Download JPI Climate, H2020, & Climate Change Frank McGovern October 2

JPI Climate, H2020, &
Climate Change
Frank McGovern
October 2nd 2014,
Dublin
Outline of presentation
 Context for the JPI Process and H2020
 JPI Climates; objectives, structures and processes
 H2020 and JPI Climate
 EPA Actions
 Some headline issues
Context for JPI Climate
 Key issue 35% of H2020 budget climate change related research
 Research is central to actions on climate change it is exemplified by the work of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
 Expecting a new Global Agreement to address climate change next year in Paris
 Highly influence by material in the IPCC 5th Assessment Report
 EU & Global Goal to keep the global temperature increase below 2C
 Observations are also vital: Global Climate Observation System (GCOS)
 GEO/GEOSS supported by Dg Research
 DG Enterprise/Copernicus formally GMES
 A growing array of in-situ, remote, drone etc
…….we have problem!
IPCC AR5: A straightforward storyline
 Warming is unequivocal, it is essentially due to anthropogenic GHG emissions,
in particular due to CO2 from fossil fuel burning.
 The global goal is to maintain the planet within 2°C warming
 We have already emitted more than 50% of the allowable cumulative GHG
emissions for this;
 At current levels, this limit will be reached before 2050.
 Impacts are evident everywhere and will increase e.g. sea-level rise.
 Adaptation is possible, but increasing warmer increases the likelihood of severe,
pervasive and irreversible impacts.
 There are limits to adaptation, and costs grow with warming.
 Emission trends are at an all time high and are increasing.
 Mitigation trajectories are possible in order to stay below 2°C; however,
 The later emissions peak and decrease the higher the costs will be,
 We have a choice, and still a small window of opportunity to act.
The JPI Climate process
JPI Climate is a collaboration between 14 European countries including Ireland, to
coordinate climate change research and fund new transnational research initiatives.
Goal: To significantly contribute to underpinning the European efforts to respond to
climate change
Its generic aims are
 to overcome research fragmentation,
 to make better use of public R&D resources and
 to facilitate research collaboration between top scientists.
 to connect scientific disciplines and increases science-practice
interaction
Website: http://www.jpi-climate.eu/home
JPI Climate: Specific areas and structure
JPI Climate has an agreed Strategic Research Agenda (SRA) its implementation is
built upon four modules/themes
1: Moving towards Reliable Decadal Climate Predictions
2: Research supporting Climate Service Development and Deployment
3: Sustainable Transformations of Society in the Face of Climate Change
4: Improving Tools for Decision-Making under Climate Change
It aims to promotes an interdisciplinary approach in connecting natural‐ with
socio‐economic sciences
It is guided, coordinated and managed through a flexible collaborative governance
mechanism.
1. Decadal Climate Predictions
Objective: to provide enhanced climate information and climate prediction
capacities with a shorter term focus.
 Climate prediction has been focused on mid and end of century projections.
 A substantial development of climate models is needed based on improved understanding
of processes and more advanced observation systems.
 This requires a long-term strategy for observations, experimental studies and modelling at
various spatial and temporal scales.
 Provision of short time scale projections i.e. seasonal to decadal is a key challenge which
match a range of planning and investment decision scales.
 However, achievability of this is an open question!
1. Decadal Climate Predictions
The goal is reliable climate information from decadal to centennial scale
Key issues include
• Natural internal variability of the climate system.
• Extreme events and abrupt changes
• Ongoing and long term systems changes
• Key processes and dealing with uncertainties.
Aims include

to improve observations, understanding and modelling of key processes/mechanisms

to promote and develop a European climate modelling collaboration

to develop a European collaboration environment for long-term monitoring and analysis
of the Earth system
2. Climate Service (CS) Development and
Deployment
The aim is to meet demands across Europe for CS through
• Research into the development and deployment of CS and
• By establishing a network of CS providers, who can exchange knowledge and
share learning.
