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Transcript
Agriculture, Climate Change and Adaptation
Bruce A. McCarl
Distinguished Professor of Agricultural Economics, Texas A&M University
[email protected], http//ageco.tamu.edu/faculty/mccarl
Energy
Climate Change Adaptation
Climate Change Mitigation
Climate Change Effects
Climate Change Class
Sensitivity
• Total burden of climate change consists of three elements:
– costs of mitigation (reducing the extent of climate change),
– costs of adaptation (reducing the impact of change), and
– residual impacts that can be neither mitigated nor adapted
to
IPCC FAR WGII Ch 18
Adaptation Policy
and its inevitability
Why Adapt - Inevitability
Characteristics of stabilization scenarios
Year CO2
needs to peak
Year CO2
emissions
back at 2000
level
Reduction in 2050
CO2 emissions
compared to 2000
2.0 – 2.4
2000 - 2015
2000- 2030
-85 to -50
490 – 535
2.4 – 2.8
2000 - 2020
2000- 2040
-60 to -30
535 – 590
2.8 – 3.2
2010 - 2030
2020- 2060
-30 to +5
590 – 710
3.2 – 4.0
2020 - 2060
2050- 2100
+10 to +60
710 – 855
4.0 – 4.9
2050 - 2080
+25 to +85
855 – 1130
4.9 – 6.1
2060 - 2090
+90 to +140
Stabilization
level
(ppm CO2-eq)
Global mean
temp. increase
at equilibrium
(ºC)
445 – 490
IPCC WGIII Table SPM.5: Characteristics of post-TAR stabilization scenarios WG3 [Table TS 2,
3.10], SPM p.23
Degree of climate change – Emissions growing
Emissions growing
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/emissions/globalghg.html
Size of Potential Emissions
Atmosphere 800 PgC (2004)
Biomass
~500 PgC
N. Gas
Oil
~260 PgC ~270 PgC
Soils
~1,500 PgC
Coal
5,000 to 8,000 PgC
Unconventional Fossil Fuels
15,000 to 40,000 PgC
Source Jae Edmonds, Joint Global Change Research Institute at the University of Maryland
What are Policy alternatives
Policy Directions
• Policy toward climate change consists of three elements:
– Let it happen – ignore
– Pursue mitigation (reducing the extent of climate change),
– Pursue adaptation (reducing the impact of change), and
Schematic from Parry, 2009
Policy Sensitivity
• Let it happen – ignore or only reduce
– Effects on previous page
• Pursue mitigation (reducing the extent of climate change)
– Energy will be major thrust
• De carbonize
• Tax
• Pursue renewable
– So may be agricultural activities
•
•
•
•
Land use change – domestic and ILUC
Sequestration – tree planting, grass, tillage
Emissions, fossil fuel use, enteric, manure, rice
Offsets – biofuel and bio electricity – watch out for LUC
• Pursue adaptation (reducing the impact of change)
– Maintenance of current productivity
– Autonomous – varieties, planting dates, crop mix, enterprise choice
– Facilitating adaptation
• R&D on adapted varieties, practices
• Extension
• Facilities
– Compensation (international)
• Resource competition from both
General thoughts on Adaptation
Agricultural Manifestations of Risk
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
6)
7)
8)
9)
10)
11)
12)
13)
14)
Greater plant water needs
Greater city water needs
More fresh surface water?
More water in infrequent events
More pests
altered grass
Less severe winter and cattle/hogs
Northward crop migrations
Altered water quality
Inundated facilities (not here)
GHG Emissions
Higher priced energy
Earlier lake thaw
Winter access to water transport
Adaptation
Autonomous adaptations are actions taken voluntarily
by decision-makers (such as farmers or city leaders)
whose risk management is motivated by information,
market signals, co-benefits, and other factors.
Planned adaptations are interventions by governments
to address needs judged unlikely to be met by
autonomous actions—often adaptations larger in scale
and/or resource requirements.
We will largely deal with planned adaptations in need
of some form of policy, program or investment
facilitation.
Adaptation
Autonomous adaptations are private
Planned adaptations are needed to correct market
failure induced by
• divergence between discount rates
• public good nature of some adaptations
• differential value of resolving inequities
• differential risk aversion and risk perception
• local barriers to adaptation
• social concerns over pecuniary externalities,
• difference in information availability
• Land ownership and property rights
• unmanaged areas which are not subject to
management
Adaptation
Basic resolution requires moving beyond a strict
economic benefit–cost viewpoint to consider effects on a
number of other factors such as
•
•
•
•
income distribution/and poverty,
contributions to society current and future,
potential secondary regional and distributions of economic
activity including employment - not typically validly included
in benefit cost analysis and
non monetary implications (e.g., altered water quality, habitat
implications, human health, and quality of life).
