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Climate Affairs: “Usable Science” for Society? Michael H. Glantz Consortium for Capacity Building INSTAAR, Univ. of Colorado IAFS 1000 10 March 2009 ccb.colorado.edu www.fragilecologies.com [email protected] global stew What I mean by Climate Affairs • Climate science • Climate impacts • On ecosystems • On societies • Climate policy & law • Climate politics • Climate economics • Climate ethics & equity Climate Affairs (why now?) • Climate issues: – Increasingly important to governments, corporations, foundations and the public – Multidisciplinary • Perceptions: – Climate anomalies: becoming more frequent, more costly, more deadly • Global warming: – Looming in the 21st century What I mean by Climate • Climate variability • Seasonal to inter-annual • Climate fluctuations • Decade scale • Climate change • “Deep” climate change –New global climate state • Extreme meteorological events • Seasonality All eyes are on the atmosphere, but… Problem Climates or Problem Societies? OR BOTH? Climate is not the only thing that is changing: Shanghai Harbor 1988 2004 Perceptions of Climate • Climate as a resource • Climate as a hazard • Climate as a constraint Every society climate has a mix of all three, but the proportions vary from one country to the next and one decade to the next. Climate is often a resource Climate-sensitive sectors • Food production • Crops • Fish • Livestock • Water resources • Quantity • Quality • Energy • Public health & safety • Economy • Environment • Other Hazards of Societal Concern (whether climate changes or not) • • • • • • • • • Droughts Floods Hurricanes Ice storms Forest fires El Niño & La Niña Diseases Global warming Other Global warming and extreme weather Climate Science •UnderstandHow scientists see the climate system the climate system •Understand its components •Society is an integral component US Global Change Research Program, 2000 El Niño as a Hazard-Spawner Time Series for El Niño (red) and La Niña (blue) Before 1976 more blue than red; after 1976 more red than blue. Red : El Nino Blue: La Nina El Niño comes of age (October 1997) Climate Impacts • On land and sea • On societies • Rich and Poor • Developed and Developing • North & South • Human impacts on the atmosphere • Heat island effect • Greenhouse gas emissions • Methods to separate natural from societal impacts El Nino: What it can do (based on what it has done in the recent past) Extremes occur every year Climate change More extremes, more frequency, more intensity, new locations Hurricane Katrina (August 29, 2005) Venezuelan Mud slides December 1999 Superstorm 1993 (March 12-15) From the Caribbean to Canada Europe heat wave Summer 2003 High impact weather • Most weather events aren’t record setting or extreme. • They get less attention • Yet, high impacts cause ‘misery’, death, destruction • Research them » along with climate » change impacts blockbuster extremes. WMO Global warming’s “Tipping points” • IPCC 1st to 3rd Assessments • IPCC 4th Assessment • Inconvenient Truth • Nobel Prize Toward an ice-free Arctic Ocean Melting Arctic sea ice Photo credit: Peter West, National Science Foundation Climate Policy & Law • Air pollution, acid rain, ozone depletion, global warming • Energy consumption, land-use practices, GHGs emission controls • Trans-boundary water issues, coastal ocean issues, air-shed management • IPCC deliberations and reports We are developing a “Law of the Atmosphere” Creeping environmental change (CEPs): Rates and processes of change 1) CEPs are Long-term, low grade but cumulative environmental changes 2) Governments have great difficulty focusing on CEPs 3) Quick onset changes get attention; slow onset are neglected, … » Until, it’s a costly crisis 4) Rates of change are as important to monitor as are the processes of change. 5) CEPS can easily be “Forecasted by Analogy” Climate Politics US Cities vs. the Federal Government • California regulations to reduce greenhouse gases from automobiles for the first time anywhere. • California's landmark regulations under attack from auto industry organizations • demanding the rollback of new climate protecting regulations. The Politics of Rescue Hurricane Katrina Hurricane Katrina 2005 Climate Politics (this is the latest) • Ice-Free Arctic • Land grab by circum-Arctic countries • Conservation vs exploitation • Continental shelf oil claims • Greenland considering independence • US and Russians developing ice-free Arctic ports • More Russian farmland but more Russian methane from permafrost melt Local, national, regional, global politics Winners or losers in global warming? International Response to US Pullout of Kyoto Process Climate Economics • Discounting the future – Present versus future generations • Discounting human lives – Value of lives, North & South • Prevent, mitigate or adapt – To climate variability and change Early Warning Systems (EWSs) more important than governments might realize Climate Ethics and Equity • Generational equity • Environmental justice • Downwind or Downstream • Natural disasters and poverty • • (the poor forced to live in high risk zones) Polluter Pays • Precautionary Principle • (“better safe now than sorry later”) • Nature’s Bank analogy • (everyone knows about banks) Sources & Victims of GHG Impacts Climate Environmental Refugees Image credit: Friends of the Earth Photo credit: Crosbie Weather (Hurricane Mitch) Refugees (Oct.-Nov. 1998) Bottom Line Separate climate’s contribution to climate’s impacts from society’s contribution to those impacts “Slumdog Millionaire” • Q: How could you answer 12 difficult questions? • A: “They asked me the 12 things I do know.” Ordinary knowledge is valuable Something to think about “I said that I wasn’t clever. I was just noticing how things were, and that wasn’t clever. That was just being observant. Being clever was when you looked at how things are and used the evidence to work out something new.” (Mark Haddon, 2002) Changing role of science science and society • Before the 1970s: “Science for Science” Campaign button considered radical at the time In 1970s: “Science for the People” After 2000: “Science with the People” Uppsala Universitet: Field Season 1999 Today, we need all three roles of science