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Download Climate Change: Observed, Projections and Impacts in ASEAN Plus Three
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World Meteorological Organization WMO OMM Working together in weather, climate and water Climate Change: Observed, Projections and Impacts in ASEAN Plus Three Robert Stefanski Agricultural Meteorology Division Climate Prediction and Adaptation Branch Climate and Water Department WMO www.wmo.int WMO OMM Outline • Climate variability vs Climate Change • Observed Climate Change • Projections of Future Climate Change • Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture • Climate Risk Management 2 WMO OMM World Meteorological Organization • United Nations agency for weather, climate, hydrology and water resources and related environmental issues. • 189 Members from National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS) • 10 major scientific & technical programmes, • 8 Technical Commissions advise & guide activities of programmes, • 6 Regional Associations involved in implementation 3 WMO OMM Climate Variability and Change • Seasonal to interannual fluctuations are considered to be “climate variability”. • Anomalies can be expected to recur at intervals less than a decade and the long-term mean state essentially remains the same. • Decadal and longer time scale changes are considered to be part of what is widely known as “climate change”. • Climatic characteristics tend to gradually move towards a substantially different mean state. 4 WMO OMM Climate Variability • Climate variability and climate change need to be integrated into resource use and development decisions. • IPCC report much discussion of various aspects of interannual climate variability. • Decreasing the vulnerability of the different sectors such as forestry, agriculture, and energy to natural climate variability through more informed choice of policies, practices and technologies will reduce long-term vulnerability of these systems to climate change. 5 WMO OMM IPCC Fourth Assessment Report • Warming of the climate system is unequivocal. • The 100-year global trend (1906-2005) is 0.74°C. • More intense and longer droughts observed over wider areas since the 1970s, particularly in the tropics and subtropics. • Increasing trend in the extreme events observed during the last 50 years, particularly heavy precipitation events, hot days, hot nights and heat waves. 6 WMO OMM 7 WMO OMM Observed Changes in Temperature, Sea Level and Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover (IPCC WG1 AR4) 8 WMO OMM Observed Climate Changes: East Asia • China – Warming during last 50 years, more pronounced winter than summer – Annual rainfall declined past decade in North-East and North China, increase in Western China, Changjiang River and along south-east coast • Japan – About 1.0°C rise in 20th century, 2 to 3°C rise in large cities – No significant trend in the 20th century • Korea – 0.23°C rise in annual mean temp per decade, incr.in diurnal range – More frequent heavy rain in recent years Source: IPCC WG II -Table 10.2 9 WMO OMM Observed Climate Changes: South East Asia • General – 0.1 to 0.3°C increase per decade between 1951 to 2000 – Decreasing rainfall trend between 1961 and1998. Number of rainy days have declined throughout S-E Asia • Indonesia – Decline in rainfall in southern and increase in northern region • Philippines – Increase in annual, max and min temp by 0.14°C (71-2000) – Increase in annual rainfall since 1980s & number of rainy days – since 1990s, increase in inter-annual variability of onset of rainfall Source: IPCC WG II -Table 10.2 10 WMO OMM Observed Climate Change Impact: Agriculture • Production of rice, maize and wheat in the past few decades has declined in many parts of Asia due to increasing water stress (partly from increasing temperature, increasing frequency of El Niño and reduction in the number of rainy days • In a study at the International Rice Research Institute, rice yield was observed to decrease by 10% for every 1°C increase in growing-season minimum temperature (Peng et al., 2004). Source: IPCC WG II –Section 10.2.4 p475 11 WMO OMM Projections of Future Changes in Climate • Continued greenhouse gas emissions at or above current rates would – cause further warming – induce many changes in the global climate system during the 21st century • Such changes would very likely be larger than those observed during the 20th century. 