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AIACC Projects (AF04) Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change by the Biodiversity Sector in Southern Africa (Robert Scholes, CSIR Division of Water, Environment and Forest Technology, South Africa) The project aims to develop, test and promote tools for planned adaptation in the biodiversity conservation sector. This involves developing more realistic ways of predicting the response of plant, animal, bird and reptile species to a changing climate in the presence of a changing and fragmented landscape. The project will analyze a range of adaptation options to determine which are the most effective, cost-efficient, and robust. Three case studies, selected for their different environments and data limitations, will be used as demonstrations of the techniques. Training and awareness-raising, particularly among professional biodiversity managers and policy-makers within the South African Development Community, is an important part of the project. Countries and sectors: South Africa, with applicability to southern Africa and elsewhere. The core sector is biodiversity conservation in both the public and private sectors; including partial integration with the Agriculture, Tourism and Water Supply sectors insofar as they impact biodiversity conservation options. (AF14) Environmental Strategies for Increasing Human Resilience in Sudan: Lessons for Climate Change Adaptation in North and East Africa (Balgis M. Osman and Nagmeldin Goubti, Higher Council for Environment and Natural Resources, Sudan, and Erika Spanger-Siegfried, Stockholm Environment Institute, USA) This project aims to identify cost-effective environmental management measures that can contribute most to the resilience and adaptive capacity of vulnerable communities and agricultural systems in Sudan and other drought-prone countries. A series of four case studies in disaster-struck regions of Sudan will be utilized to explore the relative resilience of communities and the productive systems on which they depend (specifically agriculture, including food crop production, silviculture and animal husbandry) to climate-related disasters and long-term climate change. In addition, a series of synthesis reports and training modules, and the development of a national and regional network that includes relevant Sudanese and North African organizations, will serve to strengthen the capacity of key actors (including decision-makers, researchers, community-based groups and intergovernmental agencies) in Sudan and surrounding countries to respond to climate change vulnerability with affordable adaptation options. Through this research, the project may succeed in bringing to light those environmental management measures that can provide a ‘triple dividend’ - decreased climate-related disaster vulnerability, reduced demand for international humanitarian assistance in disaster response and recovery, and achievement of national and global sustainable development objectives. Countries and sectors: Sudan in particular, North Africa in general. Agriculture, including crop production, livestock, and silviculture. 1 AIACC Projects (AF23) Food Security and Climate Change in Sub-Saharan West Africa (James Adejuwon, Department of Geography, Obafemi Awolowo University, Nigeria) The primary objective of the project is to undertake a study of the vulnerability of food crop production to inter-annual climate variability and extreme weather events in West Africa and to assess how extended weather and climate forecasts could be employed as a basic adaptation strategy to ameliorate the impacts. This project will build on the existing capacity to predict climate variability on time scales ranging from weeks (intra-seasonal) to months (inter-seasonal), to years to improve management and decision-making in the production of food crops in West Africa. EPIC (Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator) will be introduced as a crop model most suitable for relating the climatic factor to economic yield of crops. The model will be used to assess the impacts of climate variability on the major crops. Based on demonstrated sensitivity of the major crops to climate variability, a suite of options will be developed and evaluated as responses to the various categories of predictable upcoming seasonal and annual weather to enhance crop yields and food production. The outlook for food security within the context of climate change, and adaptive capacity during the 21 st Century will also be assessed on the basis of the results of the climate variability study. Countries and sectors: Nigeria and Niger Republic in particular, Sub Saharan West Africa in general. Agriculture and food security. (AF38) Integrated Assessment of Miombo Region: Exploration of Impacts and Adaptation Options in Relation to Climate Change and Extremes (Paul Desanker, Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, USA, and Manuel Ferrao, Centro Nacional de Cartografica e Teledeteccao, Mozambique) The goal of this project is to assess vulnerability and explore adaptation options to climate variability and extreme events in the Miombo region, including areas of Malawi, Zambia, Zimbabwe, and Mozambique that lie within the drainage basin of the Zambezi River. An interdisciplinary team of social and natural scientists, managers, policy advisors and general public will be identified to form a regional assessment team that will participate in summer institutes to carry out the project. Primary emphasis will be on land use and its impacts on food production systems and food security, as well as impacts on land use changes on water; all within the context of climate change. The team will develop critical datasets and scenarios of land use change, a regional integrated model, and other tools for analyzing impacts and adaptation for the region, including a case study approach to document climate–land use–people–ecosystem interlinkages and interactions to guide adaptation planning. The data, models and case study results will be applied to assess vulnerability of life and livelihoods and identify critical adaptation plans of action in the Zambezi/Miombo region under future climate change, with particular emphasis on droughts and floods. Countries and sectors: Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. Food, water, land use, life and livelihoods, national physical planning including National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs). 