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A Proposed New Metric For Quantifying The Climatic Effects Of Human-Caused Alterations To The Global and Regional Water Cycles Roger A. Pielke Sr., Senior Research Scientist University of Colorado, Boulder Professor Emeritus, Colorado State University CU Hydrology And Water Resources Seminar, Boulder, CO, April 23, 2008 • The most appropriate metric to assess ‘global warming or cooling’ are the changes in heat unit (Joules) stores in accessible components of the earth’s environmental system. • Humans can produce a net change in the storage and/or a redistribution of where the heat energy is stored. • Heat units of Joules can be expressed in terms 23 Joules per decade of a heating rate (1.6 X 1023 corresponds to an average earth system -2). heating rate of 1.0 Watts m-2 From: From: National National Research Research Council, Council, 2005: 2005: Radiative Radiative Forcing Forcing of of Climate Climate Change: Change: Expanding Expanding the the Concept Concept and and Addressing Addressing Uncertainties, Uncertainties, Committee Committee on on Radiative Radiative Forcing Forcing Effects Effects on on Climate, Climate, Climate Climate Research Research Committee, Committee, 224 224 pp. pp. http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11175.html http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11175.html Change In Regional Water Cycle U.S. U.S. Geological Geological Survey Survey land-cover land-cover classes classes for for pre-1900’s pre-1900’s natural natural conditions conditions (left) (left) and and 1993 1993 land-use land-use patterns patterns (right). (right). From From Marshall, Marshall, C.H. C.H. Jr., Jr., R.A. R.A. Pielke Pielke Sr., Sr., L.T. L.T. Steyaert, Steyaert, and and D.A. D.A. Willard, Willard, 2004: 2004: The The impact impact of of anthropogenic anthropogenic land-cover land-cover change change on on the the Florida Florida peninsula peninsula sea sea breezes breezes and and warm warm season season sensible sensible weather. weather. Mon. Mon. Wea. Wea. Rev., Rev., 132, 132, 28-52. 28-52. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-272.pdf http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-272.pdf From From Marshall, Marshall, C.H. C.H. Jr., Jr., R.A. R.A. Pielke Pielke Sr., Sr., L.T. L.T. Steyaert, Steyaert, and and D.A. D.A. Willard, Willard, 2004: 2004: The The impact impact of of anthropogenic anthropogenic land-cover land-cover change change on on the the Florida Florida peninsula peninsula sea sea breezes breezes and and warm warm season season sensible sensible weather. weather. Mon. Mon. Wea. Wea. Rev., Rev., 132, 132, 28 28 52. 52. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-272.pdf http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-272.pdf From Marshall, C.H. Jr., R.A. Pielke Sr., L.T. Steyaert, and D.A. Willard, 2004: The impact of anthropogenic land-cover change on the Florida peninsula sea breezes and warm season sensible weather. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 28-52. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/ pdf/R-272.pdf Associated convective rainfall (mm) from the model simulations of July-August 1973 with pre-1900s land cover (top), 1993 land use (middle), and the difference field for the two (bottom; 1993 minus pre-1900s case). From Marshall, C.H. Jr., R.A. Pielke Sr., L.T. Steyaert, and D.A. Willard, 2004: The impact of anthropogenic land-cover change on the Florida peninsula sea breezes and warm season sensible weather. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 28-52. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications /pdf/R-272.pdf Same as previous figure except for July and August, 1989. From Marshall, C.H. Jr., R.A. Pielke Sr., L.T. Steyaert, and D.A. Willard, 2004: The impact of anthropogenic land-cover change on the Florida peninsula sea breezes and warm season sensible weather. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 28-52. