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Transcript
Climate Change: From Global Predictions to Local Action Mathematical Sciences Research Institute April 11 2007 Global Predictions Inez Fung University of California, Berkeley Mathematical Sciences Research Institute April 11 2007 Climate Change: Recent News • Feb 7 2007: United Nations Env Programme - Intergovt Panel on Climate Change - observed warming since the 20thC is very likely due to anthropogenic greenhouse gases • April 2 2007: US Supreme Court: anthropogenic CO2 is a pollutant • April 7 2007: UNEP IPCC WG 2 - warming has had discernible influence on physical and biological systems Changing Composition of the Atmosphere Analysis of ancient air bubbles trapped in ice Direct measurements of atm composition in the past centuries Increases since 1800 due to human activities At equilibrium: J. Hans The Last 500,000 years and the last 200 years J. Hansen Global mean temperatures are rising faster with time Warmest 12 years: 1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006, 2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,2000 Period Rate 50 0.1280.026 100 0.0740.018 Years /decade IPCC AR4 Drought is increasing most places The mostin rain Mainly decrease over landimportant in tropicsspatial and pattern (top) of subtropics, but enhanced the atmospheric monthly by increased Drought demand Palmer with warming Severity Index (PDSI) for 1900 to 2002. The time series (below) accounts for most of the trend in PDSI. IPCC AR4 Processes in Climate Models • Radiative transfer: solar & terrestrial • phase transition of water • Convective mixing • cloud microphysics • Evapotranspirat’ n • Movement of heat and water in soils Climate Feedbacks Evaporation from ocean, Increase water vapor in atm Enhance greenhouse effect Warming Increase cloud cover; Decrease absorption of solar energy Decrease snow cover; Decrease reflectivity of surface Increase absorption of solar energy Attribution • are observed changes consistent with expected responses to forcings inconsistent with alternative explanations IPCC AR4 Observations Climate model: All forcing Climate model: Solar+volcanic only Projections of Climate Change IPCC AR4 Projections of Climate Change greatest over land & at most high N latitudes and least over the South. Ocean & parts of the N Atlantic Ocean IPCC AR4 Melting glaciers on Greenland: accelerating warming Jay Zwally Stern Review 2006 Strong action is needed urgently Climate Change: From Global Predictions to Local Action Mathematical Sciences Research Institute April 11 2007
