Download noaa climate program

NOAA CLIMATE
Understanding climate variability and change to enhance society’s ability to plan
and respond
Climate Working Group Briefing
Wednesday 29 March 2006
NOAA Climate Program Office
Chet Koblinsky
Director, NOAA Climate Program Office
1
1
Outline
 Overview of Meeting and Agenda




Response to March 2005 mtg recommendations
NOAA Climate program overview
Congressional and EOP update
Budget Discussion
 FY05 Highlights
 FY06 Enacted
 FY07 Request
 FY08 Priorities
 FY09 Directions




NOAA/NASA Research and Operations Transition
CCSP Update
NOAA Climate in the community
Climate Working Group Issues
 2006 Meeting schedule
 Membership
2
2
Meeting purpose and Agenda
 Purpose: Program review and priorities
 Agenda - Wednesday
7:30-8:00
8:00-10: 00
10:00-10:30
10:30-10:45
10:45-12:00
Continental Breakfast
Executive Session (Closed)
Break
Welcome and Introductions
Overview
Mark Abbott, Otis Brown
Chet Koblinsky
12:00-1:00
Lunch
Carl Burleson, FAA
Climate Program Status and Review
1:00-3:00
Observations and Analysis Program Tom Karl, lead
3:00-3:30
Break
3:30-5:30
Observations and Analysis Program (continued)
5:30
Adjourn
CWG Dinner with Director
3
3
Meeting Agenda (cont.)
 Purpose: Program review and priorities
 Agenda - Thursday
7:30-8:00
8:00- 10:00
10:00-10:30
10:30-11:30
11:30-12:30
Continental Breakfast
Climate Forcing Program
A.R. Ravishankara, lead
Break
Climate Forcing Program (continued)
Climate Predictions and Projections Ants Leetmaa, lead
12:30-1:30
Lunch
1:30-3:30
3:30-4:00
4:00-5:00
5:00
Climate Predictions and Projections (continued)
Break
Climate and Ecosystems
Kenric Osgood, lead
Adjourn
7:00
Reception for retiring NOAA Dep. Admin. James R. Mahoney
National Press Club
4
4
Meeting Agenda (cont.)
 Purpose: Program review and priorities
 Agenda - Friday
7:30-8:00
8:00-10:00
10:00-10:30
10:30-11:30
Continental Breakfast
Regional Decision Support
Jim Laver, lead
Break
Regional Decision Support (continued)
Additional Topics and Wrap-up
11:30-12:00
Summary
Chet Koblinsky
12:00-2:00
Working Lunch: Executive Session (Closed)
2:00
Adjourn
5
5
Response to March 2005
CWG Recommendations
6
6
Response to Recommendations
 A relevant question was whether or not there would be changes
at OMB in response to changes in Congress? No.
Those areas that are still in need of further attention include:
• Decision support: water resource and major ecosystem
restoration. Not a lot of progress, California RISA activity is
still the main link via its CalFed work. Decision support research
feedback to guide NOAA R+D decisions. Will be revisited in at
Summer Retreat.
• Atmospheric composition: Lack of connectivity between this
element and modeling strategy across the whole of the program.
Still remains an area of concern. Need to evaluate this Session
NACP: Lack of integration in the observing and analysis plans
remains a concern. Need to evaluate this Session
7
7
Response to Recommendations
 The discussion that followed Koblinsky’s presentation focused
on the overall strategy for the climate program office in the
context of the overall vision vis a vis implementation.
 The overall strategy for promoting new priorities at the
expense of established successful programs was questioned.
 Is the present approach undermining the base?
 This all depends on whether or not the future requested increases
are actually realized.
 Recent history and the present Federal deficit would suggest that
the requested increases will be hard to come by and that more offsets
may be anticipated.
 If this comes to pass, the strategy for new initiatives needs much
more careful attention.
 Otherwise, the implications of this would be that growth in decision
support would come from predictions and projections.
 This led to a discussion as to whether or not the way to increase the
budget is via better links to decision support and better links to
constituents.
8
8
Climate Program Overview
9
9
NOAA Goals
• Protect, restore, and manage the use of
coastal and ocean resources through an
ecosystem approach to management
• Understand climate variability and change
to enhance society’s ability to plan and
respond
• Serve society’s needs for weather and
water information
• Support the nation’s commerce with
information for safe, efficient, and
environmentally sound transportation
• Provide critical support for NOAA’s
mission
10
10
NOAA Climate Goal
Understand Climate Variability and Change to
Enhance Society’s Ability to Plan and Respond
PROGRAMS
OUTCOMES
•
A predictive understanding of the global climate
system on time scales of weeks to decades with
quantified uncertainties sufficient for making
informed and reasoned decisions
•
Climate-sensitive sectors and the climate-literate
public effectively incorporating NOAA’s climate
products into their plans and decisions
Observations &
Analysis
Climate
Forcing
Predictions &
Projections
Climate &
Ecosystems
Regional
Decision Support
11
11
Program Structure
Program Charter
 Executive Summary
 Program Requirements
 Requirement Drivers
 Legislation
 Executive/NOAA Directives
 International agreements)
 Mission Requirements
 Links to NOAA Strategic Plan
 Goal outcomes
 Goal performance objectives
 Goal strategies
 Program Outcomes
 Program Roles and Responsibilities
 Participating Line Office, staff office and council responsibilities
 External Agency/Organization Responsibilities (International Partners)
 End User or Beneficiaries of the Program
12
12
Climate Goal
Directives driving the course and priorities of the
NOAA Climate Goal
INTERNATIONAL
AGREEMENTS
US EXECUTIVE
BRANCH
US LEGISLATION
INTERAGENCY
AGREEMENTS
Bi-lateral agreements
Climate Change Science
Program Strategic Plan
(CCSP) 2003
US Global Change
Research Act
National Integrated
Drought Information
System (NIDIS)
Global Climate Observing
System (GCOS)
Global Earth Observation
System of Systems
(GEOSS)
Global Ocean Observing
System (GOOS)
Montreal Protocol
WMO Global Atmospheric
Watch
UN Framework Convention
for Climate Change
(UNFCCC)
Magnuson-Stevens
Fisheries Act
Strategic Plan for the US
Integrated Earth
Observing System
Weather Service Organic
Act
US Ocean Action Plan
Coastal Zone Management
Act
National Climate Program
Act of 1978
North American Carbon
Plan (NACP)
Integrated Ocean
Observing System (IOOS)
Integrated Earth
Observation System (IEOS)
Clean Air Act of 1990
Global Climate Protection
Act
Oceans Act 2000 PL (106256)
13
13
NOAA Climate Programs
vs. NOAA Line Offices
OAR
NESDIS
Observations and
Analysis
Ocean observations,
reanalysis, dataset
improvements
Climate Reference
Network, Data
Management, GCOS
Climate Forcing
Greenhouse gas observing
system, extramural carbon
cycle research, aerosol and
ozone process research
Climate Predictions
and Projections
Intraseasonal forecasting skill,
decadal and long-term
projections, extramural
research on climate variability
NWS
Seasonal
climate
outlooks
North Pacific
Climate and
Ecosystems
Climate and
Ecosystems
Regional Decision
Support
NMFS
Decision Support Research,
Transition to Applications
Regional Climate
Centers
Operational
Climate
Services
14
14
OMB PART
 NOAA’s score: Moderately effective
 Major findings: The Program is relatively strong and has undertaken
steps to improve program management and focus on results.
