Download HSS_Interviews_07_27_08

HSS on Haiti Focus
Meeting Info:
Date:
July 27, 2008
Time:
7:30-8:00 AM
Place:
WMBR Radio 88.1 FM
Attendees:
Name
Cornely, Pierre-Richard
Brutus Leaderson
Title
HSS Public Relations Representative
HSS
Science Ak Progres
Sponsored by
The Haitian Scientific Society (HSS)
BRUTUS Section 1
In the last 6 to10 years, there has been a lot of debates, discussion as well as scientific studies on
the subject of Global Warming. In the last show, we revisited the subject and we tried to explain
to the audience some of the parameters related to global Warming in some detail. Today, we
would like to continue developing an understanding of Global Warming, in particular, its present
and future effects effects on our planet. We would also like to understand the relationship
between Global warming and the frequency and amount of rain in relation to the variation in the
earth’s temperature.
BRUTUS – Section 2
Fisr, I would like to go back over What Global Warming is, and Where it comes from
Pierre-Richard Cornely – Section 2
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Global warming is the increase in the average measured temperature of the Earth's near-surface
air and oceans since the mid-twentieth century, and its projected continuation. The available
research on the subject matter attributes Globa Warming to the following:

The average global air temperature near the Earth's surface increased 0.74 ± 0.18 °C
(1.33 ± 0.32 °F) during the hundred years ending in 2005.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has concluded the fiollowing:
"most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-twentieth
century is very likely due to the observed increase in man-made “greenhouse gas”
concentrations via an enhanced greenhouse effect.
o

Greenhouse gases (or gaz a effet de serre, ou piégeage du rayonnement infrarouge
du soleil entre les parois transparentes)
Natural phenomena such as solar variation combined with volcanoes also have a small
warming effect from pre-industrial times to 1950 and a small cooling effect from 1950
onward.
These basic conclusions have been endorsed by at least thirty scientific societies and academies
of science including all of the national academies of science of the major industrialized
countries.
While individual scientists have voiced disagreement with some findings of the IPCC, the
overwhelming majority of scientists working on climate change agree with the IPCC's main
conclusions.
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Temperature Anomaly (oC)
When taking a more careful and deeper look at Global Warming we come across the following
observations:

The Earth's climate has been changing in response to external forces within the earth’s
atmosphere. These external forces include but are not limited to the variations of the
earth’sorbit around the Sun (orbital forces), changes in solar flux, the increase
proliferation of volcanic eruptions, and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations.

The detailed causes of the recent warming remain an active field of research, but the
scientific consensus is that the increase in atmospheric greenhouse gases due to human
activity caused most of the warming observed since the start of the industrial era. This
attribution is clearest for the most recent 50 years, for which the most detailed scientific
data are available.

Greenhouse gases play the role of heat retention in the atmosphere. When sunlight
reaches the surface of the Earth, some of it is absorbed and warms the surface of the
earth. The atmosphere absorbs the radiation from the sun. This warming effect of the
erath’s atmosphere by the sun’s radiation keeping the earth relatively warm enough to be
habitable by humans is what is called the “Greenhouse Effect”.

The greenhouse gases that cause variations in Global Warming along with the percentage
variatons they cause are the following:
-
Water vapor, which causes about 36–70%

Water vapor, also aqueous vapor, is the gas phase of water. Water vapor can be
produced from the evaporation of liquid water or from the sublimation of ice.
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Under normal atmospheric conditions, water vapor is continuously generated by
evaporation and removed by condensation.
-
Carbon dioxide, which causes 9–26%

-
Methane, which causes 4–9%

-
Methane is a chemical compound with the molecular formula CH4. It is the
simplest alkane, and the principal component of natural gas.
Ozone, which causes 3–7%