Entails multi-metrics analysis unifying economic
measures with non-economic environmental quality and
health type measures and non-market valuation issues.
Adaptation
•
•
•
•
•
Far right-hand side vertical is a pre climate change welfare
Next vertical is an engineering technical assessment showing unavoidable residual damages,
First sloped from right considers implementation costs - more adaptation being achieved as
more is spent on adaptation.
Next is competitive economic potential which shows less being adopted when considering
resource competition
Finally barrier adjusted curve giving the actual adaptation that occurs reflecting limited
information, human and financial capital in region
Adaptation
One would anticipate that the returns to increasing levels of
adaptation investment will likely decrease with effort.
As is argued in Parry et al, the first 10% of the benefits from
adaptation can be achieved with relatively low levels of effort but
as the amount of adaptation increases the costs of
implementation gets successively more expensive.
Martin Parry, Nigel Arnell, Pam Berry, David Dodman, Samuel Fankhauser, Chris Hope, Sari Kovats, Robert
Nicholls, David Sattherwaite, Richard Tiffin, Tim Wheeler: Assessing the costs of adaptation to climate
change: A critique of the UNFCCC estimates http://www.iied.org/pubs/pdfs/11501IIED.pdf
Adaptation
The emergence of adaptation funds and the likelihood of
substantial project level adaptation raises issues.
Baseline and additionality where it is desirable to fund adaptation strategies
that would not have occurred (those not autonomously adopted).
Leakage where investments may alter commodity production changing
market prices and potentially affecting adaptation elsewhere as explored in a
mitigation context by Murray, McCarl and Lee.
Performance uncertainty where it may be worthwhile placing a lower
confidence interval on adaptation potential. See Kim and McCarl in
mitigation setting.
Permanence where one needs to consider the duration that the adaptation
investment will be effective and not assume that the result persists forever see
Kim McCarl and Murray for discussion in mitigation setting.
Adaptation
The existence of adaptation funds like the world bank
one certainly raises Burden sharing issues
On the donor side:
Who should contribute? How much?
On the recipient side:
Who should receive adaptation investment assistance?
and How much?
There has been work done on this regarding general
considerations of liability and ethics; political issues,
polluters pay principles and North-South issues.
Adaptation and the treadmill
Climate change and its continual progression
raises a new demand on agriculture research and
extension
Traditionally in agriculture we did research on
yield improvement and some maintenance for say
pest resistance
We could count on weather being stationary but
now this is likely not so.
So we must devote resources to technological
adaptation in maintaining productivity at a spot
Adaptation
Autonomous adaptation actions are undertaken by individuals
and groups in their own best interest.
A substantial degree of adaptation can be observed in any
climate dependent industry; agricultural cropping patterns vary
geographically adapting to local temperature and rainfall
conditions.
Autonomous adaptation is facilitated by depreciation in capital
stocks and obsolescence of technology.
A continual level of investments will take place updating
equipment and practices facilitating autonomous adaptation
The pace of climate change may impose new stresses on this.
Adaptation
These are rival goods where investments in one strategy might
preclude investments in another whether it be an alternative
adaptation or alternative mitigation strategy.
There is also rivalry with traditional production enhancing
investment where large adaptation or mitigation investment
programs preclude productivity enhancing investment.
Additionally there is resource competition where for example
some mitigation strategies require land-use change as do some
adaptation strategies and land is limited plus can be used for
traditional production of food, fiber and ecological goods.
Adaptation over time
Just did a study on share of adaptation versus mitigation
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Ada Invest Stock
50
22
30
22
10
22
90
21
70
21
50
21
30
21
10
21
90
20
70
20
50
20
30
Mit Investment
Total Investmet
20
20
10
Investment (Trillion US dollars)
Adaptaion and Mitigation Investment
Time
Adaptation dominates for first 100 years
Wang, W.W. and B.A. McCarl Temporal Investment on Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation
Agricultural adaptation
Agricultural Climate Sensitivity
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
6)
7)
8)
9)
10)
11)
12)
13)
Greater plant water needs
Greater city water needs
More fresh surface water?