 NOAA Climate coordinates with other federal agencies through the Climate
Change Science Program
 Deficiencies in the mgmt of NOAA labs activities as identified by the NOAA
Research Review Team
 Need to better integrate performance into budget decisions
 Program has appropriate long-term goals and annual measures which
demonstrate progress
15
15
Congressional
And EOP Update
16
16
Commerce
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Secretary – Carlos M. Guitierrez
Deputy Secretary – David A. Sampson
UnderSecretary for Atmospheres and Oceans – Conrad Lautenbacher
Assistant Secretary for Atmospheres and Oceans – James R. Mahoney
(Ret. 3/31/06)
Deputy UnderSecretary for Atmospheres and Oceans – Jack Kelly
AA for Research – Richard Spinrad
AA for Weather Service – D.L. Johnson
AA for Satellite and Data Information Service – Greg Withee
AA for Ocean Service – Jack Dunnigan
AA for Fisheries – Bill Hogarth
AA for Planning, Programming and Integration – Mary Glackin
17
17
OSTP
18
18
OSTP
•
DIRECTOR'S OFFICE
– John H. Marburger III, Director OSTP, Science Adviser to the President
– Sharon Hays, Chief of Staff
– Joan Rolf, Assistant to Director for International Affairs
•
TECHNOLOGY DIVISION
– Richard Russell, Associate Director for Technology
– Stanley Sokul, Deputy Associate Director for Technology
– Kevin Hurst, Senior Policy Analyst (covers climate change technology)
•
SCIENCE DIVISION
– Associate Director for Science - VACANT
– Diane Jones (primary Point of Contact for Science) - Deputy Associate Director
for Science
– Teresa Fryberger (primary Point of Contact on climate) - Assistant Director,
Environment
– Rob Dimeo - Assistant Director, Physical Sciences
– Mark Weiss - Assistant Director, Social and Behavioral Sciences
– Jon Morse - Senior Policy Analyst
– Kevin Geiss - Senior Policy Analyst
– (OSTP anticipates finding replacement in the next few months for David Halpern
who covered climate and oceans, including GEOSS, for OSTP)
19
19
OMB
Commerce Branch Head – Randy Lyons; NOAA Climate and CCSP Analyst – Andrea Petro
20
20
HR Science
Sen. Rep. Name; State; (Party – District)
16 Jo Bonner, Alabama (R-1)
5 Dana Rohrabacher, California (R-46)
6 Ken Calvert, California (R-44)
4 Lynn C. Woolsey, California (D-6)
8 Michael M. Honda, California (D-15)
13 Brad Sherman, California (D-27)
Sen. Rep. Name; State; (Party – District)
7 Roscoe G. Bartlett, Maryland (R-6)
12 Wayne Gilchrest, Maryland (R-1)
8 Vernon J. Ehlers, Michigan (R-3
21 Joe Schwarz, Michigan (R-7)
9 Gil Gutknecht, Minnesota (R-1)
13 W. Todd Akin, Missouri (R-2)
Sen. Rep. Name; State; (Party – District)
3 Lamar S. Smith, Texas (R-21)
22 Michael T. McCaul, Texas (R-10)
3 Eddie Bernice Johnson, Texas (D-30)
12 Sheila Jackson Lee, Texas (D-18)
17 Al Green, Texas (D-9)
15 Jim Matheson, Utah (D-2)
16 Jim Costa, California (D-20)
9 Brad Miller, North Carolina (D-13
1 Sherwood L. Boehlert, New York,
Chairman (R-24)
19 Dave G. Reichert, Washington (R-8)
6 Mark Udall, Colorado (D-2)
10 Frank D. Lucas, Oklahoma (R-3)
14 Brian Baird, Washington (D-3)
17 Tom Feeney, Florida (R-24)
11 Judy Biggert, Illinois (R-13
5 Darlene Hooley, Oregon (D-5)
14 Timothy V. Johnson, Illinois (R-15)
7 David Wu, Oregon (D-1)
2 Jerry F. Costello, Illinois (D-12)
11 Daniel Lipinski, Illinois (D-3)
20 Michael E. Sodrel, Indiana (R-9)
19 Dennis Moore, Kansas (D-3)
18 Charlie Melancon, Louisiana (D-3)
15 J. Randy Forbes, Virginia (R-4)
4 Curt Weldon, Pennsylvania (R-7)
18 Bob Inglis, South Carolina (R-4)
1 Bart Gordon, Tennessee (D-6)
10 Lincoln Davis, Tennessee (D-4)
2 Ralph M. Hall, Texas (R-4)
21
21
HR Appropriations Committee
Jerry Lewis, CA-41 (R - Chairman)
Anne Northup, KY-3 (R)
David R. Obey, WI-7 (D - Ranking
Democratic Member)
Patrick J. Kennedy, RI-1 (D)
Ralph Regula, OH-16 (R)
Robert Aderholt, AL-4 (R)
John P. Murtha, PA-12 (D)
James E. Clyburn, SC-6 (D)
Harold Rogers, KY-5 (R)
Jo Ann Emerson, MO-8 (R)
Norman D. Dicks, WA-6 (D)
Maurice D. Hinchey, NY-22 (D)
Frank R. Wolf, VA-10 (R)
Kay Granger, TX-12 (R)
Martin Olav Sabo, MN-5 (D)
Lucille Roybal-Allard, CA-34 (D)
Tom DeLay, TX-22 (R)
John E. Peterson, PA-5 (R)
Steny H. Hoyer, MD-5 (D)
Sam Farr, CA-17 (D)
Jim Kolbe, AZ-8 (R)
Virgil Goode, VA-5 (R)
Alan B. Mollohan, WV-1 (D)
Jesse L. Jackson, Jr., IL-2 (D)
James Walsh, NY-25 (R)
John Doolittle, CA-4 (R)
Marcy Kaptur, OH-9 (D)
Carolyn C. Kilpatrick, MI-13 (D)
Charles H. Taylor, NC-11 (R)
Ray LaHood, IL-18 (R)
Peter J. Visclosky, IN-1 (D)
Allen Boyd, FL-2 (D)
David L. Hobson, OH-7 (R)
John Sweeney, NY-20 (R)
Nita M. Lowey, NY-18 (D)
Chaka Fattah, PA-2 (D)
Ernest J. Istook, Jr., OK-5 (R)
Don Sherwood, PA-24 (R)
Jose E. Serrano, NY-16 (D)
Steven R. Rothman, NJ-9 (D)
Henry Bonilla, TX-23 (R)
Dave Weldon, FL-15 (R)
Rosa L. DeLauro, CT-3 (D)
Sanford D. Bishop, Jr., GA-2 (D)
Joe Knollenberg, MI-9 (R)
Michael K. Simpson, ID-2 (R)
James P. Moran, VA-8 (D)
Marion Berry, AR-1 (D)
Jack Kingston, GA-1 (R)
John Abney Culberson, TX-7 (R)
John W. Olver, MA-1 (D)
Rodney P. Frelinghuysen, NJ-11 (R)
Mark Steven Kirk, IL-10 (R)
Ed Pastor, AZ-4 (D)
Roger F. Wicker, MS-1 (R)
Ander Crenshaw, FL-4 (R)
David E. Price, NC-4 (D)
Todd Tiahrt, KS-4 (R)
Dennis R. Rehberg, MT-At Large (R)
Chet Edwards, TX-17 (D)
Zach Wamp, TN-3 (R)
John Carter, TX-31 (R)
Robert E. Cramer, Jr., AL-5 (D)
Tom Latham, IA-4 (R)
Rodney Alexander, LA-5 (R)
22
22
Senate Commerce
Seniority, Name; State; Party
Seniority, Name; State; Party
1 Ted Stevens - Alaska, Chairman R
