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METHODOLOGICAL CONSTRAINS AND NEED IN THE AREA OF V&A ASSESSMENT IN THE CENTRAL AMERICAN REGION UNFCCC WORKSHOP ON METHODOLOGIES ON CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION / UNDP-GEF WORKSHOP FOR DEVELOPING AN ADAPTATION POLICY FRAMEWORK MONTREAL. CANADA JUNE 11-14, 2001 Emilio Sempris CATHALAC NPCC-ANAM Rep. of Panama esempris@ cathalac.org THE CENTRAL AMERICAN REGION CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE ADVERSE IMPACTS CLIMATE RELATED IMPACTS IN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN DATE COUNTRY EVENT DEATH ESTIMATED COSTS (US$ million, 1998) 1974 Honduras Hurricane Fifi 7,000 1,331 1982/3 Bolivia, Ecuador, Peru El Niño 0 5,661 1997/98 Bolivia, Colombia, El Niño 600 7,694 Ecuador, Peru 1998 Central America Hurricane Mitch 9,214 6,008 1998 Dominican Republic Hurricane Georges 235 2,193 Cuba Hurricane Georges 6 N/A 1999 Venezuela Landslide 25,000 N/A Fuente: ECLAC, América Latina y El Caribe: El Impacto de los Desastres Naturales en el Desarrollo, 1972-1999, LC/MEX/L.402; OFDA, Venezuela- Floods, Fact Sheet #10, 1/12/ 2000. INSTITUTIONAL ARRAGEMENT WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF THE UNFCCC Panama Costa Rica El Salvador Nicaragua Honduras NCCC Met. Office CCU CCO CCO FINDINGS OF FIRST GENERATION V&A ASSESSMENTS ? (1) • The Region, as a whole, is not adapted to current climate. • Diferentiated vulnerarability to CC adverse impacts at the national and regional level, and within the region, there are populations with greatest risk to be impacted, those coincide with the areas where there is greatest geo-ecosystem, socioeconomic deterioration. • Obsolete Met. and Stats Offices FINDINGS OF FIRST GENERATION V&A ASSESSMENTS ? (2) • There exists problems to idenfy vulnerable regions and population at risk. • There are great uncertainties attached to the results of the assessment due to the avaliability and quality of climate system data. • There is a research need in terms of V&A integrated assessment. • Political willingness & stability issues that makes the region even more vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change. WHAT IS NEEDED ? (1) • Standardization of climate change science ( e.i., Methodologies and benkmarks to select vulnerable region and populations at risk). • Improvement of climate system data (not only T & P). • Shorter term integrated impact assessments and adaptation options should be developed. • Improvement in risk communication capacity. • Establishment formal models for assessing uncertainties. KEY ISSUES FOR THE NEXT GENERATION OF V&A ASSESSMENTS (1) • proactive vs reactive adaptation responses The second generation methodologies should not look so hard into the future, so they do not fall too behind in the present • Stakeholders participation • V&A integrated assessment • Costing impacts • Insurance • Funding REGIONAL IMPACTS ON QUANTITY AND QUALITY OF WATER RESOURCES ANTROPHOGENIC CAUSES ? ANTHROPIC CAUSES WATER WITHOUT SANITARY THREATMENT Water without sanitation treatment VECTORS BREEDING Vector breading sites SITES (1) (5) Artificial impoundments, ponds, Artificial reservoirs impoundment Organic contaminant (2) (5) ORGANIC CONTAMINANTS H2O WATER RESOURCES Storms & Hurricanes STORMS FLOODS FLOODS (3) (3) Direct harmful Direct harmful effects effects NATURAL CAUSES CLIMATE RELATED CAUSES ? NON ORGANIC Non-organic CONTAMINANTS contaminants (2) (5) Waste waters, excreta in rivers, streams, ground Waste waters, waters, impoundments, Panama Bay. pollution in rivers, etc. DROUGHTS Droughts (3) (4) Indirect effects by Indirect effects absence REGIONAL STAKEHOLDERS FOR WATER RESOURCES SECTOR IN THE REGION WATER RESOURCES IMWR IRRIGATION NAVIGATION TOURISM HYDROPOWER AQUACULTURE RECREATION SUPPLY AND SANITATION KEY ISSUES FOR THE NEXT GENERATION OF V&A ASSESSMENTS (2) • Costing impacts • Insurance • Funding METHODOLOGICAL CONSTRAINS AND NEEDS IN THE AREA OF V&A ASSESSMENT IN THE CENTRAL AMERICAN REGION UNFCCC WORKSHOP ON METHODOLOGIES ON CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION / UNDP-GEF WORKSHOP FOR DEVELOPING AN ADAPTATION POLICY FRAMEWORK MONTREAL. CANADA JUNE 11-14, 2001 Emilio Sempris CATHALAC NPCC-ANAM Rep. of Panama esempris@ cathalac.org