2 AIACC Projects (AF42) Impacts of Climate Change, Vulnerability and Adaptation Capacity in the Limpopo Basin of Semi-Arid Land Southern Africa: The Case of Eastern Botswana (Opha Pauline Dube, Department of Environmental Science, University of Botswana, Botswana) A detailed assessment of impacts of climate change on water and food resources in the Limpopo basin in the eastern part of Botswana will be conducted in close association with local communities, government departments, the private sector and relevant NGOs. The study will ascertain the degree of vulnerability and capacity to adapt to climate change and identify strategies to enhance locally based adaptation options. Past responses to climate variations and socio-economic and climatic interactions will be used as a baseline to project future impacts and vulnerability to climate change on food and water across different income groups. Future projections will extend over 20 years and a range of climate and socio-economic scenarios based on the IPCC SRES scenarios will be used. An integrated assessment approach will be used to elucidate linkages in food and water with respect to climate, land use activities, socio-economic, political and cultural factors. This information will form the basis for valuing the likely loss from climate change impacts on the Limpopo basin, estimated in monetary value relative to the national GDP where adaptation measures are not implemented. Countries and sectors: Botswana in particular, southern Africa in general. Ecosystems, water and food resources. (AF47) Capacity Building in Analytical Tools for Estimating and Comparing Costs and Benefits of Adaptation Projects in Africa (Ogunlade Davidson, Energy and Development Research Centre, University of Capetown, South Africa) The key objective of this project is to help build and strengthen the institutional capacity within Africa to develop and implement analytical tools for estimating and comparing the costs and benefits of adaptation projects in key economic sectors. The project will build upon an earlier adaptation cost framework to define and develop relevant metrics for estimating and comparing the costs and benefits of some adaptation projects to be developed under AIACC. The project will focus on developing and applying a framework for estimating and comparing adaptation costs in Southern Africa and West Africa. Specific adaptation projects selected will be from the following sectors/impact areas: agriculture, energy supply and demand, fresh water resource supply, freshwater resource quality, flooding of freshwater bodies, and sea-level rise. Results from the study will contribute to the development of international climate change policies and programs, particularly in regard to adaptation activities in developing countries under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Countries and sectors: Southern and West Africa. Various sectors to be selected (see above). 3 AIACC Projects (AF07) Development of Regional Climate Change Scenarios for Sub-Saharan Africa (Bruce Hewitson, Climate System Analysis Group, University of Cape Town, South Africa) Africa is one of the regions most vulnerable to climate change, is likely the most under-resourced continent for climate change research, and a region where the climate dynamics are still poorly understood. In response this project seeks to address these needs through the development of regional scenarios from GCM climate change simulations. A primary component of this work will be to extend existing capacity among African scientists in issues of method and implementation for regional scenario construction. The scenarios will be focused on spatial and temporal scales appropriate to the primary vulnerability sectors in Africa, and incorporate computationally efficient empirical downscaling and the more demanding regional climate models -- both of which have been identified in the IPCC 2001 Third Assessment Report as having equal skill with respective advantages in different impact sectors. Substantial capacity has already been developed at the host institution and through a number of activities undertaken in regional capacity development. This capacity is supplemented by strong international links with all phases of scenario development. The project will provide an extension to these capacity building initiatives, and provide for the first time a comprehensive scenario base for IPCC and related impacts activities in Africa. Countries and sectors: Sub-Sahara Africa. Regional scenarios. (AF20) Assessing Global And Regional Climate Change Scenarios for West Africa (Amadou Gaye, Laboratory for Atmospheric Physics, Cheik Anta Diop University, Senegal) This project seeks to build capacity for assessing climate change scenarios from global and regional climate model simulations for use in impact studies in West Africa. The project will address the need to (a) Assess global circulation model (GCM) and regional climate model simulations for present and future climate states in order to examine the processes that bring about new climate states; (b) Determine whether these changes are realistic given the current understanding of the West African Climate system; and (c) Provide model output to other disciplines to examine how potential changes in climate might affect key sectors on national and regional scales in West Africa. An important component of this proposal is capacity building of West Africa institutions. The project will build the capacity of the Laboratory for Atmospheric Physics at Cheik Anta Diop University of Senegal to undertake regional climate model simulations and act as a center for research and learning. In addition to the assessment described above, the Laboratory will host a regional climate model workshop to show participants how to run the regional climate models, analyze regional and global climate model output that is relevant for West Africa, and produce visualization of this data. Countries and sectors: West Africa (Equator-30N, 15W-20E). Regional scenarios. 