9 E. Benjamin Nelson - Nebraska D
10 Mark Pryor - Arkansas D
4 Byron L. Dorgan - North Dakota D
2 John McCain - Arizona R
10 John Sununu - New Hampshire R
5 Barbara Boxer - California D
8 Frank Lautenberg - New Jersey D
6 Bill Nelson - Florida D
8 John Ensign - Nevada R
1 Daniel K. Inouye - Hawaii, Ranking D
7 Gordon Smith - Oregon R
12 David Vitter - Louisiana R
11 Jim DeMint - South Carolina R
3 John F. Kerry - Massachussetts D
5 Kay Bailey Hutchison - Texas R
6 Olympia Snowe - Maine R
9 George Allen - Virginia R
4 Trent Lott - Mississippi R
7 Maria Cantwell - Washington D
3 Conrad Burns - Montana R
2 John D. Rockefeller IV - West Virginia D
23
23
Senate Appropriations
Seniority, Name; (Party - State)
Seniority, Name; (Party - State)
2 Ted STEVENS (R-Alaska)
7 Conrad BURNS (R-Montana)
8 Richard SHELBY (R-Alabama)
9 Byron DORGAN (D-North Dakota)
10 Dianne FEINSTEIN (D-California)
9 Judd GREGG (R-New Hampshire)
15 Wayne ALLARD (R-Colorado)
4 Pete DOMENICI (R-New Mexico)
2 Daniel INOUYE (D-Hawaii)
4 Tom HARKIN (D-Iowa)
11 Larry CRAIG (R-Idaho)
6 Harry REID (D-Nevada)
13 Mike DeWINE (R-Ohio)
3 Arlen SPECTER (R-Pennsylvania)
11 Richard DURBIN (D-Illinois)
12 Tim JOHNSON (D-South Dakota)
14 Sam BROWNBACK (R-Kansas)
12 Kay Bailey HUTCHISON (R-Texas)
6 Mitch McCONNELL (R-Kentucky)
13 Mary LANDRIEU (D-Louisiana)
10 Robert BENNETT (R-Utah)
3 Patrick LEAHY (D-Vermont)
5 Barbara MIKULSKI (D-Maryland)
8 Patty MURRAY (D-Washington)
5 Christopher BOND (R-Missouri)
7 Herb KOHL (D-Wisconsin)
1 Thad COCHRAN (R-Mississippi, Chairman)
1 Robert BYRD (D-West Virginia, Ranking)
24
24
Active Legislation
NOAA & CLIMATE RELATED LEGISLATION UNDER CONSIDERATION OR PASSED (February 2006) (bill
reference/title/sponsor/date of last action)
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
*HR 50 NOAA Organic Act (Ehlers), May 2005
*HR 1386 National Drought Preparedness Act of 2005 (Hastings), March 2005: Establishes the National Drought
Council to develop an action plan
*HR 1489 Coastal Ocean Observation System Integration Implementation Act (Gilchrest), May 2005: establish a
coastal ocean observation system
*HR 1584/S 361 Ocean and Coastal Observation Act (Weldon, Allen, Snowe), July 2005: The Committee on
Ocean Policy shall establish and maintain an integrated coastal and ocean observing system. NOAA shall be the
lead federal agency in maintaining and operating the system
*HR 2995/S 517 Weather Modification Research and Technology Transfer Authorization Act (M. Udall,
Hutchinson), June 2005: Establishes in Commerce the Weather Modification Advisory and Research Board
including representatives from the American Meteorological Society and American Society of Civil Engineers
*S 245 Abrupt Climate Change Research Act of 2005 (Collins), February 2005: NOAA ordered to set up an
abrupt climate change research program within OAR
*S 342 Climate Stewardship Act of 2005 (McCain), February 2005
*S 786 National Weather Services Duties Act (Santorum), November 2005: Prohibits the National Weather
Service from providing a product or service (except for severe weather forecasts and warnings) that is or could be
provided by the private sector
*S 1281 NASA Authorization Act of 2005 (Hutchinson), SIGNED INTO LAW: Section 306 of S 1281 limits
the NASA Administrator’s flexibility to transfer “any NASA earth science mission or Earth observing
system to NOAA” until funds to support such a transfer are in the President’s budget request for NOAA. It
also specifies that Administrators of both agencies must approve such a transfer.
*S 1932 Work, Marriage, and Family Promotion Reconciliation Act of 2005 (Gregg), SIGNED INTO LAW: The
Report provides $156 million to “provide for a modern all hazards alert and warning program to provide alerts in
response to natural disasters, man-made accidents, and terrorist incidents.” The Republican Policy Committee
summary of the Conference Report said that the Commerce Department would administer the program.
*National Integrated Drought Information system (NIDIS) Authorization Act, not yet introduced
25
25
Budget
26
26
Where we are Now
Planning
Programming
Execution Congress
FY 06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
Annual Operating Plan
NOAA FY08
Budget Development
27
27
FY05 Highlights
 Congress maintained a steady budget level for Climate and Global
Change research
 Congress increased the Climate Observations & Services budget by a
net $5.4M over FY 2004
Congress increased the CCRI Budget by $17.1M for ocean
observations, carbon cycle, aerosols, and climate modeling efforts
However, Congress decreased all other activities by $11.7M for
NOAA’s Climate Reference Network Network, Baseline
Observations, and other climate research such as NWS climate
services, RISA, & Weather/Climate Research
 Climate Program redirected CCRI funding to maintain critical long-term
monitoring capabilities.
28
28
FY06 Enacted
 Congress maintained a steady budget level for Climate and
Global Change research and a small increase for ARGO
This core capability allows for the infusion of cutting edge
climate and global change research from academic and
other renowned scientific institutions into NOAA.
 After setting aside funding for Climate and Global Change
research and ARGO, the remaining funds are $14.0M below the
FY 2005 appropriation.
 This reduction deeply undercuts the gains made from the
Climate Change Research Initiative (CCRI) started in FY
2003.
