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061514 1 Global Warming – So What? Gene R. H. Fry Abstract - Since 1880, Earth’s surface has warmed the fastest in many millions of years. Oceans now gain more energy per 2 years than cumulative human energy use. Since 1993, the US warmed very fast: 1.2°F / decade. That pace turns Kansas, “breadbasket of the world,” into desert by 2100, while 2012 US heat becomes its new normal in 2020. Sulfate level variations explain temperature deviations from a smooth CO2-induced trend. Current CO2 levels entail large lag effects: ~1.7°C, on top of 1.04°C (land) since 1913: 0.5-0.6°C each from Arctic Ocean albedo changes, phasing out coal’s sulfur emissions (both complete by 2100), and warming Earth enough so outgoing radiation equals its heat gain. This CO2 level-temperature relation is supported by multiple paleoclimate studies. Carbon emissions from permafrost can increase warming more, even absent further human CO2 emissions. In 1990, Rind et al. projected that, warmed 4.2°C by CO2 double 1750 levels, Earth’s “1/century” drought frequency would rise to 45% by 2059. This results in savannas, prairies and deserts replacing forests; 70% lower biological net primary productivity; and 30-50% losses in America’s major food crops. In 2004, Dai et al. found that actual 1950-2002 severe drought frequency matched Rind’s projections. Farmers have staved off crop declines by mining groundwater, notably in north China, north India, central California and the Great Plains. Most major wheat producers (plus the Amazon, twice, among others) have suffered 1/century droughts in the past decade. Grain yields per hectare have plateaued worldwide since 2008. Several studies found that warming cut crop yields, such as 10%/°C warming. One warned of 37-82% crop losses by 2100, due to heat spikes. Doubled world food commodity prices from 2007 to 2011 led to food riots and toppled governments. The world may lose of up to half its food supply, perhaps by 2100, featuring water wars. Human population could fall steeply, threatening civilization’s collapse. But other species would fare worse. A study estimated the present value of projected warming damages exceeds gross world product, cutting GWP by 3%/year. It is vital not only to reduce CO2 emissions to zero (many methods are reviewed), but go carbon-negative in a big way. Major ways to move carbon from air to soils or elsewhere include fast-rotation grazing, organic (and no-till) farming, accelerated rock weathering, and farming the ocean. Index Terms—US warming, droughts, food supply, bio-CCS. I. INTRODUCTION This review emphasizes impacts from and solutions to rapid warming. Bottom line: we should pay ranchers and farmers to move carbon from the air back into soils. Why? We already have too much CO2 in the air. Warming (since 1880) could well triple, even without more CO2. Blame vanishing Arctic sea ice (0.5-0.6°C more warming), phasing out coal’s sulfur emissions (similar), and warming Earth enough so energy out = energy in (similar). Moreover, carbon in permafrost could increase atmospheric CO2 levels by 100 ppm or more, even without further human carbon inputs. Manuscript received June 6, 2014. Gene R. H. Fry is retired. (phone 781-698-7176; e-mail [email protected]. website www.globalwarming-sowhat.com) Water Rainfall becomes more variable. Planet-wide, we get a little more rain. Around the Arctic gets lots more, but mid-latitudes (20-40°) mostly get less than now. Yet in any one place, we get more hours and days without rain [1]. That is, we get more downpours and floods, yet also longer, drier, hotter droughts. II. THE TEMPERATURE RECORD Recent US Warming US daily high temperatures, June 1 thru September 30, rose steeply over 1978-2012, especially over 1993-2012 - for 26 cities with declining urban heat islands, scattered around the US.1 Results are very similar for 81 more US cities, not shown. Figure 1. US Mean High Temperatures, June 1 – Sept. 30 Consider Salina, Kansas, in the heart of wheat country, breadbasket of the world. Warming at 3.3°C [5.9°F] / century, by 2100 summer in Salina would be as hot as Dallas now. At 7.0°C [12.6°F] / century, by 2100 it would be as hot as summer now in Las Vegas, where no crops grow. Warming at the 107-city, 1993-2013, 6.7°C rate (faster in central states), 2012 US heat becomes its new normal in 2020. CO2 Levels: Now and Then The CO2 level in Earth's atmosphere is now 400 ppm. That is up 43% since 1750 and 36% since 1880, when NASA temperature records began. In 1915, CO2 passed the 300 ppm maximum between the last several ice ages. 400 ppm was last exceeded 15 million years ago [2]. 