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Living with Climate Change Are there Limits to Adaptation? Themes Theme 1: Adapting to thresholds in physical and ecological systems Theme 2: The role of values and culture in adaptation Theme 3: Governance, knowledge and technologies for adaptation Adaptation is necessary …. Emissions of greenhouse gases (GtCO2e) 450ppmv cumulative emission scenarios peaking in 2020 80 Low A Low B Medium A Medium B High A High B 60 40 20 0 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Year Global emissions growing at 2.7% p.a., 2000-08. They will have to drop like a stone after 2020 to meet any reasonable stabilisation level Bows and Anderson (2008) Phil Trans Roy Soc in press. Thinking behind the Themes Adaptation may be limited by: • divergent goals of adaptation (diverse and incommensurable values) • uncertainty in foresight • intrinsic current value of places and identities Adaptation is constrained by: • social characteristics and individual behaviour Adger, Dessai et al. (2008) – background paper Theme 1 Adapting to thresholds in physical and ecological systems • Can limits be defined in physical parameters when adaptation involves biological and human adaptation? • Irreversibility ….. • …… of social, cultural and ecological attributes? Information is not the constraint UK climate scenarios from 1990-2002 compare favourably to recent CET observations 60 Summer precipitation change (%) Summer temperature change (ºC) 3 2 1 0 -1 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 -2 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 Year 1990 1995 2000 2005 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year Dessai and Hulme (2008) GRL submitted Theme 2 Role of values and culture in adaptation • • • • Unique nature of places, societies, cultures Identities bound to localities Subjective, cultural and symbolic values Continuous change and adaptation? Theme 3 Governance, knowledge and technologies for adaptation Scale Agency Diverse goals Modes of governance A priori thoughts • Adaptation is happening now, but constrained by behaviour, inertia and contested values and aims • Adaptation is absolutely necessary and resonates with sustainable development • Adaptation will be painful for many Living with Climate Change Are there Limits to Adaptation?