* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Download Climate Change – Can science teachers play a part
German Climate Action Plan 2050 wikipedia , lookup
Myron Ebell wikipedia , lookup
Instrumental temperature record wikipedia , lookup
Global warming hiatus wikipedia , lookup
Soon and Baliunas controversy wikipedia , lookup
Climate resilience wikipedia , lookup
Mitigation of global warming in Australia wikipedia , lookup
2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on human health wikipedia , lookup
Climate sensitivity wikipedia , lookup
General circulation model wikipedia , lookup
Michael E. Mann wikipedia , lookup
ExxonMobil climate change controversy wikipedia , lookup
Global warming controversy wikipedia , lookup
Climate change adaptation wikipedia , lookup
Economics of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climatic Research Unit email controversy wikipedia , lookup
Global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate engineering wikipedia , lookup
Climate governance wikipedia , lookup
Heaven and Earth (book) wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and agriculture wikipedia , lookup
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change wikipedia , lookup
Climate change feedback wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in Tuvalu wikipedia , lookup
Climate change denial wikipedia , lookup
Citizens' Climate Lobby wikipedia , lookup
Climatic Research Unit documents wikipedia , lookup
Solar radiation management wikipedia , lookup
Fred Singer wikipedia , lookup
Politics of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Attribution of recent climate change wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in the United States wikipedia , lookup
Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on humans wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and poverty wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on Australia wikipedia , lookup
Media coverage of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Business action on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Public opinion on global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate change, industry and society wikipedia , lookup
Scientific opinion on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Surveys of scientists' views on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Climate Change – Could Science Teachers have a role? Keith Burrows AIP Education Committee (Vic) Physics Conference Feb 2009 YES ! Keith Burrows AIP Education Committee (Vic) Physics Conference Feb 2009 Why? • Climate change is the most significant threat human civilization has ever faced. • In order to appreciate this, at least some understanding of the science of climate change is required. • A huge public education campaign is needed. • (as distinct from the mis-education campaign prevalent in some parts of the media... Herald Sun 19 Dec 2008 Why? • Role of scientists in the climate debate • “These stark conclusions about the threat posed by global climate change and implications for fossil fuel use are not yet appreciated by essential governing bodies … In our view, there is an acute need for science to inform society about the costs of failure to address global warming, because of a fundamental difference between the threat posed by climate change and most prior global threats.” J Hansen et al (2007) Why? • The conclusion from: • Dangerous human-made interference with climate: a GISS modelE study J Hansen et al • In Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 7, 2287–2312, 2007 www.atmos-chem-phys.net/7/2287/2007/ • Authors from: • NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Columbia University Earth Institute, Sigma Space Partners LLC, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University, Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, Clean Air Task Force, Boston, Goddard Space Flight Center, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, Department of Geology, Yale University, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Argonne National Laboratory. Why? • Dealing with climate change will require massive adjustments to the way we do things. • Most of these adjustments are based on science, so... • people need to understand at least the basic science. Why US? • Science teachers are one of the few groups in the community who are: • Reasonably aware of the science. • Able to communicate it to a general audience. Why US? • Climate scientists are generally: • Too busy doing their science. • Not necessarily good at communicating with the lay public. Why US? If we don’t do it, who else will? Why US? • Other groups talking about climate change: • The media – but usually trying to make a ‘debate’ out of it. 5 out of 6 support Bolt’s denier-ism Why US? • Other groups talking about climate change: • ‘Activists’ – often not their real agenda. Why US? • Other groups talking about climate change: • ‘Concerned citizens’ – well intentioned, often not well informed. Why US? • There is a huge lack of knowledge out there! • Only with an understanding of the basic science will the community make the right decisions about these extremely important matters: • the link between CO2 emissions and CC • energy and greenhouse emissions • ways to reduce CO2 emissions But is the science “settled”? • Science is NEVER “settled”. • That climate change is real and largely human caused is as about as settled as science gets. • There is debate about the consequences, but the risk of inaction could be catastrophic. • Many of the world’s major scientific bodies have issued statements urging strong immediate action and warning of dangerous consequences if not. • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • Some scientific bodies who have issued statements stressing the need for action on climate change USA: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) American Institute of Physics National Research Council Woods Hole Research Center Union of Concerned Scientists Federal Climate Change Science Program NASA's Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) American Geophysical Union Geological Society of America American Chemical Society - (world's largest scientific organization) Federal Climate Change Science Program - commissioned by Bush! American Association of State Climatologists US Geological Survey Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Pew Center on Climate Change Some scientific bodies who have issued statements stressing the need for action on climate change • Rest of World: • UN Project on Climate Variability and Predictability • United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) • United Nations Environment Program • World Meteorological Organization • International Council on Science • The Royal Society (UK) • Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society (CMOS) • Geological Society of London • The Australian Academy of Sciences • The Institution of Engineers Australia • The Australian Meteorological And Oceanographic Society Some scientific bodies who have issued statements stressing the need for action on climate change • A number of groups of scientific organisations have issued ‘Joint Statements’ for example... Since 2005, the Academies of Science for the G8+5 countries have called on world leaders to limit the threat of climate change. We have advised prompt action to deal with the causes of climate change and cautioned that some climate impacts are inevitable. However, progress in reducing global greenhouse gas emission has been slow… Key vulnerabilities include water resources, food supply, health, coastal settlements and some ecosystems (particularly arctic, tundra, alpine, and coral reef). The most sensitive regions are likely to include the