15-20 million years ago, Earth was 3-6°C warmer than now and seas were 25-40 meters higher [2]. CO2 levels were as high as now 3.0-3.5 million years ago [3], [4]. Earth then was 2-3°C warmer and seas were 20-35 meters higher [3], [4]. This means 1 Places are Aspen CO, Astoria OR, Bartow FL, Boston MA, Bristol TN, Butte MT, Canton OH, Duluth MN, Elmira NY, Enid OK, Ferndale MD, Hampton VA, Hanford CA, Houma LA, Jasper IN, Macon GA, Moline IL, Newark NJ, Norfolk NE, Oakland CA, Rolla MO, Roswell NM, Saginaw MI, Tupelo MS, Waco TX, and Yuma AZ. Missing data (from NOAA, via www.weathergrond.com) was interpolated from nearby weather stations, adjusted for systematic temperature differences. Implausible data (high ≤ low) are adjusted (high = 2* average – low), interpolated as missing, or omitted. 061514 ice then was gone from almost all of Greenland, most of West Antarctica, and some of East Antarctica. CO2 levels now will likely warm Earth’s land surface ~ 2.7°C, not just the 1.0°C seen to date. We face lag effects. Current CO2 levels are already too high for us. So far, half the CO2 we have emitted has stayed in the air [5]. The rest has gone into carbon sinks - into oceans, soils, trees, rocks. This natural sequestration could shrink, even reverse. Ocean Heat Gain Of the net energy absorbed by Earth from the Sun, ~84% went to heat the oceans [6]. 7% melted ice, 5% heated soil, rocks and trees, while 4% heated the air [6]. Since 2007, ocean heat gain has switched to 70% below 700 meters deep [7]. Moreover, now 90% goes to heat oceans, while less heats air, rock, and ice [7]. We notice air heating slower. Warming is sensitive to the partition of heat gain between water and air. Figure 2. Ocean Heat Gain [9] Yearly ocean heat gain from 1967 to 1990 was 40 times US yearly energy use [8], [9]. From 1991 to 2005, it was 70 times as much. Since 2005, it has been 120 times as much. Ocean heat gain since 1967 equals 3,000 years of US energy use. Sulfate Cooling Effects Figure 3. Sulfates Affect Surface Temperatures The temperature baseline is 1951-80. Short-term (1-4 year) effects of major volcanic eruptions are clear. So are 2-decade trends, most up, some down, from sulfur emissions by smokestacks (ppm numbers in rectangle near bottom [10]). The IPCC estimated sulfates offset 30-40% of warming from greenhouse gases [11], [12]. Abolishing them will warm Earth. 2 Earth Is Heating Up Earth now absorbs 0.25% more energy than it emits: a 300 (±75) million MW heat gain [13]. 300 million MW = 70 x world electric supply = 20 x human energy use. Absorption has been accelerating, from near zero in 1960. Earth will warm another 0.6°C, so far, just so it emits enough heat to balance absorption [14]. Air at the land surface is 1.04°C warmer than a century ago. Half that warming happened in the last 33 years. Air at the sea surface is 0.8°C warmer than a century ago [15]. As Fig. 2 shows, the oceans have gained ~ 10 x more heat in 40 years than cumulative human energy use. III. IMPACTS – ICE, WATER, DROUGHT Reservoirs in the Sky Most mountain glaciers are shrinking ever faster - in the Alps, Andes, Rockies, and the east and central Himalayas [16]. 