More water in infrequent events
More pests
Altered grass
Less severe winter and cattle/hogs
Poleward crop migrations
Altered water quality
Inundated facilities and lands
Winter access to water transport
Altered research returns
More yield variability
Means to Adapt
Investment to facilitate adaptation
•Research
•Extension
•Capital investment
Ag Adaptation
•Irrigation
•Drought resistant varieties
•Tolerant breeds and varieties
•Crop and livestock mix
•Tree rotation age
•Abandonment
McCarl, B.A., Adaptation Options for Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, A Report to the UNFCCC Secretariat Financial and Technical Support
Division, 2007. http://unfccc.int/files/cooperation_and_support/financial_mechanism/application/pdf/mccarl.pdf
Agricultural Climate Sensitivity
Zilberman, D., X. Liu, D. Roland-Holst And D. Sunding, “The Economics Of Climate Change In Agriculture”
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 9: 365–382, 2004.
Agricultural Adaptation
Analytical approaches
• Observe adaptation to get insights on possibilities
• Observe “adapted agriculture”
• Simulate adaptation
• Structural modeling
Observe adaptation
Literature
• Livestock adaptation in Africa and South
America ( papers from Seo et al.)
• Climate change and animal performance in
the U.S. (Frank et al. 2001; Mader et al.
2009)
• Few empirical studies focused on climatic
conditions and livestock stocking rate.
29
Objectives of this study
• Examine how climatic factors
impact land allocation decisions
between crop and livestock along
with cattle stocking rates
• Examine under climate change,
what are the directions and
magnitudes of likely adaptation
Mu, J.H., and B.A. McCarl, "Adaptation to Climate Change: Land Use and Livestock Management in the U. S",
Presented at the 2011 annual meeting of the Southern Agricultural Economics Association, Corpus Christi, February, 30
2011.
Method
• Assuming the net revenue from and agriculture
j
operation is written as,
 j Uj j
• The probability of choosing land
j use
Pij 
Uij  j
e

Uik k
3
k 1
j  1, 2,3
e
• Fractional Multinomial Logit estimation with
3
P
j 1
ij
1
31
Stocking rate,
individual
animal
performance,
gain per acre,
and net return
per acre.
Source: Redfearn and Bidwell
32
Data
• District-level data for Census years of 1987,
1992, 1997, 2002 and 2007
• Land use for crop and pasture plus total aniaml
population from the Agriculture Census
• Climate data on historic temperature,
precipitation, drought, extreme heat waves,
precipitation intensity and the temperaturehumidity index (THI) from NOAA
• Regional dummies and cattle stocking rate
33
.6
fitted values
.8
1
Land use allocation and climate
.6
0
.2
.8
.4
Temperature and land
use
5
10
precipitation
15
20
.4
0
choice of crop land use
.2
choice of pasture land use
0
choice of other land use
40
50
60
temperatre
choice of crop land
choice of pasture land
70
80
Precipitation and land
use
choice of other land use
34
Projections under climate change
• The third version of Hadley Center
Coupled Model (HadCM3);
• Changes of temperature and precipitation
for the years 2010-2039, 2040-2069 and
2070-2099;
• Three emission SRES scenarios: B1,A1B,
A2
• Holding other variables at mean.
35
Projections under climate change
36
Changes of the probability of land allocation
across regions under climate change
1
Changes of probability of land use
2
pasture
0
crop
-1
Under B1 Scenario
1
2
3
4
5
1.5
pasture
6
7
8
9 10
1 2
regions
3
4
5
6
7
8
9 10
.5
1
2010-2039
2040-2069
2070-2099
crop
-.5
0
Under A1 Scenario
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1
regions
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2010-2039
2040-2069
2070-2099
37
Conclusions
• Observed data suggests stocking rate
and land use adjustments are to be
expected under climate change
• Fractional Multinomial Logit (FMNL)
Model lets us estimate this;
• We expect less crop land and lower
stocking rates under projected climate
change
38
Observe results of adaptation
No time
Mendelsohn
Schlenker
Land value studies
Simulation of adaptation
Simulate adaptation by planting cultivars
that are better adapted to warmer
temperatures, as well as by early planting.
These techniques help to reduce—but not
to counterbalance completely—the yield
reductions simulated under climate
change and no adaptation.