 Congress consolidated budget lines, allowing for more
flexibility in determining funding allocations for priority areas. 29
29
SUMMARY FY 2004 - FY 2006
ENACTED CLIMATE BUDGET
BUDGET CATEGORY
Enacted Budget
Difference
FY 2004
FY 2005
FY 2006
2006-2004
1,433
1,478
1,478
45
NOAA Research
171,210
173,828
166,098
-5,112
Climate and Global Change
69,659
67,517
67,490
-2,169
Climate Observations and Services
25,393
13,707
12,419
-12,974
Climate Change Research Initiative
22,356
39,427
27,524
5,168
Laboratories and Joint Institutes
47,246
42,860
42,842
-4,404
Arctic Research (less earmarks)
3,637
2,933
2,987
-650
Earmarks (OAR)
2,953
7,384
12,836
9,883
NESDIS
51,651
60,512
59,882
8,231
NESDIS Data Center’s & Info. Mgt.
29,897
35,908
31,781
1,884
Earmarks
21,754
24,604
28,101
6,347
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
17,258
17,634
19,699
2,441
3,464
3,465
3,479
256,669
234,908
30
-11,624
NATIONAL MARINE FISHERIES
SERVICE
Program Support - Facilities
TOTAL CLIMATE
241,552
30
FY06 Earmarks
NOAA Climate Program
($ in 000's)
FY 2004
Earmarks
OAR Climate Research
NOAA Joint Institute
CA Ozone
Climate System Research Center
Univ of AL Huntsville Climate Research
Intl Council for local environmental initiatives
Abrupt Climate Change Research
Drought Research Study
Coastal Vulnerability to Climate Change
Abrupt Climate Change Research (U of ME)
Climate & Environmental Change
Center for Urban Environmental Research
Advanced Study Institute for Environmental Prediction
Arctic Research
Barrow Arctic Research Center
Subtotal, OAR Earmarks
FY 2005
Earmarks
FY 2006
Earmarks
3,001
247
739
986
492
740
986
247
986
1,480
495
2,458
487
2,438
1,995
986
1,479
2,931
2,953
7,384
12,836
6,051
3,930
5,941
2,073
989
5,766
3,925
5,656
2,464
1,971
5,647
3,930
5,537
2,959
1,972
2,959
2,473
986
2,437
NESDIS Climate Research
Archive, Access, & Assessment - KY
Archive, Access, & Assessment - MD
Archive, Access, & Assessment - WV
Regional Climate Centers
International Pacific Research Ctr (U of H)
Integrated Environmeantal Applications & Information Center
Pacific Ocean & Environment Information Center
National Climatic Data Center - GOES Date Archive Project
National Climatic Data Center - Prototyping Data Grids
Quality Assurance / Quality Control
Payment to NMAO
Comprehensive Large Array Data Stewardship Sys (CLASS)
Subtotal, NESDIS Earmarks
297
1,071
328
21,754
24,604
2,335
28,101
Total Climate Earmarks
24,707
31,988
40,937
2,466
296
31
31
Grants Distribution
 NOAA has maintained a steady proportion of our appropriation for the external
community through the Climate Program Office (formerly Office of Global Programs)
 NOAA has kept its promise to put more money into the external community
through the Climate Observations & Services Program (COSP) as a result of the CCRI
initiative since FY 2003. However, because the appropriation for CCRI and COSP has
been significantly decreased, we expect this portion to go down in COSP
FY03
FY04
FY05
FY06
(estimate)
Climate &
Global Change
COSP
71 %
48 %
70 %
71 %
56 %
55 %
71 %
48 %
32
32
FY07 Expanding Priorities
OSTP Environment Research Initiatives
Global Earth Observations
“Pilot integrated observing systems, such as those that contribute to natural hazard assessment
and disaster warnings.”
“Ensure continued coordination and implementation of the US Strategic Plan (for IEOS) and
continued strong US leadership in the international community.”
Global Climate Change
“Implement the 2003 ‘Strategic Plan for the US Climate Change Science Program’ and focus on
the topics described in the 2003 ‘US Climate Change technology Program: Research and
Current Activities.’”
Ocean Observations and Research
“Implement activities outlined in the Administration's 2004 US Ocean Action Plan.”
Fresh Water Supplies, US and Global
“Improve research to understand the processes that control water availability and
quality… collect and make available the data needed to ensure an adequate water supply for
the future.”
FY2007 Administration Research and Development Budget Priorities Release; 8 th July 2005
33
33
FY07 Request
 National Integrated Drought Information System +$4M
 Coping with Drought: Impacts Research
 Improved Climate Predictions +$2M
 Explain Climate Conditions to Improve Predictions (Reanalysis)
 Integrated Ocean Observation System +$6.1M
 Climate Reference Network (CRN) +$1.2M (restores to FY04 level)
 Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) +$2.7M (restores to
FY04 level)
34
34
Comparison of NOAA Climate
Budget Structure
New Structure
Old Structure
NOAA RESEARCH – CLIMATE RESEARCH
Labs & Joint Institutes
Climate Competitive Research Program
Labs & Joint Institutes
Climate & Global Change
Climate Observations & Services
Climate Change Research Initiative
Arctic Research (from OC&GL)
Climate Operations
Climate Observations & Services
Climate Data & Information
Climate Change Research Initiative
Other Partnerships
Other Partnerships
NATIONAL MARINE FISHERIES SERVICE
Climate Regimes & Ecosystem Productivity
Climate Regimes & Ecosystem Productivity
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
Operations and Research
Operations and Research
NESDIS
Archive, Access & Assessment
Archive, Access & Assessment
NOAA has been working with OMB and Congressional staff to improve its budget
35
structure and enable NOAA to have more flexibility when executing its budget
35
NOAA CLIMATE PROGRAM
Operations, Research and Facilities &
FY 2004
FY2005
FY 2005
FY 2006
FY 2006
FY 2007
Procurement, Acquisition, & Construction
Enacted
President
Enacted
President's
Enacted
President's
NATIONAL MARINE FISHERIES SERVICE
1,433
2,000
1,478
2,000
1,478
1,984
Climate Regimes & Ecosystem Productivity
1,433
2,000
1,478
2,000
1,478
1,984
NOAA RESEARCH
171,210
181,204
173,828
174,276
166,098
177,832
Laboratories & Cooperative Institutions
44,163
46,005
42,860
44,627
45,843
44,968
Climate Data & Information
3,049
0
0
0
2,401
6,266
Competitive Research Program
0
0
0
0
110,587
125,712
Climate Operations
0
0
0
0
363
886
Climate & Global Change Program
69,659
59,325
67,517
57,405
0
0
Climate Observations & Services
47,749
72,820
53,134
69,227
0
0
Arctic Research Program
3,637
3,054
4,928
3,017
0
0
Other Partnership Programs
2,953
0
5,389
0
6,904
0
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
17,258
18,060
17,634
21,635
19,699
9,612
NESDIS
51,651
38,192
60,512
38,511
59,882
37,157
3,514
3,464
3,514
3,465
3,479
3,514
3,464
3,514
3,465
3,479
242,970
256,916
239,936
250,622
230,064
PROGRAM SUPPORT
Facilities
TOTAL NOAA CLIMATE PROGRAM
0
241,552
36
36
Climate Goal Budget
By Climate Program
Climate
Programs
FY 2004
Enacted
FY 2005
Enacted
FY 2006
Enacted
Difference
2006-2004
FY 2007
Pres.Bud.
