Download The Diverse Role Of Humans Need to Broaden the Perspective Presented to

The Diverse Role Of Humans
Within the Climate System - A
Need to Broaden the
Perspective Presented to
Policymakers
Roger
Roger A.
A. Pielke
Pielke Sr.,
Sr., Senior
Senior Research
Research Scientist
Scientist
University
University of
of Colorado,
Colorado, Boulder
Boulder
Professor
Professor Emeritus,
Emeritus, Colorado
Colorado State
State University
University
CUAHSI
CUAHSI Biennial
Biennial Colloquium
Colloquium on
on Hydrologic
Hydrologic Science
Science and
and Engineering
Engineering
July
July 14-16,
14-16, 2008,
2008, Boulder,
Boulder, Colorado
Colorado
• The most appropriate metric to assess ‘global
warming or cooling’ are the changes in heat unit
(Joules) stores in accessible components of the
earth’s environmental system.
• Humans can produce a net change in the
storage and/or a redistribution of where the heat
energy is stored.
• Heat units of Joules can be expressed in terms
23 Joules per decade
of a heating rate (1.6 X 1023
corresponds to an average earth system
-2).
heating rate of 1.0 Watts m-2
From:
From: National
National Research
Research Council,
Council, 2005:
2005: Radiative
Radiative Forcing
Forcing of
of Climate
Climate Change:
Change:
Expanding
Expanding the
the Concept
Concept and
and Addressing
Addressing Uncertainties,
Uncertainties, Committee
Committee on
on Radiative
Radiative Forcing
Forcing
Effects
Effects on
on Climate,
Climate, Climate
Climate Research
Research Committee,
Committee, 224
224 pp.
pp.
http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11175.html
http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11175.html
Only One Of These Hypotheses
Can Be True
•• The
The human
human influence
influence is
is minimal
minimal and
and natural
natural
variations
variations dominate
dominate climate
climate variations
variations on
on all
all time
time
scales;
scales;
•• While
While natural
natural variations
variations are
are important,
important, the
the human
human
influence
influence is
is significant
significant and
and involves
involves aa diverse
diverse range
range
of
of first-order
first-order climate
climate forcings,
forcings, including,
including, but
but not
not
limited
limited to
to the
the human
human input
input of
of CO
CO22;;
•• The
The human
human influence
influence is
is dominated
dominated by
by the
the emissions
emissions
into
into the
the atmosphere
atmosphere of
of greenhouse
greenhouse gases,
gases,
particularly
particularly carbon
carbon dioxide.
dioxide.
The Human Climate Forcings That
Have Been Ignored, Or Are
Insufficiently Presented In The
2007 IPCC Report
•• The
The influence
influence of
of human-caused
human-caused aerosols
aerosols on
on regional
regional
(and
(and global)
global) radiative
radiative heating
heating
•• The
The effect
effect of
of aerosols
aerosols on
on clouds
clouds and
and precipitation
precipitation
•• The
The influence
influence of
of aerosol
aerosol deposition
deposition (e.g.
(e.g. soot;
soot;
nitrogen)
nitrogen) on
on climate
climate
•• The
The effect
effect of
of land
land cover/
cover/ land
land use
use on
on climate
climate
•• The
The biogeochemical
biogeochemical effect
effect of
of added
added atmospheric
atmospheric CO
CO22
From:
From: National
National Research
Research
Council,
Council, 2005:
2005: Radiative
Radiative Forcing
Forcing
of
of Climate
Climate Change:
Change: Expanding
Expanding
the
the Concept
Concept and
and Addressing
Addressing
Uncertainties,
Uncertainties, Committee
Committee on
on
Radiative
Radiative Forcing
Forcing Effects
Effects on
on
Climate,
Climate, Climate
Climate Research
Research
Committee,
Committee, 224
224 pp.
pp.
http://books.nap.edu/openbook/
http://books.nap.edu/openbook/
0309095069/gifmid/40.gif
0309095069/gifmid/40.gif
Change
Change In
In Regional
Regional Water
Water Cycle
Cycle
Due
Due to
to Landscape
Landscape Change
Change
U.S.
U.S. Geological
Geological Survey
Survey land-cover
land-cover classes
classes for
for pre-1900’s
pre-1900’s natural
natural conditions
conditions (left)
(left)
and
and 1993
1993 land-use
land-use patterns
patterns (right).
(right).
