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International Climate Policy Post-2012
Quantitative Tools and Negotiating Capacity
A Review of WRI’s Climate Analysis
Indicator Tool (CAIT)
Beijing, China
February, 2006
Jonathan Pershing
Climate, Energy and Pollution Program
World Resources Institute
http://www.wri.org
WRI
What is CAIT?
WRI
• A web-based information and analysis tool on global
climate change developed by The World Resources
Institute (WRI).
• CAIT includes:
– Data on all greenhouse gases (GHGs) and sources, plus
other data and indicators relevant to climate change policy
– Data for 186 countries (most UNFCCC Parties) and regions
– Analysis tools (e.g., trend, sector, or gas analysis)
WRI
http://cait.wri.org
WRI
What is CAIT? (2)
• Purposes
– Promote greater access to information
– Support decision-making processes and help build capacity
– Provide common platform for data and analysis
• Policy neutral
• Available free to the public at http://cait.wri.org
WRI
Acknowledgements
• Data providers
–
–
–
–
–
CDIAC
RIVM
IPCC
IEA
World Bank
–
–
–
–
–
UNDP
U.S. EPA
U.S. EIA
UNFCCC
Houghton
• Funding providers
• U.S. EPA, Government of Norway, Wallace Global
Fund, Prospect Hill Foundation
WRI
Data – Policy Linkage
Working assumptions:
– Information is the first step to solving any problem
– Better information → better decisions
– “Delivery system” matters
1. CAIT
2. Navigating the Numbers report
WRI
Who is Using CAIT?
By Sector
40%
30%
35%
35%
25%
30%
25%
24%
23%
20%
19%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Governmental
4%
Academia
Latin
America
Asia
US +
Canada
Europe
7%
Africa &
Mid. East
10%
0%
28%
Private Sector
& Media
By Country/Region
NGO/Research
~5000 total users from 108 countries, December 2003 to present
WRI
Using CAIT
CAIT Screens
WRI
Rank by national
emissions total
WRI
Bottom of the ranking:
186 countries
WRI
Rank by per
Capita emissions
WRI
Choice of gases
WRI
Other indicators
Analyses possible
Customize Displays
WRI
WRI
Choosing Display Regions
WRI
WRI
WRI
WRI
Vulnerability and Adaptation
WRI
Some
CAIT
Results
WRI
Policy-Relevant Implications
•
•
•
•
•
Global trends
Big emitters
Emission caps and developing countries
Formulaic approaches to commitments
Sectoral cooperation
WRI
Projected Future GHG Emissions Growth
% Percent change from 2000
WRI
Policy-Relevant Implications
• Global trends
• Big emitters
• Emission caps and developing countries
• Formulaic approaches to commitments
• Sectoral cooperation
WRI
Largest Emitters: Developed & Developing
WRI
Policy-Relevant Conclusions
• Global trends
• Big emitters
• Emission caps and developing countries
• Formulaic approaches to commitments
• Sectoral cooperation
WRI
Fixed targets: challenging in the context of massive uncertainty
Projected CO2 Emissions Growth to 2025
WRI
Policy-Relevant Conclusions
• Global trends
• Big emitters
• Emission caps and developing countries
• Formulaic approaches to commitments
• Sectoral cooperation
WRI
Historical Contributions: Major Data Constraints
Cumulative CO2 Emissions, Comparison of Different Time Periods
WRI
Emissions per Capita: Consensus?
GHG Emissions per Capita
WRI
Fuel mix affects CO2 emissions
Electric Power Sector
WRI
Policy-Relevant Conclusions
•
•
•
•
Global trends
Big emitters
Emission caps and developing countries
Formulaic approaches to commitments
• Sectoral cooperation
WRI
GHG Flow Diagram: Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions
WRI
International Sectoral Cooperation
• Different “forms” of sectoral cooperation
• How important is the sector? [% global GHGs]
• Underlying rationale for sectoral cooperation
– Promote participation
– Avoid “leakage”
– Promote even regulatory playing field (competitiveness)
• Options for international cooperation
WRI
Conclusions
• Global trends are in the wrong direction
• Address GHGs in context of big emitting
countries and sectors
– Int’l cooperation, investment, technology
• No single indicator tells a complete story
• Data does not point directly toward a solution
– Nature and scale of problem
– Diverse national circumstances
WRI
Using CAIT
http://cait.wri.org
WRI