12 Projections of Future Changes in Climate WMO OMM Best estimate for low scenario (B1) is 1.8°C (likely range is 1.1°C to 2.9°C), and for high scenario (A1FI) is 4.0°C (likely range is 2.4°C to 6.4°C). 13 WMO OMM Projections of Future Changes in Climate Projected warming in 21st century expected to be: – greatest over land and at most high northern latitudes; and – least over the Southern Ocean and parts of the North Atlantic Ocean 14 WMO OMM Projections of Future Changes in Climate • Precipitation increases very likely in high latitudes • Decreases likely most subtropical land regions (droughts) 15 WMO OMM Projections of Future Changes in Climate • Precipitation increases very likely in high latitudes • Decreases likely in most subtropical land regions 16 WMO OMM Projections of Future Changes in Climate • Precipitation increases very likely in high latitudes • Decreases likely in most subtropical land regions 17 WMO OMM Climate Projections - IPCC • Higher the air temperature >> more water holding capacity >> also more evaporation • Climate change projections indicate it to be very likely that hot extremes, heat waves and heavy precipitation events will continue to become more frequent. • The combination of these events can have an enormous impact on agricultural production, quality and subsequently farmer’s incomes. 18 WMO OMM Time series of global mean sea level (deviation from the 1980-1999 mean) 19 WMO OMM Future Climate Change: East Asia 2010 to 2039 Temp C 2070 to 2099 Precip % Temp C Precip % A1FI B1 A1FI B1 A1FI B1 A1FI B1 DJF 1.8 1.5 6 5 7.0 3.9 21 15 MAM 1.6 1.5 2 2 6.4 3.7 15 10 JJA 1.4 1.3 2 3 5.5 3.0 14 8 SON 1.3 1.2 0 1 5.5 3.0 11 4 A1FI - highest future emission trajectory B1 - lowest future emission trajectory Source: IPCC WG II –Table 10.5 20 WMO OMM Future Climate Change: South East Asia 2010 to 2039 Temp C 2070 to 2099 Precip % Temp C Precip % A1FI B1 A1FI B1 A1FI B1 A1FI B1 DJF 0.9 0.7 -1 1 3.9 2.0 6 4 MAM 0.9 0.8 0 0 3.8 2.0 12 5 JJA 0.8 0.7 -1 0 3.6 1.9 7 1 SON 0.9 0.8 -2 0 3.7 1.9 7 2 A1FI - highest future emission trajectory B1 - lowest future emission trajectory Source: IPCC WG II –Table 10.5 21 WMO OMM Future Climate Change • Warming is least rapid, similar to the global mean warming, in South-East Asia, stronger over South Asia and East Asia • In general, projected warming over Asia is higher during northern hemispheric winter than during summer for all time periods. • Increase in annual precipitation in most of Asia during this century; relative increase largest and most consistent between models in North and East Asia. • Mean winter precipitation will likely increase 22 WMO OMM Future Climate Change • Increase in occurrence of extreme weather events including heatwaves and intense precipitation events is projected • Increase in the interannual variability of daily precipitation in the Asian summer monsoon • Increase of 10-20% in tropical cyclone intensities for a rise in sea-surface temperature of 2 to 4°C is projected • Larger storm-surge heights resulting in an enhanced risk of coastal disasters 23 WMO OMM Global Potential Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture • Globally, the potential for food production is projected to increase with increases in local average temperature over a range of 1-3°C, but above this range, food production is projected to decrease. • At lower latitudes, especially in the seasonally dry and tropical regions, crop productivity is projected to decrease for even small local temperature increases (1-2°C), which would increase risk of hunger. • Crop productivity is projected to increase slightly at mid- to high latitudes for local mean temperature increases of up to 1-3°C depending on the crop, and then decrease beyond that in some regions. 24 WMO OMM Global Potential Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture • In general, increases in the frequency of droughts and floods are projected to affect local crop production negatively, especially in subsistence sectors at low latitudes. • With the virtually certain likelihood of warmer and more frequent hot days and nights, there are projected to be increased insect outbreaks impacting agriculture, forestry and ecosystems. • Adaptations such as altered cultivars and planting times allow low- and mid- to high-latitude cereal yields to be maintained at or above baseline yields for modest warming. 