* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Download Global Climate Change
Climatic Research Unit email controversy wikipedia , lookup
Economics of climate change mitigation wikipedia , lookup
Climate resilience wikipedia , lookup
Heaven and Earth (book) wikipedia , lookup
German Climate Action Plan 2050 wikipedia , lookup
ExxonMobil climate change controversy wikipedia , lookup
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change wikipedia , lookup
Michael E. Mann wikipedia , lookup
2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference wikipedia , lookup
Soon and Baliunas controversy wikipedia , lookup
Climate change denial wikipedia , lookup
Citizens' Climate Lobby wikipedia , lookup
Mitigation of global warming in Australia wikipedia , lookup
Climate engineering wikipedia , lookup
Fred Singer wikipedia , lookup
Climate governance wikipedia , lookup
Climate change adaptation wikipedia , lookup
Climatic Research Unit documents wikipedia , lookup
Global warming controversy wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in Tuvalu wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in Saskatchewan wikipedia , lookup
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change wikipedia , lookup
Climate sensitivity wikipedia , lookup
Economics of global warming wikipedia , lookup
North Report wikipedia , lookup
Media coverage of global warming wikipedia , lookup
General circulation model wikipedia , lookup
Politics of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and agriculture wikipedia , lookup
Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on human health wikipedia , lookup
Physical impacts of climate change wikipedia , lookup
Global warming wikipedia , lookup
Solar radiation management wikipedia , lookup
Global warming hiatus wikipedia , lookup
Scientific opinion on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in the United States wikipedia , lookup
Attribution of recent climate change wikipedia , lookup
Surveys of scientists' views on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Climate change feedback wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and poverty wikipedia , lookup
Public opinion on global warming wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on humans wikipedia , lookup
Instrumental temperature record wikipedia , lookup
Global Climate Change: Health Risks – and Preventive Strategies Tony McMichael National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health The Australian National University Climate Change 101 • The world’s climate is an integrated system • Many factors (‘forcings’) influence the atmosphere’s uptake and distribution of energy (heat) • Energy-trapping gases (esp CO2, water vapour, CH4) absorb outgoing re-radiated infrared radiation – This raises Earth’s surface temperature • Human activity is increasing the concentration of these ‘greenhouse’ gases • CO2 concentration has increased from 275 ppm to 380 ppm over past century – Current trend: 450 ppm by ~2030 (= + 2oC) As humanity’s resource consumption increases, World Overshoot Day occurs earlier each year. The first Overshoot Day was Dec 19, 1987. Today, it is on October 9 – i.e., our Ecological Footprint is almost 30% larger than the planet’s biocapacity. World Overshoot Day = [World biocapacity / World Ecological Footprint ] x 365 1987 2000 This year, in just 282 days, we consume the biosphere’s entire capacity for 2006. 2006 October 9, 2006 www.footprintnetwork.org/gfn_sub php?content=overshoot Estimated deaths and DALYs attributable to climate change Selected health outcomes in developing countries Floods Malaria Total = 150,000 deaths/yr Now (2000) Diarrhoea Future (2030) Malnutrition 120 100 80 60 40 20 Deaths (thousands) 0 2 4 6 8 DALYs (millions) WHO, 2004: Global Burden of 2000 2030 Disease 10 Climate Change: Relevance to Med Students • Professional – – – – – Advice to patients and families Awareness of shifts in differential diagnosis Contribution to organisational policy/advocacy Participation in research Health sector: energy efficiency, technology choices • Citizen – Participation in public