Table 1 Data without Adaptation Data converted to percentage change from Base
cc
cc
hc
hc
Crop
Irrig
neffect
2030 2090 2030 2090
cotton
DRYLAND yld
18
96
32
82
cotton
IRRIG
yld
36 122
56
102
cotton
IRRIG
wuse
-11 107
36
60
corn
DRYLAND yld
19
23
17
34
corn
IRRIG
yld
-1
-2
0
7
corn
IRRIG
wuse
-34 -54 -30
-60
soybeans DRYLAND yld
20
30
34
76
soybeans IRRIG
yld
16
28
17
34
soybeans IRRIG
wuse
0
3 -12
-26
HRSW
DRYLAND yld
15
-4
20
30
HRSW
IRRIG
yld
-10 -18
4
6
HRSW
IRRIG
wuse
-28 -22 -17
-21
Table 2 With Adaptation
Crop
cotton
cotton
cotton
corn
corn
corn
soybeans
soybeans
soybeans
HRSW
HRSW
HRSW
Irrig
DRYLAND
IRRIG
IRRIG
DRYLAND
IRRIG
IRRIG
DRYLAND
IRRIG
IRRIG
DRYLAND
IRRIG
IRRIG
neffect
yld
yld
wuse
yld
yld
wuse
yld
yld
wuse
yld
yld
wuse
cc
cc
hc
hc
2030 2090 2030 2090
18
96
32
82
36 122
56 102
-11 107
36
60
20
24
17
34
1
0
1
9
-33 -55 -32 -60
39
64
49
97
23
33
23
40
18
12
0 -20
20
14
23
36
-1
-6
7
10
-12 -15 -12 -15
Source Data from McCarl, B.A., "Notes on the
National and NCAR Agricultural Climate
Change Effects Assessment", Background
paper for National Climate Change
Assessment Group Report, 1999.
Structural Modeling
Done in conjunction with vulnerability studies
Real issues in models
• Expanding opportunity set
• Crop and livestock mix
• Not putting in attractive alternatives
and getting double whammy
• Cost benefit of adaptation
• Selectively stopping adaptation to
estimate its value
History of McCarl Climate Change Effects Assessments
1987 – Corn Soy, Wheat no adaptation, no irrigation, no CO2
1992 – Corn, Soy, Wheat, no adaptation, irrigation, no CO2
1995 – Corn Soy, Wheat CO2, irrigation calendar adaptation
1999 – Corn, Soy, Wheat, cotton, sorghum, tomato, potato, CO2,
irrigation, calendar adaptation, crop mix shift, livestock,
grass, input usage, water available
2001 -- Corn, Soy, Wheat, cotton, sorghum, tomato, potato, CO2,
irrigation, calendar adaptation, crop mix shift, livestock,
grass, input usage, pest, extreme event, forestry
2010 – above plus 2007 scenarios, risk, crop insurance
Cost continually went down now beneficial.
Structural adaptation
Adaptation in FASOM
Crop mix
Northward migration
AGCRPMIXUP(period,mapcountryreg(countrytouse,agreg),mixtype,crop)
$( (not notincropgroup(crop))
and agregsperiod(period,countrytouse,agreg)
and sum(matchirri(mixtype,irrigstatus),minmixdat(countrytouse,agreg,irrigstatus,crop))
and sum(proxycrop(crop,crop2)$(not sameas(crop,crop2)),1)=0
and minMixValue(countrytouse,agreg,mixtype,crop) gt 0
and ((sameas(mixtype,"total") and
minMixValue(countrytouse,agreg,"total",crop) ge minMixValue(countrytouse,agreg,"irrigated",crop))
or sameas(mixtype,"irrigated"))
and yesag gt 0 and cropmixy(period))..
sum((matchirri(mixtype,irrigstatus))
$minmixdat(countrytouse,agreg,irrigstatus,crop),
AGCRPMIX(period,countrytouse,agreg,irrigstatus,crop))
- 1.005 * sum(crpmixalt, cropmixdata(countrytouse,mixtype,crop,agreg,crpmixalt)
*AGMIXR(period,countrytouse,agreg,mixtype,crpmixalt))
$if not setglobal climate $goto arnd2
*new mixes under climate change
- 1.005 * sum(crpmixalt, cropmixdataclimate(mixtype,crop,agreg,crpmixalt)
*AGMIXR2(period,countrytouse,agreg,mixtype,crpmixalt) )$climadapt
$label arnd2
=l= 0.01 ;
Climate Change Effects and adaptation
Value of Adaptation ($ Million) - Mali
Loss = 105
2
Loss in Mil Dollars
100
6
15
38
80
60
90
102
98
67
Tech
Full
40
20
36% loss recovered
120
0
C Change
Crop Mix
Trade
Adaptations Considered
Butt, T.A., B.A. McCarl, and A.O. Kergna, "Policies For Reducing Agricultural Sector Vulnerability To Climate Change In Mali",
Climate Policy, Volume 5, 583-598, 2006.
