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Activity: Climate Change 1 Greenhouse Effect and Greenhouse Gases 2 GREENHOUSE F F E C T Source: IPCC 2007 3 Main Greenhouse Gases Greenhouse Gas Chemical Formula Anthropogenic Sources Atmospheric Lifetime1(years) GWP2 (100 Year Time Horizon) Carbon Dioxide CO2 Fossil-fuel combustion, Land-use conversion, Cement Production ~1001 1 Methane CH4 Fossil fuels, Rice paddies, Waste dumps 121 25 N 2O Fertilizer, Industrial processes, Combustion 1141 298 Tropospheric Ozone O3 Fossil fuel combustion, Industrial emissions, Chemical solvents hours-days N.A. CFC-12 CCL2F2 100 10,900 HCFC-22 CCl2F2 Liquid coolants, Foams Refrigerants 12 1,810 Sulfur Hexaflouride SF6 Dielectric fluid 3,200 22,800 Nitrous Oxide The Global Warming Potential (GWP) indicates the warming effect of a greenhouse gas, while the atmospheric lifetime expresses the total effect of a specific greenhouse gas after taking into account global sink availability. The lifetime indicates how long the gas remains in the atmosphere. Source: http://www.c2es.org/facts-figures/basics/main-ghgs 4 U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions (2012) In 2009, the United States emitted 6.5 billion metric tons of greenhouse gases (CO2E). Source: Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks 1990-2012 (EPA 2014) http://www.c2es.org/facts-figures/us-emissions/gas , http://www.c2es.org/facts-figures/us-emissions/sector 5 Most of the world's GHG emissions come from a relatively small number of countries. The United States, China, and the EU are the three largest emitters. Source: http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/indicators/ghg/global-ghg-emissions.html 6 Temperature and CO2 Trends 7 Source: updated from Karl et al. 2009. http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/our-changing-climate/observedchange 8 Long-term trends in CO2 concentrations and temperature Source: http://www.worldviewofglobalwarming.org/pages/references2.html 9 Human vs. Natural Influences on Climate Source: IPCC, 2007, adapted by USCGRP, 2009. 10 Projections for the Future 11 Emissions Levels Determine Temperature Rises The panel shows results from the most recent generation of climate models (CMIP5) using the most recent emissions pathways (RCPs – Representative Concentration Pathways). The lowest emissions pathway shown here, RCP 2.6, assumes immediate and rapid reductions in emissions and would result in about 2.5°F of warming in this century. The highest pathway, RCP 8.5, roughly similar to a continuation of the current path of global emissions increases, is projected to lead to more than 8°F warming by 2100, with a high-end possibility of more than 11°F. (Data from CMIP3, CMIP5, and NOAA NCDC). http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/ourchanging-climate/future-climate-change 12 Projected change in average annual temperature over the period 2071-2099 (compared to the period 1970-1999) under a low scenario that assumes rapid reductions in emissions and concentrations of heat-trapping gases (RCP 2.6), and a higher scenario that assumes continued increases in emissions (RCP 8.5). Source: NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC, http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/our-changing-climate/future-climate-change . 13 Projected change in average annual precipitation over the period 2071-2099 (compared to the period 1970-1999) under a low scenario that assumes rapid reductions in emissions and concentrations of heat-trapping gasses (RCP 2.6), and a higher scenario that assumes continued increases in emissions (RCP 8.5). Hatched areas indicate confidence that the projected changes are significant and consistent among models. White areas indicate that the changes are not projected to be larger than could be expected from natural variability. In general, northern parts of the U.S. (especially the Northeast and Alaska) are projected to receive more precipitation, while southern parts (especially the Southwest) are projected to receive less. Source: NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC; http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/our-changing-climate/future-climate-change 14 Impacts of Climate Change 15 The frost-free season length, defined as the period between the last occurrence of 32°F in the spring and the first occurrence of 32°F in the fall, has increased in each U.S. region during 1991-2012 relative to 1901-1960. Increases in frost-free season length correspond to similar increases in growing season length. (Figure source: NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC). 16 http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/our-changing-climate/frost-free-season The map shows percent increases in the amount of precipitation falling in very heavy events (defined as the heaviest 1% of all daily events) from 1958 to 2012 for each region of the continental United States. These trends are larger than natural variations for the Northeast, Midwest, Puerto Rico, Southeast, Great Plains, and Alaska. The trends are not larger than natural variations for the Southwest, Hawai‘i, and the Northwest. The changes shown in this figure are calculated from the beginning and end points of the trends for 1958 to 2012. (Figure source: updated from Karl et al. 20091). http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/r eport/our-changing-climate/heavy17 downpours-increasing Estimated, observed, and possible future amounts of global sea level rise from 1800 to 2100, relative to the year 2000. Estimates from proxy data1 (for example, based on sediment records) are shown in red (1800-1890, pink band shows uncertainty), tide gauge data are shown in blue for 1880-2009,2 and satellite observations are shown in green from 1993 to 2012.3 The orange line at right shows the currently projected range of sea level rise of 1 to 4 feet by 2100, which falls within the larger risk-based scenario range. (Figure source: Adapted from Parris et al. 2012 5 with input from NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory. http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/our-changing-climate/sea-level-rise 18 Summer Arctic sea ice has declined dramatically since satellites began measuring it in 1979. The extent of sea ice in September 2012, shown in white in the top figure, was more than 40% below the median for 1979-2000. The graph on the bottom left shows annual variations in September Arctic sea ice extent for 1979-2013. It is also notable that the ice has become much thinner in recent years, so its total volume (bottom right) has declined even more rapidly than the extent. 2 (Figure and data from National Snow and Ice Data Center). http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/our-changingclimate/melting-ice 19