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9th Annual Earth System and Space Science Poster Conference Friday, November 13, 2015 CU Sustainability, Energy, and Environment Complex (SEEC) 4001 Discovery Drive, Boulder, CO Sponsored by the University of Colorado Department of Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences (ATOC) Program: 10:30 a.m. – 11:30 a.m. Keynote Speaker: Dr. Michael Alexander, NOAA/ESRL 11:30 a.m. – 1:00 p.m. Poster Session: Sessions 1-4 1:00 p.m. – 2:30 p.m. Poster Session: Sessions 5-7 Keynote Speaker 10:30-11:30am An ENSO Survey: Precursors, Present Conditions, and Potential Impacts Dr. Michael Alexander, NOAA/ESRL The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a key component of the climate system that fluctuates on time scales of 2-7 years. During El Niño events anomalously warm water extends across much of the tropical Pacific Ocean in conjunction with an eastward shift of precipitation, a weakening of the trade winds and a deeper thermocline. The opposite conditions occur during La Niña events. The Southern Oscillation, indicative of the difference in sea level pressure between the tropical eastern and western Pacific/Australia, is negative during EN episodes, with lower pressure over the east Pacific. After a brief review of the components and theories of ENSO, we will examine the current state of the tropical Pacific and how it might evolve over the next few months. We will then explore some current research issues including ENSO precursors, ENSO diversity if there are two (or more) types of events –and the potential impacts of ENSO beyond the tropical Pacific. Dr. Michael Alexander is a research meteorologist at the Physical Sciences Division of the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder, Colorado. He was a Lead Author of the Oceans Chapter in the 2014 National Climate Assessment Report on Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Dr. Alexander currently has three main research foci: air-sea-ice interactions, processes that influence moisture transport and heavy precipitation the western United States, and climate change impacts on marine ecosystems. His studies of air-sea interaction include the influence of El Niño on global climate, precursors to El Niño events, and the effects of midlatitude sea surface temperatures and sea ice conditions on the atmospheric circulation. He recently investigated how moisture moves through the gaps in the Sierra Nevada and Cascade Mountains, resulting in heavy precipitation events in the US intermountain west. He has also worked closely with marine biologists to study how climate change may impact fish, such as the Atlantic croaker and river herring. 2 Participants by Research Area: Posters are separated by research area and then listed in order by poster number, followed by the participant’s name; poster title; and participant’s home department. Posters signed up for the best student poster competition will be judged from 11:30 a.m. – 1:00 p.m. for Sessions 1-4 and from 1:00 p.m. – 2:30 p.m. for Sessions 5-7. 00: Delev Helmig; Elementa - Science of the Anthropocene (INSTAAR) Session 1 – Atmospheric Chemistry 01: Megan Bela; Wet Removal of Soluble Species in Deep Convective Clouds (ATOC/LASP) 02: Sam Rossabi; Trace Gas Flux through Snow, Niwot Ridge (CHEM/INSTAAR) 03: Freja Østerstrøm; Atmospheric Chemistry of (CF3)2CHOCH3, (CF3)2CHOCHO, and CF3C(O)OCH3 (NCAR Visitor) 04: Rebecca Buchholz; Transported and local contributions to atmospheric carbon monoxide at Wollongong, Australia (NCAR/ACOM) 05: Daniel Liptzin; Spatial and temporal patterns of ozone in high elevation ecosystems of Colorado (INSTAAR) 06: Mark Leonard; First look at the NOAA Aircraft-based Tropospheric Ozone Climatology (ATOC/NOAA/STC) 07: Ben Gaubert; One year reanalysis of MOPITT-CO into the DART/CAM-Chem system (NCAR/ACOM) 07x: Scott Archer-Nicholls; Modeling the Regional Impacts of Cookstove Emissions on Air Quality in China (UCAR) Session 2 – Middle and Upper Atmosphere 08: Josh Pettit; Revisiting sources of NOx during 2003/2004 in the