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Download Sustainable Responses to Climate Change MKE July 2016
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Sustainable Responses to Climate Change Alberto Vargas July 6th, 2016 Outline • The issue: what is at stake? – LAC contributions – Impacts • Status: Frameworks and LAC in the context of Paris - COP21 • Some responses: – Nivela – Costa Rica – Future Earth • Conclusions and Resources Global Warming and Climate Change – What is at Stake? • Energy provision using fossil fuels (80% now) since industrial revolution • CO2 and other GHG (Greenhouse Gases) • Great Acceleration since (1750) and more obvious since 1950s • Warming due to CO2 known since 1812.. Confirmed in 1988 (Hansen) • Attempts to “do something about it” since 1992 Great Acceleration and Anthropocene Source: www.columbia.edu Source: www.mahurangi.org.nz Impacts of CC in LAC • Extreme weather events – Floods, droughts, hurricanes, heat waves • Sea Level Rising – E.g. Panama • Loss of Glaciers in the Andes • Displacement of crops and pests • Coral reefs blanching and degradation Hurricane Mitch, 1998 Sea level rising in Panama Receding Glaciers Chacaltaya, Bolivia Chronology of Negotiations • 1988 – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – Regular assessments • June 1992 – Rio Summit – un Framework Convention on Climate Change (unfcc) • Dec 1997 – Kyoto Protocol signed (limit emissions and carbon trade) • Nov 2004 – Kyoto protocol enacted after Russia ratifies it. US did not ratified it. Chronology… • Dec 2009 – COP 15 in Copenhagen. (Weak commitments as Kyoto set to expire in 2012) • Dec 2011 – COP 17 in Durban agrees to work towards an agreement for 2015 • Nov 2014 – China and US agree on a bilateral commitment, making Paris meeting viable. • Dec 2014 – COP 20 in Lima. Draft of a text for Paris. Switzerland submits INDC in Feb 2015. COP 21 – Paris Agreement in a Nutshell • Universal – 196 countries agreed • Goal – Keep warming to a maximum of 2o C; try to keep it under 1.5o C. • Voluntary – Based on Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs). Presented by 187 countries….Aggregate Not Enough!!!! • Periodic Review – Every 5 years. Starting in 2018, hoping to adjust reductions to goal. COP 21 ….. • Mid and Long Term – Need to peak and then reduce emissions. Goal zero net emissions in second half of XXI Century. • Externalization – For example carbon sequestration and forest conservation.. • Damages and Losses – Mechanisms to absorb collectively vulnerable countries losses and damages. • Transparency and Finances - $100 billion per year for mitigation and adaptation (but not binding). Bottom Line – Paris COP 21 • “By comparison to what it could have been, it’s a miracle. By comparison to what it should have been, it’s a disaster.” George Monbiot, The Guardian INDCs in Latin America Source: www.eyeonlatinamerica.com Emissions Gap Emissions Gap • The emissions gap is the difference between pledges made this year by individual countries about their greenhouse gas emissions through 2030, and what's needed to have a good chance of keeping global warming below the 2°C target. 3 key numbers to understand Paris • 2o Centigrades……The goal • 565 gigatons …….CO2 we can release to goal • 2,795 gigatons…..Reserves of fossil fuels • Annual release of CO2 …… 36 gigatons Other key numbers • 407.7 ppm …..CO2 in May 2016 • 280 ppm ………CO2 before industrial revolution • 350 ppm ……… CO2 “safe”level Responses and Good News in LAC • Efforts to maintain forest cover in the region • Efforts to maintain biodiversity in the region • Amazon basin and river system still in good condition • Aims towards a clean energy matrix (hydro and renewables) Some responses to follow • • • • • • • C-Change and integral approach Nivela (Costa Rica) Big History project Displacement Solutions Future Earth CEPAL LAC Webinars Karen O’Brien https://cchange.no/about/ Integral approach (Karen O’Brien and Michael Zimmerman) Integral Ecology and Pope Francis Nivela (Costa Rica) www.nivela.org Ecuador: Not so good response www.geoyasuni.org Yasuni and Oil