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications /pdf/R-272.pdf Two-month average of the daily maximum shelter-level temperature (°C) from the model simulations of Jul-Aug 1989 with (top) natural land cover, (middle) current land cover. From Marshall, C.H. Jr., R.A. Pielke Sr., L.T. Steyaert, and D.A. Willard, 2004: The impact of anthropogenic landcover change on the Florida peninsula sea breezes and warm season sensible weather. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 28-52. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/ pdf/R-272.pdf Same as previous figure except for daily minimum temperature. From Marshall, C.H. Jr., R.A. Pielke Sr., L.T. Steyaert, and D.A. Willard, 2004: The impact of anthropogenic land-cover change on the Florida peninsula sea breezes and warm season sensible weather. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 28-52. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/ R-272.pdf Gradient of Radiative Forcing The Normalized Gradient of Radiative Forcing (NGoRF) is the fraction of the present Earth’s heterogeneous insolation attributed to human activity on different horizontal scales GoRFanthro NGoRF = GoRFtotal GoRFtotal ∂ R total = ∂λ G oRFanthro ∂ R anthro = ∂λ From: From: Matsui, Matsui, T., T., and and R.A. R.A. Pielke Pielke Sr., Sr., 2006: 2006: Measurement-based Measurement-based estimation estimation of of the the spatial spatial gradient gradient of of aerosol radiative forcing. Geophys. Res. Letts., 33, L11813, doi:10.1029/2006GL025974. aerosol radiative forcing. Geophys. Res. Letts., 33, L11813, doi:10.1029/2006GL025974. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-312.pdf http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-312.pdf Figure Figure 1. 1. Shortwave Shortwave aerosol aerosol direct direct radiative radiative forcing forcing (ADRF) (ADRF) for for top-of top-of atmosphere atmosphere (TOA), surface, and atmosphere. From: Matsui, T., and R.A. Pielke Sr., (TOA), surface, and atmosphere. From: Matsui, T., and R.A. Pielke Sr., 2006: 2006: Measurement-based estimation of the spatial gradient of aerosol radiative Measurement-based estimation of the spatial gradient of aerosol radiative forcing. forcing. Geophys. Geophys. Res. Res. Letts., Letts., 33, 33, L11813, L11813, doi:10.1029/2006GL025974. doi:10.1029/2006GL025974. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-312.pdf http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-312.pdf Figure Figure 2. 2. Vertical Vertical profile profile of of atmospheric atmospheric heating heating rate rate (K (K day day-1-1)) due due to to shortwave shortwave ADRF. ADRF. Vertical Vertical coordinate coordinate is is pressure pressure level level (mb). (mb). From: From: Matsui, Matsui, T., T., and and R.A. R.A. Pielke Pielke Sr., Sr., 2006: 2006: Measurement-based Measurement-based estimation estimation of of the the spatial spatial gradient gradient of of aerosol aerosol radiative radiative forcing. forcing. Geophys. Geophys. Res. Res. Letts., Letts., 33, 33, L11813, L11813, doi:10.1029/2006GL025974. doi:10.1029/2006GL025974. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-312.pdf http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-312.pdf Figure Figure 3. 3. Shortwave Shortwave aerosol aerosol indirect indirect radiative radiative forcing forcing (AIRF) (AIRF) for for top-of top-of atmosphere atmosphere (TOA), (TOA), surface, surface, and and atmosphere. atmosphere. From: From: Matsui, Matsui, T., T., and and R.A. R.A. Pielke Pielke Sr., Sr., 2006: 2006: Measurement-based Measurement-based estimation estimation of of the the spatial spatial gradient gradient of of aerosol aerosol radiative radiative forcing. forcing. Geophys. Geophys. Res. Res. Letts., Letts., 33, 33, L11813, L11813, doi:10.1029/2006GL025974. doi:10.1029/2006GL025974. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-312.pdf http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-312.pdf raditive forcing (W/m2) Figure Figure 4. 