30% of Himalayan glacier ice vanished since 1980 [17]. When Himalayan glaciers vanish, so could the Ganges River (and others) in the dry season. Mountain snows melt earlier, so California’s San Joaquin River (Central Valley, US “salad bowl”) could dry up by July in most years; in 2013 it again dried up much earlier [18]. The Colorado River’s recent 10-year drought was the worst since white men came [19]. Permafrost Permafrost’s release of methane (CH4) in wet areas, and CO2 in dry ones, revs up warming in a vicious circle. Thawing Arctic permafrost holds 6 x the carbon ever emitted by our fossil fuels = 2 x the carbon in Earth’s atmosphere [20]. Permafrost area shrank 7% from 1900 to 2000 [21]. It may shrink 75% more by 2100 [22]. Already, permafrost carbon emissions approximate those from US vehicles [23]. Thawing permafrost can add up to ~100 ppm of CO2 to the air by 2100, and ~300 ppm more by 2300, for up to 1.7°C more warming [24]. Seabed methane hydrates and Antarctic permafrost hold much more carbon. We may repeat the 6°C PETM warming 55 million years ago [25]. Polar Ice: Albedo and Sea Level Arctic Ocean ice is shrinking fast. Minimum ice area fell 37% in 34 years [26], while volume fell 72%, 53% in the last 10 years [27]. The ice got thinner too! The bright ice could melt away by fall in 3-7 years and be gone all summer in 7-20 [27]. The dark water absorbs far more heat than bright ice. As ice recedes, Earth absorbs more heat; it will warm more, even without more CO2: so far, like 20 extra years of CO2 [28]. Greenland’s net ice-melt rate rose 5 x in the past 15 years [29]. So, the ice cap’s simple life expectancy fell from 60 millennia to 11. Its annual net melt-water is already 1/2 of US water use [30]. Antarctica’s yearly net ice-melt (West minus East) was ~ 1/3 of Greenland’s [29], but its melt rate doubled over 2007-11 [30]. It has 9 x the ice and will last longer. Seas will likely rise 0.2 to 2 meters by 2100 [31] and 30+ meters over centuries. Seas rose 1.5 meters / century from 13,000 to 6,000 BC [32]. This provides a starting-point estimate for coming sea level rise rates. Warming is far faster now, but only 1/3 as much ice is left to melt as in 13,000 BC. Jet Stream, Drought, and Forest Fires From 1979 to 2005, the tropics spread. Sub-tropic arid belts grew ~140 miles toward the poles, a century ahead of schedule [33]. That means our jet stream moves north more often [34]. 061514 In turn, the US gets hot weather more often. 2011-12 was America’s hottest on record. Over September 2011 - August 2012, relative to local norms, 33 states were drier than the wettest state (Washington) was wet [35]. In 2012, 44 of 48 states were drier than normal [35]. Severe drought covered a record 35-46% of the US, for 39 straight weeks [35]. Drought reduced the corn crop by 1/4. Record prices followed [36]. The soybean crop was also hit hard. By 2003, forest fires burned 6 x as much area / year as before 1986 [37]-[39]. Pine bark beetles ravage western US forests [40]. Annual US forest area burned is expected to double again by 2050 [41]. Drought Frequency in Major Crop Producers When I was young, the leading wheat producers were the US Great Plains, Russia’s steppes, Canada, Australia, and Argentina’s Pampas. “1/century” droughts now happen there once a decade. Table 1. Recent Extreme Droughts When Where How Bad Record heat, 20-70,000 die. Hotter in 2003 W Europe 2012 2003Worst in millennia. 100’s die. New Australia 2010 record heat in 2013 Amazon Once / century. Worse in 2010, also 2005 Basin bad in 2013-14 in Sao Paulo state 2007 Atlanta, SE Once / century 2007 Balkans Record heat, Greek fires, 100’s die. 2007Record low rain in Los Angeles. California 2009 All CA in extreme drought 2013-14 2008-9 Argentina Worst in half century 2008Tied for worst in 200 years. Severe north China 2011 drought in Yunnan ‘09-13. 2009 India Monsoon season driest since 1972 Record heat, forest fires, 15,000 die. 2010 Russia World wheat prices up 75%. 2011 US: TX, OK record heat & drought US: SW, Most widespread in 78 years, record 2012 MW, SE heat Irrigation and Groundwater Loss Over 1994-2007, deserts grew from 18 to 27% of China’s area [42]. Since 1985, half the lakes in Qinghai province vanished [43] and 92% in Hebei province [44] around Beijing, as water tables dropped below lake beds. Many wells in China’s wheat belt must go down 300+ meters for water [45]. Yearly net US groundwater withdrawals for irrigation grew since 1950, from 13 to 25% of US water use now [46]. So, the Ogallala Aquifer dwindles. 