4 AIACC Projects (AF90) Assessment of Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability to Climate Change in North Africa: Food Production and Water Resources. (Ayman F. Abou Hadid, Central Laboratory for Agricultural Climate) This study will enhance scientific and technical capacity in countries in North Africa for: (1) assessing current and future adaptive capacity and vulnerability of food production and water resources; (2) enhancing adaptive capacity in current and future conditions; and (3) synthesizing lessons learned in the region. The project will compare the results of three case studies representing a range of climate and agricultural systems (Nile Delta (Egypt), Settat Province (Morocco), Center Region (Tunisia)) and integrate the results in a North Africa wide context. Research activities will focus on stakeholder engagement at three levels (farm, sub-national resource managers, and national administrative agencies), climate impacts detections (via empirical-statistical analysis, modeling, and case studies), and evaluation of adaptation methods. One major output of the research will be the integration of climate information, scenarios of future climate and socio-economic conditions, and vulnerability in the form of a vulnerability index that stakeholders can evaluate and determine applicability. This study will enhance the ability of the agriculture sector to interact with and respond to climate information in preparation for the projected range of climate changes through the 21st century and increase the capacity of society to adapt to climate variability and change. Countries and sectors: Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia. Agriculture, water. (AF91) Capacity Building to Evaluate and Adapt to Climate Change-Induced Vulnerability to Malaria and Cholera in the Lake Victoria Region (Shem Wandiga, National Academy of Sciences, Kenya) The focus of this study is to improve the understanding of the relationship between climate change parameters (precipitation and temperature) and the incidences of malaria and cholera in the Lake Victoria region (Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania). The study will start with characterization of baseline temperature and precipitation variability and apply existing climate models and scenarios to estimate possible perturbations to these conditions. GIS layers will be constructed using historical climate and disease data and used to select pilot study sites. Time series analyses will be used to correlate the relationship between climate and disease incidences. In order to assess vulnerability of pilot groups, the teams will use participatory methodologies and socio-economic analysis tools, including retrospective and prospective data analysis to estimate the excess risk of malaria and cholera that may be attributable to future climate change. The study team will identify priority risk groups based on exposure potential, work with pilot populations (representative of priority risk groups) to distinguish risk management strategies and select preferred options to inform policy. The study will incorporate capacity building in global change research in all its activities, by engaging stakeholders and scientists in the region. Countries and sectors: Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda. Human health (disease), water. 5 AIACC Projects (AF92) Rural Households and Drought in the Sahel Region of West Africa: Vulnerability and Effective Mitigation Measures (A. A. Adepetu, Center for Environmental Resources and Hazards Research, Department of Geography and Planning, University of Jos, Nigeria) The objective of this study is to identify the groups most vulnerable to climate variability and change, and understand the nature of this vulnerability in relation to adaptive capacity. A number of villages and communities in Nigeria and Mali will be selected for inclusion in the project and will be stratified into levels of drought severity based on existing indices and stakeholder consultation. Combining climate data from historical and baseline records, and non-climate data that will be obtained through stakeholder consultations using ethnographic and participatory research, the study will build an impact model for the study region. A guided sensitivity analysis will be carried out on the impact model by applying incremental scenarios based on changes to the key climatic variables as produced by GCMs, which contribute to the impact model. Impact thresholds will be established, first with stakeholders, after which a quantitative measure would be derived for ease of comparison across regions. A risk analysis will then be performed to calculate the risk of exceeding given impact thresholds for various groups. Finally, the actual and potential coping/adaptation strategies of the people will be evaluated. These results will be communicated to stakeholders via workshops, reports and peer-reviewed publications. The study will be gender sensitive, as the various groups