COA
127,685
138,446
133,969
6,284
114,300
CF
33,712
42,887
37,748
4,036
39,200
CPP
61,785
59,358
59,576
-2,209
57,400
CE
1,433
1,478
4,437
3,004
1,764
RDS
16,937
14,747
14,892
-2,045
17,400
Total
241,552
256,916
250,622
9,070
230,064
37
37
Proposed
FY08 Priorities
 National Integrated Drought Information System
 Drought Internet Portal
 Improved Observations
 System monitoring
 Improved Climate Predictions
 Climate Test Bed
 Weather Climate Connection
 Integrated Ocean Observation System
 Climate Forcing
 Aerosol Forcing
 Carbon Monitoring
 Water Vapor Processes
38
38
Proposed FY09 Themes
Core Function
Observati on
and data
management
system and
models
PRIORITY AREAS FY09-FY13
Integrated approach to
environmental information
management and modeling
Focus for FY09 on integrated
earth observation and information
management system for space
and non-space based observing
systems.
EXTERN AL DEMANDS
U.S. Integrated Earth
Observati on System (IEOS)
1. Linkages between Climate forcin g, Air Quality,
and Regional Climate Changes
2. CTB projects that influenc e regions
Global Earth Observin g System
of Systems (GEOSS)
3. Forecas ting decadal signals Š link to ecosystems
and extreme events, e.g., drought
Climate Change Science
Program (CCSP)
4. Integrated Observation System (IOS) to include
IOOS, ISOS, IUOS, Baseline Observa tories, Arctic
Ocean Observin g System, and Referenc e Networks
(CRN, AK CRN, SEBN, Refer ence Radiosonde)
Arctic Climate Impact
Assessment (ACIA))
Info rmation
services,
forecast s and
predictions
PRIORITY ACTIVITIES FY09-FY13
Leadership of science-based climate
information services
National Integrated Droug ht
Info rmation System (NIDIS)
Focus for FY09 on Attribution and
Understan ding of the link s between
climate and extreme events such as
drough t, hurricane s, fires, floods, and
weathe r extremes.
CCSP/CCTP links
Americas Partnership Program
(APP)
Stakeholde r workshops in FY05
5. Scientific Data Stewardshi p/CLASS
6. Satellite (NOAA-NIST) Cal/Val to include use of
referenc e stations measurements
1. Implement NIDIS
2 Enabling hazard resilient communities via
develo pment of the variou s coastal information such
as coastal climatologies, coastal inundation and
erosion , sea leve l rise, sea ice, and
wind/extratropical storms. Use hindcast and
reanalysis and understand the requirements and
use of climate information.
3. Consequ ences of sectoral changes (i.e. energy
usage) Š understanding and strategies for mitigation
and adaptation
th
World Climate Confer ence 3
Ocean and
coastal
ecosystem
management
Breakthroug h
organiza tional
perfo rmance
Understanding of climate impacts on
marine ecosyst ems to improve
ecosyst em forecasting and
management
Focus for FY09 is identification of
operat ional needs from research
satellites and new operational
capabilities needed by NOAA (i.e.
4. Climate of the 20 century and past 1,000 years
5. Strengthened provis ion of climate service s
nationally, regionally, and internationally
- U.S. Commission on Ocean
Policy (USCOP) Report
1. Climate-Ecosystem Competitive Progr am
- U.S. Ocean Policy Plan
3. Significant change in sea ice extent and duration
- Stakeholder workshops in FY05
4. Vulnerab ility of fisherie s to regime changes
NASA Authorization Act of 2005
NASA-NO AA Transition and satellites such as
altimeter (To be discussed with Satellites sub-goal
and Admiral)
39
2. Climate-Ecosystem Indices
39
Trends
Bleak Fiscal Climate
Growing Commitments
Increasing External Demands
Expanding Priorities
The Risks of Drift
40
40
NOAA/NASA
Research and Operations
Transitions
41
41
Background
• A Joint Working Group was (JWG) established
December 2005 by Interagency Agreement on Terms
of Reference (ToR)
• ToR states that JWG will report on progress of the
following activities by January 31, 2006:
– Organizational and performance framework for R&O activity
– Process for transitioning the use of NASA research
capabilities to NOAA and to facilitate use of NOAA
operational capabilities in support of NASA
– Near-term opportunities for transitioning capabilities
• NASA FY2005 Authorization Act directs the
establishment of JWG, with status report to Congress
by February 15, 2007
42
42
Approach to Process
•
Approach to Process
– Identify Opportunities
– Form Transition Teams to:
•
•
•
•
•
Evaluate the ability to achieve the transition;
Assess what would be required to effect a successful transition;
Connect with NOAA and/or NASA budget planning;
Report to JWG
Opportunity Categories
– Observing Capability Transition (implementing operational satellite
observations to continue measurement streams begun in research
programs)
– Mission Extension: (extending research missions beyond their prime
missions when those missions have both research and operational uses)
– Data Record Development and Stewardship (creation of long-term data
records that extend the research data records)
– Data utilization (acceleration of the operational use of data from research
programs)
– Tools and Standards Transition (development of tools and standards that
can be used for both research and operations)
43
43
Opportunity Categories
Near Term
NASA funded
and deployed
effort,
demonstrated
operational
benefits,
NOAA
currently
expending
funds to
support
transition
Mid Term
Under
development
and/or
deployed by
NASA,
NOAA
evaluating
potential
operational
benefit
Long Term
Under study
or concept
development
by NASA,
NOAA
anticipates
potential
future
operational
benefit
44
44
Links to Ongoing NOAA
Budget Execution
• FY2006 Execution
– Sea Surface Height, Surface Vector Winds, Ocean Color
• Develop and execute plan for $4M earmark – NOAA team’s for
each effort are in place, NASA has been encouraged to
participate
• FY2007 Budgeting
– Ocean Surface Topography Mission
• Program funds for ground station development and pre-launch
calibration/validation work are in place
45
45
Links to NOAA Process
• FY2008 Budgeting
– Respond to FY2008 Program Decision Memorandum
• Weather and Water Goal to assess feasibility of Solar Wind
BAA proposals
• NOAA Observing System Council to analyze impact of loss of
NASA research capabilities on NOAA operational products and
services – recommend research capabilities that require
transition to operations
• Satellite sub-goal to consider additional inter-satellite calibration
of instruments and development of improved product suites.
