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Global Warming What is the Global Warming? Magdalena Anguelova Ph.D. Student Advisor: Prof. Ferris Webster 5 min. Global Warming A 100-year Old Question In 1896 the Swedish chemist Svante Arrhenius asked: “Is the mean temperature of the ground in any way influenced by the presence of heatabsorbing gases in the atmosphere?” Philosophical Magazine 2 of 25 Global Warming A 100-year Old Question In 1896 the Swedish chemist Svante Arrhenius asked: The global warming question was opened. 3 of 25 Global Warming A 100-year Old Question Uncertainty Well, more than 100 years later we still have not answered this question. Moreover, it is a hotly debated issue. 10 years have passed since this presentation was made. Today (2011), we have constrained some of this uncertainty. 4 of 25 Global Warming What is Global Warming? Global warming is a greenhouse effect in excess of the natural greenhouse effect. 5 of 25 Global Warming Greenhouse gases An increasing amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere causes the excessive warming. The change in greenhouse gas concentrations can be: » Natural; » Man-induced. 6 of 25 Global Warming Human Impact Humans have always changed their surroundings to some degree. 7 of 25 Global Warming Human Impact However, in the last century our activities have altered the global environment as never before. 8 of 25 Global Warming Gas Emissions Our daily life adds to the naturally occurring greenhouse gases: Nitrous oxide (N2O) Carbon dioxide (CO2) Methane (CH4) 9 of 25 Global Warming Gas Emissions 30% The changes since the industrial revolution are: Nitrous oxide (N2O) 15% Carbon dioxide (CO2) Methane (CH4) 100% 10 of 25 Global Warming Adding More Even worse -- we add unnatural long-lived (100’s of years) greenhouse gases: » ChloroFluoroCarbons (CFCs), » and Surface Ozone (O3) – this is “bad” ozone, – different from the one in the UV-protective ozone layer high in the stratosphere. 11 of 25 Global Warming The Statistics U.S. CO2 emissions, 1995. Greenhouse gas concentrations are projected to double preindustrial levels by the middle of the next century. 12 of 25 Global Warming The Effect The global heat budget is balanced in the long run: Incoming sunlight = Earth’s Reflected + Earth’s Emitted An increased amount of greenhouse gases, however, may disrupt the planet’s heat budget. 13 of 25 Global Warming Troubled Heat Budget If the amount of CO2 doubles, the outgoing radiation from Earth would decrease. To restore the balance, an increase in the mean surface temperature of the Earth is required. Climate Changes Temperature Precipitation By 2100 Earth would be 2 6oF warmer, hence... Sea Level Rise 14 of 25 Global Warming The Role of the Ocean A chain of processes removes atmospheric CO2 and stores it in the ocean depths: » Atmosphere-ocean gas exchange; » Phytoplankton photosynthesis; » Ocean circulation; » Biological pump. 15 of 25 Global Warming The Removed CO2 The ocean is the greatest reservoir for CO2. The net carbon uptake by the ocean is about 34% of the carbon put into the atmosphere. 16 of 25 Global Warming Keeling Curve Atmospheric CO2 concentration, Mauna Loa, HI. It became an icon of the global warming problem . No doubt, the amount of greenhouse gases increases. 17 of 25 Global Warming Why the Uncertainty Then? Our uncertainty stems from these questions: Is the warming solely man-induced? Or is this a natural variation in climate? What is the climate change rate? » Slow -- centuries to millennia? » Fast -- decades? 18 of 25 Global Warming Natural Climate Variability The Earth’s climate has always been changing. Greenhouse gas concentrations have changed accordingly. No doubt, the climate will continue to change. 19 of 25 Global Warming Slow Climate Change If natural climate change is slow: » We can find ways to deal with the maninduced warming; » Ecosystems have an opportunity to adjust. 20 of 25 Global Warming Fast Climate Change If natural climate change is fast: » The man-induced warming may initiate even more rapid warming; » Ecosystems will be drastically affected. 21 of 25 Global Warming Study, Study, Study... Thus, we need to ...know past climate changes well. ...understand present climate better. ...predict future climate changes accurately. 22 of 25 Global Warming Actions Everything helps: Observations: » Ice and sediment cores; » Ship measurements; » Satellite monitoring. Computers: » Ocean-atmosphere models; » Chemical-physical-biological models; » Socio-economic models. 23 of 25 Global Warming Global Warming Concern The End We have a lot of work to do! 24 of 25