From
From Marshall,
Marshall, C.H.
C.H. Jr.,
Jr., R.A.
R.A. Pielke
Pielke Sr.,
Sr., L.T.
L.T. Steyaert,
Steyaert, and
and D.A.
D.A. Willard,
Willard, 2004:
2004: The
The
impact
impact of
of anthropogenic
anthropogenic land-cover
land-cover change
change on
on the
the Florida
Florida peninsula
peninsula sea
sea
breezes
breezes and
and warm
warm season
season sensible
sensible weather.
weather. Mon.
Mon. Wea.
Wea. Rev.,
Rev., 132,
132, 28-52.
28-52.
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-272.pdf
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-272.pdf
From
From Marshall,
Marshall, C.H.
C.H. Jr.,
Jr., R.A.
R.A. Pielke
Pielke Sr.,
Sr., L.T.
L.T. Steyaert,
Steyaert, and
and D.A.
D.A. Willard,
Willard, 2004:
2004: The
The
impact
impact of
of anthropogenic
anthropogenic land-cover
land-cover change
change on
on the
the Florida
Florida peninsula
peninsula sea
sea
breezes
breezes and
and warm
warm season
season sensible
sensible weather.
weather. Mon.
Mon. Wea.
Wea. Rev.,
Rev., 132,
132, 28
28 52.
52.
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-272.pdf
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-272.pdf
From Marshall, C.H. Jr., R.A. Pielke
Sr., L.T. Steyaert, and D.A. Willard,
2004: The impact of anthropogenic
land-cover change on the Florida
peninsula sea breezes and warm
season sensible weather. Mon. Wea.
Rev., 132, 28-52.
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/
pdf/R-272.pdf
Associated convective rainfall (mm) from
the model simulations of July-August 1973
with pre-1900s land cover (top), 1993 land
use (middle), and the difference field for
the two (bottom; 1993 minus pre-1900s
case). From Marshall, C.H. Jr., R.A. Pielke
Sr., L.T. Steyaert, and D.A. Willard, 2004:
The impact of anthropogenic land-cover
change on the Florida peninsula sea
breezes and warm season sensible
weather. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 28-52.
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications
/pdf/R-272.pdf
Same as previous figure except for July
and August, 1989. From Marshall, C.H. Jr.,
R.A. Pielke Sr., L.T. Steyaert, and D.A.
Willard, 2004: The impact of
anthropogenic land-cover change on the
Florida peninsula sea breezes and warm
season sensible weather. Mon. Wea. Rev.,
132, 28-52.
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications
/pdf/R-272.pdf
Two-month average of the daily maximum
shelter-level temperature (°C) from the
model simulations of Jul-Aug 1989 with
(top) natural land cover, (middle) current
land cover. From Marshall, C.H. Jr., R.A.
Pielke Sr., L.T. Steyaert, and D.A. Willard,
2004: The impact of anthropogenic landcover change on the Florida peninsula sea
breezes and warm season sensible
weather. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 28-52.
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/
pdf/R-272.pdf
Same as previous figure except for daily
minimum temperature. From Marshall, C.H. Jr.,
R.A. Pielke Sr., L.T. Steyaert, and D.A. Willard,
2004: The impact of anthropogenic land-cover
change on the Florida peninsula sea breezes
and warm season sensible weather. Mon. Wea.
Rev., 132, 28-52.
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/
R-272.pdf
Gradient
Gradient of
of Radiative
Radiative Forcing
Forcing
The Normalized Gradient of
Radiative Forcing (NGoRF) is the
fraction of the present
Earth’s heterogeneous insolation
attributed to human activity
on different horizontal scales
GoRFanthro
anthro
NGoRF =
GoRFtotal
total
GoRFtotal
total
∂ R total
total
=
∂λ
G oRFanthro
anthro
∂ R anthro
anthro
=
∂λ
From:
From: Matsui,
Matsui, T.,
T., and
and R.A.
R.A. Pielke
Pielke Sr.,
Sr., 2006:
2006: Measurement-based
Measurement-based estimation
estimation of
of the
the spatial
spatial gradient
gradient of
of
aerosol
radiative
forcing.
Geophys.
Res.
Letts.,
33,
L11813,
doi:10.1029/2006GL025974.
aerosol radiative forcing. Geophys. Res. Letts., 33, L11813, doi:10.1029/2006GL025974.
