* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Download AMS_congressional
Kyoto Protocol wikipedia , lookup
Emissions trading wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on humans wikipedia , lookup
General circulation model wikipedia , lookup
Climate change, industry and society wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and agriculture wikipedia , lookup
Climate engineering wikipedia , lookup
Scientific opinion on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Surveys of scientists' views on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in Tuvalu wikipedia , lookup
Solar radiation management wikipedia , lookup
Climate governance wikipedia , lookup
Climate change adaptation wikipedia , lookup
Global warming wikipedia , lookup
Citizens' Climate Lobby wikipedia , lookup
Physical impacts of climate change wikipedia , lookup
Public opinion on global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and poverty wikipedia , lookup
Views on the Kyoto Protocol wikipedia , lookup
Economics of global warming wikipedia , lookup
German Climate Action Plan 2050 wikipedia , lookup
2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference wikipedia , lookup
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in the United States wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in New Zealand wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on Australia wikipedia , lookup
Climate change feedback wikipedia , lookup
Climate change mitigation wikipedia , lookup
Carbon governance in England wikipedia , lookup
United Nations Climate Change conference wikipedia , lookup
Decarbonisation measures in proposed UK electricity market reform wikipedia , lookup
Economics of climate change mitigation wikipedia , lookup
Low-carbon economy wikipedia , lookup
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report wikipedia , lookup
Politics of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme wikipedia , lookup
Mitigation of global warming in Australia wikipedia , lookup
Confronting the Climate-Energy Challenge Daniel Schrag Harvard University [email protected] QuickTime™ and a TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor are needed to see this picture. ECONOMY ENERGY CLIMATE SECURITY ENVIRONMENT The Keeling Curve of CO2 in the atmosphere measured at Mauna Loa, Hawaii 2040 to 2060 Atmospheric CO2 has never been higher than 300 ppm in the last 650,000 years (perhaps not in the last 35 million years) Atmospheric CO2 (ppmv) 2007 300 275 250 225 200 175 150 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 Age (years before present) 200,000 100,000 0 EOCENE (55 to 36 million years ago): The last time in Earth history when atmospheric CO2 was above 500 ppm. The Eocene climate was warm, even at high latitudes: -palm trees flourished in Wyoming -crocodiles lived in the Arctic -Antarctica was a coniferous forest -deep ocean temperature was 12°C (today it is ~2°C) -sea level was at least 100 meters higher than today We are performing an experiment at a planetary scale that hasn’t been done for millions of years. No one knows exactly what is going to happen. There will be surprises.... DROUGHTS HEAT WAVES FLOODS STORMS SEA LEVEL RISE MOUNTAIN SNOWMELT WINNERS AND LOSERS QuickTime™ and a TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor are needed to see this picture. QuickTime™ and a TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor are needed to see this picture. QuickTime™ and a TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor are needed to see this picture. K. Emanuel, Nature, 2005. normalized power dissipation index/ sea surface temperature index Power dissipation by hurricanes tracks sea surface temperatures. The change was twice as large as predicted by theory. QuickTime™ and a decompressor are needed to see this picture. Annual Minimum Sea Ice, 1979 - 2007 TIPPING POINTS: instabilities in the Earth system that can change rapidly once thresholds are crossed. ice sheets carbon release from tundra (tropical forests) QuickTime™ and a TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor are needed to see this picture. CLIMATE CHANGE: Permafrost and the Global Carbon Budget Sergey A. Zimov, Edward A. G. Schuur, F. Stuart Chapin III Science 16 June 2006: Vol. 312. no. 5780, pp. 1612 - 1613 yedoma: soil composed of frozen loess with very high organic carbon content (2 to 3 % average) If there is >500 Gt C stored as organic carbon in permafrost in Siberia, how long will it take to ferment/oxidize as the permafrost regions warm? Are the polar ice sheets vulnerable? Quic kTime™ and a TIFF (Unc ompres sed) dec ompres sor are needed to see this pic ture. West Antarctica: 6 meters sea level equivalent Greenland: 7 meters sea level equivalent We do not know how long it will take to melt these massive ice sheets. 1000 years? 500 years? 