Goals are
•
To enhance the efficiency of the set up and deployment of Climate Services in the
individual European countries
•
To improve consistency in the methods/approaches used by the Climate Services in
the individual European countries
•
To optimize the quality of Climate Services
•
To avoid duplication in the development of tools/methods
•
To improve the communication of climate knowledge to end-users and experts using
data for impact research and applied research
Climate Service (CS) Development and
Deployment
Areas of priority joint research are the following:
•
Development and deployment of CS improving data accessibility, quality control
•
Communication of climate knowledge to end-users; this involves
•
•
Understanding user-needs,
•
identifying “climate sensitivities” associated with decision making
•
Development of tools/methods to communicate climate information
Improving the interface between climate research and its application
•
•
improving the interface between climate and climate impacts research,
improving the interface between research and CS providers
In order to avoid duplication of efforts, enable the development of a “European
Network of Climate Service" (ENCS).
3. Sustainable Transformations of Society
Basis: Knowledge of the causes and consequences of climate change is not matched by
an equivalent understanding of the societal challenges it poses.
It encompasses the societal transformations necessary
•
To confront climate change
•
To develop sustainable and equitable production patterns and lifestyles,
•
While maintaining and raising the quality of life within Europe and globally.
The multiple interrelations between societal responses to climate change, as well as other
societal and environmental mega-trends requires that,
•
Interdisciplinary research on sustainable transformations of society
The normative underpinnings of the need for sustainable transformations, understanding,
developing and implementing social and economic responses to climate change requires
•
Trans-disciplinary research and action.
3 Sustainable Transformations of Society
Key objectives:
To initiate interdisciplinary research to enhance the understanding of the social context
(e.g. politics, economics, society, culture) of mitigation and adaptation responses to climate
change in Europe
Stimulating research on societal barriers and incentives to respond to climate change
Enabling integrated analyses of international, national and regional response strategies to
socio-ecological and socio-economic limits and opportunities of mitigation and adaptation.
Developing and implementing integrated socio-ecological evaluation criteria for
sustainable transformation scenarios and processes.
Supporting an integrated view on the societal impacts of climate change, also in relation
to other global change trends.
Developing governance strategies, involving governments, businesses and NGOs, for
sustainable societal transformations on the regional and (supra)national levels.
Facilitating transdisciplinary exchange on objective of sustainable societal transformations
towards 'carbon neutral', adaptive and climate-proof European societies
4 Improving Tools for Decision-Making
Key issues
Advanced assessment models and scenarios are essentials tools and metrics for provision of both
mitigation and adaptation analyses.
Scenarios and scenario‐based tools have demonstrated their utility for multi‐layered analysis of
connections between temporally and spatially distant developments and phenomena and are tools
for communication between and within the scientific and policy communities.
They are also learning tools and support planning processes to explore alternatives or the long‐term
and cross‐scale consequences of certain developments or strategic decisions.
Decision‐making tools can help make 'robust' decisions based on a better understanding of risks
and uncertainties, trade‐offs and feedbacks as well as opportunities and interdependencies.
.
4. Improving Tools for Decision-Making
Overall aim ; to develop a consistent climate and socio-economic scenarios and scenariobased decision support systems that reflect the global forces that shape regional and local
processes and vice versa.
Objectives include:
Categorizing and communicating risks and uncertainties: Understanding user needs in
terms of potential climate related risks and uncertainties and establishing an effective
communication processes between the scenario communities and stakeholders.
Integrating global climate change analysis and assessment: Support development of robust
and inclusive global scenarios that are consistent with global assessments of climate change.
Nesting scenarios at different levels: Development of nested models/ scenarios to increase
linkages between top down scenario analysis to bottom up emissions analyses, and provide
independent scientific verification of analysis of emissions and sinks.
Linking scenarios and decision tools: Foster iterative dialogue between science and practice
and provide decision support tools and instruments that are nested in a consistent scenario
environment from global to local scales.
JPI Climate 1st Call: 2013
Two topics
-> Topic 1 : Societal Transformation in the Face of Climate Change
-> Topic 2 : Russian Arctic & Boreal Systems
Ireland participated in Topic 2:
Major response circa 100 proposals: two stage evaluation process.
