Download AIACC Regional Study Abstracts

AIACC Projects
(AF04) Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change by the Biodiversity Sector in Southern
Africa (Robert Scholes, CSIR Division of Water, Environment and Forest Technology, South
Africa)
The project aims to develop, test and promote tools for planned adaptation in the biodiversity
conservation sector. This involves developing more realistic ways of predicting the response of plant,
animal, bird and reptile species to a changing climate in the presence of a changing and fragmented
landscape. The project will analyze a range of adaptation options to determine which are the most
effective, cost-efficient, and robust. Three case studies, selected for their different environments and
data limitations, will be used as demonstrations of the techniques. Training and awareness-raising,
particularly among professional biodiversity managers and policy-makers within the South African
Development Community, is an important part of the project.
Countries and sectors: South Africa, with applicability to southern Africa and elsewhere. The core
sector is biodiversity conservation in both the public and private sectors; including partial integration
with the Agriculture, Tourism and Water Supply sectors insofar as they impact biodiversity
conservation options.
(AF14) Environmental Strategies for Increasing Human Resilience in Sudan: Lessons for
Climate Change Adaptation in North and East Africa (Balgis M. Osman and Nagmeldin Goubti,
Higher Council for Environment and Natural Resources, Sudan, and Erika Spanger-Siegfried,
Stockholm Environment Institute, USA)
This project aims to identify cost-effective environmental management measures that can contribute
most to the resilience and adaptive capacity of vulnerable communities and agricultural systems in
Sudan and other drought-prone countries. A series of four case studies in disaster-struck regions of
Sudan will be utilized to explore the relative resilience of communities and the productive systems on
which they depend (specifically agriculture, including food crop production, silviculture and animal
husbandry) to climate-related disasters and long-term climate change. In addition, a series of synthesis
reports and training modules, and the development of a national and regional network that includes
relevant Sudanese and North African organizations, will serve to strengthen the capacity of key actors
(including decision-makers, researchers, community-based groups and intergovernmental agencies) in
Sudan and surrounding countries to respond to climate change vulnerability with affordable adaptation
options. Through this research, the project may succeed in bringing to light those environmental
management measures that can provide a ‘triple dividend’ - decreased climate-related disaster
vulnerability, reduced demand for international humanitarian assistance in disaster response and
recovery, and achievement of national and global sustainable development objectives.
Countries and sectors: Sudan in particular, North Africa in general. Agriculture, including crop
production, livestock, and silviculture.
1
AIACC Projects
(AF23) Food Security and Climate Change in Sub-Saharan West Africa (James Adejuwon,
Department of Geography, Obafemi Awolowo University, Nigeria)
The primary objective of the project is to undertake a study of the vulnerability of food crop
production to inter-annual climate variability and extreme weather events in West Africa and to assess
how extended weather and climate forecasts could be employed as a basic adaptation strategy to
ameliorate the impacts. This project will build on the existing capacity to predict climate variability
on time scales ranging from weeks (intra-seasonal) to months (inter-seasonal), to years to improve
management and decision-making in the production of food crops in West Africa. EPIC (Erosion
Productivity Impact Calculator) will be introduced as a crop model most suitable for relating the
climatic factor to economic yield of crops. The model will be used to assess the impacts of climate
variability on the major crops. Based on demonstrated sensitivity of the major crops to climate
variability, a suite of options will be developed and evaluated as responses to the various categories of
predictable upcoming seasonal and annual weather to enhance crop yields and food production. The
outlook for food security within the context of climate change, and adaptive capacity during the 21 st
Century will also be assessed on the basis of the results of the climate variability study.
Countries and sectors: Nigeria and Niger Republic in particular, Sub Saharan West Africa in general.
Agriculture and food security.
