Download File - Healthy Planet UK

The scale of the climate
challenge
Andrew Watkinson
School of Environmental Sciences
University of East Anglia
[email protected]
A changing climate
Arctic
Europe
Asia
N America
Australasia
S America
Antarctica
Source Pages 2K Consortium 2013; Marcott et al 2013
A changing climate
Source: IPCC WGI 2013
Fossil fuel emissions
• Global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel burning decreased by
1.3% in 2009
• Emissions increased by more than 3% in 2010, approaching
the high growth rates of 2000 to 2008
• Growth in emissions closely follows growth in GDP
2009
CO2 emissions PgC/yr
Global financial crisis
Asian financial crisis
Collapse of FSU
US savings and
loan crisis
USA −6.9%
UK −8.6%
Germany −7%
Japan −11.8%
Russia −8.4%
Oil crisis
China +8%
India +6.2%
South Korea +1.4%
Source: Friedlinstein et al 2010, Peters et al 2012
Action: reducing emissions
Source
• Energy (61.3%)
• Land use (18.2%)
• Industrial
processes (3.4%)
• Agriculture (13.5%)
• Waste (3.6%)
Examples of global emission pathways where cumulative CO2 emissions equal
750 Gt during the time period 2010-2050 (1 Gt C = 3.67 Gt CO2). At this level,
there is a 67% probability of limiting global warming to a maximum of 2°C.
Targeting demand
Light
Electricity
Consumption
Transmission
10
50
54
Powerstation
120
Fuel
Production,
Extraction
&Transport
133
Source: Kevin Anderson
Managing demand: behaviour
Driving behaviour
Traffic flow
Total distance
Source: McKinsey and Co. 2009
Difficult choices
Source: UK Household Longitudinal Study (n=39987)
Carbon hot spots
Source: NHS Sustainable Development Unit
Reducing UK emissions
Other
Transport
Services
Residential
Industry
Electricity
Source: Climate Change Committee (2010) The Fourth Carbon Budget
Transforming the energy supply
Source: Stockholm Environment Institute 2009
Progress?
UK’s Global Emissions
Health and Social Care
England Carbon Footprint
Source: Barrett et al 2013: Climate Policy
Can we do it?
•
•
•
•
Global CO2 emissions continue to grow rapidly (+3% p.a.)
2 ºC requires an early peak and sustained reductions
Need to target both supply and demand
Technology and economic feasibility will be increased by
• Early and broadly based international mitigation action
• Limiting growth in energy demand through behavioural
change and efficiency
• Utilising a portfolio of technologies with R&D in key
areas, e.g. CCS, vehicles, advanced fuels, storage
• Availability of affordable negative emissions
technologies
• Action on non-CO2 greenhouse gases such as nitrous
oxide
And if we can’t?
Geoengineering options
Giant reflectors
in orbit
Chemicals to
save ozone
Cloud
seeding
Aerosols in
stratosphere
Grow trees
GM crops
Iron
fertilisation in
sea
Greening
deserts
Pump liquid
CO2 into
deep sea
Pump liquid
CO2 into
rock
Source: IGBP 2009
The adaptation agenda
UKCP09
Climate Change
Risk Assessment
Source: DEFRA
Climate Change Risk Assessment
• The global climate is changing and
warming will continue over the next
century
• The UK is already vulnerable to
extreme weather, including flooding and
heatwaves
• Flood risk is projected to increase
significantly across the UK
• UK water resources are projected to
come under increased pressure
• Potentially, there are health benefits as
well as threats related to climate
change, affecting the most vulnerable
groups in our society
• Sensitive ecosystems are likely to come
under increasing pressure
• etc
What’s in the flood plain?
The Flood Plain and Index of Multiple Deprivation 2010
Infrastructure already at risk
Significant chance
Moderate chance
Low chance
Source: Environment Agency
Reducing the probability
Increasing resilience
Adaptation to flooding
• Exposure to flooding. The Government and
local authorities should ensure more robust
and transparent implementation of planning
policy in relation to development in areas at
risk of flooding.
• Protecting existing properties from
flooding. The Government should support
sustained and increased investment in flood
defences from public or private sources; or in
the absence of this identify ways to manage
the social and economic consequences of
more frequent flooding.
Enabling adaptation
Plan for the longer
term within risk
framework
Clarify responsibilities at
local and national levels
Join up thinking: integrated
management
Raise public
awareness through
education
Regulate
management
Improve monitoring
and evidence base
Share best practice
Incentivise management to
reduce the risk
After Tompkins et al 2005
What are we adapting to?
Aim for 2°C and plan for 4 °C
• We are aiming for 4°C and planning for 2 °C
• Adaptation is currently generally viewed as the means of continuing what we
are doing
• Concerned with climate proofing existing practices in which the objectives
remain unchanged
• The need for transformational as opposed to continuous change is largely
unaddressed
• There is a real danger of maladaptation
– What is appropriate for a 2 °C may be inappropriate (and costly) for a 4 °C world
– Incremental adaptation may prevent more transformative measures
Summary
Climate change and impacts
Mitigation
Adaptation