1/5 of wheat is irrigated in the US, 3/5 in India, and 4/5 in China [47]. Central California loses enough to irrigation yearly to fill Lake Erie in 100 years [48]. Groundwater loss from India’s Ganges Basin would fill Lake Erie in 10 [49]. With more evaporation and irrigation, many water tables fall 1-6 meters / year [50]. Worldwide, irrigation wells chase water ever deeper. Water prices rise. Inland seas and lakes dry up and vanish, for example: the Aral Sea, Lake Chad, Lake Eyre, and the Sea of Galilee. More rivers fail to reach the sea more often: Yellow, Colorado, Indus, Murray-Darling, Rio Grande, etc. IV. IMPACTS: FOOD Droughts Set the Stage As Figure 4 shows, NASA’s model projected in 1990 that 3 with “Business as Usual” emissions, CO2 doubles (550 ppm) 1750 levels by 2059, causing 4.2°C warming and 14% more rain [51]. It projected droughts increase in severity and extent, so that “1/century” droughts cover 45% of Earth [51]. Extreme Drought Can Clobber Earth By 2059, a Century” Can 45% of Earth. Figure 4. “Once Projected Drought Drought Conditions in Cover 2059 [51] Supply-Demand Drought Index 1969 1999 . Busine as Usu Emissi in 2059 2 x CO2 2029 2059 +4.2°C +14% ra Climate Mod NASA Goddard Institute fo Space Studi (GISS) DRY WET 0 1 5 16 36 36 16 5 1 0 Run Figure %5 Occurrence shows thein Control same projections % in control run Fig. 1 in David Rind, R. Goldberg, James Hansen, Cynthia Rosenzweig, R. Ruedy, “Potential Evapotranspiration and the Likelihood of Future Droughts,” Journal of Geophysica Research, Vol. 95, No. D7, 6/20/1990, 9983-10004. as a time series. Over 2000-04, the average frequencies are 18% for “drought” and 33% for “dry”. A weighted average for “as dry as 11% of the time” drought is ~ 27%. Figure 5. Projected Drought Conditions by Year [51] In Figure 6, compare 30% actual severe drought area in 2002 (11% of the time during 1951-80) to 27% projected in 1990 (Figure 5) for 2000-2004. Droughts spread, as projected or faster. Earth’s area in severe drought has tripled since 1979. Evaporation worked its magic. Over 23 years, the area with severe drought grew by the size of North America. From 1979 to 2002, comparably wet soil areas shrank from 11% to 8% of Earth’s land area – by the size of India. Figure 6. Historical Worldwide Drought Frequency [52] 061514 4 Over 1992-2003, warming above the norm cut corn, rice, and soybean yields by ~10%/°C [59]. Over 1982-98, warming in 618+ US counties cut corn and soybean yields ~17%/°C [60]. With more CO2, 2°C warming cut yields 8-38% for irrigated wheat in India [61]. Warmer nights since 1979 cut rice yield growth 10%± in 6 Asian nations [62]. Warming since 1980 cut wheat yield growth 5.5%, corn 3.8% [63]. In Table 2 below, grains include wheat, corn, rice, barley, oats, rye, and sorghum. Million tonnes in 2011 are from FAO, yields from data.worldbank.org/indicator/AG.YLD.CREL.KG. Table 2. World Cereal Grain Yields US Climate Future This Century – UCS Study In 2005-6, scientists calculated how climate would change for 9 Northeast [53] and 6 Great Lakes [54] states in 2 cases: (1) a transition away from fossil fuels, or (2) continued heavy reliance on them (business as usual emissions). In 2085, averaged across 15 states, climate change would be like moving 530 km SSW (if coal and oil use shrink) or moving 1050 km SSW (if heavy use continues) [53], [54]. Consider central Kansas, heart of wheat country. 530 km SSW sits the area from Amarillo to Oklahoma City. 1050 km SSW is around Alpine and Del Rio, Texas, with <1 person / sq km. Cactus, mesquite and sagebrush grow there, but no wheat. Droughts - Why Worry? In 2059, with 2 x CO2 (Business as Usual emissions), Earth has more moisture in the air, but 15-27% less in the soil [51]. Average US stream flows decline 30%, despite 14% more rain [51]. Tree biomass in the eastern US falls by up to 40% [51]. More dry climate vegetation replaces forests: savannas, prairies, and deserts [51]. The vegetation changes mean biological net primary productivity falls 30-70% [51]. Switching from projections to actuals, satellites show that browning of the Earth began in 1994 [55]. Crop Yields Fall NASA made 2059 projections