(AF38) Integrated Assessment of Miombo Region: Exploration of Impacts and Adaptation
Options in Relation to Climate Change and Extremes (Paul Desanker, Department of
Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, USA, and Manuel Ferrao, Centro Nacional de
Cartografica e Teledeteccao, Mozambique)
The goal of this project is to assess vulnerability and explore adaptation options to climate variability
and extreme events in the Miombo region, including areas of Malawi, Zambia, Zimbabwe, and
Mozambique that lie within the drainage basin of the Zambezi River. An interdisciplinary team of
social and natural scientists, managers, policy advisors and general public will be identified to form a
regional assessment team that will participate in summer institutes to carry out the project. Primary
emphasis will be on land use and its impacts on food production systems and food security, as well as
impacts on land use changes on water; all within the context of climate change. The team will develop
critical datasets and scenarios of land use change, a regional integrated model, and other tools for
analyzing impacts and adaptation for the region, including a case study approach to document
climate–land use–people–ecosystem interlinkages and interactions to guide adaptation planning. The
data, models and case study results will be applied to assess vulnerability of life and livelihoods and
identify critical adaptation plans of action in the Zambezi/Miombo region under future climate change,
with particular emphasis on droughts and floods.
Countries and sectors: Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. Food, water, land use, life and
livelihoods, national physical planning including National Adaptation Programmes of Action
(NAPAs).
2
AIACC Projects
(AF42) Impacts of Climate Change, Vulnerability and Adaptation Capacity in the Limpopo
Basin of Semi-Arid Land Southern Africa: The Case of Eastern Botswana (Opha Pauline Dube,
Department of Environmental Science, University of Botswana, Botswana)
A detailed assessment of impacts of climate change on water and food resources in the Limpopo basin
in the eastern part of Botswana will be conducted in close association with local communities,
government departments, the private sector and relevant NGOs. The study will ascertain the degree of
vulnerability and capacity to adapt to climate change and identify strategies to enhance locally based
adaptation options. Past responses to climate variations and socio-economic and climatic interactions
will be used as a baseline to project future impacts and vulnerability to climate change on food and
water across different income groups. Future projections will extend over 20 years and a range of
climate and socio-economic scenarios based on the IPCC SRES scenarios will be used. An integrated
assessment approach will be used to elucidate linkages in food and water with respect to climate, land
use activities, socio-economic, political and cultural factors. This information will form the basis for
valuing the likely loss from climate change impacts on the Limpopo basin, estimated in monetary
value relative to the national GDP where adaptation measures are not implemented.
Countries and sectors: Botswana in particular, southern Africa in general. Ecosystems, water and food
resources.
(AF47) Capacity Building in Analytical Tools for Estimating and Comparing Costs and Benefits
of Adaptation Projects in Africa (Ogunlade Davidson, Energy and Development Research Centre,
University of Capetown, South Africa)
The key objective of this project is to help build and strengthen the institutional capacity within Africa
to develop and implement analytical tools for estimating and comparing the costs and benefits of
adaptation projects in key economic sectors. The project will build upon an earlier adaptation cost
framework to define and develop relevant metrics for estimating and comparing the costs and benefits
of some adaptation projects to be developed under AIACC. The project will focus on developing and
applying a framework for estimating and comparing adaptation costs in Southern Africa and West
Africa. Specific adaptation projects selected will be from the following sectors/impact areas:
agriculture, energy supply and demand, fresh water resource supply, freshwater resource quality,
flooding of freshwater bodies, and sea-level rise. Results from the study will contribute to the
development of international climate change policies and programs, particularly in regard to adaptation
activities in developing countries under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC).
Countries and sectors: Southern and West Africa. Various sectors to be selected (see above).
3
AIACC Projects
(AF07) Development of Regional Climate Change Scenarios for Sub-Saharan Africa (Bruce
Hewitson, Climate System Analysis Group, University of Cape Town, South Africa)
Africa is one of the regions most vulnerable to climate change, is likely the most under-resourced
continent for climate change research, and a region where the climate dynamics are still poorly
understood. In response this project seeks to address these needs through the development of regional
scenarios from GCM climate change simulations. A primary component of this work will be to extend
existing capacity among African scientists in issues of method and implementation for regional
scenario construction. The scenarios will be focused on spatial and temporal scales appropriate to the
primary vulnerability sectors in Africa, and incorporate computationally efficient empirical
downscaling and the more demanding regional climate models -- both of which have been identified in
the IPCC 2001 Third Assessment Report as having equal skill with respective advantages in different
impact sectors. Substantial capacity has already been developed at the host institution and through a
number of activities undertaken in regional capacity development. This capacity is supplemented by
strong international links with all phases of scenario development. The project will provide an
extension to these capacity building initiatives, and provide for the first time a comprehensive scenario
base for IPCC and related impacts activities in Africa.
