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INTEGRATING CLIMATE RESILIENCE AND DEVELOPMENT PLANNING Michael Mullan, Eva Hübner and Britta Labuhn The views expressed in this presentation are the sole responsibility of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect those of the OECD or the governments of its member countries. Context • This presentation provides some preliminary findings from an OECD project analysing experience to date in integrating climate resilience into development planning. • It was informed by an Expert Workshop held in April 2013 (http://oe.cd/s8) and 2 country case studies: Ethiopia and Colombia • Financial support from the UK Foreign & Commonwealth Office is gratefully acknowledged 2 Economic development can be one of the best adaptation strategies… 3 … but some development paths can lock-in reduced resilience 4 Development planning: key entry point for climate resilience 5 Ethiopia – Case Study Visible correlation between climate variability and GDP variability 7 Source: Conway and Shipper (2011) Ethiopia’s Climate Resilient Green Economy Strategy (CRGE) National Development Plan| GTP 2010-15 • Become MIC by 2025 • 11% growth • US$ 75-79 billion investments • Agriculture as main engine for growth Green Economy Strategy CRGE • Reach GTP goal in sustainable way: • Fostering growth • Zero net GHGs emissions • Climate resilience (Nov 2011) Climate Resilience Strategy (on-going) Objectives • • • identify impacts of climate variability and change identify and cost options to build resilience map steps for financing and implementation 8 Climate Resilience Strategy for Agricultural Sector • Long-list of 1000 policy options, filtered down to 41 1. Identifying options • Criteria: » relevance and feasibility » contribution to development goals (GTP) » contribution to poverty eradication » reduction of costs of climate impacts 38 of 41 options already underway 2. Appraising options 3. Costing options • Step 1: multi-attribute analysis (CBA and other criteria*) • Step 2: sequencing (focus on low- and no-regret options) • 60% of agricultural budget already supports resilience • Significant additional investment needs were identified * criteria: cost-benefit ratio, feasibility, resilience effectiveness, growth synergies, urgency 9 Initial lessons learned from Ethiopia Political leadership and vision triggered action beyond the ‘traditional’ climate community Initial focus has been on climate-proofing GTP objectives, but intention to have an integrated process from 2015 Prospect of international climate finance an important driver of the CRGE process Development support providers playing vital role through technical and financial support Key Challenges: Maintaining momentum; engaging sub-national institutions into the process; building capacities to deliver action 10 Colombia – Case study 11 GDP could be 2.5% lower in 2040 due to climate impacts on productivity Percentage loss in GDP for A1B in relation to base scenario 12 Source: SDAS-DNP, 2012: Economic Impacts of Climate Change Study But Colombia is also highly vulnerable to extreme events today 2010-11 floods: 2% of GDP 13 Sources: UN ECLAC 2012, El Tiempo 2010 Colombia is taking measures to reduce its fiscal vulnerability to disasters Level of protection Financial markets Risk transfer PublicRisk insurance transfer Private insurance Budget flexibility Risk retention WB Contingent credit National Calamities Fund 14 Initial lessons learned from Colombia Institutional links being used to strengthen climate change adaptation and development Remaining challenges with integration of disaster risk management and climate change adaptation Policy reforms have clarified and improved financial management of residual losses Scientific evidence has both supported the case for action and facilitating implementation Donors playing an important role in strengthening the evidence base Challenges: capacity at sub-national level, private sector involvement 15 EMERGING CONCLUSIONS 16 Common themes 1. Case study countries have a common vision of linking development & climate resilience; 2. Focus on current problems, with initial thinking about longer-term vulnerabilities; 3. More evidence would be needed to inform decisions about structural changes; 4. Finance & capacity remain major barriers to implementation. 17 Comments or questions? [email protected] http://oe.cd/adaptation 18