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Biofuels and Climate Change Biofuelwatch www.biofuelwatch.org.uk introduced by Dr Andrew Boswell, biofuelwatch and UK Green Party councillor on Norfolk County Council Denmark September 2007 Biofuels and Climate Change Summary • Climate Change background urgency to avoid catastropic climate change • Public policy debate has been sidelined • Certification = no viable answer • Agrofuels / biofuels are accelerating climate change • Descending the transport emissions curve - Demand reduction is key Denmark September 2007 Biofuels and Climate Change Emission sources • Deforestation, agriculture and peat • Anthropogenic energy From Stern Report Denmark September 2007 Biofuels and Climate Change National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) Arctic 2007 Summer Ice Melt Non-linear effect? Denmark September 2007 Biofuels and Climate Change Descending the fossil emissions curve - Demand reduction is key Current EU energy policy Biofuels being sold at this level 160 – BUT IS THE OPPOSITE 140 TRUE? 120 90% carbon emission reduction needed 100 Energy efficiency and energy URGENTLY! reduction 80 Carbon management – use less carbon 60 40 Decarbonise – switch from carbon completely 20 Denmark 1990 September 2007 2000 2010 Biofuels and Climate Change 2020 US / EU Biofuel Policy – going off the graph EU – 10% by 2020 (1% now) US – 20% by 2020 (4% now) 2010 Denmark September 2007 Biofuels and Climate Change 2020 Agrofuels – no public policy debate • Even current 1% EU penetration has taken us into ‘downstream’ phase of implementation • Yet, there has been no consistent or complete scientific and policy scrutiny • Bypassed by Governments and industry • Public policy debate is urgently needed – moratorium is needed to facilitate this Denmark September 2007 Biofuels and Climate Change Certification context • Governments’ response to no public policy debate is to develop ‘certification schemes’ or ‘sustainability criteria’ • Calls for international scheme (UK Govt., Ford etc)Biofuels and Climate Change Denmark September 2007 Certification schemes • Greenhouse gas (GHG) balances –URGENT need for full lifecycle, whole system (macro) carbon balance studies • Direct and indirect environmental impacts: Deforestation, loss of habitats / biodiversity, water depletion, soil erosion, chemicals • Direct and indirect social impacts: Poverty, land conflicts, human rights, labour, food security and sovereignty Denmark September 2007 Biofuels and Climate Change Sustainability criteria • Driven by interests of industry and government • Displacement / leakage not handled – Existing agriculture displaced by agrofuels moves into new areas • Macro impacts through commodity price shifts not handled – Amazon deforestation ←→ soy price • US Corn for ethanol displaces US soy => soy price – EU oilseed rape use causes palm oil prices causes palm oil expansion Denmark September 2007 Biofuels and Climate Change Do Agrofuels save emissions? • Agrofuel infrastructure is built on Fossil Fuel infrastructure – Intensive agriculture – fossil fuel based – fertilisers, farm equipment, Nitrous oxide emissions (300* CO2), soil carbon emissions – Feedstock transport, shipping, ports – Refining (coal, gas fired plants!) ; process chemicals Denmark September 2007 Biofuels and Climate Change N20 needs further study • microbes convert N fertiliser to N2O – NEW STUDY by Nobel prizewinner Paul Crutzen, August 2007 : 3 to 5 per cent = twice the widely accepted figure of 2 per cent used by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). • oilseed rape biodiesel, for example, is up to 70% worse for the climate than fossil fuel diesel (also corn ethanol) • UK and EU Biofuels policy and certification schemes in scientific doubt • N2O emissions – chemical fertilizer impact greater in tropics • Both EU home grown biofuels and tropical imports Denmark September 2007 Biofuels and Climate Change Massive destruction beyond N2O - Agrofuels are accelerating climate change Fires to clear land for palm oil, Kalimantan Photo by Nordin, Save our Borneo Deforestation for oil palms, Colombia Peat drainage and destruction Drainage • Dry peat - oxidises and, over time, emits all its carbon as CO2. 42-50 billion tonnes of carbon stored in those SE Asian peatlands. Fires • Many set by plantation companies, greatly accelerate the loss of carbon. • Of the 27.1 million hectares of peatland in South-east Asia, 12 million hectares are deforested and mostly drained. Denmark September 2007 Biofuels and Climate Change Agrofuels as a new driver of peatland destruction Indonesia plans 20 million hectares new oil palm plantations to meet biodiesel demand. $17.4 billion investment deals in Indonesian palm oil agreed this year. According to 2006 FAO report, growth in European rapeseed oil biodiesel has significantly pushed up global palm oil prices. Denmark September 2007 Biofuels and Climate Change Deforestation • “with partial deforestation the entire landscape could become drier and a domino effect could occur producing a ‘tipping point’ affecting the whole forest”. Conclusion of recent scientific conference • Amazon drying out – die-back threat increasing - 120 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide Denmark September 2007 Biofuels and Climate Change Amazon Deforestation and Drought Deforestation in Novo Progreso, Brazil ; Alberto Cesar/Greenpeace/AP Denmark September 2007 Amazon drought 2005, Lake Rei Biofuels and Climate Change Massive Massive emission land-useexports change in from industralised global South, and nations crop commodity to global South traffic Denmark September 2007 Biofuels and Climate Change Emission trickery Exporting emissions from Northern transport to Southern agriculture and landuse NB: Soil + Peat not included Denmark September 2007 Biofuels and Climate Change Descending the transport emissions curve - Demand reduction is key 160Reduce vehicle emissions by 50% Current EU energy policy - smaller, more efficient vehicles 140 120 100 90% carbon Reduce journeys –emission planning, modal shift, 80 60 decouple needed transport reduction URGENTLY! from economy Reduce liquid fuel – plug-in hybrids 40 Change Supply - Concentrating Solar Power ? 20 Denmark 1990 September 2007 2000 2010 Biofuels and Climate Change 2020 The Climate Context • 1st generation biofuels – Scientific doubt on N20 for all fuel supply chains including EU oilseed rape – Already a climate disaster • Eg Indonesian peat lands • Deforestation tropics • Yet mass-scale infrastructure and investment ready for Wend are currently in ‘first generation’ • 2 generation biofuels world there is a gap to any viable – 15-20– years to develop – BUT emissions must be now generation’ second generation – cut ‘first – Biohazards (even now in R&D) problemsboreal mustandbe addressed – Deforestation temporate • Transport sector DEMAND Biofuels and Climate Change REDUCTION Denmark September 2007 Networking • What factsheets, lobbying support would be useful for your organisation? • immediate moratorium call on EU incentives for agrofuels, EU imports of agrofuels and EU agroenergy monocultures. http://www.econexus.info/biofuels.html • Sign up to the biofuelwatch yahoo group - send a blank email to [email protected] • www.biofuelwatch.org.uk • Email us at [email protected] if you Biofuels and Climate Change would like to get more involved in the campaign. Denmark September 2007 Denmark September 2007 Biofuels and Climate Change Mega-scale Agrofuel drivers • Government and corporate subsidy and promotion • Fits “Business as usual” policies and paradigms – Year-on-year economic growth – Avoid unpopular “demand reduction” politics • Short term “energy security” fix – Less pressure on Oil hotspots – Mid-East/Iraq – Stabilising Oil price? – EU / US “Oil independence” • New global mega-industry and infrastructure – agribusiness, biotech, and chemical sectors – refining, tankage and shipping sectors – commodity markets (eg Palm Oil, sugar, corn) Denmark September 2007 Biofuels and Climate Change