for the United States, with doubled CO2 (Business as Usual emissions) in the Great Lakes, Southeast, and southern Great Plains regions - for corn, wheat, and soybeans. NASA’s GISS model projected (4.2°C warmer, 14% more rain) that crop yields would fall 30%, averaged across regions and crops [51]. NOAA’s GFDL model projected (4.5°C warmer, 5% less rain) they would fall 50%, averaged across regions and crops [51]. CO2 fertilization was not included [51]. So things will not be this bad, especially this soon. Temperature effects of doubled CO2 will keep growing, eventually to 4.2° or 4.5°C, but over many decades. CO2 fertilization (2 x CO2) boosts yields 4-34% in experiments [56], [57] where water and other nutrients are well supplied, and weeds and pests are controlled. That will not happen as well in many fields. Groundwater and snowmelt for irrigation grow scarcer in many areas. Other factors (most often nitrogen) soon kick in to limit growth, so CO2 fertilization will falter some. Crop Data Analyses As Table 2 shows, worldwide yields for cereal grains have leveled off. This is consistent with rising food prices, and with forecasts of falling crop yields. However, global population is expected to grow, leading to much less food per person. For wheat, corn, and rice, photosynthesis in leaves slows above 35°C (95°F) and stops above 40°C (104°F) [58]. Warming (above 35° or 40°C) hurts warm, tropical areas harder and sooner [58]. Heat Spikes Devastate Crop Yields Average yields for corn and soybeans could plummet 3746% by 2100 with the slowest warming and 75-82% with quicker warming [64]. Why? Corn and soybean yields rise with warming up to 29-30°C, but fall more steeply with higher temperatures [64]. Heat spikes on individual days have big impacts [64]. More rain can lessen losses, since plants transpire more water to cool off. Growing other crops, or growing crops farther north, can help too. Figure 7. Possible Changes in World Crop Yields, +3°C [65] 061514 Figure 7 shows a possible future crop yield scenario. It is more pessimistic than the average among many studies. Like most projections, it does not include CO2 fertilization. World Food Prices Due in part to heat and drought stresses on crops, and with yields per hectare flat, the world food price index rose [65]. Climate change probably played a role in that food situation. Figure 8. World Food Price Index [66] With food stocks at low levels, when food prices rose steeply in 2007-08 and again in 2010 (Figure 8), poor people could not afford to buy enough food. Malnutrition and starvation rose. Food riots toppled governments in 2011. V. IMPACTS: SUMMARY AND COSTS Projected Warming Effects by Degree [67]2 2°C Warming - 450 ppm CO2e 3 • Hurricane costs double. Many more major floods • Major heat waves are common. Forest fires worsen. • Droughts intensify. Deserts spread. • Civil wars and border wars over water increase. [68] • Crop yields rise nowhere, fall in the tropics. • Greenland icecap collapse becomes irreversible. • The ocean begins its invasion of Bangladesh. 3°C Warming - 550 ppm CO2e 4 • Hurricanes and droughts get much worse. • Hydropower and irrigation decline. Water is scarce. • Crop yields fall substantially in many areas. • More water wars and failed states. Terrorists multiply. [68] • 2/3 of Amazon rainforest may turn to savanna, desert scrub. [69]-[72]. (Since 1979, the Amazon dry season has lengthened by a week per decade [73].) • Tropical diseases (malaria, etc.) spread farther and faster. 4°C Warming - 650 ppm CO2e • Water shortages afflict almost all people. • Crop yields fall in ALL regions, by 1/3 in many. • Entire regions (e.g., Australia) cease agriculture altogether. • Water wars, refugee crises, terrorism become intense. [68] • Methane release from permafrost accelerates. 