Developing Climate Services for the Pacific Northwest: the Role of Education, Outreach and Partnerships JISAO Center for Science in the Earth System Climate Impacts Group and Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington March, 2004 Alan F. Hamlet and the Climate Impacts Group Martyn Clark (UC Boulder, CIRES) People in the Climate Impacts Group PI: Edward L. Miles (human dimensions) Principals: Robert Francis (aquatic ecosystems) Dennis P. Lettenmaier (hydrology and water resources) Nathan Mantua (climate dynamics) Philip W. Mote (state climatologist) Lara Whitely Binder (education and outreach) Richard Palmer (water resources management) David L. Peterson (forests) Amy K. Snover (integration and synthesis) Climate Impact Science The study of how climate, natural resources, and human socio-economic systems affect each other climate CLIMATE IMPACTS SCIENCE socioeconomic systems natural resources Identify Global/Regional Climate Drivers Pacific Decadal Oscillation El Niño Southern Oscillation A history of the PDO A history of ENSO warm warm cool 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Assemble and Analyze Observational Data Sets Annual Flow at The Dalles 1858-1998 600000 5 events 500000 2 events 400000 300000 200000 100000 2000 1990 1980 1970 1960 1950 1940 1930 1920 1910 1900 1890 1880 1870 1860 1850 0 Identify Broad-Based Functional Relationships Between Climate Forecasts and Natural Resources 450000 Cool Cool Warm Warm 350000 300000 250000 200000 2000 1990 1980 1970 1960 1950 1940 1930 1920 1910 150000 1900 Apr-Sept Flow (cfs) 400000 Log10 mean flow, The Dalles, OR (cfs) Extend Data Sets to Paleoclimatic Time Scales 5.5 red = observed, blue = reconstructed 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.0 1750 1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 Year 1900 1925 1950 1975 Source: Gedalof, Z., D.L. Peterson and Nathan J. Mantua. (in review). Columbia River Flow and Drought Since 1750. Submitted to Journal of the American Water Resources Association. 2000 Construct Models and Analytical Tools VIC Hydrology Model ColSim Reservoir Model Construct Forecasting Systems Ensemble Streamflow Forecast ENSO Climate Forecast PDO Run Initialized Hydrologic Model Select Temperature and Precipitation Data from Historic Record Associated with Forecast Climate Category Project Impacts Forwards in Time VIC Simulations of April 1 Average Snow Water Equivalent for Composite Scenarios (average of four GCM scenarios) Current Climate 2020s Snow Water Equivalent (mm) 2040s Assess Forecast Skill, Error, Value Oct Dec Nov Jan ESP Make Data Available to Users http://www.ce.washington.edu/~hamleaf/climate_change_streamflows/CR_cc.htm Role of Education, Outreach, Partnerships 1995 Many people in the climate prediction and applications communities subscribed to a “Field of Dreams” model: “We will build it, they will come!” 1995-1996 Results from CIG Human Dimensions Research: 1) Stakeholders were generally unaware of existing climate forecasting products and services. 2) Those products and services they were aware of they did not use. Conclusion: “Field of Dreams” Model Likely to Fail: Another Approach was Essential Education CIG Outreach Partnerships Stakeholders Strategies • Continual networking to identify partnerships • Workshops & surveys provide means for initial contact • Capitalize on climate events • Long-term commitment CIG Annual Water Workshops http://jisao.washington.edu/PNWimpacts/Workshops/Kelso2003/index.htm Progress Resulting from Education and Outreach from the CIG to the PNW Water Management Community Familiarity with terminology and concepts associated with interpreting climate forecasts Understanding of the fundamental relationships between climate variability and natural resources such as snowpack, streamflow, and associated risks of droughts and floods. Understanding of risks and uncertainties associated with regional impacts of global warming. Understanding of forecasting techniques incorporating climate forecasts and information Understanding opportunities for water management applications Progress Resulting from Education and Outreach from the Water Management Community to the CIG Understanding of the spatial and temporal scales at which climate information and resource forecasts must be provided to be useful. Understanding that climate and resource forecasts must function within a larger framework of management concerns. Importance and role of institutional characteristics in the process of bringing forecast innovations to bear on actual resource management problems. “Give us the raw data.” [transparent process] Official products from authorized sources. From Scientific Research to Operational Climate Service Applications for Water Management Track 1 Climate Forecasting Systems New Idea: Climate is Predictable Track 2 Hydrologic Forecasting Systems and Water Management Applications Track 3 Education and Outreach Track 4 Technology Transfer and Operational Design Characteristics of “Early Adopters” of Climate Forecasts Seattle Public Utilities (CIG) [S/I forecasts, climate change] Portland Water Bureau (CIG) [climate change] •Strong incentives for effective management (particularly Seattle) •Small, centralized management agencies (autonomy) •Ability to make changes in management decision processes without incurring high costs •Willingness on the part of leadership to invest in innovations Characteristics of “Early Adopters” of Climate Forecasts Seattle City Light (3-Tier) [S/I forecasts] Bonneville Power Administration (CIG) [S/I forecasts] •Strong incentives for improved management (very large economic benefits) •Relatively sophisticated capacity to incorporate probabilistic information, quantify risks, and manage outcomes successfully •Seattle City Light is much farther ahead in terms of having access to state of the art decision support tools •BPA has been constrained by outdated decision support tools, the size and complexity of the federal bureaucracy, and more complicated system constraints. Some Examples of Successful Stakeholder Partnerships Outside the PNW •South Florida Water Management District [S/I forecasts] •IRI Partnerships [S/I forecasts] •CLIMAS Climate Outlook [S/I forecasts] •SE Climate Consortium •Colorado River Forecast Center (CDC, UC, CIRES) [S/I forecasts] Elements of a Successful Research-Operations Partnership 1) Successful identification of important problems on which researchers and operational personnel can work collaboratively. 2) The Right People in the Right Places • Upper level people in the academic and operational communities willing to take the leadership role and to allocate resources to collaborative projects. • Individuals within the research community with appropriate technical skills AND experience in finding creative solutions to operational problems in a collaborative manner. • Individuals within the operational agency with appropriate experience and technical skills who have authority and responsibility for testing and implementing research innovations in operational systems. 3) Strong institutional incentives in both the research and operational communities for sustained collaboration. 4) “Have fun at the pub.” Personal relationships and relationship building between the research and operational communities over time are critical for the success of the partnership. Conclusions: Human dimensions research on the capacity of existing agencies and water managers to use climate forecasts identified important research needs and fundamentally altered the CIG’s strategy for education and outreach in the PNW. Partnerships between RISAs, regional stakeholders and operational agencies has been a very productive approach to creating linkages between academia and management agencies, and in the process of developing and refining pilot climate forecast applications. Ability to transfer forecasting technology from academia to stakeholders and forecasting agencies remains a significant barrier to the use of advanced forecasting systems in an operational context. Inter RISA partnerships may play an important role in solving these kinds of problems.