Download Climate Change: Observed, Projections and Impacts in ASEAN Plus Three

World Meteorological Organization
WMO OMM
Working together in weather, climate and water
Climate Change: Observed,
Projections and Impacts in
ASEAN Plus Three
Robert Stefanski
Agricultural Meteorology Division
Climate Prediction and Adaptation Branch
Climate and Water Department
WMO
www.wmo.int
WMO OMM
Outline
• Climate variability vs Climate Change
• Observed Climate Change
• Projections of Future Climate Change
• Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture
• Climate Risk Management
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World Meteorological Organization
• United Nations agency for weather, climate, hydrology and water
resources and related environmental issues.
• 189 Members from National Meteorological and Hydrological
Services (NMHS)
• 10 major scientific & technical programmes,
• 8 Technical Commissions advise & guide activities of programmes,
• 6 Regional Associations involved in implementation
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Climate Variability and Change
• Seasonal to interannual fluctuations are considered to be “climate
variability”.
• Anomalies can be expected to recur at intervals less than a decade and
the long-term mean state essentially remains the same.
• Decadal and longer time scale changes are considered to be part of
what is widely known as “climate change”.
• Climatic characteristics tend to gradually move towards a substantially
different mean state.
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Climate Variability
• Climate variability and climate change need to be
integrated into resource use and development decisions.
• IPCC report much discussion of various aspects of interannual climate variability.
• Decreasing the vulnerability of the different sectors such
as forestry, agriculture, and energy to natural climate
variability through more informed choice of policies,
practices and technologies will reduce long-term
vulnerability of these systems to climate change.
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IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
• Warming of the climate system is unequivocal.
• The 100-year global trend (1906-2005) is 0.74°C.
• More intense and longer droughts observed over
wider areas since the 1970s, particularly in the
tropics and subtropics.
• Increasing trend in the extreme events observed
during the last 50 years, particularly heavy
precipitation events, hot days, hot nights and heat
waves.
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Observed Changes
in Temperature, Sea
Level and Northern
Hemisphere Snow
Cover
(IPCC WG1 AR4)
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Observed Climate Changes: East Asia
• China
– Warming during last 50 years, more pronounced winter than summer
– Annual rainfall declined past decade in North-East and North China,
increase in Western China, Changjiang River and along south-east
coast
• Japan
– About 1.0°C rise in 20th century, 2 to 3°C rise in large cities
– No significant trend in the 20th century
• Korea
– 0.23°C rise in annual mean temp per decade, incr.in diurnal range
– More frequent heavy rain in recent years
Source: IPCC WG II -Table 10.2
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Observed Climate Changes:
South East Asia
• General
– 0.1 to 0.3°C increase per decade between 1951 to 2000
– Decreasing rainfall trend between 1961 and1998. Number of rainy
days have declined throughout S-E Asia
• Indonesia
– Decline in rainfall in southern and increase in northern region
• Philippines
– Increase in annual, max and min temp by 0.14°C (71-2000)
– Increase in annual rainfall since 1980s & number of rainy days
– since 1990s, increase in inter-annual variability of onset of rainfall
Source: IPCC WG II -Table 10.2
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Observed Climate Change Impact:
Agriculture
• Production of rice, maize and wheat in the past few decades
has declined in many parts of Asia due to increasing water
stress (partly from increasing temperature, increasing
frequency of El Niño and reduction in the number of rainy days
• In a study at the International Rice Research Institute, rice yield
was observed to decrease by 10% for every 1°C increase in
growing-season minimum temperature (Peng et al., 2004).
Source: IPCC WG II –Section 10.2.4 p475
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Projections of Future Changes in Climate
• Continued greenhouse gas emissions at or
above current rates would
– cause further warming
– induce many changes in the global climate system during
the 21st century
• Such changes would very likely be larger than
those observed during the 20th century.
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Projections of Future Changes in Climate
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Best estimate for low scenario
(B1) is 1.8°C (likely range is
1.1°C to 2.9°C), and for high
scenario (A1FI) is 4.0°C (likely
range is 2.4°C to 6.4°C).