debate and political decisions – Community, family and personal decisions/behaviours Doctors for the Environment Australia http://www.dea. org.au/ Poster Campaign 2005-2006 Recent Review Articles McMichael AJ, Woodruff R, Hales S. Climate change and human health: present and future. Lancet, 2006; 367: 859-69. Website of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – Working Gp 2: chapter on Health Impacts (McMichael & Githeko) http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg2/347.htm Summary of Direction, Magnitude, and Certainty of Projected Health Impacts [IPCC: draft only] Negative Impact Positive Impact Very High Confidence Effects on geographic range & incidence of malaria High Confidence Undernutrition & consequent disorders Extreme events (heatwaves, storms, floods, droughts) Illness/death due to (amplified) poor air quality Cold-related deaths Medium Confidence Diarrhoeal diseases Research at NCEPH • Daily temperature + air pollution mortality & hospital admissions • Weather patterns and asthma occurrence • Daily/weekly temp and food poisoning • Climatic and environmental influences on Ross River Virus disease • Drought severity and mental health (suicides) • Modelling future changes in health risks w.r.t. climate-change scenarios Variations of the Earth’s surface temperature for the past 1,000 years: 1000-2000 AD 2000 Grey area shows statistical uncertainty range IPCC (2001): SPM 1b Past Climate Mean surface temperature, 1855-2004 Temperature variation from 1961-90 average oC Climate Research Unit, UEA, 2005 Causes of Global Climate Change • Natural variability: wobbles of Earth’s axis and changes in orbit (20K-100K yrs), solar activity, volcanoes, ENSO cycle • Human activities: increases in greenhouse gases & aerosols, ozone depletion, land clearing • IPCC: Most global warming since 1950 due to human activities (incr. greenhouse gas emissions) – Evidence for this: • • • • • • land-ocean temperature contrasts annual cycle of terrestrial temperature hemispheric temperature contrast regional warming height of tropopause (between troposphere/stratosphere) pattern of ocean heating Australia: Recent climate change • Warming of 0.9oC since 1910, mostly since 1950 • Minimum temperatures have risen twice as fast as maximum temperatures Trend in mean temp, 1950-2005 (oC/10 yrs) • 2005 was Australia’s warmest year on record • More heatwaves, fewer frosts • More rain in north-west since 1950; less in south and east Annual total rainfall, 1950-2005 (mm/10 yrs) [CSIRO] Causes of climate change in Australia • Warming since 1950 mostly due to global increases in greenhouse gases • Rainfall trends: uncertain causes: – Increases in northwest: ? natural variability and shift in weather patterns due to increases in northern hemisphere aerosols – Decreases in south: ? natural variability plus greenhouse gas increases – Decreases in east: ? increase in El Niño events since 1975 (uncertain cause) 20 Earth’s Average 19 Surface Temp (OC) 18 IPCC (2001) estimate: + 1.4-5.8 oC by 2100 17 16 15 Most of warming since 1950 is due to human actions (IPCC, 2001) 14 13 1860 Central estimate: 2.5 oC increase Band of 1200-yr historical climatic variability 1900 1950 2000 Year 2050 2100 Climate Change Projections Instead of simple extrapolation, CSIRO uses computer models of the climate system, driven by future emissions scenarios for greenhouse gas and aerosols (and ozone depletion) Emission scenarios (e.g. IPCC ‘SRES’) make assumptions about future demographic, economic & technology changes Global CO2 Emissions Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations Changes in Earth’s temperature over past 80 m years, and upper/lower estimates for next several centuries Hundreds of years FUTURE 2100 Now Homo genus Hominins appear PAST Millions of years Barrett, Nature, 2003 Greenland Ice Sheet: Increase in Area Melted in Summer, from 1992 to 2002 (Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, 2004) 1992 Orange area = melt-zone 2002 Great Barrier Reef Annual bleaching by 2030-50 (CSIRO, 2006) Two Important Perspectives • Health risks are influenced by both ‘natural