will be further disaggregated by sex in the model. Countries and sectors: Nigeria and Mali. Agriculture, extremes (drought). (AS06) Potential Impacts of Climate Change and Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment for Grassland Ecosystem and Livestock Sector in Mongolia (Punsalmaa Batima, Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Mongolia) In Mongolia the risk of climate change and/or extreme climatic events could have dramatic impacts on the economy and natural systems. Particularly vulnerable is the rangeland and livestock sector, which occupies about 80% of Mongolia’s territory. As land use intensity and the frequency and magnitude of climate variability rise, the resilience and adaptive capacity of traditional networks and land use systems to cope with climate variability/extremes weaken. This project aims to comprehensively assess the impacts, vulnerability, and adaptive capacity of the rangeland and livestock sector in Mongolia to climate change. Impacts will be evaluated through the quantitative and qualitative estimation of potential productivity of under different climate change scenarios. A combination of ecosystem modeling, remote sensing data, analysis of existing long-term plant dynamics and climate databases, and field surveys will be used to investigate climate and land use changes effects on grassland ecosystem structure and function. Particular priority will be placed on the study of interactions between climate, grassland and pastoral systems, and social institutions in order to assess vulnerability and adaptive capacity of the integrated system and ultimately support environmental planning and decision-making. Countries and sectors: Mongolia. Natural resources, grassland ecosystem, livestock, pastoral society, socio-economic system. 6 AIACC Projects (AS07) Southeast Asia Regional Vulnerability to Changing Water Resource and Extreme Hydrological Events due to Climate Change (Anond Snidvongs, Southeast Asia START Regional Center, Thailand) This project will use high-resolution climate and hydrological scenarios as the basis for assessing vulnerability of social and economic sectors in Mekong river basin to changing water regimes due to climate and land cover changes. This will be accomplished by an assessment team in concert with an expert workshop series. Expert at the first workshop will identify the data requirements for the assessment of impact on several water-related issues – including water quantity, extreme events, water quality, aquatic habitats, fisheries and living resources and other – and will guide data acquisition and scenario development. The second workshop will identify which social and economic sectors in each basin will be affected by changing water resources. Detailed vulnerability assessments will be made according to the workshop output, and will form the basis for the third workshop. Experts at the third workshop will identify, evaluate and recommend adaptation strategies and options for affected sectors in the Mekong river basin as well as for the Southeast Asia region in general. The outcome of this third workshop will be compiled and translated into 4 major Southeast Asian languages in the lower Mekong river basin to provide access to policy makers across the region. Countries and sectors: The study will focus in the lower Mekong river basin, which is Southeast Asia region, and consist of Cambodia, Lao PDR, Thailand and Viet Nam. Water resources and sectors affected by changes in water resources. (AS12) Assessment of the Impacts of and Adaptations to Climate Change in the Plantation Sector, with Particular Reference to Coconut and Tea, in Sri Lanka (Janaka Ratnasiri, Sri Lanka Association for the Advancement of Science, Sri Lanka) This project aims to assess impacts and adaptation options for the plantation sector in Sri Lanka, with specific emphasis on coconut and tea. Coconut and tea are two economically important crops in Sri Lanka and other South and Southeast Asian countries, and are extremely sensitive to drought conditions. Any decline in their production due to anticipated climate change would affect a large number of people and national economies, which are largely dependent on the export revenue from these crops. This will be accomplished by developing scenarios of future climate and crop production using baseline data on climate, crops, and socio-economic conditions at the farm and national level. Crop-weather and integrated assessment models will be calibrated to local conditions and used to assess impacts on the production system, including economic factors, such as changes in labor force, markets and trade. Using the scenarios and integrated assessment models, cost-effective adaptation strategies will be identified, evaluated, and communicated to planters. A set of guidelines for appropriate policy measures for mitigating the impacts and implementing adaptation strategies will be recommended, which could be applied at the national level in Sri Lanka, and to the South and Southeast Asian region generally. Countries and sectors: Sri Lanka in particular, South and Southeast Asia in general. Plantation agriculture. 