4. Comparison Comparison of of Mean Mean TOA TOA radiative radiative forcing forcing between between infrared infrared GRF, GRF, shortwave shortwave ADRF, ADRF, and and shortwave shortwave AIRF. AIRF. From: From: Matsui, Matsui, T., T., and and R.A. R.A. Pielke Pielke Sr., Sr., 2006: 2006: Measurement-based Measurement-based estimation estimation of of the the spatial spatial gradient gradient of of aerosol aerosol radiative radiative forcing. forcing. Geophys. Geophys. Res. Res. Letts., Letts., 33, 33, L11813, L11813, doi:10.1029/2006GL025974. doi:10.1029/2006GL025974. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-312.pdf http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-312.pdf mean TOA radiative forcing 2 1 1.7 -1.59 -1.38 GRF ADRF AIRF 0 -1 -2 surface 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 0 5 ADRF(zone) ADRF(meri) NGoRF NGoRF Figure Figure 5. 5. Comparison Comparison of of the the meridional meridional and and the the zonal zonal component component of of NGoRF NGoRF between between infrared infrared GRF, GRF, shortwave shortwave ADRF, ADRF, and and shortwave shortwave AIRF AIRF for for atmosphere atmosphere and and surface. surface. From: From: Matsui, Matsui, T., T., and and R.A. R.A. Pielke Pielke Sr., Sr., 2006: 2006: Measurement-based Measurement-based estimation estimation of of the the spatial spatial gradient gradient of of aerosol aerosol radiative radiative forcing. forcing. Geophys. Geophys. Res. Res. Letts., Letts., 33, 33, L11813, L11813, doi:10.1029/2006GL025974. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-312.pdf doi:10.1029/2006GL025974. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-312.pdf 10 15 distance (degree) AIRF(zone) AIRF(meri) 20 GRF(zone) GRF(meri) atmosphere 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 0 5 10 15 20 The Actual Global Heat Change in the Last 50 Years is Relatively Small Estimate Estimate of of actual actual climate climate system system heat heat change change from from the the early early 1950s-1995 1950s-1995 is is 0.3 0.3 Watts Watts per per meter meter squared squared (Pielke (Pielke 2003) 2003) based based on on ocean ocean heat heat storage storage changes changes (Levitus (Levitus et et al. al. 2000). 2000). Figure Figure from from Houghton Houghton et et al. al. Eds., Eds., 2001: 2001: Summary Summary for for Policymakers: Policymakers: http://www.ipcc.ch http://www.ipcc.ch 2007 IPCC SPM View FIGURE SPM-2. Global-average radiative forcing (RF) estimates and ranges in 2005 for anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and other important agents and mechanisms, together with the typical geographical extent (spatial scale) of the forcing and the assessed level of scientific understanding (LOSU). The net anthropogenic radiative forcing and its range are also shown. These require summing asymmetric uncertainty estimates from the component terms, and cannot be obtained by simple addition. Additional forcing factors not included here are considered to have a very low LOSU. Volcanic aerosols contribute an additional natural forcing but are not included in this figure due to their episodic nature. Range for linear contrails does not include other possible effects of aviation on cloudiness. Effect of the Spatial Redistribution of Surface Heating (El Niño) •• El El Niño Niño has has aa major major effect effect on on weather weather thousands thousands of of kilometers kilometers from from the the tropical tropical Pacific Pacific Ocean Ocean (Shabbar (Shabbar et et al. al. 1997). 1997). •• The The presence presence of of warm warm SSTs SSTs permit permit thunderstorms thunderstorms to to occur occur which which otherwise otherwise would would not not have have occurred. occurred. •• These These thunderstorms thunderstorms export export vast vast amounts amounts of of heat, heat, moisture, moisture, and and kinetic kinetic energy energy to to the the middle middle and and higher higher latitudes, latitudes, which which alter alter the the ridge ridge and and trough trough patterns patterns associated associated with with the the polar polar jet jet stream stream (Hou (Hou 1998). 1998). •• El El Niños Niños have have such such aa major major effect effect on on weather weather due due to to their their large large magnitude, magnitude, long long persistence, persistence, and and spatial spatial coherence coherence (Wu (Wu and and Newell Newell 1998). 