Download The IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources

The IPCC Special Report on
Renwables and Climate Change
Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer
Universität Flensburg
Former Vice Chair WG III IPCC
CISBAT 2011
EPFL, Lausanne, September 14th-16th 2011
Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer
The IPCC Special Report on Renewables and Climate Change
Folie 1
Structure of the presentation
•
•
•
•
Who or what is the IPCC?
Man-made climate change
Energy – the heart of the problem
Renewable energy sources – the core of
the solution
• The IPCC Special Report on Renewables
• Conclusions
Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer
The IPCC Special Report on Renewables and Climate Change
Folie 2
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC)
• UN organization with about 190 member states
• Founded 1988 as daughter of WMO and UNEP
• Objective: Regular reports on the latest state of the art in climate
science
• Four subject areas and three working groups
• 100 – 200 scientists nominated and selected for each report
(representing the best in the field and from all world regions)
• Multiple scientific and government review of each report
• Consensus decision by the IPCC plenary on each report
• Accepted basis for international climate policy
Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer
The IPCC Special Report on Renewables and Climate Change
Folie 3
Man-made climate change
Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer
The IPCC Special Report on Renewables and Climate Change
Folie 4
Anthropogenic influences on
climate change
CO2, CH4 and N2O Concentrations
- far exceed pre-industrial values
- increased markedly since 1750
due to human activities
Relatively little variation before
the industrial era
Source: IPCC 2007a (WG I, SPM, p. 3)
Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer
The IPCC Special Report on Renewables and Climate Change
Folie 5
Increased global temperature change
Warmest 12 years since 1850:
1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006,
2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,2000
Source: IPCC 2007a (WG I TS p, 37)
Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer
The IPCC Special Report on Renewables and Climate Change
Folie 6
Anthropogenic and natural forcings
Source: IPCC 2007a (WG I TSp.62)
Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer
The IPCC Special Report on Renewables and Climate Change
Folie 7
Time Left to Act
Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer
The IPCC Special Report on Renewables and Climate Change
Folie 8
Projections of future changes in climate
Source: IPCC 2007a (WG I, SPM p.14)
Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer
The IPCC Special Report on Renewables and Climate Change
Folie 9
How much time is left to act?
Source: IPCC 2007 (TS WG III, p. 19)
Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer
The IPCC Special Report on Renewables and Climate Change
Folie 10
Options for Action
Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer
The IPCC Special Report on Renewables and Climate Change
Folie 11
Contributions to cumulated emission
reductions until 2030 and 2100
Source: IPCC 2007 (SPM WG III, p. p17)
Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer
The IPCC Special Report on Renewables and Climate Change
Folie 12
Energy
The Heart of the Problem
Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer
The IPCC Special Report on Renewables and Climate Change
Folie 13
Global GHG emissions 1970 to 2004
Source: IPCC 2007 (TS WG III, p. 4)
Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer
The IPCC Special Report on Renewables and Climate Change
Folie 14
Fossil Fuels – the heart of the problem
(The case of Germany)
GHG emissions in the FRG in 2000
Share of GHGs in the FRG in 2000:
• CO2:
87%
• CH4:
6%
• N2O:
6%
• HFCS/PFCS:
1%
• SF6:
0,25%
Total GHG emissions
in 2000
990 Mt CO2 eq.
CO2
SF6
N2O
FCKWs
97% of all CO2 emissions from
energy conversion processes!
Fossil fuels represent
85% of the problem
Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer
The IPCC Special Report on Renewables and Climate Change
CH4
Source: BMU 2003, p. 32 und
UBA 2002, p. 31
Folie 15
Decarbonising the energy system
Four options
•
•
•
•
Nuclear energy
Clean fossil fuels (CCS)
Energy efficiency
Renewable energy sources:
–
–
–
–
–
–
Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer
direct solar energy
wind energy
biomass
hydro power
geothermal energy
ocean energy
The IPCC Special Report on Renewables and Climate Change
Folie 16
The IPCC Special Report on
Renewable Energy Sources and Climate
Change Mitigation
Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer
The IPCC Special Report on Renewables and Climate Change
Folie 17
The structure of the SRREN
Source: IPCC 2011 (SPM, SRREN, p. 2)
Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer
The IPCC Special Report on Renewables and Climate Change
Folie 18
The global potential of renewables
Source: IPCC 2011 (SPM, SRREN, p. 8)
Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer
The IPCC Special Report on Renewables and Climate Change
Folie 19
The cost of renewables
Source: IPCC 2011 (SPM, SRREN, p. 10)
Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer
The IPCC Special Report on Renewables and Climate Change
Folie 20
Price development or wind and solar
energy
Source: IPCC 2011 (SPM, SRREN, p. 12)
Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer
The IPCC Special Report on Renewables and Climate Change
Folie 21
GHG emissions of electricity generation
Source: IPCC 2011 (SPM, SRREN, p. 17)
Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer
The IPCC Special Report on Renewables and Climate Change
Folie 22
The role of renewables for climate
protection
Source: IPCC 2011 (SPM, SRREN, p. 19)
Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer
The IPCC Special Report on Renewables and Climate Change
Folie 23
Renewables and mitigation costs
Source: IPCC 2011 (TS, SRREN, p. 146)
Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer
The IPCC Special Report on Renewables and Climate Change
Folie 24
Conclusions
• Climate change is developing faster than we thought
• GHG concentrations need to be stabilized at even lower
levels (440 ppmvCO2) to avoid serious damages
•
• Energy is the heart of the problem
• Renewable energy sources will be a major part of the
solution
• Renewables can supply far more than the future world
energy demand
• By 2050 they can supply up to 80%
Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer
The IPCC Special Report on Renewables and Climate Change
Folie 25
Thank you for your attention!
Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer
The IPCC Special Report on Renewables and Climate Change
Folie 26