-
Carbon dioxide (chemical formula:CO2) is a chemical compound composed of
two oxygen atoms covalently bonded to a single carbon atom. It is a gas at
standard temperature and pressure and exists in Earth's atmosphere in this state.
Carbon dioxide is produced by all animals, plants, fungi and microorganisms
during respiration and is used by plants during photosynthesis. Carbon dioxide is
generated as a byproduct of the combustion of fossil fuels or vegetable matter,
among other chemical processes. Some carbon dioxide is output by volcanoes and
other geothermal processes such as hot springs.
Ozone or trioxygen (O3) is a triatomic molecule, consisting of three oxygen
atoms. It is an allotrope of oxygen that is much less stable than the diatomic O2.
Ozone in the upper atmosphere filters potentially damaging ultraviolet light from
reaching the Earth's surface. It is present in low concentrations throughout the
Earth's atmosphere.
Nitrous Oxide & CFC 0.5 – 1%

Nitrous oxide is a chemical compound with the chemical formula N2O. At room
temperature, it is a colorless non-flammable gas, with a pleasant, slightly sweet
odor and taste. It is used in surgery and dentistry for its anesthetic and analgesic
effects

CFCs : are a group of chemical compounds, consisting of alkanes, such as
methane or ethane, with one or more halogens linked, such as chlorine or fluorine,
making them a type of organic halide. They are known under many chemical and
commercial names. They are used as flame retardants, fire extinguishants,
refrigerants, propellants and solvents they have or had wide use
Though we have no direct control on the variation of wather vaopr, we do directly contribute to
the variations in Co2, O3, NO and CFC. These human contributions to these greenhouse gases is
what is increasing the effects of Global Warming on our planet.
BRUTUS - Section 3
Can you give a more detailed explanation about the connection between the variation in the
water cycle including the increase in precipitations (or rain) and Global Warming?
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Pierre-Richard – Section 3
The Earth's water is always in movement, and the water cycle, also known as the hydrologic
cycle, describes the continuous movement of water on, above, and below the surface of the
Earth. The amount of precipitation that we receive on earth is governed by the water cycle.
Water can change states among liquid, vapor, and ice at various places in the water cycle, with
these processes happening in the blink of an eye and over millions of years. Although the
balance of water on Earth remains fairly constant over time, individual water molecules can
come and go in a hurry, but there is always the same amount of water on the surface of the earth.
The water cycle has no starting or ending point. But the cycle is generally understood to follow
the folowing processes:

The sun, which drives the water cycle, heats water in the oceans.

Some of it evaporates as vapor into the air.

Ice and snow can sublimate directly into water vapor.

Rising air currents take the vapor up into the atmosphere, along with water from
evapotranspiration, which is water transpired from plants and evaporated from the soil.

The vapor rises into the air where cooler temperatures cause it to condense into clouds.

Air currents move clouds around the globe, cloud particles collide, grow, and fall out of
the sky as precipitation.

Some precipitation falls as snow and can accumulate as ice caps and glaciers, which can
store frozen water for thousands of years. Snowpacks in warmer climates often thaw and
melt when spring arrives, and the melted water flows overland as snowmelt.

Most precipitation falls back into the oceans or onto land, where, due to gravity, the
precipitation flows over the ground as surface runoff. A portion of runoff enters rivers in
valleys in the landscape, with streamflow moving water towards the oceans. Runoff, and
ground-water seepage, accumulate and are stored as freshwater in lakes. Not all runoff
flows into rivers. Much of it soaks into the ground as infiltration.

Some water infiltrates deep into the ground and replenishes aquifers (saturated subsurface
rock), which store huge amounts of freshwater for long periods of time. Some infiltration
stays close to the land surface and can seep back into surface-water bodies (and the
ocean) as ground-water discharge, and some ground water finds openings in the land
surface and emerges as freshwater springs.

Over time, the water continues flowing, some to reenter the oceans, where the waters
cycle renews itself.
Now let us talk specifically about Precipitation or rain:

In meteorology, precipitation is any product of the condensation of atmospheric water
vapor that is deposited on the earth's surface.
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o It occurs when the atmosphere becomes saturated with water vapour and the water
condenses and falls out of solution (i.e., precipitates).
o Then the Air becomes saturated by two processes: cooling and adding moisture.

Precipitation that reaches the surface of the earth can occur in many different forms,
including rain, freezing rain, drizzle, snow, ice.

