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Confronting the Climate-Energy
Challenge
Daniel Schrag
Harvard University
[email protected]
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ECONOMY
ENERGY
CLIMATE
SECURITY
ENVIRONMENT
The Keeling Curve of CO2 in the
atmosphere measured at Mauna Loa, Hawaii
2040 to 2060
Atmospheric CO2 has never been higher
than 300 ppm in the last 650,000 years
(perhaps not in the last 35 million years)
Atmospheric CO2 (ppmv)
2007
300
275
250
225
200
175
150
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
Age (years before present)
200,000
100,000
0
EOCENE (55 to 36 million years ago): The last time in
Earth history when atmospheric CO2 was above 500 ppm.
The Eocene climate was warm, even at high latitudes:
-palm trees flourished in Wyoming
-crocodiles lived in the Arctic
-Antarctica was a coniferous forest
-deep ocean temperature was 12°C (today it is ~2°C)
-sea level was at least 100 meters higher than today
We are performing an experiment at a
planetary scale that hasn’t been done for
millions of years.
No one knows exactly what is going to happen.
There will be surprises....
DROUGHTS
HEAT WAVES
FLOODS
STORMS
SEA LEVEL RISE
MOUNTAIN SNOWMELT
WINNERS AND LOSERS
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K. Emanuel, Nature, 2005.
normalized power dissipation index/
sea surface temperature index
Power dissipation by hurricanes tracks sea surface temperatures.
The change was twice as large as predicted by theory.
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Annual Minimum Sea Ice, 1979 - 2007
TIPPING POINTS: instabilities in the
Earth system that can change rapidly
once thresholds are crossed.
ice sheets
carbon release from tundra (tropical forests)
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CLIMATE CHANGE:
Permafrost and the Global Carbon Budget
Sergey A. Zimov, Edward A. G. Schuur, F. Stuart Chapin III
Science 16 June 2006: Vol. 312. no. 5780, pp. 1612 - 1613
yedoma: soil composed of frozen loess with very high organic
carbon content (2 to 3 % average)
If there is >500 Gt C stored as organic carbon in permafrost
in Siberia, how long will it take to ferment/oxidize as the
permafrost regions warm?
Are the polar ice sheets vulnerable?
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West Antarctica: 6 meters sea level equivalent
Greenland: 7 meters sea level equivalent
We do not know how long it will take to melt these
massive ice sheets. 1000 years? 500 years? 200 years?
Rate of Ice volume change:
All Greenland:
-238 km3/yr
South Greenland: -164 km3/yr
North Greenland:
-65 km3/yr
73.250 N
-238 km3/yr = 0.5 mm/yr sea level rise
What is the solution? How do we keep
CO2 below a dangerous level?
• What level is dangerous?
• We must act quickly because of long lifetime of
CO2 in the atmosphere and the long lifetime
of energy capital investments, particularly in
China and other rapidly developing countries.
• ADAPTATION and MITIGATION are essential
Adaptation and Mitigation
Substantial climate change is unavoidable.
Therefore, adaptation is essential.
Adaptation will not be cheap.
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Adaptation and Mitigation
Substantial climate change is unavoidable.
Therefore, adaptation is essential.
Adaptation will not be cheap.
Without mitigation, adaptation
becomes impossible…
EJ/year
150 years ofWorld
energyEnergy
growth 1850-2000
based mainly on
fossil fuels brought us to today’s dilemma
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000
Gas
Oil
Coal
Nuclear
Hydro +
Biomass
Hydro+ means
hydropower plus
other renewables
besides biomass
Energy supply grew 20-fold between 1850 and 2000. Fossil-fuel use
Year
grew 140-fold.
5
Recent
emissions
Trajectory
of
Global
Fossil
Fuel Emissions
0
1850
1900
1950
2000
2050
-1
C/y)
(Gt
COCO
)
Emissions
(GtC
y
2 emissions
2
10
9
8
7
Actual emissions: CDIAC
Actual emissions: EIA
450ppm stabilisation
650ppm stabilisation
A1FI
A1B
A1T
A2
B1
B2
50-year
constant
growth rates
2006
2005
to 2050
B1
1.1%,
A1B
1.7%,
A2
1.8%
A1FI 2.4%
Observed
6
2000-2006
3.3%
5
1990
2100
1995
2000
Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS
2005
2010
Carbon content in gigatonnes (Gt) of fossil fuel
proven reserves and annual production (2005)
COAL
Reserves
U.S.