1998). •• Tropical Tropical thunderstorms thunderstorms are are referred referred to to as as “hot “hot towers” towers” and and are are the the conduit conduit to to higher higher latitudes latitudes as as part part of of the the Hadley Hadley circulations circulations (Riehl (Riehl and and Malkus Malkus 1958; 1958; Riehl Riehl and and Simpson Simpson 1979). 1979). •• Most Most thunderstorms thunderstorms occur occur over over tropical tropical and and midlatitude midlatitude land land masses masses and and in in the the warm warm season season (Lyons (Lyons 1999; 1999; Rosenfeld Rosenfeld 2000). 2000). Therefore, Therefore, the the Earth’s Earth’s climate climate system system must must also also be be sensitive sensitive to to land-use land-use change change in in those those regions regions where where thunderstorms thunderstorms occur. occur. El Niño Teleconnection Effect El Niño-Natural Prepared by T.N. Chase, CU, Boulder, CO. El Niño-Control Prepared by T.N. Chase, CU, Boulder, CO El Niño-Control Prepared by T.N. Chase, CU, Boulder, CO Global-Averaged Absolute Value Difference of Sensible and Latent Heat Fluxes Averaged for 12 Januaries: El Niño Teleconnection Average Latent January 6.1 Watts m-2 Heat Flux Average Sensible January 2.4 Watts m-2 Heat Flux Effect of the Spatial Redistribution of Surface Heating (Land-Use Change) From: From: Pielke Pielke Sr., Sr., R.A., R.A., G. G. Marland, Marland, R.A. R.A. Betts, Betts, T.N. T.N. Chase, Chase, J.L. J.L. Eastman, Eastman, J.O. J.O. Niles, Niles, D. D. Niyogi, Niyogi, and and S. S. Running, 2002: The influence of land-use change and landscape dynamics on the climate system: Running, 2002: The influence of land-use change and landscape dynamics on the climate system: Relevance Relevance to to climate climate change change policy policy beyond beyond the the radiative radiative effect effect of of greenhouse greenhouse gases. gases. Phil. Phil. Trans. Trans. A. A. Special Special Theme Theme Issue, Issue, 360, 360, 1705-1719. 1705-1719. From: From: Pielke Pielke Sr., Sr., R.A., R.A., G. G. Marland, Marland, R.A. R.A. Betts, Betts, T.N. T.N. Chase, Chase, J.L. J.L. Eastman, Eastman, J.O. J.O. Niles, Niles, D. D. Niyogi, Niyogi, and and S. S. Running, Running, 2002: 2002: The The influence influence of of land-use land-use change change and and landscape landscape dynamics dynamics on on the the climate climate system: system: Relevance Relevance to to climate climate change change policy policy beyond the radiative effect of greenhouse gases. Phil. Trans. A. Special Theme Issue, 360, 1705-1719. beyond the radiative effect of greenhouse gases. Phil. Trans. A. Special Theme Issue, 360, 1705-1719. From: From: Pielke Pielke Sr., Sr., R.A., R.A., G. G. Marland, Marland, R.A. R.A. Betts, Betts, T.N. T.N. Chase, Chase, J.L. J.L. Eastman, Eastman, J.O. J.O. Niles, Niles, D. D. Niyogi, Niyogi, and and S. S. Running, Running, 2002: 2002: The The influence influence of of land-use land-use change change and and landscape landscape dynamics dynamics on on the the climate climate system: system: Relevance Relevance to to climate climate change change policy policy beyond the radiative effect of greenhouse gases. Phil. Trans. A. Special Theme Issue, 360, 1705-1719. beyond the radiative effect of greenhouse gases. Phil. Trans. A. Special Theme Issue, 360, 1705-1719. From: From: Pielke Pielke Sr., Sr., R.A., R.A., G. G. Marland, Marland, R.A. R.A. Betts, Betts, T.N. T.N. Chase, Chase, J.L. J.L. Eastman, Eastman, J.O. J.O. Niles, Niles, D. D. Niyogi, Niyogi, and and S. S. Running, Running, 2002: 2002: The influence of land-use change and landscape dynamics on the climate system: Relevance to climate change The influence of land-use change and landscape dynamics on the climate system: Relevance to climate change policy policy beyond beyond the the radiative radiative effect effect of of greenhouse greenhouse gases. gases. Phil. Phil. Trans. Trans. A. A. Special Special Theme Theme Issue, Issue, 360, 360, 1705-1719. 