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-312.pdf
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-312.pdf
Figure
Figure 1.
1. Shortwave
Shortwave aerosol
aerosol direct
direct radiative
radiative forcing
forcing (ADRF)
(ADRF) for
for top-of
top-of atmosphere
atmosphere
(TOA),
surface,
and
atmosphere.
From:
Matsui,
T.,
and
R.A.
Pielke
Sr.,
(TOA), surface, and atmosphere. From: Matsui, T., and R.A. Pielke Sr., 2006:
2006:
Measurement-based
estimation
of
the
spatial
gradient
of
aerosol
radiative
Measurement-based estimation of the spatial gradient of aerosol radiative forcing.
forcing.
Geophys.
Geophys. Res.
Res. Letts.,
Letts., 33,
33, L11813,
L11813, doi:10.1029/2006GL025974.
doi:10.1029/2006GL025974.
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-312.pdf
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-312.pdf
Figure
Figure 2.
2. Vertical
Vertical profile
profile of
of atmospheric
atmospheric heating
heating rate
rate (K
(K day
day-1-1)) due
due to
to shortwave
shortwave
ADRF.
ADRF. Vertical
Vertical coordinate
coordinate is
is pressure
pressure level
level (mb).
(mb). From:
From: Matsui,
Matsui, T.,
T., and
and R.A.
R.A. Pielke
Pielke
Sr.,
Sr., 2006:
2006: Measurement-based
Measurement-based estimation
estimation of
of the
the spatial
spatial gradient
gradient of
of aerosol
aerosol
radiative
radiative forcing.
forcing. Geophys.
Geophys. Res.
Res. Letts.,
Letts., 33,
33, L11813,
L11813, doi:10.1029/2006GL025974.
doi:10.1029/2006GL025974.
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-312.pdf
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-312.pdf
Figure
Figure 3.
3. Shortwave
Shortwave aerosol
aerosol indirect
indirect radiative
radiative forcing
forcing (AIRF)
(AIRF) for
for top-of
top-of atmosphere
atmosphere
(TOA),
(TOA), surface,
surface, and
and atmosphere.
atmosphere. From:
From: Matsui,
Matsui, T.,
T., and
and R.A.
R.A. Pielke
Pielke Sr.,
Sr., 2006:
2006:
Measurement-based
Measurement-based estimation
estimation of
of the
the spatial
spatial gradient
gradient of
of aerosol
aerosol radiative
radiative forcing.
forcing.
Geophys.
Geophys. Res.
Res. Letts.,
Letts., 33,
33, L11813,
L11813, doi:10.1029/2006GL025974.
doi:10.1029/2006GL025974.
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-312.pdf
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-312.pdf
raditive forcing
forcing
raditive
(W/m2)
(W/m2)
Figure
Figure 4.
4. Comparison
Comparison of
of Mean
Mean TOA
TOA radiative
radiative forcing
forcing between
between infrared
infrared GRF,
GRF,
shortwave
shortwave ADRF,
ADRF, and
and shortwave
shortwave AIRF.
AIRF. From:
From: Matsui,
Matsui, T.,
T., and
and R.A.
R.A. Pielke
Pielke Sr.,
Sr., 2006:
2006:
Measurement-based
Measurement-based estimation
estimation of
of the
the spatial
spatial gradient
gradient of
of aerosol
aerosol radiative
radiative forcing.
forcing.
Geophys.
Geophys. Res.
Res. Letts.,
Letts., 33,
33, L11813,
L11813, doi:10.1029/2006GL025974.
doi:10.1029/2006GL025974.
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-312.pdf
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-312.pdf
mean
mean TOA
TOA radiative
radiative forcing
forcing
22
11
1.7
1.7
00
-1
-1
-2
-2
GRF
GRF
-1.59
-1.59
-1.38
-1.38
ADRF
ADRF AIRF
AIRF
NGoRF
NGoRF
Figure
Figure 5.
5. Comparison
Comparison of
of the
the meridional
meridional and
and the
the zonal
zonal component
component of
of NGoRF
NGoRF between
between
infrared
infrared GRF,
GRF, shortwave
shortwave ADRF,
ADRF, and
and shortwave
shortwave AIRF
AIRF for
for atmosphere
atmosphere and
and surface.
surface. From:
From:
Matsui,
Matsui, T.,
T., and
and R.A.