200 years? Rate of Ice volume change: All Greenland: -238 km3/yr South Greenland: -164 km3/yr North Greenland: -65 km3/yr 73.250 N -238 km3/yr = 0.5 mm/yr sea level rise What is the solution? How do we keep CO2 below a dangerous level? • What level is dangerous? • We must act quickly because of long lifetime of CO2 in the atmosphere and the long lifetime of energy capital investments, particularly in China and other rapidly developing countries. • ADAPTATION and MITIGATION are essential Adaptation and Mitigation Substantial climate change is unavoidable. Therefore, adaptation is essential. Adaptation will not be cheap. QuickTime™ and a TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor are needed to see this picture. QuickTime™ and a TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor are needed to see this picture. QuickTime™ and a TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor are needed to see this picture. QuickTime™ and a TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor are needed to see this picture. Adaptation and Mitigation Substantial climate change is unavoidable. Therefore, adaptation is essential. Adaptation will not be cheap. Without mitigation, adaptation becomes impossible… EJ/year 150 years ofWorld energyEnergy growth 1850-2000 based mainly on fossil fuels brought us to today’s dilemma 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 Gas Oil Coal Nuclear Hydro + Biomass Hydro+ means hydropower plus other renewables besides biomass Energy supply grew 20-fold between 1850 and 2000. Fossil-fuel use Year grew 140-fold. 5 Recent emissions Trajectory of Global Fossil Fuel Emissions 0 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 -1 C/y) (Gt COCO ) Emissions (GtC y 2 emissions 2 10 9 8 7 Actual emissions: CDIAC Actual emissions: EIA 450ppm stabilisation 650ppm stabilisation A1FI A1B A1T A2 B1 B2 50-year constant growth rates 2006 2005 to 2050 B1 1.1%, A1B 1.7%, A2 1.8% A1FI 2.4% Observed 6 2000-2006 3.3% 5 1990 2100 1995 2000 Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS 2005 2010 Carbon content in gigatonnes (Gt) of fossil fuel proven reserves and annual production (2005) COAL Reserves U.S. Russia China India Australia Middle East Total World 184.0 117.1 85.4 69.0 58.6 0.3 678.2 PETROLEUM Production 0.64 0.15 1.24 0.22 0.23 0.00 3.23 Reserves 3.6 9.0 1.9 0.7 0.5 90.2 145.8 Production 0.30 0.42 0.16 0.03 0.02 1.11 3.59 NATURAL GAS Reserves Production 3.0 26.2 1.3 0.6 1.4 39.4 98.4 0.29 0.33 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.16 1.51 Man-made Greenhouse Gas Emissions (2006E)* Nitrous Halocarbons Oxide 2% 9% Methane 15% CO2 Emissions Sources (2006E)** Residential & Other Fuel Combustion 11% Industrial Processes 4% Transportation 23% CO2 Open Slide Master > Insert Tracking Code 74% 39.8 Gigatonnes CO2 Equivalent† Electricity & Cogeneration 44% Manufacturing & Construction 18% 29.5 Gigatonnes CO2 *Estimated from 2000 anchor data **Estimated from 2003 anchor data **Non-CO2 emissions are expressed in CO2 equivalents using 100-year global warming potentials found in the IPCC Second Assessment Report Source: EIA, International Energy Agency (IEA), Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), World Resources Institute and AllianceBernstein AllianceBernstein Most Emissions Come from Relatively Few Sources In 2005, 150 stationary sources emitted as much CO2 as the global car fleet Megatonnes CO2 60 50 40 30 20 Open Slide Master > Insert Tracking Code 10 0 150 Source: IEA and AllianceBernstein AllianceBernstein Most Emissions Come from Relatively Few Sources In 2005, 150 stationary sources emitted as much CO2 as the global car fleet Megatonnes CO2 60 50 The largest 1,000 stationary sources account for 31% of global CO2 emissions 40 260 are in the US and 240 are in China 30 875 are power-generating plants 20 Open Slide Master > Insert Tracking Code 10 0 1000 150 Source: IEA and AllianceBernstein AllianceBernstein Most Emissions Come from Relatively Few Sources In 2005, 150 stationary sources emitted as much CO2 as the global car fleet Megatonnes CO2 60 50 The largest 1,000 stationary sources account for 31% of global CO2 emissions 40 260 are in the US and 240 are in China 30 Open Slide Master > Insert Tracking Code 875 are power-generating plants 20 Fewer than 8,000 stationary sources emit 50% of man-made CO2 10 0 2000 1000 150 Source: IEA and AllianceBernstein AllianceBernstein Price of Electricity Tends to Drive Efficiency (GNP$/kWh) High 6 Efficiency 5 Denmark UK Japan 4 US Open Slide Master > Insert Tracking Code 3 2 Norway 1 India Low 0 Efficiency 0.00 Belgium China 0.05 0.10 Low Price Data from 2000 Source: EIA, World Bank and AllianceBernstein 0.15 0.20 0.25 High Price ($/kWh) AllianceBernstein Regulation Can Also Drive Efficiency (kWh) 14,000 Electricity Consumption per Capita United States 12,000 10,000 California 8,000 6,000 Western Europe Open Slide Master > Insert Tracking Code 4,000 2,000 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2004 Source: California Energy Commission, California Public Utilities Commission, European Union and US Department of Energy AllianceBernstein What if scientists are wrong and climate change happens faster than we expect? What would we do if Greenland or West Antarctica started to rapidly collapse? QuickTime™ and a TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor are needed to see this picture. From D.W. Keith, Geoengineering. Nature 409, 420 (2001). Climate Engineering: some questions How do we do it? What does it do to the climate system? What might go wrong? Does it postpone the need to reduce CO2 emissions? Will it postpone the reduction of CO2 emissions? Who controls it? When should we start (if at all)? What do we need to know before we start?