Download Climate Change and

LETTERS
We understand the economic and practical
barriers faced by U.S. sponsors, as much as
we acknowledge their need to maintain
profits. Nonetheless, we see an urgent need
for international consensus on ethical guidelines for entities conducting clinical experiments overseas. Such guidelines must cover
all phases of a trial, from the design to the
follow-up, through the review process, but
they cannot be mere recommendations, as
seen so far. Compliance with these rules must
become a prior binding condition for the
approval of any study proposal. This would
constitute an important step taken against
scientific capitalism, ethical relativism, and,
in general, toward a fairer world.
IGNAZIO R. MARINO AND CLAUDIA CIRILLO
Department of Surgery, Jefferson Medical College,
1025 Walnut Street, Philadelphia, PA 19107, USA.
References and Notes
1. The National Bioethics Advisory Commission (NBAC),
Ethical and Policy Issues in International Research
(NBAC, Bethesda, MD, 2001).
2. World Medical Association (WMA), “Declaration of
Helsinki: Ethical Principles for Medical Research
Involving Human Subjects,” adopted in June 1964;
last note of clarification in 2002.
3. P. Lurie, S. M. Wolfe, Letter to the National Bioethics
Advisory Commission regarding their report on the
challenges of conducting research in developing
countries (Public Citizen Health Research Group
Publication No. 1545), 13 Nov. 2000 (available at
www.citizen.org/publications/release.cfm?ID=6746).
Climate Change and
Malaria
SIR DAVID A. KING’S CLAIM THAT “CLIMATE
change is the most severe problem that we
are facing today—more serious even than
the threat of terrorism” (“Climate change
science: adapt, mitigate, or ignore?”,
Policy Forum, 9 Jan., p. 176) is based, in
part, on UK government-sponsored
impacts analyses (1, 2) that estimate that by
the 2080s, because “of continued warming,
millions more people around the world
may in future be exposed to the risk of
hunger, drought, flooding, and debilitating
diseases such as malaria. Poor people in
developing countries are likely to be most
vulnerable” (p. 176). But the very studies
underlying the latter quote, and which
King cites, show that, for the most part,
many more millions would be at risk in the
absence of climate change (2). For
instance, the population at risk of malaria
(PAR-M) in the absence of climate change
is projected to double between 1990 and
the 2080s, to 8,820 million (2). However,
unmitigated climate change would, by the
2080s, further increase PAR-M by another
257 to 323 million (2).
www.sciencemag.org
SCIENCE
VOL 306
Published by AAAS
Thus, by the 2080s, halting further
climate change would, at best, reduce total
PAR-M by 3.5% [=100 × 323/(323 +
8,820)] (3). On the other hand, reducing
carbon dioxide emissions with the goal of
eventually stabilizing carbon dioxide at
550 ppm would reduce total PAR-M by
2.8% (2) at a cost to developed nations,
according to King, of 1% of GDP in 2050
(p. 177), or about $280 billion in today’s
terms (4). But malaria’s current annual
death toll of about 1 million could be
halved at an annual cost of $1.25 billion or
less, according to the World Health
Organization, through a combination of
measures such as residual home spraying
with insecticides, insecticide-treated
bednets, improved case management, and
more comprehensive antenatal care (5).
Clearly, implementing such measures now
would provide greater malaria benefits
over the next few decades than would
climate stabilization at any level. It would
also reduce vulnerability to malaria from
all causes—man-made or natural—now
and in the future (3). Similarly, reducing
present-day vulnerabilities to the other risk
factors mentioned by King (i.e., hunger,
water shortage, and flooding) could well
provide larger benefits at lower costs over
1 OCTOBER 2004
55
LETTERS
the next few decades than would climate
change mitigation efforts that go beyond
so-called “no-regret” actions, that is,
actions that are worth undertaking on their
own merits unrelated to any climate
change–related concerns (e.g., elimination
of subsidies for fossil fuel usage or land
clearance) (3).
The World Bank estimates that with
additional annual expenditures of $40 to
$60 billion, the United Nation’s Millennium Development Goals to advance
sustainable development could be reached
by 2015 (6, 7). Comparing these goals
(e.g., at least halving poverty, hunger, illiteracy, child and maternal mortality, and
the proportions of populations lacking safe
water and sanitation) (6) against what can
be expected from halting further climate
change (2) indicates that no matter how
serious climate change is compared to
terrorism, it pales by comparison with the
more mundane problems poor people in
developing countries face today and over
the next few decades. Even advancing
halfway toward those goals would provide
greater benefits for environmental and
human well-being from now through the
2080s, and do so more economically than
would heroic mitigation efforts (2, 6).
Thus, it would be far more beneficial, and
cost-effective, at least for the next several
decades, to reduce vulnerabilities to
current problems, especially if they might
be exacerbated by climate change (e.g.,
hunger, malaria, drought, and flooding)
(3). Even with a lagtime of 50 years to
account for the inertia of the climate and
energy system, the aforementioned
analyses suggest we may have at least a
quarter century window (2080s minus 50
years) before deciding on the depth and
extent of mitigation. Meanwhile, we
should focus on improving mitigation and
adaptation technologies and our knowledge of climate change science,
economics, and responses. This way we
can advance sustainable development and
solve the problems of today while
furthering our ability to solve the problems
of the day after tomorrow.
INDUR M. GOKLANY*
Office of Policy Analysis, U.S. Department of the
Interior, 1849 C Street, NW, Washington, DC
20240, USA. E-mail: [email protected]
*Views expressed here are the author’s and not
necessarily those of any unit of the federal
government.