2 3 4 selected effects from the Stern Review [67], except as noted. includes CH4, SO4, etc. 2°C effects are unavoidable. Current CO2e level is ~ 540 ppm. 5 • The Gulf Stream may stop, monsoons often fail. • West Antarctic ice sheet collapse speeds up. 5°C Warming - 750 ppm CO2e (my extrapolations) . • Deserts grow by 2 x the size of the US. • World food falls by 1/3 to 1/2. • Human population falls a lot, to match a reduced food supply. • Other species fare worse. $ Costs Costs (inflation-adjusted $, Business as Usual) of inaction are now $695 billion / year [74] (> 1% of GWP), including $119 billion ($380 / American) in the US for 2012 [75] (almost 1% of US GNP). Already 0.5 million people a year die from climate change worldwide, plus 4.5 million from sulfates [74]. Costs grow over time. The present value of future costs (2005-2200, at 2%/year) with “business as usual” emissions was estimated in 2005 at €74 trillion [76] (~$100 trillion). This exceeds GWP. Annualized damages are $2 trillion / year (3% of GWP). This is like a hidden tax of $50,000 / American. The damages translate to $85 / Ton of CO2 [67]. In contrast, the costs of action are $9-75/year per American [77], [78]. This means spending 1% ±2% of GWP ($150 billion by US), each year [67]. (Negative 1% is energy efficiency.) In this case, damages fall to $25 - $30 / ton of CO2 [67] and world savings are about $2.5 trillion, net, from each year’s spending [67], [79], a 5:1 benefit to cost ratio. VI. SOLUTIONS Remove Carbon from the Air. • Rebuild rangelands. Perennial grass roots add carbon to soil [80]. Speed up the process 10-50 x with short rotation cattle grazing, like buffalo [81], across vast rangelands. Dung beetles also move carbon underground, so lots more rain soaks in [80]. This grazing practice can absorb 2.5 T of carbon (9 of CO2) / hectare / year [80], cutting atmospheric CO2 by 6 ppm / year (3.5 net) [80], and 80 ppm over only a few decades [81]. • Farming can put 4.3 GT of atmospheric CO2 / year into soils (0.7 in US), for $20-100 / Ton [82], [83]. Organic farms add more than 3 T of carbon (11 of CO2) / hectare / year to soil, using no-till methods, composting, natural fertilizer, etc. [82][84]. This rebuilds soil organic matter, from 1-3% now, to 610% before farming. Increase humus (soil carbon+), with mycorrhizal fungi, glomalin, and humate [82]. • Rocks have weathered for eons, taking 1 GT CO2 / year from the air [85]. Move CO2 into crushed rock (basalt, etc.) Spread around millions of 2-story towers with crushed rock [86], to speed up natural process 10 x. • Add iron filings to select ocean areas [87]. Algae bloom and suck CO2 from the air. Algae must suck 8 x as much carbon from the air as our food supply does, just to break even. Oceans may be too small, even if fertilization works well. Dead algae may not sink. Tiny creatures eat them; soon carbon returns to air. Additional fertilizers (K, P, N, etc.) may be needed. Other problems will arise. • Bury biochar shallow in soils. • Use carbon capture and storage in biomass-fired power plants [88]. • Planting more trees is a good idea, but deforestation continues for fuel, lumber, paper, palm oil, soybeans, ranches. 061514 Trees need water, but soils will have less. Forest fires run wild. • Maintain forest soils: humus, roots, fungi, bacteria, leaf litter. That is tough to do; drought and fires hurt. Below-ground carbon is less than above-ground carbon in tropical rainforests, but that relationship is strongly reversed in mid-latitude forests [89], and especially in circum-polar ecosystems. (Permafrost holds about 3 x as much carbon / ha as tropical rainforest.5) • Add silicates during hydrolysis at sea surface [90]. Scrub CO2 from the air. Put Less Carbon in the Air Electricity Price it right retail, for everyone: low at night, high by day, highest on hot afternoons. Price demand and energy separately. • Coal - Use less. Scrub out the CO2 with oxyfuel or pre-/ post-combustion process [91]. • Natural gas and oil follow daily loads up and down, but oil is costly. To follow loads, store energy in car batteries, water uphill, flow batteries, compressed air, flywheels, molten salt, hydrogen. Keep leaks from fracking to very low levels. • Wind - Resource is many x total use: US Plains, coasts: N. Carolina to Maine, Great Lakes, Gulf of Mexico. Growing 16-35%/year [92], it is often cheaper (4-8 ¢/kWh) than coal [93], [94]. Wind is 5.6% of US GW [95]. Wind turbines off the East Coast could