polar regions (ATOC/LASP) 09: Diana Loucks; Polar Ionosphere Structure & High Latitude Scintillation Impacts from the March 17, 2013 Geomagnetic Storm (ASEN) 10: Adrianna Hackett; Elevated stratopauses and the polar night jet oscillation (ATOC/LASP) 11: Jeff France; Interhemispheric coupling and 5-day wave effects on polar mesospheric clouds during the Northern Hemisphere 2014 season (LASP) 12: Pengfei Yu; Organics' contribution to Stratospheric AOD in CESM/CARMA (NOAA/CIRES) 13: Marta Abalos; Interannual variability in effective diffusivity in the UTLS (NCAR) 3 14: Alvaro de la Camara; Gravity wave forcing during the austral stratospheric polar vortex breakdown as simulated by LMDz (NCAR) Session 3 – Aerosols, Clouds, and Precipitation 15: Nathaniel Miller; The surface energy budget and the influence of clouds at Summit, Greenland (CIRES) 16: Matthew Steiner; Orographically Induced Convergence Zones in Complex Terrain (ATOC) 17: Warren Smith and Robinson Wallace; Analyzing the Role of Surface Cold Pools and Vorticity Generation in Idealized Tropical Cyclogenesis Simulations (ATOC/CIRES) 18: Bryan Rainwater; A New Laser Hygrometer for Measurements of Stable Isotopes in Cloud Water (ATOC) 19: Joshua Aikins; Turbulence as a Microphysical Growth Mechanism in Winter Clouds (ATOC/NOAA/CIRES) 20: Anondo Mukherjee; Assessing U.S. Embassy in Beijing's Measurements of PM2.5 (ATOC) 21: Louis Rivoire; Sensitivity study of CAPE calculation (CSU) 22: Alexandra Naegele; Unexpected Oscillation in Convectively-Aggregated State in CloudResolving Model (CSU) 23: Christopher Maloney; An Assessment of the Cirrus Cloud Representation in the Tropical Tropopause Layer of the CAM5/CARMA Model Through Comparisons With ATTREX 3 and CALIPSO Observations (ATOC) 24: Michael Mueller; Evaluating a WRF ensemble suite for two precipitation events over the Taylor Park watershed (NOAA ESRL PSD/CIRES) 25: Ariel Morrison; Processes controlling interannual variability of Arctic Ocean liquid cloud profiles (ATOC/CIRES) Session 4 – Boundary Layer and Wind Energy 26: Laura Mazzaro; Mesoscale to LES grid nesting in an idealized convective boundary layer (ATOC) 27: Clara St. Martin; Wind turbine nacelle transfer functions (NTFs) calculated from upwind LIDAR and tower measurements (ATOC) 28: Rochelle Worsnop; Using LES to examine the hurricane boundary layer for wind turbine design applications (ATOC) 29: Paul Quelet; Identification of Tower Wake Distortions in Sonic Anemometer Measurements (ATOC) 4 30: Leah Grant; How do surface fluxes influence cold pool evolution? (CSU) 31: Jessica Tomaszewski; Applicability of AERI, LiDAR, and Surface Mesonet Observations to the Resolving of Bore-Soliton Evolution (ATOC) 32: Katherine McCaffrey; Measurements of Turbulence Dissipation Rates from Wind Profiling Radars (NOAA ESRL PSD) Session 5 – Oceanography 33: Hannah Palmer; Suitability of estimating terrestrial potential evapotranspiration based on near-surface climate (ATOC/CIRES) 34: Alice Bradley; Temperature evolution of the upper Arctic Ocean mixed layer prior to the onset of freeze-up (ASEN/CCAR) 35: Natalie Freeman; Mapping the Polar Front and implications for Southern Ocean biogeochemistry (ATOC/INSTAAR) 36: Arin Nelson; How Well is Ocean Heat Content Variability Measured? (ATOC) 37: Jason West; Oceanic Rossby wave influence on Madden-Julian events from 1998—2012: An observational study (ATOC) 38: Jessica Kenigson; Predictors of North Atlantic Sea Level Change (ATOC) 39: Yuanlong Li; Decadal sea level variations in the Indian Ocean: roles of climate modes, ocean internal variability, and stochastic wind forcing (ATOC) 40: David Munro; Recent evidence for a strengthening CO2 sink in the Southern Ocean from carbonate system measurements in the Drake Passage (2002-2015) (ATOC/INSTAAR) 41: Gengxin Chen; Intraseasonal Variability of Upwelling in the Equatorial Eastern Indian Ocean (ATOC visitor) Session 6 – Climate and Large Scale Dynamics 42: Jie Feng; 3D Estimates of Analysis and Short-Range Forecast Error Variances (GSD/ESRL) 43: Abigail Ahlert; Diagnosing Factors Influencing