Countries and sectors: Sub-Sahara Africa. Regional scenarios.
(AF20) Assessing Global And Regional Climate Change Scenarios for West Africa (Amadou
Gaye, Laboratory for Atmospheric Physics, Cheik Anta Diop University, Senegal)
This project seeks to build capacity for assessing climate change scenarios from global and regional
climate model simulations for use in impact studies in West Africa. The project will address the need
to (a) Assess global circulation model (GCM) and regional climate model simulations for present and
future climate states in order to examine the processes that bring about new climate states; (b)
Determine whether these changes are realistic given the current understanding of the West African
Climate system; and (c) Provide model output to other disciplines to examine how potential changes in
climate might affect key sectors on national and regional scales in West Africa. An important
component of this proposal is capacity building of West Africa institutions. The project will build the
capacity of the Laboratory for Atmospheric Physics at Cheik Anta Diop University of Senegal to
undertake regional climate model simulations and act as a center for research and learning. In addition
to the assessment described above, the Laboratory will host a regional climate model workshop to
show participants how to run the regional climate models, analyze regional and global climate model
output that is relevant for West Africa, and produce visualization of this data.
Countries and sectors: West Africa (Equator-30N, 15W-20E). Regional scenarios.
4
AIACC Projects
(AF90) Assessment of Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability to Climate Change in North
Africa: Food Production and Water Resources. (Ayman F. Abou Hadid, Central Laboratory for
Agricultural Climate)
This study will enhance scientific and technical capacity in countries in North Africa for: (1) assessing
current and future adaptive capacity and vulnerability of food production and water resources; (2)
enhancing adaptive capacity in current and future conditions; and (3) synthesizing lessons learned in
the region. The project will compare the results of three case studies representing a range of climate
and agricultural systems (Nile Delta (Egypt), Settat Province (Morocco), Center Region (Tunisia)) and
integrate the results in a North Africa wide context. Research activities will focus on stakeholder
engagement at three levels (farm, sub-national resource managers, and national administrative
agencies), climate impacts detections (via empirical-statistical analysis, modeling, and case studies),
and evaluation of adaptation methods. One major output of the research will be the integration of
climate information, scenarios of future climate and socio-economic conditions, and vulnerability in
the form of a vulnerability index that stakeholders can evaluate and determine applicability. This
study will enhance the ability of the agriculture sector to interact with and respond to climate
information in preparation for the projected range of climate changes through the 21st century and
increase the capacity of society to adapt to climate variability and change.
Countries and sectors: Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia. Agriculture, water.
(AF91) Capacity Building to Evaluate and Adapt to Climate Change-Induced Vulnerability to
Malaria and Cholera in the Lake Victoria Region (Shem Wandiga, National Academy of
Sciences, Kenya)
The focus of this study is to improve the understanding of the relationship between climate change
parameters (precipitation and temperature) and the incidences of malaria and cholera in the Lake
Victoria region (Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania). The study will start with characterization of baseline
temperature and precipitation variability and apply existing climate models and scenarios to estimate
possible perturbations to these conditions. GIS layers will be constructed using historical climate and
disease data and used to select pilot study sites. Time series analyses will be used to correlate the
relationship between climate and disease incidences. In order to assess vulnerability of pilot groups,
the teams will use participatory methodologies and socio-economic analysis tools, including
retrospective and prospective data analysis to estimate the excess risk of malaria and cholera that may
be attributable to future climate change. The study team will identify priority risk groups based on
exposure potential, work with pilot populations (representative of priority risk groups) to distinguish
risk management strategies and select preferred options to inform policy. The study will incorporate
capacity building in global change research in all its activities, by engaging stakeholders and scientists
in the region.