7 AIACC Projects (AS21) An Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability in Watershed Areas and Communities in Southeast Asia (Rodel Lasco, University of the Philippines at Los Baños College of Forestry and Natural Resources, Philippines) Watersheds are critical to economic development and environmental protection in Southeast Asia, and are likely to be affected by future climate change. This project will assess the impacts of climate change and associated land use and cover change on water resources, forest ecosystems, and social systems of watersheds in Southeast Asia. The project leaders will conduct studies in selected watersheds of Philippines and Indonesia, respectively, and will provide training and technical assistance to scientists from Indo-China on research methods to be implemented in their watersheds. Future climate scenarios will be developed and downscaled, and the results will be used in conjunction with a climate-vegetation model to predict future land use and cover change. The impacts of climate and land use/cover change will be assessed with measures of change in biodiversity, carbon and water budgets, livelihood, health, demographic shifts, and changes in social structure resulting from climate and land use/cover change. The project team will conduct an integrated vulnerability assessment of natural and social systems in the watershed, and will develop and evaluate adaptation strategies. Research findings and policy implications will be presented to policy makers and development workers. Countries and sectors: Philippines, Indonesia, and Indo-China (Laos, Vietnam, Cambodia). Water resources, forest ecosystems. (AS25) Integrated Assessments of Vulnerabilities and Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change in the Western Region of China (Yongyuan Yin, International Earth System Sciences Institute at Nanjing University, People’s Republic of China, and Sustainable Development Research Institute at the University of British Columbia, Canada) With barriers such as extremely fragile ecological conditions, few financial resources, poor infrastructure, low levels of education, and little access to technology and markets, Western China has been suffering from climate variations and will experience severe impacts of climate change on food production, water resources, and human health. In this project, an integrated approach will be developed for identifying regional vulnerabilities to climate variations and change, and for prioritizing adaptation options to deal with climate change vulnerability. Different methods will be used to form the integrated approach, including surveys, workshops, multi-stakeholder consultation, ecological simulation modeling, geographical information system (GIS), remote sensing, and multi-criteria decision-making. The project will addresses the following questions: 1) How vulnerable is Western China to current climate variations and future climatee change in key sectors? 2) What can the vulnerabilities of these key sectors to present climate variations teach us about future vulnerability? and 3) What are the desirable adaptation options to deal effectively with future climate change? The ultimate aims of this project are to build scientific capacity in the region and suggest practical adaptation options and/or policies to effectively handle climate change impacts and ensure sustainable development. Countries and sectors: Western China. Food supply, water shortage, land use conflicts, desertification, salinization, ecosystem deterioration, and railway construction in Tibetan permafrost region. 8 AIACC Projects (LA06) Assessment of Impacts and Adaptation Measures for the Water Resources Sector Due to Extreme Events Under Climate Change Conditions in Central America (Walter Fernández, Laboratory for Atmospheric and Planetary Research, School of Physics, University of Costa Rica, Costa Rica) The Central American Isthmus is frequently affected by disasters, such as earthquakes, tsunamis, floods, droughts, and land slides. Most of the disasters are related to atmospheric phenomena: tropical cyclones (hurricanes, tropical storms and depressions), El Niño/La Niña, severe storms (associated with cold fronts) and the inter-tropical convergence zone, among others. The purpose of this project is to assess the impacts of extreme events under climate change conditions on the water resources of Central America in the context of the region’s changing environment, economy and quality of life, and to design adaptation measures to be implemented by decision-makers. Regional climate change scenarios generated mainly from climate models and historical climate records will be used to identify vulnerabilities and potential impacts of climate change on water resources. The results of parallel extreme events analyses will be related to climate change conditions using statistical and dynamical analyses. Based on this, the impact on water resources, including implications for agriculture (irrigation), human water supply, environment, hydroelectricity, tourism and disasters management, will be assessed for different time horizons. Throughout the study, actual adaptation capacity will be addressed and evaluated, and adaptation mechanisms and options will be developed and communicated to decision-makers. Countries and sectors: Central America (Guatemala, Belize, Honduras, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Costa Rica and Panama). Water resources (including water supply and power generation) and interacting sectors, including agriculture, tourism and disaster management. (LA26) Impact of Global Change on the Coastal Areas of the Rio De La Plata: Sea Level Rise and Meteorological Effects (Vicente Barros, Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos, University of Buenos Aires, Argentina) This project will develop future scenarios, crossing time every 20 years, of the direct impact of the sea level rise on the coastal areas of the Rio de la Plata with specific attention to enhanced tidal flooding provoked by storms events. Sea level scenarios will be used as input for the studies and will be taken from the IPCC Third Assessment Report. The enhancement of the tidal floods is assumed to have a non-linear response to sea level rise and hence will be studied with a numerical model of the river forced by winds. Frequency and strength of storms over the region near the river will be studied, both with historical data and with a high-resolution atmospheric regional model. Coastal dynamics will be considered