Develop recommendation for inclusion in FY08 budget
formulation (e.g., NOAA/NIST Initiative)
• JWG provide input to NOAA Transition Board on JWG-identified
transitions
46
46
Links to NOAA Process
• FY2009 Planning
– Identify transition opportunities in April Workshop
– Provide input to Mission Goals by June 1 for preparation of POPs
– Provide Transition Plans to Goals by August 31, for preparation of
Program Plans
47
47
Working Schedule
1/06
NASA & NOAA
JWG Formed
Cross-NOAA
Team Reconstituted
(for $4M)
JWG First
Report
4/06
FY-09
Opportunities
Selected
5/06
Transition
Teams
Formed
7/06
Transition
Teams
Develop
Plans
NOAA FY09
POP Input
Submitted
9/06
Transition
Plans
Completed
(Defining steps
necessary for
successful
transitions)
11/06
2/07
Draft
Final
Report to
Report to
Congress
Congress
(about FY08
opportunities)
JWG
Second
Report
48
48
NOAA Climate Program
And the
US Climate Change Science
Program
Update
49
49
CCSP Retreat
•
•
•
•
•
Interagency Working Groups
Decision Support
Program Integration
Metrics
Leadership
50
50
NOAA Climate Activities
FY06 Enacted Budget
Program Support 1%
Other Partnerships 3%
Operations 32%
(Boulder Facilities)
CCSP 63%
Data Centers, Predictions,
Delivery
Directly Related 1%
Arctic, Fisheries
51
51
NOAA Climate Program
alignment with CCSP Goals
80.0
70.0
60.0
50.0
FY04
Actual
$116.4M
FY05
Actual
$119.9M
40.0
30.0
20.0
FY06
Enacted
$150.5M
10.0
0.0
Goal 1
Goal 2
Goal 3
Goal 4
Goal 5
FY04
43.2
26.0
36.5
0.0
9.4
FY05
50.6
29.1
34.8
0.0
8.0
FY06
72.3
48.1
55.9
0.0
8.5
FY06 Our Changing Planet
52
52
Selected CCSP Agencies
(from “Our Changing Planet FY06)
AGENCY
FY 05
Estimate
($ M)
FY 06
Pres.Bud.
($ M)
FOCUS
NOAA/1
$123.7
$180.9
Sustained observations and extended
climate records, applied research,
projections and decision support
NSF
$198.0
$197.0
Basic research
NASA
(research)
$292.1
$280.9
Remote sensing
DOE
$128.6
$132.1
Climate modeling/scenarios
USDA
$72.7
$88.5
Land-use, terrestrial ecosystems
EPA
$20.0
$20.5
Risk Assessments
/1 Starting in FY06, funding to NOAA’s Laboratories is included as part of the NOAA’s activities.
This is a result of the evolution of NOAA’s role in CCSP.
53
53
CCSP Near-Term Deliverables
• To comply with the terms of Section 106 of GCR
Act, the CCSP will produce assessments that focus
on a variety of science and policy issues important
for public discussion and decision-making.
• The assessments will be composed of syntheses,
reports, and integrated analyses that the CCSP
will complete over the next 4 years.
• This approach takes account of the need for
assessments on the full range of issues spanning
all CCSP objectives and will provide a "snapshot"
of knowledge of the environmental and
socioeconomic aspects of climate variability and
change.
54
54
CCSP Synthesis and Assessment
Products (S&A)
Status of NOAA IQA-Led CCSP S&A Products
CCSP
S&AP
Federal
Advisory
Committee
Prospectus
Status
established
Complete
planned
Under Review
Carbon (2.2)
N/A
Complete
Ozone (2.4)
N/A
Temp trends
(1.1)
Reanalysis
(1.3)
Projections
(3.2)
Extremes (3.3)
Decision
support (5.3)
N/A
planned
Planned/
approval
underway
Under
development
Under
development
Under Review
Under Review
Authorship
Review
Approach
Web
publication
date (CY)
NRC (complete)
Q2 2006
NOAA-led
Q2 2008
NOAA-led
Q1 2007
Feds
NOAA-led
Q2 2008
Feds
NRC (tentative)
Q3 2007
Feds, non-feds
NRC (tentative)
Q2 2008
14 Feds, 18
non-fed
NRC
Q4 2007
11 Feds, 14
non-fed
6 Feds, 7
university
10 Feds, 11
non-fed (funded
via contract)
55
55
Climate Working Group
56
56
Next Meetings
July 31 - Aug 3: Summer Retreat
Topic: NOAA and the Drought Challenge
Place: Lodge at Santa Fe, New Mexico
See Handout for Proposal
Need to Approve by March 31.
October 10 -11: Priorities
Topic: Review of NOAA FY09-13 Priorities
Place: TBD
57
57
CWG Membership
Get updated nominee list and
needs
58
58
CWG Membership Rotation
2006
Abbott
2007
Curry
2008
Wood
Brown
Prather
Weller
Busalacchi
Broad
Shea
Penner
Overpeck
Pietrafesa
Trenberth
Stephens
Carbone
TBD
TBD
TBD
59
59
BACKUP
60
Potential CWG Member Nominees
•1. Regional Services
•Kelly Redmond (Western RCC, DRC)
•D. Robinson (Rutgers, State Cli.)
•Ken Kunkel (Ill. State Water Survey)
•2. Operations
•Tony Hollingsworth (ECMWF)
•Alan Betts (ECMWF)
•Vanessa L. Griffin (NASA Goddard Space Flight Center)
•3. Industry
•Heidi Cullen (The Weather Channel)
•Raymond J. Ban (The Weather Channel)
•Bob Ryan (WRC-4)
•Kristie L. Ebi (Electric Power Research Institute)
•Frank Nutter (ReInsurance Assoc)
•George Frederick (Vaisala)
•Mack McFarland (DuPont) – (Emissions and Atm. Comp.)
•Ken Haas (Ford Motor)
•Brian P. Flannery (Exxon Mobil Corporation) –(Emissions, tech)
•T. Stephen Wittrig (BP) – (Emissions, Tech.)
61
61
Potential CWG Member Nominees
•4. Carbon
•Mike Bender (Princeton)
•Steve Pacala (Princeton)
•Steven C. Wofsy (Harvard University)
•Cindy Lee (SUNY-Stonybrook)
•Bob Anderson (LDEO/Columbia)
•Dave Karl (Univ. of Hawaii)
•A. Scott Denning (Colorado State University)
•Chris Field (Carnegie/Stanford)
•Alan Lucier (National Council for Air and Stream Improvement)
•5. Decision Support
•Roger Pulwarty (Univ. of Colorado/CIRES)
•Katharine L. Jacobs (Arizona State Department of Water Resources)
•William Pizer or Molly Macauley (RFF)
•David Cash (Mass State Env. Affairs) – Air Policy (former Harvard U – Clark group,
evaluated dec. supp. activities)
62
62
Potential CWG Member Nominees
•6. Socio-Economic Impacts
•Diana M. Liverman (Oxford)
•Bill Easterling (Pennsylvania State University)
•Diane McKnight (Ucolorado)
•Cynthia Rosenzweig (NASA GISS)
•7. Water Resources/Land Processes
•Jim Shuttleworth (Univ. of Arizona)
•Dennis Lettenmaier (Univ. of Washington)
•John R. Townshend (University of Maryland)
•Douglas McChesney (Washington State Department of Ecology) or somebody from a State Water
Resources Board
•Peter Gleick (Pacific Institute)
•David Matthews (Bureau of Reclamation)
•Daniel Lashof (Natural Resources Defense Council)
•Roni Avissar (Duke University)
•Jayant Sathaye (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory)
•Anthony C. Janetos (H. John Heinz, III Center)
•Steven W. Running (University of Montana)
•David Skole (Michigan State University)
63
63
Potential CWG Member Nominees
•8. Oceans
•Paul Bissett (Florida Env. Res. Inst.)