Countries and sectors: Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda. Human health (disease), water.
5
AIACC Projects
(AF92) Rural Households and Drought in the Sahel Region of West Africa: Vulnerability and
Effective Mitigation Measures (A. A. Adepetu, Center for Environmental Resources and Hazards
Research, Department of Geography and Planning, University of Jos, Nigeria)
The objective of this study is to identify the groups most vulnerable to climate variability and change,
and understand the nature of this vulnerability in relation to adaptive capacity. A number of villages
and communities in Nigeria and Mali will be selected for inclusion in the project and will be stratified
into levels of drought severity based on existing indices and stakeholder consultation. Combining
climate data from historical and baseline records, and non-climate data that will be obtained through
stakeholder consultations using ethnographic and participatory research, the study will build an impact
model for the study region. A guided sensitivity analysis will be carried out on the impact model by
applying incremental scenarios based on changes to the key climatic variables as produced by GCMs,
which contribute to the impact model. Impact thresholds will be established, first with stakeholders,
after which a quantitative measure would be derived for ease of comparison across regions. A risk
analysis will then be performed to calculate the risk of exceeding given impact thresholds for various
groups. Finally, the actual and potential coping/adaptation strategies of the people will be evaluated.
These results will be communicated to stakeholders via workshops, reports and peer-reviewed
publications. The study will be gender sensitive, as the various groups will be further disaggregated by
sex in the model.
Countries and sectors: Nigeria and Mali. Agriculture, extremes (drought).
(AS06) Potential Impacts of Climate Change and Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment for
Grassland Ecosystem and Livestock Sector in Mongolia (Punsalmaa Batima, Institute of
Meteorology and Hydrology, Mongolia)
In Mongolia the risk of climate change and/or extreme climatic events could have dramatic impacts on
the economy and natural systems. Particularly vulnerable is the rangeland and livestock sector, which
occupies about 80% of Mongolia’s territory. As land use intensity and the frequency and magnitude
of climate variability rise, the resilience and adaptive capacity of traditional networks and land use
systems to cope with climate variability/extremes weaken. This project aims to comprehensively
assess the impacts, vulnerability, and adaptive capacity of the rangeland and livestock sector in
Mongolia to climate change. Impacts will be evaluated through the quantitative and qualitative
estimation of potential productivity of under different climate change scenarios. A combination of
ecosystem modeling, remote sensing data, analysis of existing long-term plant dynamics and climate
databases, and field surveys will be used to investigate climate and land use changes effects on
grassland ecosystem structure and function. Particular priority will be placed on the study of
interactions between climate, grassland and pastoral systems, and social institutions in order to assess
vulnerability and adaptive capacity of the integrated system and ultimately support environmental
planning and decision-making.
Countries and sectors: Mongolia. Natural resources, grassland ecosystem, livestock, pastoral society,
socio-economic system.
6
AIACC Projects
(AS07) Southeast Asia Regional Vulnerability to Changing Water Resource and Extreme
Hydrological Events due to Climate Change (Anond Snidvongs, Southeast Asia START
Regional Center, Thailand)
This project will use high-resolution climate and hydrological scenarios as the basis for assessing
vulnerability of social and economic sectors in Mekong river basin to changing water regimes due to
climate and land cover changes. This will be accomplished by an assessment team in concert with an
expert workshop series. Expert at the first workshop will identify the data requirements for the
assessment of impact on several water-related issues – including water quantity, extreme events, water
quality, aquatic habitats, fisheries and living resources and other – and will guide data acquisition and
scenario development. The second workshop will identify which social and economic sectors in each
basin will be affected by changing water resources. Detailed vulnerability assessments will be made
according to the workshop output, and will form the basis for the third workshop. Experts at the third
workshop will identify, evaluate and recommend adaptation strategies and options for affected sectors
in the Mekong river basin as well as for the Southeast Asia region in general. The outcome of this
third workshop will be compiled and translated into 4 major Southeast Asian languages in the lower
Mekong river basin to provide access to policy makers across the region.