in all cases. Present social indicators of vulnerability to floods require further refinement to assess more precisely the direct population involved. After this step and according to physical impact projections, future social and economic impacts will be estimated. The methods and criteria for identifying and evaluating adaptation options will consider the involvement of stakeholders in their definition to assure that the analysis of adaptation is pragmatic and relevant to vulnerable populations. Activities between this study and the other AIACC-funded Rio de lat Plata study are complementary; collaboration will be promoted via data sharing, training, and coordination workshops. Countries and sectors: Argentina and Uruguay. Coastal zones and sea level rise. 9 AIACC Projects (LA27) Building Capacity to Assess Impact of Climate Change/Variability and Develop Adaptive Responses for the Mixed Crop/Livestock Production Systems in the Argentinean and Uruguayan Pampas (Agustín Gimenéz, Instituto Nacional de Investigación Agropecuaria, Uruguay) The Argentinean and Uruguayan Pampas constitute one of the major food producing regions of the world. This project aims to further develop capacity and to establish, use and maintain an agricultural systems network in the Pampas to assess the impact of climate change/variability and develop adaptive responses for the mixed grain/livestock production systems. This project is based on the premise that one of the most effective means for assisting agricultural stakeholders to be prepared and adapt to possible climate change is to help them better cope with current climate variability. The proposed activities will integrate crop/pasture simulation models and climate change scenarios in a common platform to assist planning and decision-making at the farm level. The developed system will be used to assess the impacts of climate change/climate variability on farmer income and to study the vulnerability of different types of mixed production systems. The integrated models will also be used to define whole-farm adaptive measurements better adjusted to cope with climate variability under current global climate scenarios. The system will then be used to identify whole-farm adaptive measurements for global climate change scenarios and impact assessment of policy decisions. Countries and sectors: Argentina and Uruguay; with application to other environments and production systems, particularly mixed crop/livestock systems. Agriculture. (LA29) Integrated Assessment of Social Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change Among Farmers in Mexico and Argentina (Carlos Gay, Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, Autonomous National University of Mexico, Mexico) This project will examine how farmers in Mexico and Argentina are adapting to multiple uncertainties originated, on the one hand, from an increased frequency of extreme climatic events, and, on the other, from dramatic socioeconomic changes associated with the embrace of neo-liberalism in the Americas. This project will address two principal questions: 1) To what degree is adaptation to climate change at the regional or farm level constrained and/or facilitated by current trends in institutional change and water and agricultural policy? and 2) How can new climate change and variability research be better integrated into practices and policies to assist agricultural adaptation? These questions are particularly pertinent to Mexico and Argentina, where climate events have had important implications for economic productivity and where dramatic water and agricultural policy shifts have occurred. The project will address these research questions through: 1) A rigorous development of new climate scenarios and variability analyses, specifically scaled to selected regions where key food and economic commodities are being produced, 2) An investigation of policy change, scientific information use and natural resource allocation in agriculture and water sectors, 3) Detailed ethnographies of selected commercial farming to determine how changes in water and agricultural sector policy are affecting farmers’ current adaptive capacities, and 4) A continual dialogue with key stakeholders in order to guide the research focus as it evolves and ultimately to develop concrete recommendations for improving adaptive capacity. Countries and sectors: Mexico and Argentina. Agriculture and water. 10 AIACC Projects (LA32) Assessing Global Change Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation Strategies for Estuarine Waters of the Rio de la Plata (Gustavo Nagy, Department of Ecology (Division of Oceanography), Uruguayan State University, Uruguay) The Rio de la Plata basin and estuary have been substantially influenced by human activities in recent decades, and are highly sensitive to climate extremes and changing precipitation patterns caused by climate change and variability. This project will develop regional hydroclimatic scenarios and assess impacts and vulnerability to climate change and variability in socioeconomic and environmental sectors for the Rio de la Plata. The study will include the development of reference projections (5-30 years) for a range of climate and non-climate factors to understand ecosystem response and obtain credible estimates of future impacts on salinity, nutrient-pollution, net ecosystem metabolism, fisheries resources, and aquatic biodiversity. Research will address a number of crosscutting factors important for assessing vulnerability, including changes in baseline socioeconomic conditions and assessment of adaptation costs. In order to orient scientific efforts toward effective management or policy decisions at the regional or national level, the project will lay the framework for an Adaptation Control Information System, which provides information and