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Projections of Future Changes in Climate
Projected warming in 21st
century expected to be:
– greatest over land and at
most high northern
latitudes; and
– least over the Southern
Ocean and parts of the
North Atlantic Ocean
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Projections of Future Changes in Climate
• Precipitation increases very likely in high latitudes
• Decreases likely most subtropical land regions (droughts)
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Projections of Future Changes in Climate
• Precipitation increases very likely in high latitudes
• Decreases likely in most subtropical land regions
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Projections of Future Changes in Climate
• Precipitation increases very likely in high latitudes
• Decreases likely in most subtropical land regions
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Climate Projections - IPCC
• Higher the air temperature >> more water holding
capacity >> also more evaporation
• Climate change projections indicate it to be very likely
that hot extremes, heat waves and heavy precipitation
events will continue to become more frequent.
• The combination of these events can have an enormous
impact on agricultural production, quality and
subsequently farmer’s incomes.
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Time series of global mean sea level
(deviation from the 1980-1999 mean)
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Future Climate Change: East Asia
2010 to 2039
Temp C
2070 to 2099
Precip %
Temp C
Precip %
A1FI
B1
A1FI
B1
A1FI
B1
A1FI
B1
DJF
1.8
1.5
6
5
7.0
3.9
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MAM
1.6
1.5
2
2
6.4
3.7
15
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JJA
1.4
1.3
2
3
5.5
3.0
14
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SON
1.3
1.2
0
1
5.5
3.0
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A1FI - highest future emission trajectory
B1 - lowest future emission trajectory
Source: IPCC WG II –Table 10.5
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Future Climate Change:
South East Asia
2010 to 2039
Temp C
2070 to 2099
Precip %
Temp C
Precip %
A1FI
B1
A1FI
B1
A1FI
B1
A1FI
B1
DJF
0.9
0.7
-1
1
3.9
2.0
6
4
MAM
0.9
0.8
0
0
3.8
2.0
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JJA
0.8
0.7
-1
0
3.6
1.9
7
1
SON
0.9
0.8
-2
0
3.7
1.9
7
2
A1FI - highest future emission trajectory
B1 - lowest future emission trajectory
Source: IPCC WG II –Table 10.5
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Future Climate Change
• Warming is least rapid, similar to the global mean warming,
in South-East Asia, stronger over South Asia and East Asia
• In general, projected warming over Asia is higher during
northern hemispheric winter than during summer for all
time periods.
• Increase in annual precipitation in most of Asia during this
century; relative increase largest and most consistent
between models in North and East Asia.
• Mean winter precipitation will likely increase
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Future Climate Change
• Increase in occurrence of extreme weather events including
heatwaves and intense precipitation events is projected
• Increase in the interannual variability of daily precipitation
in the Asian summer monsoon
• Increase of 10-20% in tropical cyclone intensities for a rise
in sea-surface temperature of 2 to 4°C is projected
• Larger storm-surge heights resulting in an enhanced risk of
coastal disasters
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Global Potential Climate
Change Impacts on Agriculture
• Globally, the potential for food production is projected to
increase with increases in local average temperature over a
range of 1-3°C, but above this range, food production is
projected to decrease.
• At lower latitudes, especially in the seasonally dry and
tropical regions, crop productivity is projected to
decrease for even small local temperature increases (1-2°C),
which would increase risk of hunger.
• Crop productivity is projected to increase slightly at mid- to
high latitudes for local mean temperature increases of up to
1-3°C depending on the crop, and then decrease beyond that
in some regions.
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Global Potential Climate
Change Impacts on Agriculture
• In general, increases in the frequency of droughts and
floods are projected to affect local crop production
negatively, especially in subsistence sectors at low latitudes.
• With the virtually certain likelihood of warmer and more
frequent hot days and nights, there are projected to be
increased insect outbreaks impacting agriculture,
forestry and ecosystems.
