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1 2 3 4 Global Warming The Evidence Potential for change? Can anthropogenic change be separated from natural change? Can the world collectively decide to do something about global carbon dioxide emissions? What causes Global Warming? Addition of greenhouse gases to atmosphere Main culprit is CO2 6 CS Fig. 17.19 7 7 CS Fig. 17.20 8 8 CS Fig. 17.23 99 CS Fig. 17.18 1010 Bubbles in glacial ice preserve air of past centuries: Tell us what CO2 concentrations were like before the industrial revolution Edmonds, 1999 11 Longer records 12 Global Temperatures projected to rise 3 to 9 °F Edmonds, 1999 Consequences? http://www.enviroweb.org/edf/in dex.html 15 15 CS Fig. 17.22 16 16 Historical Data 17 Change in surface temperatures, 1979-1998 Change in free atmosphere (<5 miles) temperatures, 1979-1998 Note: deep red is ~1 °F warmer, deep blue is ~1 °F cooler 18 The debate rages on! Newspaper articles show scientists do not all agree as to whether the planet is currently warming The vast majority of scientists, however, do agree that the planet is warming due to additions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere 19 Natural Climate Change 20 20 Natural Climate Change Cooling of the last 100 million years, warming of the last 20,000 years well documented Short term change (10’s to 1000’s of years) less well documented Short term change less well understood Role of oceans unclear Role of tides (1800 year cycle) just coming into question 21 22 22 The Sulfate “Fingerprint” 23 Best evidence that recent warming is anthropogenic Three years in the 1990’s are the warmest in the Northern Hemisphere, by far, of the last 400 years! From Mann and others, Nature, 1998 24 Where we stand: What we’re pretty What we do know: sure of: Atmospheric CO2 concentrations have Surface temps in risen 50% since the the Northern beginning of the Hemisphere are the industrial revolution highest they’ve With business as been in 400 years usual, CO2 Climate models do concentrations will a good job of continue to rise predicting the CO2 is a strong impact of CO2 rise greenhouse gas What we’re not sure of: Surface temps have risen more in the last 25 years than they would have without CO2 increases 25 Change in Minnesota “Recent research indicates a warming trend in Minnesota. A study of the climate record at Fort Snelling shows an increase of 2.9°F in average annual temperature between the 1860s and 1987, almost three times the worldwide average. Analyses of more than a hundred temperature-depth profiles in North America show that ground latitudes comparable to Minnesota’s indicated ground warming of up to 3.6°F.” From “Playing with Fire, Global Warming in Minnesota” 1999; data from Baker and Skaggs, 1989 26 MN Biomes at risk 27 Change in Lake Superior 28 CS, page 390 29 Edmonds, 1999 Bush Rejection of Kyoto Protocol May 2001 USA Europeans angry 30 CS Fig. 17.23 31 31 FCCC The ultimate objective of the Convention … is to achieve… stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. 32 Edmonds, 1999 Developed and transitional countries 33 Kyoto Protocol: Annex 1 countries reduce emissions by average of 5.2% Edmonds, 1999 34 The End Back 35