R.A. Pielke
Pielke Sr.,
Sr., 2006:
2006: Measurement-based
Measurement-based estimation
estimation of
of the
the spatial
spatial
gradient
gradient of
of aerosol
aerosol radiative
radiative forcing.
forcing. Geophys.
Geophys. Res.
Res. Letts.,
Letts., 33,
33, L11813,
L11813,
doi:10.1029/2006GL025974.
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-312.pdf
doi:10.1029/2006GL025974. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-312.pdf
surface
surface
0.2
0.2
0.15
0.15
0.1
0.1
0.05
0.05
00
00
55
ADRF(zone)
ADRF(zone)
ADRF(meri)
ADRF(meri)
10
15
10
15
distance
(degree)
distance (degree)
AIRF(zone)
AIRF(zone)
AIRF(meri)
AIRF(meri)
20
20
GRF(zone)
GRF(zone)
GRF(meri)
GRF(meri)
atmosphere
atmosphere
NGoRF
NGoRF
0.2
0.2
0.15
0.15
0.1
0.1
0.05
0.05
00
00
55
10
10
15
15
20
20
The aerosol effect on
atmospheric circulations, as a
result of their alteration in the
heating of regions of the
atmosphere, is 60 times greater
than due to the heating effect of
the human addition of well-mixed
greenhouse gases
The Actual Global Heat Change in
the Last 50 Years is Relatively Small
Estimate
Estimate of
of actual
actual climate
climate system
system heat
heat change
change from
from the
the early
early 1950s-1995
1950s-1995 is
is 0.3
0.3
Watts
Watts per
per meter
meter squared
squared (Pielke
(Pielke 2003)
2003) based
based on
on ocean
ocean heat
heat storage
storage changes
changes
(Levitus
(Levitus et
et al.
al. 2000).
2000). Figure
Figure from
from Houghton
Houghton et
et al.
al. Eds.,
Eds., 2001:
2001: Summary
Summary for
for
Policymakers:
Policymakers: http://www.ipcc.ch
http://www.ipcc.ch
2007 IPCC SPM View
FIGURE SPM-2. Global-average radiative forcing (RF) estimates
and ranges in 2005 for anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2),
methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and other important
agents and mechanisms, together with the typical
geographical extent (spatial scale) of the forcing and the
assessed level of scientific understanding (LOSU). The net
anthropogenic radiative forcing and its range are also
shown. These require summing asymmetric uncertainty
estimates from the component terms, and cannot be
obtained by simple addition. Additional forcing factors not
included here are considered to have a very low LOSU.
Volcanic aerosols contribute an additional natural forcing
but are not included in this figure due to their episodic
nature. Range for linear contrails does not include other
possible effects of aviation on cloudiness.
Effect of the Spatial Redistribution
of Surface Heating (El Niño)
••
El
El Niño
Niño has
has aa major
major effect
effect on
on weather
weather thousands
thousands of
of kilometers
kilometers from
from the
the
tropical
tropical Pacific
Pacific Ocean
Ocean (Shabbar
(Shabbar et
et al.
al. 1997).
1997).
••
The
The presence
presence of
of warm
warm SSTs
SSTs permit
permit thunderstorms
thunderstorms to
to occur
occur which
which otherwise
otherwise
would
would not
not have
have occurred.
occurred.
••
These
These thunderstorms
thunderstorms export
export vast
vast amounts
amounts of
of heat,
heat, moisture,
moisture, and
and kinetic
kinetic
energy
energy to
to the
the middle
middle and
and higher
higher latitudes,
latitudes, which
which alter
alter the
the ridge
ridge and
and trough
trough
patterns
patterns associated
associated with
with the
the polar
polar jet
jet stream
stream (Hou
(Hou 1998).
1998).
••
El
El Niños
Niños have
have such
such aa major
major effect
effect on
on weather
weather due
due to
to their
their large
large magnitude,
magnitude,
long
long persistence,
persistence, and
and spatial
spatial coherence
coherence (Wu
(Wu and
and Newell
Newell 1998).
1998).
••
Tropical
Tropical thunderstorms
thunderstorms are
are referred
referred to
to as
as “hot
“hot towers”
towers” and
and are
are the
the conduit
conduit to
to
higher
higher latitudes
latitudes as
as part
part of
of the
the Hadley
Hadley circulations
circulations (Riehl
(Riehl and
and Malkus
Malkus 1958;
1958;
Riehl
Riehl and
and Simpson
Simpson 1979).