Countries and sectors: The study will focus in the lower Mekong river basin, which is Southeast
Asia region, and consist of Cambodia, Lao PDR, Thailand and Viet Nam. Water resources and sectors
affected by changes in water resources.
(AS12) Assessment of the Impacts of and Adaptations to Climate Change in the Plantation
Sector, with Particular Reference to Coconut and Tea, in Sri Lanka (Janaka Ratnasiri, Sri Lanka
Association for the Advancement of Science, Sri Lanka)
This project aims to assess impacts and adaptation options for the plantation sector in Sri Lanka, with
specific emphasis on coconut and tea. Coconut and tea are two economically important crops in Sri
Lanka and other South and Southeast Asian countries, and are extremely sensitive to drought
conditions. Any decline in their production due to anticipated climate change would affect a large
number of people and national economies, which are largely dependent on the export revenue from
these crops. This will be accomplished by developing scenarios of future climate and crop production
using baseline data on climate, crops, and socio-economic conditions at the farm and national level.
Crop-weather and integrated assessment models will be calibrated to local conditions and used to
assess impacts on the production system, including economic factors, such as changes in labor force,
markets and trade. Using the scenarios and integrated assessment models, cost-effective adaptation
strategies will be identified, evaluated, and communicated to planters. A set of guidelines for
appropriate policy measures for mitigating the impacts and implementing adaptation strategies will be
recommended, which could be applied at the national level in Sri Lanka, and to the South and
Southeast Asian region generally.
Countries and sectors: Sri Lanka in particular, South and Southeast Asia in general. Plantation
agriculture.
7
AIACC Projects
(AS21) An Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability in
Watershed Areas and Communities in Southeast Asia (Rodel Lasco, University of the Philippines
at Los Baños College of Forestry and Natural Resources, Philippines)
Watersheds are critical to economic development and environmental protection in Southeast Asia, and
are likely to be affected by future climate change. This project will assess the impacts of climate
change and associated land use and cover change on water resources, forest ecosystems, and social
systems of watersheds in Southeast Asia. The project leaders will conduct studies in selected
watersheds of Philippines and Indonesia, respectively, and will provide training and technical
assistance to scientists from Indo-China on research methods to be implemented in their watersheds.
Future climate scenarios will be developed and downscaled, and the results will be used in conjunction
with a climate-vegetation model to predict future land use and cover change. The impacts of climate
and land use/cover change will be assessed with measures of change in biodiversity, carbon and water
budgets, livelihood, health, demographic shifts, and changes in social structure resulting from climate
and land use/cover change. The project team will conduct an integrated vulnerability assessment of
natural and social systems in the watershed, and will develop and evaluate adaptation strategies.
Research findings and policy implications will be presented to policy makers and development
workers.
Countries and sectors: Philippines, Indonesia, and Indo-China (Laos, Vietnam, Cambodia). Water
resources, forest ecosystems.
(AS25) Integrated Assessments of Vulnerabilities and Adaptation to Climate Variability and
Change in the Western Region of China (Yongyuan Yin, International Earth System Sciences
Institute at Nanjing University, People’s Republic of China, and Sustainable Development
Research Institute at the University of British Columbia, Canada)
With barriers such as extremely fragile ecological conditions, few financial resources, poor
infrastructure, low levels of education, and little access to technology and markets, Western China has
been suffering from climate variations and will experience severe impacts of climate change on food
production, water resources, and human health. In this project, an integrated approach will be
developed for identifying regional vulnerabilities to climate variations and change, and for prioritizing
adaptation options to deal with climate change vulnerability. Different methods will be used to form
the integrated approach, including surveys, workshops, multi-stakeholder consultation, ecological
simulation modeling, geographical information system (GIS), remote sensing, and multi-criteria
decision-making. The project will addresses the following questions: 1) How vulnerable is Western
China to current climate variations and future climatee change in key sectors? 2) What can the
vulnerabilities of these key sectors to present climate variations teach us about future vulnerability?
and 3) What are the desirable adaptation options to deal effectively with future climate change? The
ultimate aims of this project are to build scientific capacity in the region and suggest practical
adaptation options and/or policies to effectively handle climate change impacts and ensure sustainable
development.
