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A Brief History, and Looking Ahead
Dr Benito Müller
Director, ECBI and Head of Fellowship Programme
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The United Nations Climate Change Regime
The United Nations Climate Change Regime
• Adopted at the Rio Earth Summit 1992
• Ratified by 189 out of 193 UN member countries
• Entry-into-force 24 March 1994
Kyoto Protocol
• Adopted at COP3 in Kyoto 11 December 1997
• Ratified by 152 out of 193 UN member countries
• Entry-into-force 16 February 2005
• Bundle of Greenhouse Gases (Annex A)
• Quantified Emission Reduction Targets (Annex B)
• Industrialised and economies in transition (Annex I)
• Flexibility Mechanisms: International Emission Trading, ‘Joint Implementation’ (JI),
‘Clean Development Mechanism (CDM
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UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
The United Nations Climate Change Regime
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The United Nations Climate Change Regime
18/11/2004: 55 %
Poland
Japan
25%
20%
15%
Romania
0%
60%
55%
50%
30%
10%
5%
01/12/97
01/06/98
01/12/98
01/06/99
01/12/99
01/06/00
01/12/00
01/06/01
01/12/01
01/06/02
01/12/02
01/06/03
01/12/03
01/06/04
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Canada
45%
40%
35%
Russia
23/05/2002: 55 Parties
65%
The Cabinet endorsed the Kyoto Protocol on Thursday, making international
implementation of one of the most far-reaching and controversial environmental
initiatives a near certainty.
"The fate of the Kyoto Protocol depends on Russia. If we ... rejected ratification,
we would be the ones to blame," Deputy Foreign Minister Yury Fedotov told the
Cabinet meeting.
Sadly, Kyoto lives
Tuesday, August 24, 2004
Like a masked serial killer in a teenage slasher flick, the Kyoto Protocol will
not die.
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Friday, October 01, 2004
Cabinet Gives Approval to Kyoto Protocol
By Greg Walters and Anatoly Medetsky
Staff Writers
Russia’s Ratification of the Kyoto
Climate Treaty “Historic” Says Kofi
Annan
UNEP News Release 2004/49
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Nairobi, 18 November, 2004 - In a move
underlining the vital links between the
environment and global peace, Russian
Permanent Representative to the UN
Andrey Denisov today formally handed
over the accession papers on ratification
of the Kyoto Protocol to Kofi Annan,
Secretary-General of the United
Nations.
Mr. Annan said in a statement: “I
congratulate President Putin and the
Russian Federation for their leadership
in making it possible for the Protocol to
enter into force – as it will, 90 days
from tomorrow, on 16 February 2005.
This is a historic step forward in the
world’s efforts to combat a truly global
threat. Most important, it ends a long
period of uncertainty.”
‘the importance of [OAPEC] member countries joining the Protocol so as to participate fully in
the meetings of the Conference of Parties, which operates as an assembly for the parties to the
Protocol.
01/01/05
01/02/05
Algeria 16 Feb
01/12/04
Saudi Arabia 31 Jan
UAE 26 Jan 05
01/11/04
Qatar 11 Jan 05
OAPEC Monthly
Bulletin 20 Nov 04
Russia 1 Oct 04
Tunisia 22/01/03
01/10/04
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Kuwait 11 March
OAPEC Monthly Bulletin 20 November 2004
01/03/05
‘post 2012’ or ‘beyond Kyoto’
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Some Recent Developments 1:
Large Developing Countries: The Gleneagles Joint Declaration
The Declaration proposes a new paradigm for international cooperation that must ensure:
• Accessibility and affordability of climate friendly technologies to developing countries
(requiring ‘a concerted effort to address questions related to intellectual property rights)
• Additional financial resources (over and above current ODA) to enable developing countries
to access such technologies
• Encouragement of North-South collaborative research on such technologies.