1979).
••
Most
Most thunderstorms
thunderstorms occur
occur over
over tropical
tropical and
and midlatitude
midlatitude land
land masses
masses and
and in
in
the
the warm
warm season
season (Lyons
(Lyons 1999;
1999; Rosenfeld
Rosenfeld 2000).
2000).
Therefore,
Therefore, the
the Earth’s
Earth’s climate
climate system
system must
must also
also be
be sensitive
sensitive to
to
land-use
land-use change
change in
in those
those regions
regions where
where thunderstorms
thunderstorms occur.
occur.
El Niño Teleconnection Effect
El Niño-Natural
Prepared by T.N. Chase, CU, Boulder, CO.
El Niño-Control
Prepared by T.N. Chase, CU, Boulder, CO
El Niño-Control
Prepared by T.N. Chase, CU, Boulder, CO
Global-Averaged Absolute Value Difference
of Sensible and Latent Heat Fluxes
Averaged for 12 Januaries: El Niño
Teleconnection
Average Latent
January
6.1 Watts m-2
Heat Flux
Average Sensible
January
2.4 Watts m-2
Heat Flux
Effect of the Spatial Redistribution of
Surface Heating (Land-Use Change)
From:
From: Pielke
Pielke Sr.,
Sr., R.A.,
R.A., G.
G. Marland,
Marland, R.A.
R.A. Betts,
Betts, T.N.
T.N. Chase,
Chase, J.L.
J.L. Eastman,
Eastman, J.O.
J.O. Niles,
Niles, D.
D. Niyogi,
Niyogi, and
and S.
S.
Running,
2002:
The
influence
of
land-use
change
and
landscape
dynamics
on
the
climate
system:
Running, 2002: The influence of land-use change and landscape dynamics on the climate system:
Relevance
Relevance to
to climate
climate change
change policy
policy beyond
beyond the
the radiative
radiative effect
effect of
of greenhouse
greenhouse gases.
gases. Phil.
Phil. Trans.
Trans. A.
A.
Special
Special Theme
Theme Issue,
Issue, 360,
360, 1705-1719.
1705-1719.
From:
From: Pielke
Pielke Sr.,
Sr., R.A.,
R.A., G.
G. Marland,
Marland, R.A.
R.A. Betts,
Betts, T.N.
T.N. Chase,
Chase, J.L.
J.L. Eastman,
Eastman, J.O.
J.O. Niles,
Niles, D.
D. Niyogi,
Niyogi, and
and S.
S. Running,
Running, 2002:
2002:
The
The influence
influence of
of land-use
land-use change
change and
and landscape
landscape dynamics
dynamics on
on the
the climate
climate system:
system: Relevance
Relevance to
to climate
climate change
change policy
policy
beyond
the
radiative
effect
of
greenhouse
gases.
Phil.
Trans.
A.
Special
Theme
Issue,
360,
1705-1719.
beyond the radiative effect of greenhouse gases. Phil. Trans. A. Special Theme Issue, 360, 1705-1719.
From:
From: Pielke
Pielke Sr.,
Sr., R.A.,
R.A., G.
G. Marland,
Marland, R.A.
R.A. Betts,
Betts, T.N.
T.N. Chase,
Chase, J.L.
J.L. Eastman,
Eastman, J.O.
J.O. Niles,
Niles, D.
D. Niyogi,
Niyogi, and
and S.
S. Running,
Running, 2002:
2002:
The
The influence
influence of
of land-use
land-use change
change and
and landscape
landscape dynamics
dynamics on
on the
the climate
climate system:
system: Relevance
Relevance to
to climate
climate change
change policy
policy
beyond
the
radiative
effect
of
greenhouse
gases.
Phil.
Trans.
A.
Special
Theme
Issue,
360,
1705-1719.
beyond the radiative effect of greenhouse gases. Phil. Trans. A. Special Theme Issue, 360, 1705-1719.
From:
From: Pielke
Pielke Sr.,
Sr., R.A.,
R.A., G.
G. Marland,
Marland, R.A.
R.A. Betts,
Betts, T.N.
T.N. Chase,
Chase, J.L.
J.L. Eastman,
Eastman, J.O.
J.O. Niles,
Niles, D.
D. Niyogi,
Niyogi, and
and S.