Countries and sectors: Western China. Food supply, water shortage, land use conflicts, desertification,
salinization, ecosystem deterioration, and railway construction in Tibetan permafrost region.
8
AIACC Projects
(LA06) Assessment of Impacts and Adaptation Measures for the Water Resources Sector Due to
Extreme Events Under Climate Change Conditions in Central America (Walter Fernández,
Laboratory for Atmospheric and Planetary Research, School of Physics, University of Costa Rica,
Costa Rica)
The Central American Isthmus is frequently affected by disasters, such as earthquakes, tsunamis,
floods, droughts, and land slides. Most of the disasters are related to atmospheric phenomena: tropical
cyclones (hurricanes, tropical storms and depressions), El Niño/La Niña, severe storms (associated
with cold fronts) and the inter-tropical convergence zone, among others. The purpose of this project is
to assess the impacts of extreme events under climate change conditions on the water resources of
Central America in the context of the region’s changing environment, economy and quality of life, and
to design adaptation measures to be implemented by decision-makers. Regional climate change
scenarios generated mainly from climate models and historical climate records will be used to identify
vulnerabilities and potential impacts of climate change on water resources. The results of parallel
extreme events analyses will be related to climate change conditions using statistical and dynamical
analyses. Based on this, the impact on water resources, including implications for agriculture
(irrigation), human water supply, environment, hydroelectricity, tourism and disasters management,
will be assessed for different time horizons. Throughout the study, actual adaptation capacity will be
addressed and evaluated, and adaptation mechanisms and options will be developed and
communicated to decision-makers.
Countries and sectors: Central America (Guatemala, Belize, Honduras, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Costa
Rica and Panama). Water resources (including water supply and power generation) and interacting
sectors, including agriculture, tourism and disaster management.
(LA26) Impact of Global Change on the Coastal Areas of the Rio De La Plata: Sea Level Rise
and Meteorological Effects (Vicente Barros, Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los
Océanos, University of Buenos Aires, Argentina)
This project will develop future scenarios, crossing time every 20 years, of the direct impact of the sea
level rise on the coastal areas of the Rio de la Plata with specific attention to enhanced tidal flooding
provoked by storms events. Sea level scenarios will be used as input for the studies and will be taken
from the IPCC Third Assessment Report. The enhancement of the tidal floods is assumed to have a
non-linear response to sea level rise and hence will be studied with a numerical model of the river
forced by winds. Frequency and strength of storms over the region near the river will be studied, both
with historical data and with a high-resolution atmospheric regional model. Coastal dynamics will be
considered in all cases. Present social indicators of vulnerability to floods require further refinement to
assess more precisely the direct population involved. After this step and according to physical impact
projections, future social and economic impacts will be estimated. The methods and criteria for
identifying and evaluating adaptation options will consider the involvement of stakeholders in their
definition to assure that the analysis of adaptation is pragmatic and relevant to vulnerable populations.
Activities between this study and the other AIACC-funded Rio de lat Plata study are complementary;
collaboration will be promoted via data sharing, training, and coordination workshops.
Countries and sectors: Argentina and Uruguay. Coastal zones and sea level rise.
9
AIACC Projects
(LA27) Building Capacity to Assess Impact of Climate Change/Variability and Develop
Adaptive Responses for the Mixed Crop/Livestock Production Systems in the Argentinean and
Uruguayan Pampas (Agustín Gimenéz, Instituto Nacional de Investigación Agropecuaria,
Uruguay)
The Argentinean and Uruguayan Pampas constitute one of the major food producing regions of the
world. This project aims to further develop capacity and to establish, use and maintain an agricultural
systems network in the Pampas to assess the impact of climate change/variability and develop adaptive
responses for the mixed grain/livestock production systems. This project is based on the premise that
one of the most effective means for assisting agricultural stakeholders to be prepared and adapt to
possible climate change is to help them better cope with current climate variability. The proposed
activities will integrate crop/pasture simulation models and climate change scenarios in a common
platform to assist planning and decision-making at the farm level. The developed system will be used
to assess the impacts of climate change/climate variability on farmer income and to study the
vulnerability of different types of mixed production systems. The integrated models will also be used
to define whole-farm adaptive measurements better adjusted to cope with climate variability under
current global climate scenarios. The system will then be used to identify whole-farm adaptive
measurements for global climate change scenarios and impact assessment of policy decisions.
