Download WWIT - June 15th, Presentation - Metropolitan Washington Council

The TPB What Would It Take Scenario:
Meeting Regional Climate Change
Mitigation Goals for the Mobile Sector
Presentation to MWAQC CAC
June 15, 2009
Monica Bansal
Department of Transportation Planning
National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board (TPB)
Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments (COG)
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TPB’s Current Climate Change Efforts
Using goals set in COG Climate Change Report
Return to 2005 levels by 2012
20% below 2005 levels by 2020
80% below 2005 levels by 2050
Developing baseline mobile GHG projections through 2030
Analyzing a “What Would It Take?” scenario to see what
reductions in the mobile sector will be necessary to meet
regional goals
Seeking GHG reduction strategies that could be included in
the region’s transportation plans and programs
2
Where are Transportation Emissions
Coming From?
2010 Travel and CO2 Emissions
8-Hour Ozone Non-Attainment Area
VMT (billions) Annual
%
CO2 Emissions
(Millions of Tons) Annual
%
Passenger Cars
19.06
47%
6.76
24%
18.94
46%
15.38
56%
2.94
7%
5.46
20%
100%
27.60
100%
Light Duty Trucks
Heavy Duty
Total
source: 2007 CLRP
40.95
3
The WWIT Scenario
Analyze three categories of strategies to reduce mobile CO2
emissions for effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, and implementation
timeframe
Assess combinations of strategies from these three categories:
Fuel Efficiency
Beyond CAFE
standards
Fuel Carbon
Intensity
Travel Efficiency
Alternative fuels
(biofuels, hydrogen,
electricity)
Reduce VMT through
changes in land use,
travel behavior, prices
Reduce congestion
Improve operational
efficiency
4
Example Mobile GHG Reduction
Strategies to be Examined
Fuel Efficiency
• Extending CAFE requirements to heavy trucks
• Cash for Clunkers programs
• Benefits of enhanced CAFE possibilities (current Obama proposal)
Alternative Fuels
• Regional green fleet policy
• Accelerated adoption of clean-fuel vehicles (hybrids, flex fuel)
Travel Efficiency:
• Pricing policies to reduce VMT (tolling, congestion pricing, parking
pricing)
• Shift short trips to non-motorized modes
• Increased transit capacity
• Land use shifts (TOD, walkable activity centers)
• Signal optimization
5
Getting to the goal of 40% reduction
below 2005 levels by 2030
Do these strategies get us there?
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What Next?
More TERMS
GHG benefits of transportation/land use scenario
(CLRP Aspirations Scenario)
Cost-effectiveness analysis
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