AMOC Decline in GFDL Climate Models (ATOC) 44: Eric Wolf; Determining the inner edge of the habitable zone with 3D climate models (LASP/ATOC) 45: Yangyang Xu; The importance of aerosol scenarios in projections of future heat extremes (NCAR/CGD) 5 46: Cyril Palerme; Evaluation of current and projected Antarctic precipitation in CMIP5 models (ATOC visitor/CIRES) 47: Laura Holt; Tropical waves and the QBO in a 7-km global climate simulation (NWRA) 48: Catrin Mills; Mid-Latitude Atmospheric Responses to Arctic Sensible Heat Flux Anomalies in CCSM4 (CIRES) 49: Vineel Yettella; How will precipitation change in extratropical cyclones as the planet warms? (ATOC/CIRES) 50: Claudia Stephan; Toward an improved parameterization of convective gravity wave drag in global models (ATOC) 51: Josh Howie; Terrestrial Processes in CLM4.5: Observations and Model Output Comparisons (ATOC/NSIDC/CIRES) 52: Leah Lindsey; Amazon Deforestation Impacts on Eastern Pacific Climate (CSU) 53: Aleya Kaushik; Refining climate model parameterizations in the surface layer using stable water isotopes (ATOC/CIRES) 54: Matthew Tooth; Quantifying Sea Ice Advection Through Key “Gates” in the Arctic Using the Sea Ice Motion and Age Data Products at the University of Colorado, Boulder With Applications to Studying Changes in the Arctic Ice Pack (CCAR/ASEN) 55: Marie McGraw; Seasonal sensitivity of the eddy-driven jet to tropospheric heating in an idealized atmospheric general circulation model (CSU) 56: Vollmer Tyler; Tornadoes signatures and frequencies since the last glacial maximum in the Midwestern United States from existing records of dust and detrital input (UCLA) Session 7 – Remote Sensing and Radiative Transfer 57: Sabrina Cochrane; SEAC4RS Aerosol Radiative Effects and Heating Rates (ATOC/LASP) 58: William Armstrong; Glacier speedup from cross-correlation of optical satellite imagery and modeled numerically (GEOL/INSTAAR) 59: Logan Wright; Informed Source Separation of Atmospheric and Surface Signal Contributions in Shortwave Hyperspectral Imagery using Non-negative Matrix Factorization (ATOC/LASP) 60: Hong Chen; Impacts of Bias Corrections on Satellite-Derived Temperature Trends Associated with Orbital Drift and Orbital Differences (ATOC) 61: Rory Barton-Grimley; Novel Polarization Techniques and Instrumentation for Melt Pond and Supraglacial Lake Laser Bathymetry (ASEN/CCAR) 6 Participants by alphabetical order: Participants are listed in alphabetical order by last name of the author, followed by the poster location. Marta Abalos, 13 Abigail Ahlert, 43 Joshua Aikins, 19 Scott Archer-Nicholls, 7x William Armstrong, 58 Rory Barton-Grimley, 61 Megan Bela, 1 Alice Bradley, 34 Rebecca Buchholz, 4 Gengxin Chen, 41 Hong Chen, 60 Sabrina Cochrane, 57 Alvaro de la Camara, 14 Jie Feng, 42 Jeff France, 11 Natalie Freeman, 35 Ben Gaubert, 7 Joe Gradone, Leah Grant, 30 Adrianna Hackett, 10 Detlev Helmig, 0 Laura Holt, 47 Josh Howie, 51 Aleya Kaushik, 53 Jessica Kenigson, 38 Mark Leonard, 6 Yuanlong Li, 39 Leah Lindsey, 52 Daniel Liptzin, 5 Diana Loucks, 9 Christopher Maloney, 23 Laura Mazzaro, 26 Katherine McCaffrey, 32 Marie McGraw, 55 Nathaniel Miller, 15 Catrin Mills, 48 Ariel Morrison, 25 Michael Mueller, 24 Anondo Mukherjee, 20 David Munro, 40 Alexandra Naegele, 22 Arin Nelson, 36 Freja Østerstrøm, 3 Cyril Palerme, 46 Hannah Palmer, 33 Josh Pettit, 8 Paul Quelet, 29 Bryan Rainwater, 18 Louis Rivoire, 21 Sam Rossabi, 2 Warren Smith, 17 Matthew Steiner, 16 Claudia Stephan, 50 Clara St. Martin, 27 Matthew Tooth, 54 Jessica Tomaszewski, 31 Vollmer Tyler, 56 Robinson Wallace, 17 Jason West, 37 Eric Wolf, 44 Rochelle Worsnop, 28 Logan Wright, 59 Yangyang Xu, 45 Vineel Yettella, 49 Pengfei Yu, 12 Special THANKS to the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics (LASP) and Department of Physics (PHYS) for providing poster boards, the members of the ATOC Poster Conference Committee, and student volunteers: Kelly Duong Katja Friedrich Adrianna Hackett Alex Lanzano Mark Leonard Arin Nelson Joshua Pettit Cora Randall Clara St. Martin Lu Wang Jason West Sherry Yearsley 7