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Transcript
The Triple Bottom Line Perspective for Climate Resilience in Transportation Infrastructure Planning By Sara Goldstein, Amy Schweikert and Dr. Paul Chinowsky Institute of Climate and Civil Systems QUESTION How can policy makers include more than just economic considerations in infrastructure development and investment? METHODOLOGY • • • • Analysis is preformed with 22 IPCC-approved General Circulation Models (GCMs). GCMs determine a range of climate change future scenarios. Analysis includes national, sub-national, and smaller climate research unit levels. Displayed by default at the 5th, 50th (median) and 95th percentile models to give a range of possible future risk from climate impacts. ECONOMIC Cumulative Cost by 2050 (USD M) California Cost by County 2050 - 95% Climate Scenario Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report ENVIRONMENTAL $90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $Proactive No Adapt Temperature: California 95% • Precipitation and heat will change in a give area due to climate change • GCMs predict futures of changing precipitation • IPSS models these change trends up till 2100. Social Vulnerability Map of California Adapt SOCIAL High Medium The Triple Bottom Line • Climate change will effect infrastructure’s life span • Evaluates cost from climate impact on existing infrastructure . • Infrastructure is important economically to any area Reactive Precipitation: California 95% IPSS is the first system to analyze climate change impact based on specific stressor-response equations that provide quantitative modeling and cost impact projections. Roads Low -transportation -IPSS climate analysis of roads -Social vulnerability assessments in conjunction with economic and environmental impacts Social Vulnerability Index Factors (Cooley et. al 2012) Social -populations reaction to climate change based on social variables Households with AC Population over 25 with a diploma Born outside the US Impervious areas Residents living in institutions Limited English households Lack of Vehicles People of Color Households of poverty Pre-term births Renter households Over 65 and living along Tree canopy Under 18/ Youth fitness Unemployment Outdoor Jobs Pregnancy Food Access By accessing environmental changes and combining the cost of climate change, and social vulnerability index, we can have targeted infrastructure planning and investment that considers more than just an economic view point.
