivalent sink had to be created (eg, base on EU-Emission Trading Scheme). As the climate warms, these systems will absorb less. Canadell and Raupach 2008, Science Green Energy & Environmentally Friendly Chemical Technologies at Western Engineering Research Activities 1. Environmentally friendly fuels 2. Green technologies for air/water treatment and hydrogen production 3. Fuel and biofuel cell technologies 4. Novel materials for green processes and products We can take actions here!! • Reduce energy use • Reduce the carbon intensity of our energy – Alternate fuel from waste – Solar and wind power • Reduce our pollutant emissions – airwater-… • Mayor’s Energy Sustainability Council • Green is the Colour of Money • And adapt to a changing climate. Key Messages • The climate has warmed, will continue to warm, and humans are the cause • Mitigation (emission reductions) will not substantially affect the climate over the next few decades – so we have to adapt. • But, choices made now will have a big impact on the second-half of the st The End Thank you for your attention