1705-1719. From: From: Pielke Pielke Sr., Sr., R.A., R.A., G. G. Marland, Marland, R.A. R.A. Betts, Betts, T.N. T.N. Chase, Chase, J.L. J.L. Eastman, Eastman, J.O. J.O. Niles, Niles, D. D. Niyogi, Niyogi, and and S. S. Running, Running, 2002: 2002: The The influence influence of of land-use land-use change change and and landscape landscape dynamics dynamics on on the the climate climate system: system: Relevance Relevance to to climate climate change change policy policy beyond the radiative effect of greenhouse gases. Phil. Trans. A. Special Theme Issue, 360, 1705-1719. beyond the radiative effect of greenhouse gases. Phil. Trans. A. Special Theme Issue, 360, 1705-1719. Redistribution of Heat Due to the Human Disturbance of the Earth’s Climate System Globally-Average Absolute Value of Sensible Heat Plus Latent Heat Only Where Land Use Occurred Teleconnections July 1.08 Watts m-2 January 0.7 Watts m-2 July 8.90 Watts m-2 Included January 9.47 Watts m-2 Global redistribution of heat is on the same order as an El Niño Spatial Redistribution of Heat is also Associated with a Spatial Redistribution of Water RN = QG + H + L(E+T) P = E + T + RO + I New Metric: Changes in δP; δT; δRO; δI From From Pielke Pielke Sr., Sr., R.A., R.A., 2001: 2001: Influence Influence of of the the spatial spatial distribution distribution of of vegetation vegetation and and soils soils on on the the prediction prediction of of cumulus cumulus convective convective rainfall. rainfall. Rev. Rev. Geophys., Geophys., 39,151-177. 39,151-177. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-231.pdf http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-231.pdf Alteration in Surface Water Fluxes Associated With Land-Use Change Adapted Adapted from from P. P. Kabat Kabat (personal (personal communication, communication, 1999). 1999). From From Pielke Pielke Sr., Sr., R.A., R.A., 2001: 2001: Influence Influence of of the the spatial spatial distribution distribution of of vegetation vegetation and and soils soils on on the the prediction prediction of of cumulus cumulus convective convective rainfall. rainfall. Rev. Rev. Geophys., Geophys., 39,151-177. 39,151-177. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-231.pdf http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-231.pdf Alteration of Thermodynamic Profile Associated with Land-Use Change From Pielke Sr., R.A., 2001: Influence of the spatial distribution of vegetation and soils on the prediction of cumulus convective rainfall. Rev. Geophys., 39,151-177. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-231.pdf Effect of Land-Use Change on Deep Cumulonimbus Convection From Pielke Sr., R.A., 2001: Influence of the spatial distribution of vegetation and soils on the prediction of cumulus convective rainfall. Rev. Geophys., 39,151-177. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-231.pdf Mean July Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) (J kg-1) from 12 Z Radiosonde Observations From U. Nair and R. Welch (personal communication, 2000). Pielke Sr., R.A., 2001: Influence of the spatial distribution of vegetation and soils on the prediction of cumulus convective rainfall. Rev. Geophys., 39,151-177. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-231.pdf Changes in Mean July CAPE Due to a 1°C Increase in Surface Layer Dewpoint Temperature Alterations in surface moisture fluxes alter CAPE From U. Nair and R. Welch (personal communication, 2000). Pielke Sr., R.A., 2001: Influence of the spatial distribution of vegetation and soils on the prediction of cumulus convective rainfall. Rev. Geophys., 39,151-177. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-231.pdf Smaller-Scale Spatial Variations in Landscape Change Also Affect the Water Cycle From From Avissar Avissar and and Liu Liu (1996). (1996). Pielke Pielke Sr., Sr., R.A., R.A., 2001: 2001: Influence Influence of of the the spatial spatial distribution distribution of of vegetation vegetation and soils on the prediction of cumulus convective rainfall. Rev. Geophys., 39,151-177. and soils on the prediction of cumulus convective rainfall. Rev. Geophys., 39,151-177. