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Predictions, vulnerability and impacts
of climate change on agriculture: Which
referential(s) for the region?
A. Jalloh, M. D. Faye, H. Roy-Macauley, P. Sereme, R. Zougmore, G. C. Nelson, T. S.
Thomas, K. Ahossane, P.B. Irenikatche Akponikpe, S. Conde, A. Danguioua, S.
Hassan, C.E. Ikuenobe, R.G. Johnson, M. Kandeh, B. S. Karmorh, M. Khouma, A. E.
Lawin, D. M. d’Croz, D. K. Nutsukpo, A. Palazzo, R. Robertson, L. Some, A.
Tchinguilou, H. Yaye
Presentation at the High Level Forum of ClimateSmart Agriculture (CSA) Stakeholders in West Africa
June 15 – 18, 2015, Bamako, Mali
Introduction – 5th Assessment Report
• A very likely decrease in average annual
rainfall has occurred in some parts of
western Africa, with an observed drop in
average annual rainfall of approximately
25–50 mm each decade from 1951–2010
• Climate change has already led to changes
in freshwater and marine ecosystems in
eastern and southern Africa, and terrestrial
ecosystems in southern and western Africa
• Regardless of future emissions, we are
already committed to further warming,
largely due to past emissions and inertia in
the climate system
Predictions: 5th Assessment Report
• If global society continues to emit greenhouse
gases at current rates, the average global
temperature could rise by 2.6–4.8°C by 2100
• Under a low-emissions scenario, average
temperature rises across Africa are projected to be
less than 2°C over the course of the century
• There will be a likely increase in the frequency of
hot days across the Sahara and parts of west, east
and southern Africa.
• Global mean sea level will continue to rise during
the 21st century under all emissions scenarios, by a
magnitude that poses significant risks for Africa’s
coastal settlements, cultures and ecosystems and
Key Risks
• Sporadic variability in onset of rains and abrupt end in
rainy season
• Compounded stress (overexploitation and degradation)
on water resources - increased demand in the future
with drought stress exacerbated in drought prone
regions of Africa
• Reduced crop productivity associated with heat and
drought stress
• increased pest and disease damage
• Changes in the incidence and geographic range of
vector and water-borne diseases
• Sea level rice and flood impacts on coastal settlements
and food system infrastructure
Changes in yields (percent), 2010–2050, from the DSSAT crop
model: CSIRO A1B
Climate change is very likely
to have an overall negative
effect on yields of major
cereal crops across Africa,
though with strong regional
variability in the degree of
Estimated yield losses at midcentury range from 18% for
southern Africa to 22%
aggregated across West Africa:
Maize – 13.9%; Groundnut – 5.5
%; Sorghum - 6.8%
of the future
•A significant increase in the
population of all countries except Cape
Verde – pessimistic: population of all
countries will more than double except
Cape Verde
• Income per capita in the optimistic
scenario could range from US$ 1,594
for Liberia to US$ 6,265 for Cote
d’Ivoire. Income per capita does not
improve significantly in the pessimistic
Climate-Smart Agriculture
Farmers, pastoralists and
fisher folks may have to
contend with new
farming cultures
including land tenure and
changing food habits
It is agriculture that sustainably increases productivity,
resilience (adaptation), reduces/removes greenhouse gases
(mitigation), and enhances achievement of national food
security and development goals.
(FAO 2010)
• Available and accessible weather data –
• Capacity building in climate science and need for
targeted research for climate smart technologies.
• Harmonized use of rivers for irrigation and
• Conservation of natural resources, particularly
forests, and the development of parks.
• Sustained economic integration (common
currency and trade policies)
• Reliable trunk and feeder roads for free
movement of goods and people throughout the
• Effective linkage and dialogue between
researchers and policy makers - AfricaInteract