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Global Climate Change Overview o Introduction to Climate Change • o Effects of Climate Change • • • • • o Causes of Global Climate Change Melting Ice and Rising Sea Level Changes in Precipitation Patterns Effects on Organisms Effects on Human Health Effects on Agriculture Dealing with Global Climate Change To Start Off o Where does all the data for Climate Change come from? • IPCC – Inter-Governmental Panel for Climate Change (ALL scientists from All countries who are studying CC) Myth versus Fact • • • MYTH: This IS NOT a Democrat/Republican debate FACT: This problem is REAL and IS already affecting Humans and ALL LIVING THINGS on this planet that have the RIGHT to exist without these Human induced consequences! FACT: We can curtail the long-term consequences which WILL stem from our current INACTION Introduction to Climate Change- Mean Annual Global Temperature 1960-2005 Climate Change Terminology o Greenhouse Gas • • o Positive Feedback • o Change in some condition triggers a response that intensifies the changed condition Infrared Radiation • o Gas that absorbs infrared radiation Ex: Carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, chlorofluorocarbons and tropospheric ozone Radiation that has a wavelength that is longer than that of visible light, but shorter than that of radio waves Greenhouse Effect • Increase of heat in a system where energy enters (often as light), is absorbed as heat, and released sometime later Introduction to Climate Change o Evidence for Climate Change • • o 11 of the 12 years between 1995 and 2006 were among the twelve warmest years since the mid-1800s Phenological spring in N. hemisphere now comes 6 days earlier Warming is not due to natural causes • Human produced greenhouse gases are most plausible explanation WAKE UP AND FREAK OUT LOOK AND LISTEN!!! Causes of Climate Change o Greenhouse gas concentrations increasing Causes of Climate Change o Increased concentration of CO2 (right) • • • Burning fossil fuels in cars, industry and homes Deforestation Burning of forests Departures in temperature (°C) from the 1961-1990 average Global instrumental temperature record 5 Warmest years so far: 1. 2005 2. 1998 (El Niño year) 3. 2002 4. 2003 5. 2004 CO2 concentration after 50 years of unrestricted fossil fuel burning (600 ppmv) Present CO2 concentration (381 ppmv) 270 240 210 180 Temp. Proxy CO2 (ppmv) 300 800 600 400 200 Thousands of Years Before Present Petit et al., 1999; Siegenthaler et al., 2005; EPICA Community members, 2004 0 IPCC SRES Emission Scenarios F. Joos, 1999 800 A1 Carbon Dioxide Concentration (ppmv) A2 B1 B2 600 400 200 1950 2000 2050 2100 Atmospheric Stabilization Emission Paths Stabilizing at 2xCO2 (green curve) is by no means “safe”, but achieving this much will be very difficult and more might not be possible. GFDL model simulations of Surface Air Warming (°F) 2xCO2 4xCO2 Northern hemisphere midcontinent average warming is 15-25°F! ➙ This is a roasted world. Signs that global warming is underway o o o o o o o Sea level rise • by thermal expansion AND ice melt Sea ice melting (Arctic and Antarctic) Glaciers melting worldwide Arctic and Antarctic Peninsula heating up fastest Melting on ice sheets is accelerating More severe weather (droughts, floods, storms, heat waves, hard freezes, etc.) Bottom line: • These changes do not fit the natural patterns unless we add the effects of increased GHGs Greenhouse Effect Greenhouse Gasses o Let sunlight in • o Earth heats up and radiates heat • o short wavelengths longer wavelengths GHGs • don’t let Earth’s heat out Increased Greenhouse Gasses Earth’s “cooling” system is “clogged” o Net effect: • Earth warms to a temperature where its radiation is shorter wavelengths and can escape Climate Models o Climate affected by: • o o o winds, clouds, ocean currents, and albedo Used to explore past climate events Advanced models can project future warming events Models are only as good as the data and law used to program them • They have limitations Climate Models Effects of Global Climate ChangeMelting Ice and Rising Sea Levels o Sea level rise caused in 2 ways • Thermal Expansion • • Melting of land ice • o Water expands as it warms Retreat of glacier and thinning of ice at the poles Melting has positive feedback • Increased melting decreases ice, which decreases albedo leading to further warming Melting Ice and Rising Sea Levels 1957 1998 McCarty Glacier, Alaska 24 Muir and Riggs Glaciers 25 Case-In-Point Impacts in Fragile Areas o o Eskimo Inuit live traditional life dictated by freezing climate Climate change is altering their existence • • • Wildlife are smaller or displaced Reduced snow cover and shorter river ice seasons Thawing of permafrost (right) Effects of Global Climate ChangeChanging Precipitation Patterns o Some areas will get more water, some areas will have greater droughts • Ex: Hurricanes will likely get stronger Effects of Global Climate ChangeEffects on Organisms o Zooplankton in parts of California Current have decreased by 80% since 1951 • o Decline in krill around Antarctica • o o Effecting entire food chain Caused decrease in penguin populations Species have shifted their geographic range Migrating birds are returning to summer homes earlier • Food is not available at this time Effects on Organisms - Coral Reefs o Coral reefs can be bleached (right) due to increase in water temperature • Affects coral symbiotes and makes them more susceptible to diseases to which they would otherwise be immune Effects of Global Climate Change o Ocean as CO2 sink - excess CO2 is starting to harm ocean life 31 This is very “inconvenient” Effect on Organisms - Vegetation Beech Tree Range Effects on Human Health o Increased number of heat-related illnesses and deaths Effects on Agriculture o Difficult to anticipate • o o o o Productivity will increase in some areas and decrease in others Rise in sea level will inundate flood plains and river valleys (lush farmland) Effect on pests is unknown Warmer temperatures will decrease soil moisture- requiring more irrigation Location (i.e. elevation and altitude) where certain crops can be grown may have to change International Implications of Climate Change o Developed vs. Developing countries • • Differing selfinterests Differing ability to meet the challenges of climate change Dealing with Global Climate Change o To avoid the worst of climate change, CO2 levels must be stabilized at 550ppm • o 50% higher than current levels Two ways to attempt to manage climate change • Mitigation • • Focuses on limiting greenhouse gas emissions to moderate global climate change Adaptation • Focuses on learning to live with to the environmental changes and societal consequences brought about by global climate change Dealing with Global Climate Change- Relationship Between Mitigation and Adaptation Dealing with Global Climate ChangeMitigation o o o o Locate/invent alternative fuels to fossil fuels Increase efficiency of cars and trucks Sequestering carbon before it is emitted Plant and Maintain trees to naturally sequester carbon Dealing with Global Climate ChangeAdaptation o o o Rising sea levels and coastal populations • Move inland • Construct dikes and levees Adapt to shifting agricultural zones NYC sewer line International Efforts to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emission o Kyoto Protocol • • • • Legally binding Provides operational rules on reducing greenhouse gases US has not signed it- it will be difficult to implement without US backing Copenhagen