Risk of Hunger –
With and Without Variety Adaptation
Mali
Without adaptation
75
Percent of Population
80
69
With adaptation
70
60
49
50
40
42
34
30
20
10
0
Base
HADCM
HADCM: Hadley Coupled Model
CGCM: Canadian Global Coupled Model
CGCM
HADCM
CGCM
Effect of Climate Change on Public Agricultural Research Returns
Scenario A1B
Northeast
Southeast
Central
North Plains
South Plains
Mountains
Pacific
National
Percent increase / reduction
under climate change
2020
2050
2100
1.89
2.35
-3.32
0.65
-0.35
-3.07
-1.75
3.78
-1.41
9.59
6.91
-0.02
-22.32
-8.94
-11.20
10.69
1.35
0.92
13.70
-0.67
0.04
1.37
0.93
-2.58
Some gains some losses
To restore level of productivity requires invest percent increase of
South Plains
National
2020
2050
2100
10
-6
-21
-5
8
15
Cost of planned adaptation
So What Could be done
Adaptation - UNFCCC
Primary Only
Today
BAU
Gain
CC Add
Plus processing
Mitig CC
ADD
CC Add
Mitig CC
ADD
AFF Research
$35,959
$30,075
$3,007
$2,632
$3,007
$2,632
AFF Extension
$6,426
$547
$55
$48
$55
$48
AFF Capital
Formation
$124,658
$118,995
$2,380
$2,082
$9,795
$8,570
Total
$167,043
$149,617
$5,442
$4,762
$12,857
$11,250
So with climate change investment level $5 to 13 billion
per year to adjust
McCarl, B.A., Adaptation Options for Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, A Report to the UNFCCC Secretariat Financial and Technical Support
Division, 2007. http://unfccc.int/files/cooperation_and_support/financial_mechanism/application/pdf/mccarl.pdf
So What Could be done
Adaptation - UNFCCC
Investment cost of adaptation
Always assumed people would just adjust but may need
improves varieties and practices plus additional facilities
like irrigation or land development
Assumes it occurs in 3 quarters
• Research
• Extension
• Capital investment
McCarl, B.A., Adaptation Options for Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, A Report to the
UNFCCC Secretariat Financial and Technical Support Division, 2007.
http://unfccc.int/files/cooperation_and_support/financial_mechanism/application/pdf/mccarl.pdfx
So What Could be done
Adaptation - UNFCCC
Investment cost of adaptation
Three scenarios
• Future population growth but no climate change
• Climate change
• Mitigated climate change
So What Could be done
Adaptation - UNFCCC
Primary Only
Today
BAU
Gain
CC Add
Plus processing
Mitig CC
ADD
CC Add
Mitig CC
ADD
AFF Research
$35,959
$30,075
$3,007
$2,632
$3,007
$2,632
AFF Extension
$6,426
$547
$55
$48
$55
$48
AFF Capital
Formation
$124,658
$118,995
$2,380
$2,082
$9,795
$8,570
Total
$167,043
$149,617
$5,442
$4,762
$12,857
$11,250
So with climate change investment level $5 to 13 billion
per year to adjust
What do we know about Adaptation
Three fundamental forms
Crop/livestock/forest management
Timing likely works (earlier planting, maturity,
Rotation age etc)
Stocking rates
Pest treatment
Can be reaction to positive opportunity
Importing southern patterns
Heat resistant /exploiting systems
crop livestock/forest substitution
Investment
Research and extension
Moving infrastructure
Transport
Some will occur due to obsolescence
What don’t we know about Adaptation
Reaction to
Enhanced CO2
Increased variability
Earlier thaws
Investment needs reaction
wetter and water logging
Extreme events
Pests, invasive species, disease
Basic Resources
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report - Climate Change 2007:
Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, http://www.ipcc.ch/.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report - Climate Change 2007:
Mitigation , http://www.ipcc.ch/.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report - The Scientific Basis,
http://www.ipcc.ch/.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report – Synthesis Report,
http://www.ipcc.ch/.
National Assessment Synthesis Team, US Global Change Research Program , Climate Change
Impacts on the United States:The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change Overview:
2000 http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/nationalassessment/overview.htm
National Assessment Synthesis Team, US Global Change Research Program , Climate Change
Impacts on the United States:The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change Foundation:
2000 http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/nationalassessment/foundation.htm
http://agecon.tamu.edu/faculty/mccarl/papers.htm