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Declaration at Gleneagles G8 Summit (6-8 July)
by Brazil China, India, Mexico, South Africa
Large Developing Countries: The Gleneagles Joint Declaration
• ‘the Gleneagles Summit is an opportunity to give stronger impetus to the process of UN
reforms aimed at providing a greater voice to developing countries in UN decision-making, and
to send a positive message on international cooperation.
• ‘the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and its Kyoto
Protocol establish a regime that adequately addresses the economic, social and environmental
aspects of sustainable development.’
• industrialised countries to ‘take the lead in international action to combat climate change by
fully implementing their obligations of reducing emissions and of providing additional financing and
the transfer of cleaner, low emission and cost-effective technologies to developing countries’
• ‘there is an urgent need for the development and financing of policies, measures and mechanisms
to adapt to the inevitable adverse effects of climate change that are being borne mainly by the
poor.’
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Declaration at Gleneagles G8 Summit (6-8 July)
by Brazil China, India, Mexico, South Africa
The United States: The Federal Level
The Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate
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White House Fact Sheet 27 July 2005: The Partnership ‘will focus on voluntary practical
measures taken by these six countries in the Asia-Pacific region to create new investment
opportunities, build local capacity, and remove barriers to the introduction of clean, more
efficient technologies [and] help each country meet nationally designed strategies for
improving energy security, reducing pollution, and addressing the long-term challenge of
climate change.’
‘US unveils alternative plan to Kyoto treaty’ Financial Times,
‘Asia deal on table to counter Kyoto’ Financial Times,
‘US in plan to bypass Kyoto protocol’ The Guardian,
‘Le pacte climatique Asie-Pacifique "supérieur" à Kyoto (Canberra)’ Le Monde
‘Bush startet Alternative zu «Kyoto»’ Neue Zürcher Zeitung,
‘Clima, accordo a sei parallelo a trattato di Kyoto’ Corriere della Sera,
The United States: The State Level
9 States in Plan to Cut Emissions by Power Plants
By ANTHONY DePALMA
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August 24, 2005
Officials in New York and eight other Northeastern states have come to a preliminary agreement to
freeze power plant emissions at their current levels and then reduce them by 10 percent by 2020,
according to a confidential draft proposal.
The regional initiative would set up a market-driven system to control emissions of carbon dioxide,
the main greenhouse gas, from more than 600 electric generators in the nine states. Environmentalists
who support a federal law to control greenhouse gases believe that the model established by the
Northeastern states will be followed by other states, resulting in pressure that could eventually lead to
the enactment of a national law.
California, Washington and Oregon are in the early stages of exploring a regional agreement similar to
the Northeastern plan.
EU Emissions Trading Scheme
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an entity-based domestic cap and trade emissions allowance programme
• Timing:
– three-year mandatory start-up phase from 2005 to 2007
– five-year mandatory Kyoto phase from 2008 to 2012, to be continued.
• Allocation method:
– Member States may auction up to 5% for 2005 to 2007
– Member States may auction up to 10% for 2008 to 2012
• Common allocation criteria:
– transparency, comments by the public, scrutiny by the Commission
• Coverage:
– five major downstream sectors with thresholds
– start with carbon dioxide
• Monitoring:
– In accordance with EU-wide plant level monitoring guidelines
• Currency:
– Allowances, linked to Kyoto Assigned Amount Units and
entitling emission of 1 ton of CO2equivalent
• Sanctions:
– Financial penalty of €40 / €100 per non-surrendered allowance (tonne of CO2)
– Making up for a shortfall in following year
Economics: The Issue of Competitiveness
margina
l cost
increase
price
increas
e
marginal cost
increase
passed on to
customers
Change in
quantity
demanded
Change in
operating
profit
(EBITDA*)
‘Net Value
at stake’
Aluminium
smelting
5
3
66
–6
–31
51
Cement
(base line)
55
14
83
–4
25
1.9
Cement
(competition**)
55
11
66
–8
13
1.9
Cold-rolled
steel
7
3
67
–5
17
4
Sector
* Earnings
Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortisation
base-line case assumes that the UK cement market is largely domestic, which is why a ‘competition’ scenario
was also modelled, largely on the situation in Spain, assuming 30 percent non-EU imports.