S. Running,
Running, 2002:
2002:
The
influence
of
land-use
change
and
landscape
dynamics
on
the
climate
system:
Relevance
to
climate
change
The influence of land-use change and landscape dynamics on the climate system: Relevance to climate change policy
policy
beyond
beyond the
the radiative
radiative effect
effect of
of greenhouse
greenhouse gases.
gases. Phil.
Phil. Trans.
Trans. A.
A. Special
Special Theme
Theme Issue,
Issue, 360,
360, 1705-1719.
1705-1719.
From:
From: Pielke
Pielke Sr.,
Sr., R.A.,
R.A., G.
G. Marland,
Marland, R.A.
R.A. Betts,
Betts, T.N.
T.N. Chase,
Chase, J.L.
J.L. Eastman,
Eastman, J.O.
J.O. Niles,
Niles, D.
D. Niyogi,
Niyogi, and
and S.
S. Running,
Running, 2002:
2002:
The
The influence
influence of
of land-use
land-use change
change and
and landscape
landscape dynamics
dynamics on
on the
the climate
climate system:
system: Relevance
Relevance to
to climate
climate change
change policy
policy
beyond
the
radiative
effect
of
greenhouse
gases.
Phil.
Trans.
A.
Special
Theme
Issue,
360,
1705-1719.
beyond the radiative effect of greenhouse gases. Phil. Trans. A. Special Theme Issue, 360, 1705-1719.
Redistribution of Heat Due to the
Human Disturbance of the
Earth’s Climate System
Globally-Average Absolute Value of Sensible Heat
Plus Latent Heat
Only Where
Land Use
Occurred
Teleconnections
July
1.08 Watts m-2
January
0.7 Watts m-2
July
8.90 Watts m-2
Included
January
9.47 Watts m-2
Global redistribution of heat is on the same order as an El Niño
Spatial Redistribution of Heat is also
Associated with a Spatial
Redistribution of Water
R
RNN == Q
QGG ++ H
H ++ L(E+T)
L(E+T)
PP == E
E ++ TT ++ RO
RO ++ II
New
New Metric:
Metric: Changes
Changes in
in δP;
δP; δT;
δT; δRO;
δRO; δI
δI
From
From Pielke
Pielke Sr.,
Sr., R.A.,
R.A., 2001:
2001: Influence
Influence of
of the
the spatial
spatial distribution
distribution of
of vegetation
vegetation and
and
soils
soils on
on the
the prediction
prediction of
of cumulus
cumulus convective
convective rainfall.
rainfall. Rev.
Rev. Geophys.,
Geophys., 39,151-177.
39,151-177.
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-231.pdf
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-231.pdf
Alteration in Surface Water Fluxes
Associated With Land-Use Change
Adapted
Adapted from
from P.
P. Kabat
Kabat (personal
(personal communication,
communication, 1999).
1999). From
From Pielke
Pielke Sr.,
Sr., R.A.,
R.A., 2001:
2001: Influence
Influence of
of the
the
spatial
spatial distribution
distribution of
of vegetation
vegetation and
and soils
soils on
on the
the prediction
prediction of
of cumulus
cumulus convective
convective rainfall.
rainfall. Rev.
Rev.
Geophys.,
Geophys., 39,151-177.
39,151-177. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-231.pdf
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-231.pdf
Alteration of Thermodynamic Profile
Associated with Land-Use Change
From Pielke Sr., R.A., 2001: Influence of the spatial distribution of vegetation and soils on the prediction of
cumulus convective rainfall. Rev. Geophys., 39,151-177.
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-231.pdf
Effect of Land-Use Change on Deep
Cumulonimbus Convection
From Pielke Sr., R.A., 2001: Influence of the spatial distribution of vegetation and soils on the
prediction of cumulus convective rainfall. Rev. Geophys., 39,151-177.
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-231.pdf
Mean July Convective Available Potential
Energy (CAPE) (J kg-1) from 12 Z
Radiosonde Observations
From U. Nair and R. Welch (personal communication, 2000). Pielke Sr., R.A., 2001: Influence of the
spatial distribution of vegetation and soils on the prediction of cumulus convective rainfall. Rev.
Geophys., 39,151-177. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-231.pdf
Changes in Mean July CAPE Due to a 1°C Increase
in Surface Layer Dewpoint Temperature
Alterations in surface moisture fluxes alter CAPE
From U. Nair and R. Welch (personal communication, 2000). Pielke Sr., R.A., 2001: Influence of the
spatial distribution of vegetation and soils on the prediction of cumulus convective rainfall. Rev.