Sustainable Transformations of Society
One successful participant; Dr Conor Murphy; NUIM
Austrian led Project looking at societal and institutional responses related to impacts and adaptation
to flooding.
The award is on a “Juste Retour” basis i.e. Ireland will fund the Irish research activity
Societal Challenge 5 (SC5): Climate
action, environment, resource efficiency
and raw materials
Fighting and adapting to climate change - WP 2015 of SC5
In 2015 the main action will be
• The establishment of a very large and ambitious ERANET in support of
the Climate JPI actions on climate services,
• Designed to complement to other actions launched at EU level in 2014
and that will follow in the years 2016-17.
• This will be accompanied by a coordination action on modelling and
climate services.
Research and innovation action will also
• Tackle the issue of air quality in cities, bridging the human health and
climate change needs, and contributing to increasing the compliance to the
EU air quality legislation
Societal Challenge 5 (SC5): Climate
action, environment, resource efficiency
and raw materials
ACTION /
EVALUATION
TYPE
BUDGET
2015
(€MIO)
ERA-NET
1-stage
25
Climate Services for Europe and globally:
SC5-4. Improving the air quality and reducing the carbon
footprint of European cities
R&I ACTION
2-stage
15
SC5-5. Coordinating and supporting R&I for climate action
a) Earth system modelling and climate services
CSA
1-stage
(*)
TOPICS
SC5 CALL: Growing a Low Carbon, Resource Efficient
Economy with a Sustainable Supply of Raw Materials
SC5-2. ERA for Climate Services
(*) part of a larger budget envelope; the budget for each action is not
specified
Societal Challenge 5 (SC5): Climate
action, environment, resource efficiency
and raw materials
TOPICS
ACTION /
EVALUATION
TYPE
BUDGET
2015
(€MIO)
Innovation
Action
15
FOCUS AREA: DISASTER-RESILIENCE
DRS-9-2015 Disaster Resilience & Climate Change
topic 1: Science and innovation for adaptation to
climate change: from assessing costs, risks and
opportunities to demonstration of options and
practices.
Innovation Actions [2015]
1-stage
Societal Challenge 5 (SC5): Climate
action, environment, resource efficiency
and raw materials
TOPICS
ACTION /
EVALUATION
TYPE
BUDGET
2015
(€MIO)
R&I ACTION
2-stage
15
Call WATER INNOVATION Boosting its value for
Europe
WATER 2.
Integrated approaches to water and climate change
b) Integrated approaches to food security, low-carbon
energy, sustainable water management and climate
change mitigation
Possible next steps
Climate service development:
•
Develop the market for climate services in support to adaptation and
mitigation decisions, multiplicity of users, from governments to
business.
Decarbonisation:
•
A cost effective 2°C trajectory, policies and technologies and their
benefits/consequences for societies, economies and ecosystems
Large scale impacts
•
Large scale impacts e.g. loss of Ice sheets, changes to MOC/Gulf
stream
EPA Contributions and Support
Vision: GHG neutral and climate resilient Ireland by 2050
Goal: Ireland a centre for key research and analysis based on location, scale
and geography
Climate services:
•
Capacity development in research community
•
Engagement with JPI Climate
•
National co-ordination
Decarbonisation:
•
Advancing energy modelling (with SEAI) IrishTime (European model)
•
Land use analysis: observations and systems models (ICOS)
•
Technologies analysis (Climate KIC)
Support: Identify expertise to support projects in meeting 35% for climate
Ireland Climate services ecosystem
M/I
EPA
/
M/E
other
Ireland Climate
Information Platform (ICIP)
Impact s models
OPW
Risk and vulnerability analysis
Ocean
High end
Local
Authorities+
Hydrology
comp
Research
Models
groups
Coastal/Marine
Sectors
Agriculture and land
Business
Biodiversity and ecosystems
NGOs
Variability and extremes
Public
Big data /high end
computing
National Funding
EPA,OPW, Dept of Agriculture, SFI
H2020
JPI climate
Need to urgently reverse the current CO2
trend
And resolve the methane challenge
http://www.jpi-climate.eu/home
for further information email:
[email protected]
Thank you