** The
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Carbon Trust/Oxera Study: Headline results for Kyoto Period (2008-2012) (%)
The estimated impact of this for the UK utility sector under the Kyoto scenario yields a final position
concerning the EU ETS impact of an increase in profitability (EBITDA) of 63 percent
‘Winning the Battle Against Global Climate Change’
• Inclusion of more sectors, notably aviation, maritime transport and forestry since
deforestation in some regions significantly contributes to rising greenhouse gas
concentrations in the atmosphere.
• A push for innovation in the EU to ensure the development and uptake of new
climate-friendly technologies and the right decisions on long-term investments into
the energy, transport and building infrastructure.
• The continued use of flexible market-based instruments for reducing emissions in
the EU and globally, such as the EU emissions trading scheme.
• Adaptation policies in the EU and globally, which require more efforts to identify
vulnerabilities and to implement measures to increase resilience.
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• Broader international participation in reducing emissions. The EU should
continue to lead multilateral efforts to address climate change, but identify incentives
for other major emitting countries, including developing countries, to come on board.
During 2005, it should explore options for a future regime based on common but
differentiated responsibilities.
Developing Country Commitments
Venezuela on behalf of G77+China, COP8
‘Broadening commitments’: only for Annex I countries
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“We specifically and clearly refuse to open at this time
any dialogue or process or indeed any wording that
could be in any way interpreted as accepting to open
discussions on new commitments on non-Annex I
countries.”
SOG(India)E Conclusions
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• Annex II commitments not met – emissions still rising, transfers
of finance/technology minimal.
• Numerical forecasts of relative or absolute growth in GHG
emissions from models vary widely and hence cannot drive
policies
• However, qualitative insights if replicated by a range of models
are useful
• Low per-capita GHG emissions in India are due to sustainable
lifestyles & not poverty alone
• India is doing enough in mitigation of GHGs. Technological
and Financial barriers to achieving identified energy initiatives
must be removed
SOG(China)E Abstract
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• China is vulnerable to climate change
• China is a developing country with low per capita income.
China’s development, urbanization, growth of population and
high proportion of coal in the energy mix will unavoidably make
its efforts to reduce/limit GHG emissions more difficult without
efficient international technological cooperation.
• China urges the international community to engage in practical
technological cooperation in the future so as to combat climate
change effectively and promote global sustainable development.
EU and China Partnership on
Climate Change
The EU and China today [2 Sept 2005] agreed a Partnership on Climate Change
as one of the major outcomes of the China-EU Summit. The Partnership will
strengthen cooperation and dialogue on climate change and energy between the EU
and China.
•
The Partnership contains two concrete co-operation goals, to be achieved by 2020.
The first is to develop and demonstrate, in China and the EU, advanced “zeroemissions” coal technology. The second cooperation goal is to significantly reduce
the cost of key energy technologies and promote their deployment and
dissemination.
•
The Partnership will also reinforce EU-China cooperation on the Kyoto Protocol’s
Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). It foresees a dialogue on the further
development of this mechanism ‘post 2012’ in combination with an exchange of
information and experience on the use of market-based mechanisms such as the EU
emissions trading scheme.