• Adaptations such as altered cultivars and planting times
allow low- and mid- to high-latitude cereal yields to be
maintained at or above baseline yields for modest warming.
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Sensitivity of cereal yield to
climate change (IPCC)
Orange dots – without adaptation
Green dots – with adaptation
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Regional Potential Climate
Change Impacts
• It is projected that crop yields could increase up to 20% in
East and Southeast Asia while they could decrease up to
30% in Central and South Asia by the mid-21st century.
• Crop modelling studies based on future climate change
scenarios indicate substantial loses likely in rainfed wheat
in South-East Asia
• Studies suggest that a 2°C increase in mean air
temperature could decrease rain-fed rice yield by 5 to 12%
in China
• Rain-fed crops in North & North-East China could face
water-related challenges, due to increases in water
demands and soil-moisture deficit associated with projected
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decline in precipitation
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Regional Potential Climate
Change Impacts II
• Northward shift of agricultural zones is likely
• Warmer winter temperatures would reduce winter kill, favouring
the increase of insect populations. Overall temperature increases
may influence crop pathogen interactions
• Cool temperate grassland is projected to shift northward with
climate change and the net primary productivity will decline
• Studies suggest that a 2°C increase in mean air temperature
could decrease rain-fed rice yield by 5 to 12% in China
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Regional Potential Climate
Change Impacts III
• Studies suggest a reduction of primary production in the
tropical oceans. Significant large-scale changes of skipjack tuna
habitat in equatorial Pacific under projected warming scenario
• Rising rates of sea level vary considerably from 1.5 to 4.4
mm/yr along the East Asia coast
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Climate information gap
Information gap
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The IPCC process provides useful information for the time post
2050. But there is a conspicuous information gap to support
management of regional and shorter term climate risks.
25/05/2012
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Global Framework for Climate Services
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• Goal:
– Enable better management of the risks of climate
variability and change and adaptation to climate
change at all levels, through development and
incorporation of science-based climate
information and prediction into planning,
policy and practice.
WORLD CLIMATE CONFERENCE - 3
Geneva, Switzerland
31 August–4 September 2009
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GFCS: Objectives
• Provide a cooperative framework in which all nations,
International organizations, scientists and sectors will work
together to meet the needs of users;
• Enable users to benefit from improved climate information
and prediction;
• Mobilize climate science globally to advance the skills of
seasonal-to-interannual and multi-decadal climate predictions
to generate and provide future climate information on an
operational basis;
• Cooperative global infrastructure to foster sharing new
advances in science and information.
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Climate Services Cycle
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Climate Services
Information
Systems
Development of
information and
products
Delivery of
Products
Climate User
Interface
Programme
Capacity Building
Application of
Products
Research,
Modelling and
Prediction
Monitoring and
Analysis
Observations
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Risk Management Tools
• Decision-support systems as risk management tools should be
promoted as an effective means of providing output of
integrated climate-agronomic information as scenario analyses
• For medium and low input systems in the developing countries,
crop or agro-ecosystem modeling be used to guide general
decision-making on a higher institutional or farm advising level.
• Current and future trends of simulation model outputs be
analysed for sensitivity to climatic hazards of different
agricultural systems. Possible use in crop protection methods,
irrigation programs, cultivation techniques, harvesting, and
storage
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WMO Focus
• Develop a pro-active risk-based management approach to deal
with the adverse consequences of weather extremes and climate
anomalies
• Emphasize preparedness planning and improved early warning
systems to lessen societal vulnerability to weather and climate
risks.
• Provide accurate, timely, consistent, and widely-available
information to optimize decisions relative to the risks and
uncertainties within the global agricultural production and
distribution system.
• Combination of locally adapted traditional farming technologies,
seasonal weather forecasts and warning/forecast methods may
help farmers improve productivity and incomes
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World Meteorological Organization
WMO OMM
Working together in weather, climate and water
Thank You
World Meteorological Organization
Geneva
Switzerland
www.wmo.int/agm
WMO
www.wmo.int