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The physical impacts of climate change Professor Nigel Arnell University of Reading Funded by Outline of presentation Impacts in the AVOID programme Overview of assessment methodology Early results: global and regional scales Conclusions and implications Impacts in the AVOID programme What (and where) are the “dangerous” impacts that we need to avoid? What impacts are avoided by specific climate mitigation objectives? How does adaptation affect the impacts under different mitigation objectives? Overview of methodology “Level 1” Combine ‘damage functions’ with estimates of global temperature change Overview of methodology “Level 2” Run spatial impacts models with spatial climate scenarios Illustrative temperature trajectories Example impact indicators Exposure to change in water resources stress Population in watersheds with <1000 m3/capita/year with a significant change in runoff Average annual number of people flooded People affected by river floods greater than baseline 30-year flood Change in suitability of cropland for farming Change in crop suitability indicator Change in cooling energy requirements Residential cooling energy requirements Global impacts in 2050: A1b HadGEM Global impacts in 2100: A1b HadGEM Global impacts in 2100: 2o world HadGEM Change over time Change over time Regional impacts in 2050: A1b HadGEM Regional impacts in 2100: A1b HadGEM Regional impacts in 2100: 2o world HadGEM Summary Impacts at the global scale estimated using generalised impacts models Assessments give broad indications of magnitude and locations of impact Achieving a 2oC pathway reduces and delays the impacts of climate change – but the effect varies between sectors and places