recommendations for developing anticipatory adaptation measures. The project team will identify, in consultation with other scientists and policy makers, which policies are most in need of immediate implementation, and analyze the costs and benefits of alternative adaptation strategies and current practices. Activities between this study and the other AIACC-funded Rio de lat Plata study are complementary; collaboration will be promoted via data sharing, training, and coordination workshops. Countries and sectors: Argentina and Uruguay. ecosystems. Water resources, coastal zone, and estuarine (SIS06) The Threat of Dengue Fever - Assessment of Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change in Human Health in the Caribbean (Anthony Chen, Department of Physics, University of the West Indies, Jamaica and Samuel Rawlins, Caribbean Epidemiology Centre) Research has revealed that the occurrence of dengue fever is sensitive to temperature increase and rainfall; thus projections of future climate change and associated changes in the hydrological cycle are therefore cause for serious concern. The starting point of this project will be the construction of climate and epidemiological databases of past and present climate and dengue indicators for the Caribbean region. Based on these databases, retrospective and prospective studies will be undertaken to determine epidemiological patterns of dengue fever and its vectors in relation to climate. Future projections of climate for the Caribbean will be downscaled from model outputs using SRES emission scenarios. These projections together with (i) relevant socio-economic information and (ii) knowledge gathered from the database analyses will form the basis for an analysis of impacts and adaptation strategies for climate change induced dengue. A pilot project will be designed for Jamaica to implement an integrated system capable of monitoring vector and disease, of forecasting climate and dengue incidence, and of undertaking diagnostics and adaptation applications for the near term (next 10 years). Adaptation strategies for the longer term will be evaluated based on knowledge gained during the project and experience gained during the pilot project. Countries and sectors: All 21 Caribbean Epidemiology Centre Member Countries will be included for general observations, but 4 countries – Jamaica, Barbados, Trinidad and Tobago and St. Kitts – will be targeted for specific study. Human health and disease. 11 AIACC Projects (SIS09) Integrated Methods and Models for Assessing Coastal Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in Pacific Island Countries (Kanayathu Koshy, Pacific Centre for Environment and Sustainable Development, The University of the South Pacific, Fiji) The project goal is to enhance the technical and human capacity of Pacific Island countries to assess vulnerability and adaptation to climate change, including variability. The project has three main objectives. First, to develop the “next generation” of integrated assessment methods and models, for application at island and sub-island scales. This objective will be met through research and methodological development that focuses on innovative improvements to the first-order, islandspecific models that have been developed over the last several years. The innovations relate to the development and incorporation of: sea-level scenario generator; human dimensions components; socio-economic baseline scenario generator; capacity for multi-scale (island, community-level, sitespecific) analyses; improved coastal impact models; explicit adaptation options; economic tools for evaluation; and “open architecture” features to improve versatility. Many of these advancements will be generic and thus applicable to other small island developing states. The second objective is to expand the understanding and knowledge concerning impacts and adaptation to climate change in the Pacific by implementing, testing and applying the improved methods in case studies representing low atoll and high volcanic island situations. The third objective is to build in-country research capacity through training in, and transfer of, the advanced methods and integrated assessment models. Countries and sectors: The Pacific island region, with case studies of a low atoll island (Aitutaki, Cook Islands), and a high volcanic island (Viti Levu, Fiji). Coasts, infrastructure, water resources, agriculture. (SIS90) Assessment of Impacts of Climate Change on Tourism in Small Island States Based Upon Field Studies in Seychelles and Comoros (Rolph Payet, Seychelles Climate Centre, Seychelles Ministry of Environment, Seychelles) The islands in the Indian Ocean lack natural resources and are dependent on tourism as a major source of foreign exchange. With the advancement of technology to provide a better understanding of the relationships between climate and tourism and appropriate adaptation options, early action can be implemented to effectively reduce the impact of climate change on tourism, hence the economic vulnerability of the island states to climate change. The goal of this study is to develop and test a quantitative and stakeholder-driven vulnerability assessment process, with emphasis on developing an adaptation decision framework to address the impacts of climate change on tourism-dependent coastal resources. The multidisciplinary team from Seychelles and Comoros will integrate stakeholder-based and quantitative research approaches to develop an enhanced adaptation decision framework that has been refined to address specific issues related to tourism in small island states. Countries and Sectors: The Indian Ocean Region, with field studies in Seychelles (Mahe & Praslin islands) and Comoros (Grand Comore, Anjouan & Moehli islands). Coastal and marine environment, stakeholders, and the tourism sector. 12