Countries and sectors: Argentina and Uruguay; with application to other environments and production
systems, particularly mixed crop/livestock systems. Agriculture.
(LA29) Integrated Assessment of Social Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Variability
and Change Among Farmers in Mexico and Argentina (Carlos Gay, Centro de Ciencias de la
Atmósfera, Autonomous National University of Mexico, Mexico)
This project will examine how farmers in Mexico and Argentina are adapting to multiple uncertainties
originated, on the one hand, from an increased frequency of extreme climatic events, and, on the other,
from dramatic socioeconomic changes associated with the embrace of neo-liberalism in the Americas.
This project will address two principal questions: 1) To what degree is adaptation to climate change at
the regional or farm level constrained and/or facilitated by current trends in institutional change and
water and agricultural policy? and 2) How can new climate change and variability research be better
integrated into practices and policies to assist agricultural adaptation? These questions are particularly
pertinent to Mexico and Argentina, where climate events have had important implications for
economic productivity and where dramatic water and agricultural policy shifts have occurred. The
project will address these research questions through: 1) A rigorous development of new climate
scenarios and variability analyses, specifically scaled to selected regions where key food and
economic commodities are being produced, 2) An investigation of policy change, scientific
information use and natural resource allocation in agriculture and water sectors, 3) Detailed
ethnographies of selected commercial farming to determine how changes in water and agricultural
sector policy are affecting farmers’ current adaptive capacities, and 4) A continual dialogue with key
stakeholders in order to guide the research focus as it evolves and ultimately to develop concrete
recommendations for improving adaptive capacity.
Countries and sectors: Mexico and Argentina. Agriculture and water.
10
AIACC Projects
(LA32) Assessing Global Change Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation Strategies for
Estuarine Waters of the Rio de la Plata (Gustavo Nagy, Department of Ecology (Division of
Oceanography), Uruguayan State University, Uruguay)
The Rio de la Plata basin and estuary have been substantially influenced by human activities in recent
decades, and are highly sensitive to climate extremes and changing precipitation patterns caused by
climate change and variability. This project will develop regional hydroclimatic scenarios and assess
impacts and vulnerability to climate change and variability in socioeconomic and environmental
sectors for the Rio de la Plata. The study will include the development of reference projections (5-30
years) for a range of climate and non-climate factors to understand ecosystem response and obtain
credible estimates of future impacts on salinity, nutrient-pollution, net ecosystem metabolism, fisheries
resources, and aquatic biodiversity. Research will address a number of crosscutting factors important
for assessing vulnerability, including changes in baseline socioeconomic conditions and assessment of
adaptation costs. In order to orient scientific efforts toward effective management or policy decisions
at the regional or national level, the project will lay the framework for an Adaptation Control
Information System, which provides information and recommendations for developing anticipatory
adaptation measures. The project team will identify, in consultation with other scientists and policy
makers, which policies are most in need of immediate implementation, and analyze the costs and
benefits of alternative adaptation strategies and current practices.
Activities between this study and the other AIACC-funded Rio de lat Plata study are complementary;
collaboration will be promoted via data sharing, training, and coordination workshops.
Countries and sectors: Argentina and Uruguay.
ecosystems.
