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First Users’ Workshop Welcome! Workshop Goals • Introduce initial group of users to NCARCCAP • Provide opportunity of interaction between modelers and users to: – Better understand user needs – Improve quality of products provided – Build a user website that best responds to user needs • Build NARCCAP User Community Introduction to NARCCAP and the Use of High-resolution Modeling L. O. Mearns Institute for the Study of Society and Environment National Center for Atmospheric Research First NARCCAP Users’ Meeting February 14, 2008 Elevation (meters) 2500 2250 2000 1750 1500 1250 1000 750 500 250 0 -250 NCAR CSM Topography 2.8 deg. by 2.8 deg. RegCM Topography 0.5 deg. by 0.5 deg. Elevation (meters) 3000 2750 2500 2250 2000 1750 1500 1250 1000 750 500 250 0 Regional Modeling Strategy Nested regional modeling technique • Global model provides: – initial conditions – soil moisture, sea surface temperatures, sea ice – lateral meteorological conditions (temperature, pressure, humidity) every 6-8 hours. – Large scale response to forcing (100s kms) • Regional model provides finer scale (10s km) response Physical Contexts for Regional Modeling • Regions with small irregular land masses (e.g., the Caribbean) • Complex topography (mountains) • Complex coastlines (e.g., Italy) • Heterogeneous landscapes Now that we can have more regional detail, what difference does it make in any given impacts assessment or adaptation study? What is the added value? Do we have more confidence in the more detailed results? Global and Regional Simulations of Snowpack GCM under-predicted and misplaced snow Regional Simulation Global Simulation Use of Regional Climate Model Results for Impacts Assessments • Agriculture: Brown et al., 2000 (Great Plains – U.S.) Guereña et al., 2001 (Spain) Mearns et al., 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2003, 2004, 2005 (Great Plains, Southeast, and continental US, N. A.) Carbone et al., Doherty et al., Tsvetsinskaya et al., 2003 (Southeast US) Easterling et al., 2001, 2003 (Great Plains, Southeast) Thomson et al., 2001 (U.S. Pacific Northwest) Olesen et al., 2007; Fronzek and Carter, 2007; Mínguez et al., 2007 (Europe) Use of RCM Results for Impacts Assessments 2 • Water Resources: Leung and Wigmosta, 1999 (US Pacific Northwest) Stone et al., 2001, 2003 (Missouri River Basin) Arnell et al., 2003 (Southern Africa) Miller et al., 2003 (California) Wood et al., 2004 (Pacific Northwest) Graham et al., 2007 (Europe) • Forest Fires: Wotton et al., 1998 (Canada – Boreal Forest) • Human Health: New York City Health Project (Hogrefe et al., 2005) Halsnæs et al., 2007 (Europe) New York Climate and Health Project MM5 Tests with 12 and 4 km Resolution Hogrefe et al., 2005 Putting spatial resolution in the context of other uncertainties • Must consider the other major uncertainties regarding future climate in addition to the issue of spatial scale – what is the relative importance of uncertainty due to spatial scale? • These include: – Specifying alternative future emissions of ghgs and aerosols – Modeling the global climate response to the forcings (i.e., differences among GCMs) Programs Exploring Multiple Uncertainties • PRUDENCE - over Europe • ENSEMBLES – over Europe • NARCCAP – over North America • CREAS: Cenários REgionais de Mudança de Clima para América do Sul (Regional Climate Change Scenarios for South America) PRUDENCE • European domain • 8-10 RCMs • 2 AOGCMs (HadCM3, ECHAM4) but also time slice experiments • 2 emissions scenarios (A2, B2) • Most RCMs used only one driving model, HadAM3H, with A2 emissions scenario • 1961-90 and 2071-2100 The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) Initiated in FY06, it is an international program that will serve the climate scenario needs of the United States, Canada, and northern Mexico. •Exploration of multiple uncertainties in regional model and global climate model regional projections. •Development of multiple high resolution regional climate scenarios for use in impacts assessments. •Further evaluation of regional model performance over North America. •Exploration of some remaining uncertainties in regional climate modeling (e.g., importance of compatibility of physics in nesting and nested models). •Program has been funded by NOAA-OGP, NSF, DOE – 3-4-year program www.narccap.ucar.edu NARCCAP - Participants Linda O. Mearns, National Center for Atmospheric Research Ray Arritt, Iowa State, Dave Bader, LLNL; Sébastien Biner, Ouranos; Erasmo Buono, Hadley Centre; Daniel Caya, Ouranos; Phil Duffy, LLNL; Filippo Giorgi, Abdus Salam ICTP; William Gutowski, Iowa State; Isaac Held, GFDL; Richard Jones, Hadley Centre; René Laprise, UQAM; Ruby Leung, PNNL; Don Middleton, NCAR; Ana Nuñes, Scripps; Doug Nychka, NCAR; John Roads, Scripps, Steve Sain, NCAR, Lisa Sloan, Mark Snyder, UC Santa Cruz; Ron Stouffer, GFDL; Gene Takle, Iowa State; Phil Rasch, Tom Wigley, NCAR NARCCAP Domain Organization of Program • Phase I: 25-year simulations using NCEP boundary conditions (1979—2004) • Phase IIa: RCM runs (50 km res.) nested in AOGCMs current and future • Phase IIb: Time-slice experiments at 50 km res. (GFDL AM2.1 and NCAR CAM3) – current and future • Opportunity for double nesting (over specific regions) to include participation of other RCM groups (e.g., for NOAA OGP RISAs, CEC, New York Climate and Health Project) • Scenario formation and provision to impacts community (led by NCAR) Phase I • All RCMs have completed the reanalysis-driven runs. • Configuration: – common North America domain (some differences due to horizontal coordinates) – horizontal grid spacing 50 km – boundary data from NCEP/DOE Reanalysis 2 – boundaries, SST and sea ice updated every 6 hours NARCCAP PLAN – Phase II A2 Emissions Scenario GFDL Time slice 50 km GFDL Iowa State/ PNNL HADCM3 CCSM link to European Prudence 1971-2000 current MM5 CGCM3 Provide boundary conditions CAM3 Time slice 50km 2040-2070 future RegCM3 CRCM HADRM3 RSM WRF UC Santa Cruz ICTP Quebec, Ouranos Hadley Centre Scripps NCAR/ PNNL Global Time Slice / RCM Comparison at same resolution (50km) A2 Emissions Scenario GFDL CCSM AOGCM Six RCMS 50 km GFDL Time slice 50 km compare compare CAM3 Time slice 50km GCM-RCM Matrix GFDL CGCM3 MM5 RegCM3 CRCM X PRECIS X RSM X WRF X CAM3 GFDL/AM2. HADCM3 CCSM X X1 X X1 X X X1 X X1 X X1 X X 1 = chosen first GCM NARCCAP Project Timeline Current 1 Future climate 1 Project Start Phase 1 1/06 9/07 Current and Future 2 AOGCM Boundaries available 12/07 6/08 1/08 Time slices 12/08 The NARCCAP User Community Three user groups: • Further dynamical or statistical downscaling • Regional analysis of NARCCAP results • Use results as scenarios for impacts studies www.narccap.ucar.edu Workshop Plan • • • • • • • • • User introductions NARCCAP in broader context and AOGCMs Time slice experiments (atmospheric models) RCMs Results of Phase I – overview User discussions Data Archiving, Practicum, GIS Uncertainty Analysis In depth user group discussions End