References
M. L. Parry et al., Global Environ. Change 9, S1 (1999).
N. W. Arnell et al., Clim. Change 53, 413 (2002).
I. M. Goklany, Energy Environ. 14, 797 (2003).
World Bank, World Development Indicators (World
Bank, Washington, DC, 2004).
5. World Health Organization, World Health Report 1999
(WHO, Geneva, 1999).
1.
2.
3.
4.
6. World Bank, “The Costs of Attaining the Millennium
Development Goals,” available at www.worldbank.org/
html/extdr/mdgassessment.pdf (accessed 25 June 2004).
7. United Nations, “UN Millennium Development
Goals,” available at www.un.org/millenniumgoals/
(accessed 8 July 2004).
Response
THERE IS NO REAL CHOICE BETWEEN ACTION ON
climate change and action on poverty, disease,
hunger, and other millennium development
goals. These are part of the same sustainable
development agenda. Climate change is
already affecting developing countries, and it
is the poorest regions of the world—such as
Africa and Southeast Asia—that are most at
risk. The many people who have died and the
millions now homeless through the monsoon
flooding in Bangladesh will bear witness to
that. This kind of event can be expected to
become more frequent and more extreme as
global warming accelerates, exacerbated by
rising sea levels.
To meet the millennium development
goals, serious investment is needed in areas
such as public health and infrastructure for
water and energy. The British government
under Prime Minister Tony Blair’s leadership
is strongly committed to that. The total UK
official development assistance (ODA) will
rise to almost £6.5 billion by 2007/08, which
will mean that our ODA will have risen from
0.26% of Gross National Income (GNI) in
1997 to 0.47% in 2007/08.
At the same time, the clock is ticking as
concentrations of greenhouse gases mount in
the atmosphere. At well over 370 ppm, we are
already at 50% above preindustrial levels,
unlikely to have been seen on Earth for around
20 million years. Global action is needed now
if we are to retain the chance to stabilize emissions at a level to avoid even more dangerous
climate change than that to which we are
already committed. The work of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
representing the overwhelming majority of
world scientific opinion, including in the
United States, has shown that we are now on
track to seeing average global temperatures
rise by 1.5° to 5.8°C this century as a result of
human activities—burning of fossil fuels and
deforestation. Failure to act will result in a
price, both human and economic, that will be
paid across the world for generations to come.
Once CO2 is released into the atmosphere, it
will remain there for centuries.
That is why real climate action is
needed now at a global level. As Tony Blair
has announced, during our G8 Presidency,
we wish to deliver real progress on both
climate change and African development.
SIR DAVID A. KING
Chief Scientific Adviser to Her Majesty’s Government
and Head of the Office of Science and Technology, 1
Victoria Street, London SW1H 0ET, UK.
www.sciencemag.org
SCIENCE
VOL 306
Published by AAAS
A Bit of History About
Edwin A. Link
I WAS INTERESTED TO READ THE NEWS FOCUS
discussion regarding the fiscal and educational challenges being undertaken by many
U.S. marine laboratories, including the
Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO),
Harbor Branch Oceanographic Institution
(HBOI) and Woods Hole Oceanographic
Institution (WHOI) (“Saving Scripps,” D.
Malakoff, 9 July, p. 166). It is important that
the contributions of the pioneering engineers
and scientists who helped found these institutions not be overlooked, though.
For example, the photo caption accompanying the sidebar on p. 167 notes that the
Harbor Branch submersibles were named
after Seward Johnson Sr., but neglects to
mention that they were also named after the
late Edwin A. Link (1904–81), the engineer
and inventor who designed the Johnson-SeaLink (JSL) submersibles, as well as many
other novel marine engineering devices (e.g.,
the submersible decompression chamber and
the first pressurized diver lockout small
submersible). Link and Johnson worked hand
in hand from their respective engineering and
financial backgrounds during the founding
and initial operation of HBOI, and the name
of the submersibles reflects the importance of
their dual contributions.
The Link Foundation, established by Ed
Link and his wife, Marion, continues to
provide vital financial support to Harbor
Branch, including sponsorship of their
Summer Internship program, which this year
celebrates its 30th year of launching the
careers of future marine scientists and ocean
engineers.
RICHARD W. MURRAY*
Department of Earth Sciences, Boston University, 685
Commonwealth Avenue, Boston, MA 02215, USA.
*The author is Special Advisor to the Link
Foundation and grandnephew of Ed Link.
CORRECTIONS AND CLARIFICATIONS
News Focus: “Telescopes break new ground in quest
for cosmic rays” by D. Clery (3 Sept., p. 1393).The location given for the Whipple telescope was incorrect.
The Fred Lawrence Whipple Observatory is on Mount
Hopkins, Arizona, not Kitt Peak.
Reports: “Foundering lithosphere imaged beneath the
southern Sierra Nevada, California, USA,” by O. S. Boyd
et al. (30 July, p. 660). There were errors in temperatures reported in the Fig. 3 caption. The correct
sentence is “Compositions defined in the text that
best match the seismic observations are garnet pyroxenite (red diamond) at 1000°C, spinel peridotite (red
circle) at 1200°C, and garnet peridotite (red triangle)
at 1000°C.”Also, the source of the fellowship listed in
the acknowledgments in reference 30 was incorrect. It
should have been the Cooperative Institute for
Research in Environmental Sciences.
1 OCTOBER 2004
57