climate variability’ and by (human-induced) climate change • Climate change typically acts in concert with other environmental changes Worldwide Capture-Fisheries Fish account for a high proportion of animal protein in the world’s diet – especially in many developing-country coastal communities. Global fisheries 25% of commercially exploited marine fish stocks are now seriously over-harvested (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005) Grand Banks cod fishery Global marine fish harvest Global fisheries harvest has declined since late ’80s “… the distributions of both exploited and nonexploited North Sea fishes have responded markedly to recent increases in sea temperature…over 25 years. … Further temperature rises are likely to have profound impacts on commercial fisheries…” Climate Change and Ocean Acidity Report by (UK) Royal Society, 30 June 2005 Increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide has significantly increased ocean acidity. Report chairman: "Failure to cut CO2 emissions may mean that there is no place in the oceans of the future for many of the species and ecosystems that we know today.“ (Calcification – zooplankton, crustaceans, shellfish – is very sensitive to pH. These species are base of marine food web. ) That is, in combination: • Over-fishing • Ocean warming • Ocean acidification … are all impairing the food web and the future productivity of ocean fisheries Illustrates problem of emerging global non-sustainability Climate Change and Health: Pathways 1 Direct impact e.g. heatwaves, floods, fires Changes to physical systems/processes Climate change e.g. urban air pollution 2 Mediating processes (indirect) Biological changes: processes, timing e.g. mosquito numbers,range; photosynthesis crop yields Changes to ecosystem structure and function e.g. fisheries; constraints on microbes; nutrient cycles; forest productivity 3 Social, economic, demographic disruptions Health impacts Three Types of Study Empirical studies Learn Detect Estimation, modelling Past Present Future Natural climate variation: - identify ‘effect’ - quantify risks Current climate change: - detect effects - quantify effects - attribute burden Future climate change: - estimate risks - est. attrib burden Monthly cases of Salmonella food-poisoning in relation to monthly temperature Australian cities, 1991-2001 (modelled best-fit graphs) 100 Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Perth Adelaide 90 Salmonella 80 cases / month 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 10 15 20 25 Temperature oC 28 D’Souza, Hall, et al., NCEPH/ANU, 2003 12-day Heatwave, 3-14 Aug, 2003 Maximum Temperature, Aug 10 Excess Mortality: France: 14,800 Italy: 10,000 Spain & Portugal: 5,000 Etc. Total = 30,000+ Paris, Heatwave (Aug 2003): Daily Mean Temps and Deaths 35 oC 350 300 250 30 Mean daily temp, 2003 200 150 Daily deaths +12 oC 25 +8 oC Mean daily temp 1999-2002 ~12oC above season norm 20 15 oC 100 50 0 ~900 extra deaths during heatwave Based on: Vandentorren S, et al. AJPH 2004;94:1518-20. Daily temperature and deaths: what happens at temperature extremes? Impact of Europe 2003 heatwave suggests graph c, not b, applies at unusually hot temperatures Daily death rate We already have sufficient observations within this ‘normal’ temperature range c b ? a Old adults Young adults Average Warm Hot Daily temperature Extremely hot Tick-borne (viral) Encephalitis, Sweden: 1990s v 1980s (winter warming) Changing Distribution of the Tick Vector Early 1980s Mid1990s White dots indicate locations where ticks were reported. Black line indicates study region. Lindgren et al., 2000, 2001 Schistosomiasis: Potential transmission of S japonicum in Jiangsu province due to raised avg January temperature. [Red lines = part of planned Sth-Nth water canal.] Freezing zone 1970-2000 Temperature change in China from 1960s to1990s 0.6-1.2 oC Freezing zone 1960-1990 Hongze lake 1.2-1.8 oC Baima lake Yangtze River Recent studies in China indicate that the increase in recorded incidence of schistosomiasis over the past decade may in part reflect recent warming. The “freeze