Geophys., 39,151-177. http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-231.pdf
Smaller-Scale Spatial Variations in Landscape
Change Also Affect the Water Cycle
From
From Avissar
Avissar and
and Liu
Liu (1996).
(1996). Pielke
Pielke Sr.,
Sr., R.A.,
R.A., 2001:
2001: Influence
Influence of
of the
the spatial
spatial distribution
distribution of
of vegetation
vegetation
and
soils
on
the
prediction
of
cumulus
convective
rainfall.
Rev.
Geophys.,
39,151-177.
and soils on the prediction of cumulus convective rainfall. Rev. Geophys., 39,151-177.
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-231.pdf
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-231.pdf
From Avissar and Liu (1996). Pielke Sr., R.A., 2001: Influence of the spatial distribution of vegetation
and soils on the prediction of cumulus convective rainfall. Rev. Geophys., 39,151-177.
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/R-231.pdf
Global Water Cycle Metric
Absolute Value of Globally-Averaged Change is 1.2 mm/day.
Prepared by T.N. Chase, CU, Boulder, CO.
Global Water Cycle Metric
Absolute
Absolute Value
Value of
of Globally-Averaged
Globally-Averaged Change
Change is
is 0.6
0.6 mm/day
mm/day
Prepared by T.N. Chase, CU, Boulder, CO.
SUMMARY
• Landscape change and vegetation
dynamics both result in a significant global
redistribution of heat and water within the
global climate system.
• This redistribution of heat and water has
already had an effect on the global climate
system this is at least as large as the IPCC
and National Assessment have attributed to
the radiative effect of a doubling of carbon
dioxide.
A
A Focus
Focus on
on Vulnerability
Vulnerability
Schematic
Schematic of
of the
the relation
relation of
of water
water resource
resource vulnerability
vulnerability to
to the
the spectrum
spectrum of
of the
the
environmental
forcings
and
feedbacks
(adapted
from
[3]).
The
arrows
denote
nonlinear
environmental forcings and feedbacks (adapted from [3]). The arrows denote nonlinear
interactions
interactions between
between and
and within
within natural
natural and
and human
human forcings.
forcings. From:
From: Pielke,
Pielke, R.A.
R.A. Sr.,
Sr.,
2004:
2004: Discussion
Discussion Forum:
Forum: A
A broader
broader perspective
perspective on
on climate
climate change
change is
is needed.
needed. IGBP
IGBP
Newsletter,
Newsletter, 59,
59, 16-19.
16-19.
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/NR-139.pdf
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/NR-139.pdf
May
May 11 snowpack
snowpack percent
percent of
of average
average for
for the
the state
state of
of Colorado
Colorado for
for 1968-2008.
1968-2008.
ftp://ftp-fc.sc.egov.usda.gov/CO/Snow/snow/watershed/monthly/maystatetime.gif
Resource Specific Impact Level with Respect to
Water Resources - June 2004
¾ Question
If you were given 100 million dollars to spend on environmental
benefits in Colorado, where would you use that money?
1. subsidies for alternative energy
2. purchasing wilderness areas (e.g., through the Nature Conservancy)
3. building/enlarging water impoundments
4. building pipelines to transport water over large distances
5. purchasing open spaces in growing urban areas
6. funding additional mass transit
¾ Where Should This Money Come From?
1. carbon usage tax
2. mileage driven tax
3. lottery
4. tax on large private vehicles
5. state income tax increase
6. property tax increase
Roger A. Pielke Sr. Weblog
http://climatesci.org
http://climatesci.org
Roger A. Pielke Sr. Website
http://cires.colorado.edu/science/groups/pielke
http://cires.colorado.edu/science/groups/pielke
PowerPoint
PowerPoint Presentation
Presentation Prepared
Prepared by
by
Dallas
Dallas Jean
Jean Staley
Staley
Research
Research Assistant
Assistant and
and Webmaster
Webmaster
University
University of
of Colorado
Colorado
Boulder,
Boulder, Colorado
Colorado 80309
80309
[email protected]
[email protected]
Background
Background Photograph
Photograph Courtesy
Courtesy
of
of Mike
Mike Hollingshead
Hollingshead
http://www.extremeinstability.com/index.htm
http://www.extremeinstability.com/index.htm