replace all or most US coal plants [96]. • Solar - Resource dwarfs total use. Output peaks near when cooling needs peak. Growing 30+%/year [92], solar PV costs 4-12 ¢/kWh [97], [94], thermal (with flat mirrors) 10¢ [98]. • Nuclear - new plants in China, India, Korea, US Southeast • Water, Wood, Waste - Rivers will dwindle. More forest fires limit growth. • Geothermal - big potential in US West, Ring of Fire, Italy • Ocean - tides, waves, currents, thermal difference (surface vs deep: “OTEC”) • Renewable energy can easily provide 80-90% of US electricity by 2050 [99]. Efficient Buildings + At Home Use ground source heat pumps. Use better lights compact fluorescents (CFLs) and LEDs. Turn off un-used lights. Use Energy Star appliances – air conditioners, refrigerators, front load clothes washers. Insulate - high Rvalue in ceilings and walls, honeycomb window shades, caulking. Use low flow showerheads, microwave ovens, trees, awnings, clotheslines, solar roofs. Commercial Use micro-cogeneration and ground source heat pumps. Don’t over-light. Use day-lighting, reflectors, occupancy sensors. Use LCD Energy Star computers. Ventilate more with variable speed drives. Use free cooling (open intakes to night air), green roofs, solar roofs. Make ice at night, then melt it during the day - for cold water to cool buildings [100]. Industrial Energy $ impact the bottom line. Efficiency is generally good already. Facility energy managers do their jobs. Case-specific process changes become economic as energy 5 Rainforests in the Amazon, Congo, and Borneo [Mongobay, PLOS 1, etc.] store 300 tons of carbon/ha, on average. Permafrost stores 1.9 trillion tons [20] of carbon, spread across its 23.7 million sq km, that is 800 tons of carbon/ha. 6 prices rise. Use more cogeneration. Personal Vehicles US cars get 24 mi/gal (10 km/l), pickups, vans and SUVs get 17 (7), averaging 20 (8.5) [101]. GM and Chrysler went bankrupt. Toyota started outselling Ford in the US and GM around the world. Hybrid sales are soaring, up to 56 mi/gal (24 km/l). New cars average 37-44 mi/gal (16-19) in Europe and 45 (19) in Japan [102]. To cut US vehicle CO2 by 50% in 20 years is not hard. GM already did it in Europe. How? Lighten up, downsize, don’t over-power engines. Use 5-speeds and continuously variable transmissions, hybrid-electric, diesel. Ditch SUVs. Use pickup trucks and vans only for work that requires them. Store wind on the road, with plug-in hybrids. Charge them up at night. Other Transportation Fuels - Cut CO2 emissions further with low-carbon fuels? Save ethanol and biodiesel for boats and long-haul trucks and buses. Get ethanol from sugar cane (energy out / in ratio = 8:1 [103]). But corn ethanol’s ratio is only 0.8 or 1.3 or 1.7:1 [104], [105]. We feed food to cars. Grain for ethanol to fill one SUV tank could feed a man for a year [106]. Use cellulose? Estimated energy out / in ratios also vary dramatically for both palm oil and prairie grasses. For biofuels, more CO2 from land use changes dwarf CO2 savings [107], [108]. Trains, Airplanes, and Ships - Use high-speed magnetic levitated railroads (RRs) for passengers. Shift medium-haul (150 - 800 miles) passengers from airplanes to maglev RRs (faster than TGV, bullet trains). Shift long distance freight from trucks to electric RRs. Big cargo ships use 2 MW wind turbines, hydrogen, nuclear reactors. Personal Make your home and office efficient; don’t over-size a house. Drive an efficient car; don’t super size a vehicle. Combine errands, idle 10 seconds at most. Walk. (Be healthy!) Carpool, use bus, RR, subway. Bicycle. Buy things that last. Fix them when they break. Eat less feedlot beef; less is healthier! (1 calorie = 7-10 of grain.) Reduce, re-use, recycle. Minimize packaging and use cloth bags. Garden; move carbon from the air into the soil. Ask Congress to price carbon. Cut CO2 emissions 80+% by 2050. Tax carbon 3¢/pound, rising 5% per year. Rebate the tax revenue in equal amounts to each American. Include tax credits to move CO2 from the air into soils, etc. REFERENCES [1] W. K.-M. Lau, H.-T. Wu and K.-M. 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