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-231.pdf http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-231.pdf From Avissar and Liu (1996). Pielke Sr., R.A., 2001: Influence of the spatial distribution of vegetation and soils on the prediction of cumulus convective rainfall. Rev. Geophys., 39,151-177. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-231.pdf Global Water Cycle Metric Absolute Value of Globally-Averaged Change is 1.2 mm/day. Prepared by T.N. Chase, CU, Boulder, CO. Global Water Cycle Metric Absolute Absolute Value Value of of Globally-Averaged Globally-Averaged Change Change is is 0.6 0.6 mm/day mm/day Prepared by T.N. Chase, CU, Boulder, CO. SUMMARY •• Landscape Landscape change change and and vegetation vegetation dynamics dynamics both both result result in in aa significant significant global global redistribution redistribution of of heat heat and and water water within within the the global global climate climate system. system. •• This This redistribution redistribution of of heat heat and and water water has has already already had had an an effect effect on on the the global global climate climate system system this this is is at at least least as as large large as as the the IPCC IPCC and and National National Assessment Assessment have have attributed attributed to to the the radiative radiative effect effect of of aa doubling doubling of of carbon carbon dioxide. dioxide. A A Focus Focus on on Vulnerability Vulnerability Schematic Schematic of of the the relation relation of of water water resource resource vulnerability vulnerability to to the the spectrum spectrum of of the the environmental forcings and feedbacks (adapted from [3]). The arrows denote nonlinear environmental forcings and feedbacks (adapted from [3]). The arrows denote nonlinear interactions interactions between between and and within within natural natural and and human human forcings. forcings. From: From: Pielke, Pielke, R.A. R.A. Sr., Sr., 2004: 2004: Discussion Discussion Forum: Forum: A A broader broader perspective perspective on on climate climate change change is is needed. needed. IGBP IGBP Newsletter, Newsletter, 59, 59, 16-19. 16-19. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/NR-139.pdf http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/NR-139.pdf March March 11 snowpack snowpack percent percent of of average average for for the the state state of of Colorado Colorado for for 1968-2008. 1968-2008. ftp://ftp-fc.sc.egov.usda.gov/CO/Snow/snow/watershed/monthly/marstatetime.gif ftp://ftp-fc.sc.egov.usda.gov/CO/Snow/snow/watershed/monthly/marstatetime.gif Resource Specific Impact Level with Respect to Water Resources - June 2004 ¾ Question If you were given 100 million dollars to spend on environmental benefits in Colorado, where would you use that money? 1. subsidies for alternative energy 2. purchasing wilderness areas (e.g., through the Nature Conservancy) 3. building/enlarging water impoundments 4. building pipelines to transport water over large distances 5. purchasing open spaces in growing urban areas 6. funding additional mass transit ¾ Where Should This Money Come From? 1. carbon usage tax 2. mileage driven tax 3. lottery 4. tax on large private vehicles 5. state income tax increase 6. property tax increase Roger A. Pielke Sr. Weblog http://climatesci.org http://climatesci.org Roger A. Pielke Sr. Website http://cires.colorado.edu/science/groups/pielke http://cires.colorado.edu/science/groups/pielke PowerPoint PowerPoint Presentation Presentation Prepared Prepared by by Dallas Dallas Jean Jean Staley Staley Research Research Assistant Assistant and and Webmaster Webmaster University University of of Colorado Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado Colorado 80309 80309 [email protected] [email protected] Background Background Photograph Photograph Courtesy Courtesy of of Mike Mike Hollingshead Hollingshead http://www.extremeinstability.com/index.htm http://www.extremeinstability.com/index.htm