•Rita Colwell (Univ. of Maryland, Canon)
•9. Atmospheric Dynamics, Chemistry/Composition
•James Anderson (Harvard University)
•Daniel J. Jacob (Harvard University)
•William H. Brune (Pennsylvania State University)
•James Hurrell (NCAR)
•10. Ecosystem
•Richard A. Houghton (Woods Hole Research Center)
•11. Polar
•John Walsh (Univ. of Alaska)
•Lawson W. Brigham (U.S. Arctic Research Commission)
•12. Socio-Economic
•James A. Edmonds (PNNL)
•Andrew Solow (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)
64
64
Potential CWG Member Nominees
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
13. Climate Change and Modeling
Max J. Suarez (NASA)
Philip B. Duffy (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory)
14. Observations and Data Systems
Thomas A. Boden (Oak Ridge National Laboratory)
Bruce Wielicki (NASA Langley)
Roberta Balstad Miller (Columbia University)(Social Sciences and data issues, not
services)
15. Integrated Assessments
Gerald M. Stokes (Joint Global Change Research Institute)
65
65
NOAA Climate Program
In the Community
66
66
NRC Studies
 NRC Committee on Archiving and Accessing Environmental and Geospatial Data at
NOAA (DOC directed)
Workshops 2006
 Climate Impacts on California Current Ecosystems, May 16-18, 2006, La Jolla, CA
 GCOS Upper Air Workshop Series, Seattle; May 22-24, 2006.
 2nd Climate Data Homogeneity Workshop, NCDC, March 27 2006
 North America Drought Workshop for October in Mexico City.
 Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop
 Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop
Workshops 2005
 GCOS Upper Air Workshop Series, Boulder; February 8-11, 2005
 Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop, October 2005
 NCEP Product Review, December 2005
 Annual Ocean Climate Observations Workshop
 Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop
 Planning Workshop to Develop Hydroclimatic Reconstructions for Decision Support in the
Colorado River Basin
 2005 Western States Seasonal Climate and Fire Assessment Workshop, Boulder, CO
 Western Water Assessment (WWA) on December 1, 2005, in Golden, Colorado and
December 12, 2005, in Cheyenne, Wyoming
Town Hall Meetings
 Research Directions for NOAA: Near- and Long-Term
Perspectives, AGU, May 2005
 Integrated Earth Observing System Public Workshop, Washington, DC from May 9-10,
2005

Memberships
o Member of the NRC Committee on the Scientific Bases of Colorado River Basin Water
Management (Connie Woodhouse, NCDC)
67
67
NOAA Climate
What makes NOAA’s role in Climate Science unique?
NOAA has many leadership roles…
Only agency that provides operational climate forecasts and information
services (nationally and internationally)
 Only agency that provides daily information about climate to all sectors
Recognized as a leader in climate change science both nationally and
internationally
 Provides scientific leadership for the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate
Change (IPCC) Working Group I
 Leader for the US Climate Change Science Program (CCSP)
 Leader for 7 of the 21 CCSP Synthesis and Assessment products
 Leader in the implementation of the Global Ocean Observing System (NOAA
contributes 51% of in situ observations, other US agencies 3%)
Examples of interagency coordination: Interagency Working Group on Earth Observations,
North American Carbon Program, CCSP Interagency Working Groups
68
68
Emerging Delivery of Climate Services
Current Products; [Future Products]
Type of Service
Data and
NOAA’s climate services Monitoring
provide data, operational, Products
and information
products.
Climate Services are the
timely production and
delivery of useful climate
data, information, and
knowledge to users,
including decision makers.
Product is a general term
for tangible results,
technology, or information
that have potential value in
one or more uses.
Sample Products
Observed Data Sets,
Climatologies, Climate
Normals, Indices, Drought
Monitor
Assessments
IPCC, Ozone layer, Fisheries
stocks [North American Carbon
Budget, Sea level rise impacts]
Outlooks
Frequency of
Issuance
Weekly, Annually,
Decadally
Example Users
Construction,
Heating, Fire
management,
5 years,
Biannually
National/
International
energy and land
use, Agriculture,
Insurance
Week Two to Interannual,
Drought outlook [Air Quality,
chemistry, and ecosystem
outlooks, Weather risks.]
Weekly, Monthly
Public health,
Energy,
Agriculture,
Water, resource
managers, policy
makers, public
Projections (“if…,
then…”)
Scenario model runs
[Ecosystem outlooks, Net oceanic
and terrestrial primary
productivity, Coastal ecosystem
response]
Annually, 5 year,
10 year
Energy, Coastal
and Marine
Ecosystems
managers, Policy
makers
Regional Decision
Support
Streamflow information, Fine
scale climate mapping, Local
ENSO impacts [Wildfire outlooks,
Coastal inundation mapping,
Regional carbon maps]
On demand,
Monthly,
SeasonallyAnnually
Agriculture, Fire
and water
resource mgmt.,
Coastal and
fisheries mgmt.,
69
Energy/emissions
mgmt.
69
CLIMATE PROGRAM PERFORMANCE MEASURES
Performance measures to assess achievement of goal outcomes
PROGRAM
OBSERVATION
S AND
ANALYSIS
CLIMATE
FORCING
CLIMATE
PREDICTIONS
AND
PROJECTIONS
CLIMATE AND
ECOSYSTEMS
REGIONAL
DECISION
SUPPORT
PERFORMANCE MEASURE
PERFORMANCE OBJECTIVE
DESIRED END STATE
Increased percentage of ocean,
atmospheric, and select terrestrial
climate “state variables” with
quantitative analysis reports in
NOAA’s Annual State of the
Climate reports
Describe and understand the
state of the climate system
through integrated observation,
analysis, and data stewardship
Integrated and complete ocean and surface,
upper air and space observing systems in
support of the mission outcome
Improved estimates of the
magnitude, associated error, and
sources of variability in
atmospheric forcing agents
Reduce uncertainty in climate
projections through timely
information on the forcing and
feedbacks contributing to
change in the Earth’s climate
Sufficient information and understanding
necessary to link specific emissions to the
radiative forcing of climate change, leading to
useful products and services for sciencebased decisions at global, regional, and local
levels
Increased climate predictive skill
over a range of time scales
Improve climate predictive
capability from weeks to
decades, with an increased
range of a applicability for
management and policy
decisions
A seamless suite of forecasts on
intraseasonal, interannual, and multi-decadal
timescales and applications using ensembles
of multiple climate models in support of the
mission outcome
Increased number of ecological
forecasts and living marine
resource assessments used by
managers that incorporate indices
of climate variability and change
Understand and predict the
consequences of climate
variability and change on
marine ecosystems
An ability to predict probable consequences
of global climate change on ecological
systems and living resources in support of the
mission outcome
Improved ability of society to plan
and respond to climate variability
and climate change using NOAA
climate products and information
Increase availability of climate
products and services to
enhance public and privatesector decision-making
A mature and efficient system for
understanding and responding to stakeholder
needs for products and services in support of
the mission outcome to incorporate NOAA
70
products into plans and decisions
70
CLIMATE PROGRAM PERFORMANCE
MEASURES
Climate Performance Objective
GPRA Measure
Describe and understand the state of the
climate system through integrated
observations, analysis, and data
management.
