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Adapting to a Changing Climate:
A Watershed Perspective
Climate Change Forum
April 15, 2013
Paul Lehman
Mississippi Valley Conservation
Adaptation

The science is clear. It shows us that climate change is
an issue of today – not one of tomorrow

Climate change is an economic issue, a social issue,
and an environmental issue

We reduce greenhouse gas emissions to address global
causes, we adapt to address local consequences

Adaptation involves all levels of government, business,
industry, community groups and individuals

Local leadership and action is critical
City of Peterborough
– July 2004
Fall River at Outlet of
Sharbot Lake
– August 2012
Mississippi River Water Management Structures
MVC - Climate Change Adaptation Work
 Water Resources, Fish and Fisheries: Sensitivities,
Impacts and Adaptation to a Changing Climate - 2007
 Collaborative study with Queen’s University
 Weathering the Change Public Information Workshops - 2007
 Climate Change Effects On Reservoir Operation Policies In
The Mississippi Valley Watershed - 2011
 Partnership through Guelph University
Risk Assessment

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Preliminary analysis, problem definition/scoping
Quantify projected changes in precipitation and
temperature
Model hydrologic response
Assess reservoir performance and capacity for
satisfying constraints and objectives
Assess secondary impacts (fisheries/water
quality)
Water Resource Impact Assessment


A2 emissions scenario – CGCM II climate model
downscaled to Mississippi R. watershed
 temperature
 precipitation
Four periods modeled
 Base period 1974 – 2002
 Future periods (2010 – 2039, 2040 – 2069,
2070 – 2099)
Mean Annual Water Budget
Mississippi River Watershed
1000
900
Water Budget (mm)
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Current
2010-2039
2040-2069
Climate Period
Precipitation
Runoff
Evapotranspiration
2070-2099
Mean Annual Flow Comparison
Minimum Streamflow objective
Highly variable
flows
over
Implications
fall/winter
 Potential risks:

Existing
achieving summer
recreation targets
– water supply targets
– shoreline damage
– unsafe ice conditions
–
Stream flow
Reservoir target
Stream flow
Reservoir target
Building Local Adaptation Capacity
 Climate Change Information Workshops
 Three meetings held in 2012
 Local municipalities and agencies
 2012 Drought Workshop – 2013
 Multiple speaking engagements
 Engage local municipalities and agencies in collaborating on
vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning
 Uncertainty on how to proceed
 Lack of political direction
 Tie-in with municipal priorities
Vulnerability Assessment
 Discussions between MNR, MVC and RVCA to consider a pilot
application of the “Practitioner’s Guide to Climate Change
Adaptation in Ontario’s Ecosystems to Mississippi-Rideau area
 Access to a suite of related information, research reports
 Case history experience from the Lake Simcoe
and Clay Belt exercises
 Assistance in designing a strategy
process tailored to Mississippi-Rideau
with improvements based on lessoned learned
 A provincial and national network of experts,
researchers, climate scientists
 Potential funding (unconfirmed)
Mississippi – Rideau Watersheds
Potential Vulnerability Themes for
Mississippi – Rideau Watershed Area
Emergency Preparedness
Invasive Species
Outdoor Recreation and Tourism
Species at Risk
Hydrology/Water levels
Fisheries
Organizational Capacity
Aquatic Habitat
Wildlife
Forest Fire/disturbance
Forest Cover and Terrestrial
Habitat
Human Health
Water Power
Others?
Thank you
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Mississippi Valley Conservation
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http://www.mvc.on.ca/
[email protected]