Water resources, coastal zone, and estuarine
(SIS06) The Threat of Dengue Fever - Assessment of Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change
in Human Health in the Caribbean (Anthony Chen, Department of Physics, University of the West
Indies, Jamaica and Samuel Rawlins, Caribbean Epidemiology Centre)
Research has revealed that the occurrence of dengue fever is sensitive to temperature increase and
rainfall; thus projections of future climate change and associated changes in the hydrological cycle are
therefore cause for serious concern. The starting point of this project will be the construction of
climate and epidemiological databases of past and present climate and dengue indicators for the
Caribbean region. Based on these databases, retrospective and prospective studies will be undertaken
to determine epidemiological patterns of dengue fever and its vectors in relation to climate. Future
projections of climate for the Caribbean will be downscaled from model outputs using SRES emission
scenarios. These projections together with (i) relevant socio-economic information and (ii) knowledge
gathered from the database analyses will form the basis for an analysis of impacts and adaptation
strategies for climate change induced dengue. A pilot project will be designed for Jamaica to
implement an integrated system capable of monitoring vector and disease, of forecasting climate and
dengue incidence, and of undertaking diagnostics and adaptation applications for the near term (next
10 years). Adaptation strategies for the longer term will be evaluated based on knowledge gained
during the project and experience gained during the pilot project.
Countries and sectors: All 21 Caribbean Epidemiology Centre Member Countries will be included for
general observations, but 4 countries – Jamaica, Barbados, Trinidad and Tobago and St. Kitts – will be
targeted for specific study. Human health and disease.
11
AIACC Projects
(SIS09) Integrated Methods and Models for Assessing Coastal Vulnerability and Adaptation to
Climate Change in Pacific Island Countries (Kanayathu Koshy, Pacific Centre for Environment
and Sustainable Development, The University of the South Pacific, Fiji)
The project goal is to enhance the technical and human capacity of Pacific Island countries to assess
vulnerability and adaptation to climate change, including variability. The project has three main
objectives. First, to develop the “next generation” of integrated assessment methods and models, for
application at island and sub-island scales. This objective will be met through research and
methodological development that focuses on innovative improvements to the first-order, islandspecific models that have been developed over the last several years. The innovations relate to the
development and incorporation of: sea-level scenario generator; human dimensions components;
socio-economic baseline scenario generator; capacity for multi-scale (island, community-level, sitespecific) analyses; improved coastal impact models; explicit adaptation options; economic tools for
evaluation; and “open architecture” features to improve versatility. Many of these advancements will
be generic and thus applicable to other small island developing states. The second objective is to
expand the understanding and knowledge concerning impacts and adaptation to climate change in the
Pacific by implementing, testing and applying the improved methods in case studies representing low
atoll and high volcanic island situations. The third objective is to build in-country research capacity
through training in, and transfer of, the advanced methods and integrated assessment models.
Countries and sectors: The Pacific island region, with case studies of a low atoll island (Aitutaki,
Cook Islands), and a high volcanic island (Viti Levu, Fiji). Coasts, infrastructure, water resources,
agriculture.
(SIS90) Assessment of Impacts of Climate Change on Tourism in Small Island States Based
Upon Field Studies in Seychelles and Comoros (Rolph Payet, Seychelles Climate Centre,
Seychelles Ministry of Environment, Seychelles)
The islands in the Indian Ocean lack natural resources and are dependent on tourism as a major source
of foreign exchange. With the advancement of technology to provide a better understanding of the
relationships between climate and tourism and appropriate adaptation options, early action can be
implemented to effectively reduce the impact of climate change on tourism, hence the economic
vulnerability of the island states to climate change. The goal of this study is to develop and test a
quantitative and stakeholder-driven vulnerability assessment process, with emphasis on developing an
adaptation decision framework to address the impacts of climate change on tourism-dependent coastal
resources. The multidisciplinary team from Seychelles and Comoros will integrate stakeholder-based
and quantitative research approaches to develop an enhanced adaptation decision framework that has
been refined to address specific issues related to tourism in small island states.
Countries and Sectors: The Indian Ocean Region, with field studies in Seychelles (Mahe & Praslin
islands) and Comoros (Grand Comore, Anjouan & Moehli islands). Coastal and marine environment,
stakeholders, and the tourism sector.
12