Download Colloquium on Environmental Aspects of Aviation

Aviation and the Kyoto Protocol
ICAO
Colloquium on Environmental Aspects of Aviation
April 2001, Montreal, Canada
Christine Zumkeller
UNFCCC secretariat
April 2001
Content
1. The science of climate change
2. Introduction to UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol
3. Aviation within the UNFCCC and the Kyoto
Protocol
4. Open issues under the Kyoto Protocol
April 2001
Global temperatures
IPCC
Source: IPCC
April 2001
Pattern of changing temperatures
90° N
45° N
0°
45° S
90° S
180 °
90° W
0°
90° E
180°
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
–1
–0.5
0
0.5
°C
1
1.5
2
The pattern of changing temperatures, between the present day and the turn of the century, across the surface of the earth as
observed
April 2001
Concerns
•
global temperatures have risen by 0.6 °C
since industrialization
•
global temperatures will rise by 1.4 - 5.8 °C (estimated)
by 2100 -- land areas heat more rapidly
•
sea level up by 9-88 cm (estimated)
by 2100 -- will rise for further 1000 years
•
more energy in the system

more severe weather events, storms, etc.
April 2001
Expected Impacts
• Ecosystems may change dramatically
( flooding and damage to low lying areas )
impacting on human & animal health, and welfare
• Impacts on developing countries
expected to be particularly severe
April 2001
Radiative forcing
Source: IPCC
April 2001
IPCC report on aviation

Emissions of CO2 from aviation:
0.14 Gt C/year - 2% of global anthropogenic CO2
and growing (to 3 % in 2050)

Radiative forcing of aviation
CO2, ozone, methane, water vapor, contrails, aerosols, not cirrus clouds
- 1992: 3.5% of all anthropogenic forcing in 1992
- 2050: 2.6 to 11 times the 1992 value
Source: IPCC report on aviation and the global atmosphere
April 2001
Content
1. The science of climate change
2. Introduction to UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol
3. Aviation within the UNFCCC and the Kyoto
Protocol
4. Open issues under the Kyoto Protocol
April 2001
Time Table
1992
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC) adopted (Rio)
1994
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC) entered into force
1995
First Conference of the Parties (COP1, Berlin)
1997
Third Conference of the Parties (COP3, Kyoto)
Kyoto Protocol adopted
2000
Sixth Conference of the Parties (COP6, The Hague)
2001
Sixth Conference of the Parties resumed (COP6 part II, Bonn)
~2002 ?
Kyoto Protocol may enter into force
April 2001
Climate Change Convention
Objective:
“Stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the
atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous
anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such
a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to
allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to
ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable
economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.”
April 2001
Climate Change Convention
Principles:
“… on the basis of equity and in accordance with their
common but differentiated responsibilities and respective
capabilities. Accordingly, the developed country Parties
should take the lead in combating climate change and the
adverse effects thereof.”
“The Parties should take precautionary measures ... Where
there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of
full scientific certainty should not be used as a reason for
postponing such measures…”
April 2001
Kyoto Protocol
• Developed countries to decrease emissions 2008-2012
compared to 1990
All developed countries: -5%
USA: -7%
EU: -8%
Japan: -6%
Russian Federation: 0%
• Includes CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, SF6
• Afforestation, reforestation, deforestation and other land-use
activities may count
• Mechanisms (joint implementation, emissions trading, clean
development mechanism)
April 2001
Content
1. The science of climate change
2. Introduction to UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol
3. Aviation within the UNFCCC and the Kyoto
Protocol
4. Open issues under the Kyoto Protocol
April 2001
International aviation emissions
UNFCCC
Decision 9/2 (INC, 1994):
“In providing information on emissions from international
aviation and marine bunker fuels, Parties should include
such data, in a separate category, in their inventories of
emissions on the basis of fuel sold and should, as far as
possible, not include them in total national emissions”
Decision 4/CP.1 (1995)
“… address the issue of the allocation and control of
emissions from international bunker fuels, and report on this
work to the Conference of the Parties at its second session”
April 2001
International aviation emissions
Kyoto Protocol
Decision 2/CP.3: “...emissions based upon fuel sold to
ships or aircraft engaged in international transport
should not be included in national totals, but reported
separately…”
 International aviation emissions are
not part of the quantitative target
“…urges the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and
Technological Advice to further elaborate on the
inclusion of these emissions in the overall greenhouse
gas inventories of Parties...”
April 2001
International aviation emissions
Kyoto Protocol
Article 2.2 of the Kyoto Protocol:
“Annex I Parties shall pursue limitation or
reduction of emissions of greenhouse gases
from aviation and marine bunker fuels,
working through the International Civil
Aviation Organization (ICAO) and the
International Maritime Organization (IMO),
respectively.“
April 2001
Emissions
domestic
international
Developed countries
Developing countries
Aviation
April 2001
International aviation emissions
Since Kyoto
• Invited ICAO and IMO to inform of their work plans relating to
emissions based on fuel sold to ships or aircraft engaged in
international transport and to provide regular progress reports
• Requested to continue to develop the cooperation with ICAO
and IMO and encouraged the participation of representatives
of the UNFCCC process in relevant meetings of ICAO and IMO
• Encouraged ICAO and IMO to complete their work on this
matter as soon as possible
• Noted the importance of coordination by Parties at the
national level
April 2001
Content
1. The science of climate change
2. Introduction to UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol
3. Aviation within the UNFCCC and the Kyoto
Protocol
4. Open issues under the Kyoto Protocol
April 2001
Issues
at COP6 (November 2000)
• Support for developing countries
• Mechanisms (joint implementation, emissions trading,
clean development mechanism)
• The use of land-use, land-use change and forestry to
meet targets
• Rules related to non-compliance with the target
April 2001
Kyoto Protocol
Mechanisms:
• Joint Implementation of projects between developed
countries
• Emissions trading between developed countries
• Clean development mechanism
- Joint projects in developing countries for SD !
- Financed by developed countries, which can use
emissions reductions to meet their commitments
- Possibly unilateral
April 2001
Emissions trading
Party A
Transaction
Party B
• Parties receive assigned amount
• Parties are responsible for compliance
April 2001
Emissions trading
One option
Party A
Transaction
Entity C
Entity B
Transactions ?
Entity A
Party B
Entity F
Entity E
Entity D
April 2001
Mechanisms
• To what extent can the mechanisms be used to reach
targets?
• What use can be made of units acquired through one
of the mechanisms?
• Should there be a fee on all mechanisms to fund
adaptation?
e
April 2001
Mechanisms
• How could one prevent that more units of assigned
amount were transferred than were available for
transfer (“overselling”) ?
• Which projects can be implemented in developing
countries (CDM)?
es
- Nuclear? Forestry?
April 2001
Land-use and forestry
• What is a “forest”, “deforestation”, “afforestation”?
• Which and how much of those activities may be used?
April 2001
Non-compliance
• What if the target is not reached?
April 2001
Example
Projection without
measures:
+ 20%
Trading
Joint implementation
Emissions
Projects in developing
countries (CDM)
Forests and land-use
Other domestic efforts
Target: -8%
1990
2010
April 2001
Next steps
• Official outcome of COP 6:
- Meeting suspended
- Forward texts to next session
- Explore possibilities to resume COP6 in
the first half of 2001
• COP6 will resume 16 to 27 July 2001,
Bonn, Germany
April 2001
More information
www.unfccc.int
Christine Zumkeller
[email protected]
April 2001