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GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND ISLAND COMMUNITIES David J. Keeling Department of Geography and Geology Western Kentucky University Bowling Green, Kentucky American Geographical Society All Material used from copyrighted sources is fair-use for academic purposes only. As we visit the Pacific and Indian Oceans…. Let’s demystify Global Climate Change THE DEBATE….. Political perspectives: AN INCONVENIENT TRUTH or UNSUBSTANTIATED SCIENCE? INTERACTING INFLUENCES PLANETARY CYCLES LONG-TERM CLIMATE OSCILLATIONS CLIMATE CHANGE HUMAN ACTIVITIES ECOLOGY AND ENVIRONMENT EXTRAPLANETARY EFFECTS KEY QUESTION: WHAT IS THE NET HUMAN CONTRIBUTION TO OVERALL CLIMATE CHANGE? THE DEBATE ….. Economic perspectives: CHANGING RESOURCE BASE ---- Water, agriculture, minerals, etc. THE DEBATE ….. Societal perspectives: HOW WILL CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ME ? MY COMMUNITY ? MY SOCIETY ? Cedar Pines near Lake Baikal CLIMATE IMPACTS GEOPOLITICAL PERSPECTIVES The Intelligence Community …… Long-term analysis of “friction zones” that likely will develop because of global climate change. Are we asking the right questions about the right places ??? The Scientists’ Rumsfeldian Dilemma! We know what we don’t know The Scientists’ Rumsfeldian Dilemma! We know what we don’t know We don’t know what we should know The Scientists’ Rumsfeldian Dilemma! We know what we don’t know We don’t know what we should know We haven’t known what we could have known The Scientists’ Rumsfeldian Dilemma! We know what we don’t know We don’t know what we should know We haven’t known what we could have known We know that we don’t know what we need to know The Scientists’ Rumsfeldian Dilemma! We know what we don’t know We don’t know what we should know We haven’t known what we could have known We know that we don’t know what we ought to know Knowing what we do know hasn’t helped us to know enough about what we don’t know CLIMATE CHANGE NOT GLOBAL WARMING! Earth systems are complex – some regions will grow warmer while others will grow colder SCALE, SCALE, SCALE!! Local (micro) SCALE, SCALE, SCALE ! Regional (meso) SCALE, SCALE, SCALE ! GLOBAL (macro) REALLY BIG … Planetary and Solar System Planetary Influences…. Basic Forces: Earth’s Rotation - Pressure Gradient - Coriolis Force Coriolis Force Pressure Gradient Hadley Cells and Global Circulation Patterns Planetary Behavior…. Basic Forces: Orbital Eccentricity years = 100,000 Planetary Behavior…. Basic Forces: Tilt of the Axis (23.5 today) = 41,000 years Planetary Behavior…. Basic Forces: Precession of Spin Axis years = 26,000 Milankovitch’s Orbital Variations Orbital Eccentricity Tilt Wobble PLANETARY CIRCULATION PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION Global Climate Cycles The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) WHAT ARE THE POLICY ISSUES? HUMAN IMPACTS ON CLIMATE CHANGE and CLIMATE CHANGE’S IMPACTS ON HUMANS WHAT ARE THE ISSUES? POLITICAL & SOCIAL POLICY RESPONSES WHAT ARE THE ISSUES? POLITICAL & SOCIAL POLICY RESPONSES CHANGES IN THE PHYSICAL LANDSCAPE WHAT ARE THE ISSUES? POLITICAL & SOCIAL POLICY RESPONSES CHANGES IN THE PHYSICAL LANDSCAPE IMPLICATIONS FOR ALL SPECIES WHAT ARE THE ISSUES? POLITICAL & SOCIAL POLICY RESPONSES CHANGES IN THE PHYSICAL LANDSCAPE IMPLICATIONS FOR ALL SPECIES HUMAN IMPACTS ON CLIMATE CHANGE Human Long-Term Implications? What are the observable fingerprints of global climate change: ► ● Human Long-Term Implications? ► What are the observable fingerprints of global climate change: ● Heat waves and periods of unusually warm weather, along with droughts ● Human Long-Term Implications? ► What are the observable fingerprints of global climate change: ● Heat waves and periods of unusually warm weather, along with droughts ● Ocean warming, sea-level rise, and coastal flooding ● Human Long-Term Implications? ► What are the observable fingerprints of global climate change: ● Heat waves and periods of unusually warm weather, along with droughts ● Ocean warming, sea-level rise, and coastal flooding ● Glaciers melting ● Arctic and Antarctic warming SMALL ISLAND CLIMATE CHANGE CHALLENGES Food Security SMALL ISLAND CLIMATE CHANGE CHALLENGES Food Security Loss of land for agriculture and housing SMALL ISLAND CLIMATE CHANGE CHALLENGES Food Security Loss of land for agriculture and housing Human Health SMALL ISLAND CLIMATE CHANGE CHALLENGES Food Security Loss of land for agriculture and housing Human Health Transportation Changes SMALL ISLAND CLIMATE CHANGE CHALLENGES Food Security Loss of land for agriculture and housing Human Health Transportation Changes Coastal and Indigenous Populations Implications for Island States are Grave Areas such as the Maldives, the Marshall Islands, Tuvalu, and Kiribati may face inundation from sea-level rise Implications for Island States are Grave Areas such as the Maldives, the Marshall Islands, Tuvalu, and Kiribati may face inundation from sea-level rise Many more may face devastation from more intense hurricanes and greater rainfall even in moderate hurricanes Implications for Island States are Grave Areas such as the Maldives, the Marshall Islands, Tuvalu, and Kiribati may face inundation from sea-level rise Many more may face devastation from more intense hurricanes and greater rainfall even in moderate hurricanes Grenada, Haiti, and Cayman Islands damage in 2004 possible harbinger of future INNOVATIVE ADAPTION NEEDED Climate Change and Small Island States Small Island States produce only a tiny fraction of global greenhouse gas emissions Island States are among the most vulnerable to Climate Change Most island nations are dependent on highcost fossil fuels and very expensive electricity A significant number of people don’t have access to electricity, especially in the Pacific Island States are especially suited to utilize modern renewable energy and energy efficiency technologies due to their economic and geographical conditions Harbingers of Global Climate Change What might we expect in coming decades? Spreading disease Earlier spring arrival Plant and animal range shifts and population changes Coral reef bleaching Downpours, heavy snowfalls, and flooding Droughts and fires The systemic nature of climate change impacts is an added challenge Health Impacts Weather-related Mortality Infectious Diseases Air Quality-Respiratory Illnesses Agriculture Impacts Climate Changes Temperature Precipitation Sea Level Rise Crop yields Irrigation demands Forest Impacts Change in forest composition Shift geographic range of forests Forest Health and Productivity Water Resource Impacts Changes in water supply Water quality Increased competition for water Impacts on Coastal Areas Erosion of beaches Inundate coastal lands Costs to defend coastal communities Species and Natural Areas Cultural Resources Shift in ecological zones Loss of habitat and species THANK YOU!!