Reference: MEMO/05/298
Date: 02/09/2005
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•
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Unavoided Climate Impacts
Economic and Insured Losses with Trends. 1950 - 1999
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Great Natural Disasters, Decadal Comparison, Factors 90s : 60s
Number of Disasters Real Economic Losses
Real Insured Losses
3.2
8.6
16.1
People Affected by Weather-related Disasters 1975-2001
As % of Global Population
India (Dt)
China (Fd)
213
187 194
168
China (Fd)
275
344
China (Fd)
163
China (Fd)
212
India (Fd)
4%
190
China (Fd)
India (Dt)
5%
286
China (Fd)
240
Bangladesh (Fd)
6%
India (Dt)
India (Dt)
7%
China (Fd)
India (Dt)
8%
Dt = Drought; Fd = Flood
417
211
151
86
2%
89
87
59
78
67
41
30
32
30
1986
29
1985
1%
Trend +160%
255
3%
15
0%
2001
2000
1999
Small and Medium Disasters (less than 50m affected each)
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
1978
1977
1976
1975
Large Disasters (annotated with annual totals of millions harmed and main disaster)
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9%
People Affected by Weather-related Disasters 1975-2001
90%
1991–2000: Average Shares of Global Totals
GDP
CO2 Emissions
Population Size
60%
35%
34%
31%
30%
25%
25%
13%
13%
6%
5%
0.1%
N-America
2% 1% 0.5%
1%
Oceania
1%
Europe
8%
6%
5%
2%
C/S America
2%
3%
Africa
Asia
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People affected by weather related disasters
People Affected by Weather-related Disasters: The BaU Projection
5%
0%
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
2030 Population: 8bn
2030: 550m (7%)
1975: 70m (2%)
2001: 250m (4%)
2030 95%-confidence intervals
Trend Value:
460–630 million (6–8%)
Individual Values: 220–860 million (3–11%)
Source: B. Müller (2002), Equity in Climate change: The Great Divide
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10%
417 million
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This year’s catalogue of natural disasters, while engendering a compassionate public response, has shown
beyond all doubt that the world needs to get better at delivering humanitarian aid and carrying out
reconstruction.
There is a UN Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs and an existing UN fund for emergency
response. But the fund is only $50 million and can be used only to loan money to UN agencies that already
have pledges from donors.
For reconstruction to work, emergency assistance must also work, a fact recognized within Europe by the
creation of the European Solidarity Fund in 2002. So it is clear there is a need for a new humanitarian world
fund into which donors pay and from which humanitarian coordinators can immediately draw funds when a
crisis threatens
Our priority, then, must be to reform the UN’s Central Emergency Revolving Fund, and the UN Office for
Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs will indeed later this month make detailed proposals for this
reformed fund. At present six donors have pledged around $150 million (of which Britain’s contribution is
$70 million, but we would like to see this grow.
Montreal 2005
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Some Recent Developments 2:
Dion’s 3-is
• implementation
• improvement
• imagination
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Stephane Dion, Canadian Environment Minister, President of
the Conference proposed to structure the conference agenda
around “3-is”:
Implementation
• Adoption of the Kyoto Protocol Compliance Regime
Improvement
• CDM: Strengthening of the CDM Board capacity
• CDM: Allowing for ‘programmes of activities’
• JI: Joint Implementation Supervisory Committee established
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• Adoption of the Marrakech Accords
Imagination
Paul Martin, Prime Minister of Canada
Two-track strategy
• Kyoto Protocol post-2012 negotiation initiated
• Dion Dialogue on ‘future action’ under the UNFCCC
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“To the reticent nations, including the United States, I say this: there is such a
thing as a global conscience, and now is the time to listen to it. Now is the
time to join with others in the global community, now is the time for resolve,
for commitment, and for leadership. And above all now is the time for action,
because only by coming together can we make real and lasting progress.”
The Montreal Message
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The Kyoto Protocol – with its emission caps and trading
mechanisms – is not only fully operational, but has moved
on from being potentially merely a “one-period wonder” to
the only viable existing multilateral effort to combat
greenhouse gas emissions, which is here to stay!
The Way Forward
• USA: Link up regional US trading schemes with EU ETS
and Kyoto flexible mechanisms
• Large Developing Country emitters: address individual
‘luxury emissions’
• Levy on international air travel for adaptation funding
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Strategy to address large Kyoto non-Party emission
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Thank you!