Arctic, Africa, small islands and the densely populated Asian mega-deltas. Adaptation Climate change is a pressing issue for today. Action on adaptation is needed now and failure to respond poses a significant risk. Low Carbon Society The development of a low carbon society means not merely the replacement of energy sources with less carbon intensive ones, but energy conservation as well. Sustainable consumption requires fundamental changes in all sectors and levels of society, including energy-saving housing, low-carbon transportation and more efficient industrial processes. Conclusions • Call on G8+5 governments …CCS demonstration plants. • …improving predictive and adaptive capacities … supporting the developing world … • Take appropriate economic and policy measures to accelerate transition to a low carbon society …changes in individual and national behaviour. • Promote science and technology cooperation, innovation and leapfrogging, … • Urge governments to support research on greenhouse gas reduction technologies and climate change impacts. We recognise IPCC as the world’s most reliable source of information on climate change and its causes,… Despite increasing consensus on the science underpinning predictions of global climate change, doubts have been expressed … We do not consider such doubts justified. ...support the IPCC’s conclusion that it is at least 90% certain that temperatures will continue to rise, with average global surface temperature projected to increase by between 1.4 and 5.8oC above 1990 levels by 2100. This increase will be accompanied by rising sea levels, more intense precipitation events in some countries, increased risk of drought in others, and adverse effects on agriculture, health and water resources. We urge everyone - individuals, businesses and governments - to take prompt action to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases. The balance of the scientific evidence demands effective steps now to avert damaging changes to the earth’s climate. Carbon dioxide concentration is rising mostly as a result of fossil-fuel burning and partly from clearing of vegetation; about 50% of the enhanced emissions remain in the atmosphere, … In the last 50 years atmospheric CO2 concentration has been increasing at a rate much faster than any rates observed in the geological record of the past several thousand years. Global… temperatures are rising at a rapid rate to values higher than at any time in the last 400 (and probably in the last 1000) years. Once introduced in the atmosphere, carbon dioxide remains for at least a few hundred years and implies a lengthy guarantee of sustained future warming. …there is adequate evidence from observations and interpretations of climate simulations to conclude that the atmosphere, ocean, and land surface are warming; that humans have significantly contributed to this change; and that further climate change will continue to have important impacts on human societies, on economies, on ecosystems, and on wildlife through the 21st century and beyond. … convergence among emission scenarios and model results suggest strongly that increasing air temperatures will reduce snowpack, shift snowmelt timing, reduce crop production and rangeland fertility, and cause continued melting of the ice caps and sea level rise… Policy choices in the near future will determine the extent of the impacts of climate change. Policy decisions are seldom made in a context of absolute certainty. Some continued climate change is inevitable, and the policy debate should also consider the best ways to adapt to climate change. Prudence dictates extreme care in managing our relationship with the only planet known to be capable of sustaining human life. “When climate scientists like me explain to people what we do for a living we are increasingly asked whether we "believe in climate change". Quite simply it is not a matter of belief. Our concerns about climate change arise from the scientific evidence that humanity's activities are leading to changes in our climate. The scientific evidence is overwhelming.” • Dr Vicky Pope is the head of climate change advice at the Met Office Hadley Centre guardian.co.uk, Wed 11 February 2009 The science is “settled” but... • Are the public convinced? Obviously not! • The ‘deniers’ in the media have a strong presence... The science is “settled” but... • “Satellite data indicates the southern hemisphere has recorded no warming” • “When will the biggest scientific fraud in history fall apart?” • “The [CPRS] is a non-solution to a non-problem” (Bob Carter) • “In the last Ice Age the CO2 levels were 4000 ppm” • “heat travels from hot to cold so the colder CO2 cannot warm the surface below” • “The telling thing about the global warming faith is that it’s preached almost entirely by hypocrites” (AB) The science is “settled” but... • Ironically, the deniers get mileage from countering exaggerated claims by activists. • It is important to stress the trend within a high natural variability The science is “settled” but... • The actual SCIENCE has almost no presence in the media. • Maybe it’s a bit complicated... See notes below for explanation See notes below for explanation See notes below for explanation See notes below for explanation See notes below for explanation The science is “settled” but... • The actual SCIENCE has almost no presence in the media. • Consequently most people just – “don’t know” – “aren’t convinced” – “it’s debatable” – “don’t want to know” The science is “settled” but... • • • • So – While there are a few scientific ‘sceptics’... a lot of non-scientific ‘deniers’ ... not to mention an army of vested interest lobbyists ... • the vast majority of climate scientists are agreed – humans are causing dangerous CC. The science is “settled” but... • Would you get on this aeroplane if 9 out of 10 engineers said there were dangerous cracks in the wings and 1 said they didn’t matter? The science is “settled” but... • There is a serious mismatch between the science and community understanding • As Hansen said “there is an acute need for science to inform society about the costs of failure to address global warming” • This is a problem unlike any event ever before encountered in human history The science is “settled” but... • This is a problem unlike any event ever before encountered in human history: 1. By the time the problem is ‘obvious’ it will be way too late to avoid catastrophic change 2. We have always felt there was no way we could effect the whole Earth system 3. It’s comprehension requires some basic understanding of science (rather than law or economics!) The science is “settled” but... • This is a problem unlike any ever before encountered in human history: 1. By the time the problem is ‘obvious’ it will be way too late to avoid catastrophic change 2. We have always felt there was no way we could effect the whole Earth system 3. It’s comprehension requires some basic understanding of science. 4. The changes needed require a BIG RETHINK of the way we do things (But definitely NOT ‘turning back the clock’) The science is “settled” but... • Consequently, the urgency of the message does not seem to be getting through. • It needs the backing of a large group of people with some sort of credibility – science teachers maybe? The science is “settled” but... • As science teachers we could be the best link between the scientists and the public. – and the politicians? What can we do? • Educate other teachers – how? • Educate the public – talk to local parent groups, write for local papers ... • Organise a statement signed by science teachers? • Talk to politicians – as individuals – as teacher organisations – on behalf of our students. (With our students?) • ?? Download these presentations from: Download these presentations from: