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Climate Change: Science and Modeling John Paul Gonzales Project GUTS Teacher PD 6 January 2011 Important Concepts “Climate” vs. “Weather” Important Concepts “Climate” vs. “Weather” Weather: The short-term state of the atmosphere. Local conditions of heat, humidity, pressure, wind, cloud cover. Important Concepts “Climate” vs. “Weather” Weather: The short-term state of the atmosphere. Local conditions of heat, humidity, pressure, wind, cloud cover. Climate: Long term regional trends of weather patterns measured in decades or even centuries. Average statistics of heat, rainfall, humidity. Important Concepts “Climate” vs. “Weather” “Climate is what you pack for. Weather is what you wear that day.” Important Concepts “Climate” vs. “Weather” “Climate is what you pack for. Weather is what you wear that day.” Important Concepts Important Concepts Climate Stability and Climate Change Climate Stability and Climate Change Like weather, climate changes over time Climate Stability and Climate Change Like weather, climate changes over time: Climate Stability and Climate Change We know that global climate change is occurring now as well: •The period between 1990 and today has been the warmest period in the global temperature record, collected since the mid-1800s •The difference between past climate change and the climate change we are experiencing now is that according to the IPCC “it [is] very likely (meaning more than 90% likely) that most of the warming is anthropogenic or human-induced.” Climate Stability and Climate Change Like weather, climate changes over time Climate Stability and Climate Change Evidence for current Climate Change: 1) Carbon dioxide levels and levels of other greenhouse gases have been rising for at least 50 years. Climate Stability and Climate Change 2) Carbon from fossil fuels is being added to the atmosphere. 3) Evidence from ice cores show a very strong correlation between carbon dioxide levels and global temperatures Climate Stability and Climate Change 4) The greenhouse effect is not in dispute. 5) The Earth’s surface temperature has increased sharply in recent years. Impact of Climate Change Impact of Climate Change Impact of Climate Change Various impacts of climate change are projected such as: • Changes in surface temperature • Changes in precipitation and • Sea level changes Impact of Climate Change Scientists predict more severe weather, such as storms, floods, or droughts. •increases in precipitation are very likely in polar regions •increases in droughts are likely in subtropical and tropical regions. •Low-lying island nations will be threatened by rising sea levels. •Extreme weather events, such as floods and hurricanes, are predicted to become more common. Impact of Climate Change Biological effects of climate change are already noticeable: •Some plants are blooming earlier in the Spring. •There have been shifts in the ranges of species •20 – 30% of plant and animal species are likely to be at increased risk of extinction. Impact of Climate Change •A small amount of global warming (up to 3 ºC) would be favorable for global food production •But a greater than 3 ºC temperature increase would have a negative effect overall. •In arid and tropical regions (such as New Mexico), even a small increase in average temperature is expected to decrease crop productivity. Climate as a Complex System Climate as a Complex System Climate as a Complex System A system with many different variables. Climate as a Complex System A system with many different variables. Heat Moisture Pressure Greenhouse Gases Albedo Climate as a Complex System A system with many different variables. Climate as a Complex System A system with many different variables. A system with feedback loops. Climate as a Complex System A system with many different variables. A system with feedback loops. Outputs Inputs Climate as a Complex System Water Temperatures Less Snow and Ice More sunlight absorbed by land and sea Climate as a Complex System Climate Modeling Climate Modeling Abstract The Problem Climate Modeling Abstract The Problem Variables: Temperature Humidity Wind Currents Ocean Currents Climate Modeling Abstract The Problem Variables: Temperature Humidity Wind Currents Ocean Currents Climate Modeling Abstract The Problem Variables Variables: Temperature Moisture Humidity Wind Currents Ocean Currents Climate Modeling Variables Climate Modeling Climate Modeling Climate Modeling http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a003200/a003229/inde x.html