line” limits survival of the intermediate host (Oncomelania water snails) and hence limits transmission of Schistosomiasis japonica. This parasite has moved northwards, putting 20.7 million extra people at risk (Yang, Vounatsou, et al. 2005). Shanghai Hurricane Katrina crossing Gulf of Mexico Yellow/orange/red areas at or above 82°F (27.8°C) – the temperature needed for hurricanes to strengthen. (NASA, 2005) Estimating Future Influences of Climate Change on Health and Health Risks Drought CSIRO estimates: • By 2030, drought frequency increases by up to 20% over most of Australia • By 2070, drought frequency increases by 20-80% in south, 20-40% in Qld, 0-20% elsewhere (except central WA) CSIRO Mk2 model: 2030 (high) % change in drought frequency +80 +60 +40 +20 0 -20 -40 +80 +60 +40 +20 0 Mpelasoka et al. (in preparation) -20 -40 Evidence of El Niño: 1997, 2006 Sept 15 2006 Sept 20 1997 Sept 20 1997 Note: Warm surface equatorial waters are flowing east across the Pacific, brining rain to Central and South America coasts, and leaving drought in Australia (and beyond) Malaria Transmissibility: Temperature and Biology 30 20 (per day) 0.3 P.vivax P.falciparum (per day) (days) 40 0.2 0.1 0 15 20 25 30 35 40 0.6 0.4 0 10 Temp (°C) 0.8 0.2 10 0 Survival probability 1 Biting frequency Plasmodium Incubation period 50 15 20 25 30 35 40 10 Temp (°C) TRANSMISSION POTENTIAL 1 0.8 0.6 Also: Pascual et al 2006 0.4 0.2 0 14 17 20 23 26 29 32 35 38 41 Temperature (°C) 15 20 25 30 Temp (°C) 35 40 Climate Change & Malaria (potential transmission) in Zimbabwe Baseline 2000 2025 2050 Harare Ebi et al., 2005 Climate Change & Malaria (potential transmission) in Zimbabwe Baseline 2000 2025 2050 Ebi et al., 2005 Climate Change & Malaria (potential transmission) in Zimbabwe Baseline 2000 2025 2050 Ebi et al., 2005 Dengue Fever: Modelling of receptive geographic region for Ae. Aegyptii mosquito, under alternative climate-change scenarios for 2050 . . Darwin Katherine . . . . Darwin Katherine Broome . . . . . Mackay Townsville . Mackay Current risk region for dengue transmission Townsville Port Hedland Cairns Port Hedland . . Cairns Broome . . . Risk region for medium Rockhampton Carnarvon emissions scenario, 2050 Rockhampton . . . Darwin Brisbane Katherine Broome . . . . Cairns Townsville Port Hedland . . Mackay Rockhampton Risk region for high Carnarvon emissions scenario, 2050 . NCEPH/CSIRO/BoM, 2003 Environmental Refugees UN projection (2006) • By 2020: up to 50 million people escaping effects of environmental deterioration. – order-of-magnitude increase vs. 2005 • Inevitable spectrum of health risks – physical, nutritional, infectious, mental, and conflict situations CO2 Stabilisation & Global Warming o Temperature change ( C) 6 5 4 3 5.8 SRES high SRES low IPCC 450 ppm low IPCC 450 ppm high IPCC 550 ppm low IPCC 550 ppm high 2.9 2.3 2 1.5 1.4 1.2 1 0 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Year Stabilising CO2 at: 550 ppm by 2150 could limit warming to 1.5-2.9°C by 2100. 450 ppm by 2090 could limit warming to 1.2-2.3°C by 2100. Note: Current level = 380 ppm (vs 275 pre-industrial) Major Domains of Adaptation • Strengthening natural and infrastructural defences against physical disasters – Institutional disaster preparedness • Advance warning of epidemic outbreaks (Colombia, Indonesia, etc.) • Managing water resources – Safety/quality and access – Mosquito breeding • Reducing urban vulnerability – Protecting energy systems (decentralisation?) – Minimising heat islands • Protecting food-producing systems and food access • Data systems: Monitoring, surveillance, analysis, dissemination • Health-care system: structure, staffing, connectedness Tasks for formal health sector 1. Disease prevention 2. Public education 3. Disaster Preparedness 4. Early warning systems 5. Surveillance of disease occurrence and risk factors 6. Forecasting of likely future health risks 7. Engage in inter-sectoral discussions & policy devt 8. Minimise greenhouse gas emissions by health system infrastructure - Resource-intensive hospitals: ~60% of public consumption - Vic DHS: “HERO”; green hospitals That’s all