Determine the National Explained Variance (%) for Temperature and
Precipitation for the Contiguous United States using USCRN Stations
(Baseline 2003: 95%/84%, Target 2011: 98%/95%)
Reduce the Error in Global Measurement of Sea Surface Temperature
(Baseline 2006 new: 0.5C, Target 2011: 0.2C)
Reduce uncertainty in climate projections
through timely information on the forcing
and feedbacks contributing to changes in
the Earth’s climate.
Reduce the Uncertainty in the Magnitude of the North American (NA)
Carbon Uptake (Baseline 2003: Target 2011: 0.3GtC/year)
Reduce the Uncertainty in Model Simulations of the Influence of
Aerosols on Climate (Baseline 2006 new: IPCC TAR, Target 2011:
50%)
Improve climate predictive capability from
weeks to decades, with an increased
range of applicability for management and
policy decisions.
Understand and predict the consequences
of climate variability and change on
marine ecosystems.
Increase number and use of climate
products and services to enhance public
and private sector decision-making.
U.S. Temperature Forecasts (Cumulative Skill Score Computed Over
the Regions Where Predictions are Made) (Baseline 2003: 17; Target
2011: 22)
None
Improve Society's Ability to Plan and Respond to Climate Variability
and Change Using NOAA Climate Products and Information (Baseline
2006 new: 32, Target 2011: 35 assessments)
71
71
Senate language in the NOAA
FY05 budget for NOAA
• “Provide NOAA the capability to transition NASA
remote sensed ocean measurements into operational
products for the user community”
• Observations explicitly mentioned: “ocean winds from
scatterometers,…sea level…from altimeters,
and…ocean color”
• Initially a one-year $4M level of effort, with no
assurance for continuation, it was continued in the
FY06 budget
• Continued as “Research to Operations/NASA-NOAA
Partnerships”
72
72
NASA FY2005 Authorization Act
SEC. 306. COORDINATION WITH THE NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
(a) JOINT WORKING GROUP.—The Administrator and the Administrator of NOAA shall appoint a Joint Working
Group, which shall review and monitor missions of the two agencies to ensure maximum coordination in the
design, operation, and transition of missions where appropriate. The Joint Working Group shall also prepare the
plans required by subsection (c).
(b) COORDINATION REPORT.—Not later than February 15 of each year, beginning with the first fiscal year after the
date of enactment of this Act, the Administrator and the Administrator of NOAA shall jointly transmit a report to
the Committee on Science of the House of Representatives and the Committee on Commerce, Science, and
Transportation of the Senate on how the earth science programs of NOAA and NASA will be coordinated during
the fiscal year following the fiscal year in which the report is transmitted.
(c) COORDINATION OF TRANSITION PLANNING AND REPORTING.— The Administrator, in conjunction with the
Administrator of NOAA and in consultation with other relevant agencies, shall evaluate relevant NASA science
missions for their potential operational capabilities and shall prepare transition plans for the existing and future
Earth observing systems found to have potential operational capabilities.
(d) LIMITATION.—The Administrator shall not transfer any NASA earth science mission or Earth observing system to
the NOAA until the plan required under subsection (c) has been approved by the Administrator and the
Administrator NOAA and until financial resources have been identified to support the transition or transfer in the
President’s budget request for NOAA
73
73
Sea Surface Height Transition
• NOAA Lead: Ants Leetma (OAR/GFDL)
• Near Term Objectives
– Sign the MOU for OSTM/Jason-2
– Complete ground system with EUMETSAT for OSTM
– Confirm requirements for Jason-3
• How many altimeters? What kind? (frequencies, orbits, etc.)
– Build case for Jason-3 in FY2009 budget
74
74
Surface Vector Winds Transition
• NOAA Lead: Bob Atlas (OAR/AOML)
• Near Term Objectives
– Confirm requirements for Surface Vector Winds (SVW)
• Hold workshop 1st week of June at Tropical Prediction Center to
lay out plan for evaluating the similarities, differences, and
synergies for all sources of SVW observations
– Examples are: Windsat, CMIS, ASCAT, QuikSCAT, Dualfrequency MEOSCAT
• Assess options to meet those requirements
75
75
Ocean Color Transition
• Lead: Rick Stumpf (NOS/NCCOS)
• Near Term Objectives
– Include MOBY in Climate/NIST initiative
– Clarify requirements (M. Abbott 2nd workshop at
NOAA Cooperative Institute for Oceanographic
Satellite Studies)
– Insert Ocean Color requirements in the FY2009
PPBES Planning Phase
76
76
A Research-to-Operations Transition Process
How it has been done - sequential
•
NASA
–
–
Justify a research mission – on whatever basis
Implement the research mission
•
•
•
•
NOAA & NASA
–
Conduct demonstrations in a setting to entrain operational users
•
•
•
•
Supply access – timely down-linking and product generation
Provide knowledge of, and tools for, using those products
Demonstrate real/potential benefits – satisfy operational user needs & show value
NOAA
–
–
–
Justify an operational mission based on cost and benefit
Implement the new/modified systems with a means to ensure continuity
Optimize the performance of the operational system
•
•
Demonstrate the technology – show that it works
Retrieve geophysical products – show that they make sense
Demonstrate scientific utility – show that the products are useful
Maintain scientific involvement to validate operational products
NASA & NOAA
–
Encourage access to data for research use in order to facilitate the development of
improved operational products
77
77
A Research-to-Operations Transition Process
How it could be done – in parallel
•
NASA – at the same time, NOAA enters a complementary wedge in PPBES
process
–
–
Justify a research mission – on whatever basis
Implement the research mission
•
•
•
•
NOAA & NASA
–
Conduct demonstrations in a setting to entrain operational users
•
•
•
•
Supply access – timely down-linking and product generation
Provide knowledge of, and tools for, using those products
Demonstrate real/potential benefits – satisfy operational user needs & show value
NOAA
–
–
–
Justify an operational mission based on cost and benefit
Implement the new/modified systems with a means to ensure continuity
Optimize the performance of the operational system
•
•
Demonstrate the technology – show that it works
Retrieve geophysical products – show that they make sense
Demonstrate scientific utility – show that the products are useful
Maintain scientific involvement to validate operational products
NASA & NOAA
–
Encourage access to data for research use in order to facilitate the development of
improved operational products
78
78