25 WMO OMM Sensitivity of cereal yield to climate change (IPCC) Orange dots – without adaptation Green dots – with adaptation 26 WMO OMM Regional Potential Climate Change Impacts • It is projected that crop yields could increase up to 20% in East and Southeast Asia while they could decrease up to 30% in Central and South Asia by the mid-21st century. • Crop modelling studies based on future climate change scenarios indicate substantial loses likely in rainfed wheat in South-East Asia • Studies suggest that a 2°C increase in mean air temperature could decrease rain-fed rice yield by 5 to 12% in China • Rain-fed crops in North & North-East China could face water-related challenges, due to increases in water demands and soil-moisture deficit associated with projected 27 decline in precipitation WMO OMM Regional Potential Climate Change Impacts II • Northward shift of agricultural zones is likely • Warmer winter temperatures would reduce winter kill, favouring the increase of insect populations. Overall temperature increases may influence crop pathogen interactions • Cool temperate grassland is projected to shift northward with climate change and the net primary productivity will decline • Studies suggest that a 2°C increase in mean air temperature could decrease rain-fed rice yield by 5 to 12% in China 28 WMO OMM Regional Potential Climate Change Impacts III • Studies suggest a reduction of primary production in the tropical oceans. Significant large-scale changes of skipjack tuna habitat in equatorial Pacific under projected warming scenario • Rising rates of sea level vary considerably from 1.5 to 4.4 mm/yr along the East Asia coast 29 Climate information gap Information gap WMO OMM The IPCC process provides useful information for the time post 2050. But there is a conspicuous information gap to support management of regional and shorter term climate risks. 25/05/2012 30 30 Global Framework for Climate Services WMO OMM • Goal: – Enable better management of the risks of climate variability and change and adaptation to climate change at all levels, through development and incorporation of science-based climate information and prediction into planning, policy and practice. WORLD CLIMATE CONFERENCE - 3 Geneva, Switzerland 31 August–4 September 2009 31 WMO OMM GFCS: Objectives • Provide a cooperative framework in which all nations, International organizations, scientists and sectors will work together to meet the needs of users; • Enable users to benefit from improved climate information and prediction; • Mobilize climate science globally to advance the skills of seasonal-to-interannual and multi-decadal climate predictions to generate and provide future climate information on an operational basis; • Cooperative global infrastructure to foster sharing new advances in science and information. 32 Climate Services Cycle WMO OMM Climate Services Information Systems Development of information and products Delivery of Products Climate User Interface Programme Capacity Building Application of Products Research, Modelling and Prediction Monitoring and Analysis Observations 33 WMO OMM 34 WMO OMM Risk Management Tools • Decision-support systems as risk management tools should be promoted as an effective means of providing output of integrated climate-agronomic information as scenario analyses • For medium and low input systems in the developing countries, crop or agro-ecosystem modeling be used to guide general decision-making on a higher institutional or farm advising level. • Current and future trends of simulation model outputs be analysed for sensitivity to climatic hazards of different agricultural systems. Possible use in crop protection methods, irrigation programs, cultivation techniques, harvesting, and storage 35 WMO OMM WMO Focus • Develop a pro-active risk-based management approach to deal with the adverse consequences of weather extremes and climate anomalies • Emphasize preparedness planning and improved early warning systems to lessen societal vulnerability to weather and climate risks. • Provide accurate, timely, consistent, and widely-available information to optimize decisions relative to the risks and uncertainties within the global agricultural production and distribution system. • Combination of locally adapted traditional farming technologies, seasonal weather forecasts and warning/forecast methods may help farmers improve productivity and incomes 36 World Meteorological Organization WMO OMM Working together in weather, climate and water Thank You World Meteorological Organization Geneva Switzerland www.wmo.int/agm WMO www.wmo.int