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Regional Approaches to Risk Management Living with our Changing Climate IOCI Seminar and Workshop 16 August 2005 Roger N. Jones Moving from the tactical to strategic management of climate Linking climate to adaptation over time Climate system Impacted activity Socioeconomic system Current climate Current adaptations Future climate Future adaptations Risk is a measure of the changing ability to cope • Assess current climate risks – Climate variability – How have people learnt to cope? • Assess future climate risks – Changing climate hazards – Response between climate change and socioeconomic change – Estimating exposure to risks within relevant planning horizons – Building on historical capacity and developing new capacities Scoping phase If not already established, work with stakeholders to develop conceptual model of system What is the relationship between the hazard, the impact and vulnerability? Is there a point (linked to climate) where the the system ceases to operate in the way you would like? – critical threshold Selecting a method Historical & current climate risk Current climate Future climate risk Natural hazards based Future climate Current impacts Future impacts Coping capacity & vulnerability Vulnerability to untreated risk Current adaptive capacity Policy & plans without climate change Vulnerability / resilience based Developing new adaptive capacity Policy based Prioritising and implementing adaptations Mitigation Residual risk Characterisation of hazards Sector Climate Hazards Water Rainfall amount and variability, flood, drought Agriculture Flood, drought, cool/hot extremes, Storms, hail, humidity Health Hot/wet conditions, temperature extremes, violent storms, floods, crop and water shortages Coasts Storm surges, wind/wave climates, pressure extremes, tidal extremes Biodiversity Fire, flood, drought, storms What’s my baseline – water resources Climate records Storage records Streamflow records Operational records 1946 1948 1945 1972 Year 199 0 198 0 197 0 196 0 195 0 194 0 193 0 192 0 1967 191 0 190 0 110 1893 100 1891 90 80 70 1894 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 189 0 Number of stations Abrupt shifts in Australian rainfall 1890–1990 Total Positive Future climate - no adaptation Vulnerability (flood) Coping range Vulnerability (drought) Future climate with adaptation Vulnerability (flood) Coping range Adaptation Planning horizon Policy Horizon Vulnerability (drought) 2100 2080 2060 2040 2020 2000 Large dams Major urban i nf ras tructur e I nterg enera tional equity Longterm b iodive Bridge rsity design lif e/f lo od he ights n cycl es/pro f it & lo Agricu ss lture ( whole f arm p lannin Plant g) breed ing (ne w crop Fores s) t lease ag Pulp p lantati reements on Gener ationa s l succ ession New ir rigatio n proj Coast ects al/tour ism in f rastru Tree c cture rops Nation al par ks Airpor t desig n lif e Electio Planning horizons Average uncertainty P and Ep change over Australia (per degree global warming) 10.0 North-east Change per degree warming (%) Change per degree warming (%) North-west 20.0 0.0 -10.0 -20.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Evaporation Aug Sep Oct Nov NW Dec Rainfall NE 20.0 10.0 0.0 -10.0 -20.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Evaporation 20.0 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Sep Oct Nov Dec Sep Oct Nov Dec Rainfall 10.0 SW 0.0 -10.0 -20.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Evaporation Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec SE Change per degree warming (%) South-east Rainfall 20.0 10.0 0.0 -10.0 -20.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr Tas May Jun Jul Evaporation Tasmania Change per degree warming (%) Change per degree warming (%) South-west Aug Rainfall 20.0 10.0 0.0 -10.0 -20.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Evaporation Jul Aug Rainfall P and Ep changes for north-western Australia Change per degree warming (%) North-west 20.0 10.0 0.0 -10.0 -20.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Evaporation Change per degree global warming Jul Aug Rainfall Sep Oct Nov Dec Change per degree warming (%) P and Ep changes for south-western Australia South-west 20.0 10.0 0.0 -10.0 -20.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Evaporation Change per degree global warming Jul Aug Rainfall Sep Oct Nov Dec Hydrological sensitivity and runoff co-efficient 5 4 Sensitivity 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 0 10 20 30 40 Runoff (% of rainfall) Simhyd A Simhyd B AWBM A AWBM B Zhang01 A Zhang01 B 50 m en ny C ar oa st k R Ke ive r Fr n an t R kl i an ver O 'S ha d R nn ive r o W nR iv ar er re n D on R iv n er e Bl ac lly kw Ri ve Bu oo r ss d R el i to ver n Pr C es oa st to n C Riv ol lie er H ar Riv M er v ur ra ey R y i R iv ver er ( Av WA on ) R Sw iv M er oo an C re -H o as ill t R iv er s D ba Al Change in mean annual flow (%) Simple model of mean flow changes in 2030 – preliminary results 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60 -70 System vulnerability (supply & demand) • Sensitivity to supply changes (climate, land-use, fire) • Level of utilisation • Demand projections Supply change Demand change Current management Marginal planned change Substantial change Mitigative capacity ← Assess risk No adaptation Autonomous adaptation Coping range Manage risk Mitigation Adaptation → Adaptive capacity Critical risk Danger Autonomous adaptation Adapting (generic) Adapting (specific) Improve technology access Institutional reform Improved equity Access to information Build social capital Access to wealth creation Mainstreaming adaptation Natural resource management New technology Disaster planning Retrofit existing structures Build resilience/resistance Adapting (transformative) Replace activity Abandon activity Transform activity Natural hazard-driven approach Approach Method Outcome Scenarios Criteria: • What risks may we face under this projected scenario(s)? • Analyse possible outcomes from a given climate hazard(s) ± other drivers of change • An understanding of current/future climaterelated risks • Exploratory scenarios of climate with other biophysical and socio-economic conditions – – – – – Probabilities of hazard constrained Main drivers known Chain of consequences understood P(Hazard) × Consequences Largely exploratory Vulnerability-driven approach Approach Method Outcome Scenarios Criteria: • What is the risk of a specific place, process, group or activity being harmed? • Determine the likelihood of critical threshold exceedance • Understanding of exposure to harm and harmful processes • Characterisation of socio-economic outcomes; can use climate scenarios or diagnose exposure through inverse methods – – – – Probabilities of hazard not constrained Many drivers resulting in vulnerability Multiple pathways and feedbacks P(Vulnerability)/Hazard (e.g. critical threshold exceedance) – Largely normative Resilience-driven approach Approach Method Outcome Scenarios Criteria: • What advantages can we gain by better understanding of our current/future capacities? • Assess ability to withstand shocks, recover from setbacks and manage change. • Better knowledge of coping mechanisms and socio-political institutions, barriers to adaptation, increased benefits • Baseline adaptation, adaptation analogues from history, other locations other activities – – – – – Impacts and/or vulnerability understood Evidence of successful adaptation Benefits thought to be likely Barriers to adaptation recognised Risks that require treatment Policy-driven approach Approach Method Outcome Scenarios Criteria: • How will our current plans for the future be affected by climate change? • Assess the efficacy of an existing or proposed policy under climate change • Fitter policy under climate change • Unmanaged climate change impacts and vulnerability – Policy aims are sensitive to climate change – Desire to “mainstream” adaptation