Russia
China
India
Australia
Middle East
Total World
184.0
117.1
85.4
69.0
58.6
0.3
678.2
PETROLEUM
Production
0.64
0.15
1.24
0.22
0.23
0.00
3.23
Reserves
3.6
9.0
1.9
0.7
0.5
90.2
145.8
Production
0.30
0.42
0.16
0.03
0.02
1.11
3.59
NATURAL GAS
Reserves
Production
3.0
26.2
1.3
0.6
1.4
39.4
98.4
0.29
0.33
0.03
0.02
0.02
0.16
1.51
Man-made Greenhouse Gas
Emissions (2006E)*
Nitrous
Halocarbons
Oxide
2%
9%
Methane
15%
CO2 Emissions Sources
(2006E)**
Residential & Other
Fuel Combustion
11%
Industrial
Processes
4%
Transportation
23%
CO2
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74%
39.8 Gigatonnes CO2 Equivalent†
Electricity &
Cogeneration
44%
Manufacturing
& Construction
18%
29.5 Gigatonnes CO2
*Estimated from 2000 anchor data
**Estimated from 2003 anchor data
**Non-CO2 emissions are expressed in CO2 equivalents using 100-year global warming potentials found in the IPCC Second Assessment Report
Source: EIA, International Energy Agency (IEA), Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), World Resources Institute and AllianceBernstein
AllianceBernstein
Most Emissions Come from Relatively Few Sources
 In 2005, 150 stationary sources emitted as much
CO2 as the global car fleet
Megatonnes
CO2
60
50
40
30
20
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10
0
150
Source: IEA and AllianceBernstein
AllianceBernstein
Most Emissions Come from Relatively Few Sources
 In 2005, 150 stationary sources emitted as much
CO2 as the global car fleet
Megatonnes
CO2
60
50
 The largest 1,000 stationary sources account for
31% of global CO2 emissions
40
 260 are in the US and 240 are in China
30
 875 are power-generating plants
20
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10
0
1000
150
Source: IEA and AllianceBernstein
AllianceBernstein
Most Emissions Come from Relatively Few Sources
 In 2005, 150 stationary sources emitted as much
CO2 as the global car fleet
Megatonnes
CO2
60
50
 The largest 1,000 stationary sources account for
31% of global CO2 emissions
40
 260 are in the US and 240 are in China
30
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 875 are power-generating plants
20
 Fewer than 8,000 stationary sources emit 50%
of man-made CO2
10
0
2000
1000
150
Source: IEA and AllianceBernstein
AllianceBernstein
Price of Electricity Tends to Drive Efficiency
(GNP$/kWh)
High 6
Efficiency
5
Denmark
UK
Japan
4
US
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3
2
Norway
1
India
Low
0
Efficiency
0.00
Belgium
China
0.05
0.10
Low Price
Data from 2000
Source: EIA, World Bank and AllianceBernstein
0.15
0.20
0.25
High Price
($/kWh)
AllianceBernstein
Regulation Can Also Drive Efficiency
(kWh)
14,000
Electricity Consumption per Capita
United States
12,000
10,000
California
8,000
6,000
Western Europe
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4,000
2,000
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2004
Source: California Energy Commission, California Public Utilities Commission, European Union and US Department of Energy
AllianceBernstein
What if scientists are wrong and climate
change happens faster than we expect?
What would we do if Greenland or West
Antarctica started to rapidly collapse?
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From D.W. Keith, Geoengineering. Nature 409, 420 (2001).
Climate Engineering: some questions
How do we do it?
What does it do to the climate system?
What might go wrong?
Does it postpone the need to reduce CO2 emissions?
Will it postpone the reduction of CO2 emissions?
Who controls it?
When should we start (if at all)?
What do we need to know before we start?