Precipitation is a major component of the hydrologic cycle, and is responsible for
depositing most of the fresh water on the planet.
o Approximately 505,000 km³ of water falls as precipitation each year, 398,000 km³
of it over the oceans. Given the Earth's surface area, that means the globallyaveraged annual precipitation is about 1 m, and the average annual precipitation
over oceans is about 1.1 m.
BRUTUS –Section 4
Pierre-Richard Cornely – Section 4
What is the connection between global Warming and the generation of electrical Energy?
Americans consume nealrly ¼ of the world energy. Most of this nergy comes from burning what
are called “fossil fuels” which are coal, oil and natural gas. In fact 60% of the United Sates
energy comes from fossil fuels and power stations throughoit the US must supply this energy 24
hours/day 365 days/year.
 For example a 15 MW coal unit can produce enough nergy to satisfy the need of 1.5
million people.
 The only problem is fossil fuel based power plants (in particular coal power plants) in th
eprocess of generating energy release lots of Carbon Dioxide into the earth’s atmosphere.
 Each 1 pound of Carbon entering the earth’s atmosphere combines with Oxygen to
produce 4 pounds of CO2.
As a result:
 Using a Toaster to toast bread consumes 39 kwh of electricity/year. This translates to 20
pounds of CO2 in the atmosphere per year, which corresponds to 8 kg of CO2/year.
Using the Air conditer comsumes 4000 kwh/year. . This translates to 1800 pounds of
CO2 in the atmosphere per year, which corresponds to 800 kg of CO2/year.
 Using the shower every morning requires 550 pounds of CO2/year
 Using the computer 40 hours/weeks requires 600 pounds of CO2/year
 Using light in an average house requires 2000 pounds of CO2/year
 Using light in a large office building requires 21/2 million pounds of CO2/year
 Most of all using a small car to drive back and forth to work requires 2200 pounds of
CO2/year and if is an SUV the requirement is doubled.
 In addition, besides the electricity we require for our every day needs, we also require
large amounts of electricity for our manufacturing plants. When we add these
requirements to our energy consumption in the US, americans not surprinsingly, are
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responsible for over 1/3 of the release of the total CO2 in the atmosphere (or ¼ or the
world total).
The world needs to stabilize the amount of CO2 released in the atmosphere in order to reduce
Global Warming, but at the same time, the demand for energy consumption around the qorld is
prediced to increase by a power of 4 by the year 2020.
The only way to satisfy the two requyirements together, i.e., satisfy the world demands for
energy while stabilizing the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is to use alternative forms (Carbin
Free energy) of energy like renewable energy (solar, wind, hydro, biomass and nuclear).
BRUTUS - Section 5
What are the scientific predictions on the short and long terms effects of Global Warming on the
planet and humanity?
Pierre-Richard Cornely – Section 5

Climate model projections summarized by the IPCC indicate that average global surface
temperature will likely rise a further 1.1 to 6.4 °C (2.0 to 11.5 °F) during the twenty-first
century. This range of values results from the use of differing scenarios of future
greenhouse gas emissions as well as models predictions of greenhouse effects evolution.

Although it is difficult to connect specific weather events to global warming, an increase
in global temperatures may in turn cause broader changes in global climate, including:

Glacial retreat, causing Arctic shrinkage,

Worldwide sea level rise of 110 to 770 millimeters (0.36 to 2.5 ft) between 1990 and
2100, with repercussions to agriculture, reductions in the ozone layer, increased intensity
(but less frequent) of hurricanes and extreme weather events, and the spread of diseases
such as malaria and dengue fever.

Changes in the amount and pattern of precipitation may result in flooding and drought.

Changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events.

Other effects may include changes in agricultural yields, and species extinctions.

Finally, we may also have increasing deaths, displacements, and economic losses as well
as growing population densities in affected areas.

Additional anticipated effects include predictions on 18% to 35% of a sample of 1,103
animal and plant species that would be extinct by 2050, based on future climate
projections. However, few mechanistic studies have documented extinctions due to recent
climate change and one study suggests that projected rates of extinction are uncertain.
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